THE QUEENSLAND ELECTION 1995

Transcription

1 ELECTRONIC VERSION THE QUEENSLAND ELECTION 1995 RESEARCH BULLETIN NO 1/95 ANTONY GREEN QUEENSLAND PARLIAMENTARY LIBRARY Publications and Resources Section BRISBANE October 1995 ISSN X ISBN

2 Queensland Parliamentary Library, 1995 Copyright protects this publication. Except for purposes permitted by the Copyright Act 1968, reproduction by whatever means is prohibited, other than by Members of the Queensland Parliament in the course of their official duties, without the prior written permission of the Parliamentary Librarian, Queensland Parliamentary Library. Inquiries should be addressed to: Director, Publications & Resources, Queensland Parliamentary Library, Parliament House, George Street, Brisbane. Director: Ms Mary Seefried.

3 FOREWORD This Research Bulletin is the first of a new series published by the Parliamentary Library. The Series replaces our two former titles, Background Information Briefs and Information Kits, and provides a single format of research and review on topics of current interest to members. As was the case with previous publications, Research Bulletins will be written by Library staff although occasionally the Library will specifically commission papers by outside authors. We are pleased that wellknown ABC political commentator Antony Green has been able to produce the first paper in the new series on a topic of some interest to all players in the Queensland political scene. We welcome comment and suggestions from Members as to topics they would like to see covered in the Series. Nick Bannenberg Parliamentary Library 19 October 1995

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5 CONTENTS Introduction...1 State-wide Totals...3 Summary of First Preference Votes by Electorate...4 Summary of Percentage Vote by Electorate...6 Detailed Results by Electorate...9 Summary of Two-Party Preferred Results by Electorate...25 Electorates Ranked by Two-Party Preferred Vote...27 Electorates Ranked by Two-Party Preferred Swing...28 Electorates Ranked by Pre-Election Margin...29 Two-Party Preferred Summary by Electorate Party Status...30 Regional Summaries...31 By-elections

6 The Author Antony Green is Election Analyst with ABC-TV, and has worked for the ABC on every state and Federal election coverage since 1989, including the last three Queensland elections. He also writes regularly on electoral matters for the Sydney Morning Herald. Antony studied at Sydney University, and holds a Bachelor of Science in mathematics and computing, and a Bachelor of Economics with Honours in politics. Antony has produced a number of publications for the NSW Parliamentary Library, including "NSW Elections 1984 to 1991: A Comparative Analysis", "1991 Legislative Assembly Election: Estimated Two-Candidate Preferred Results by Polling Place", "Electing the NSW Legislative Council 1978 to 1995: Past Results and Future Prospects", and "NSW Elections 1995". He is currently working on a background paper for the Queensland Parliamentary Library comparing the results of the four Queensland elections since Acknowledgments This publication would not be possible without the help of Queensland Electoral Commissioner, Mr Des O'Shea, and the staff of the Electoral Commission Queensland. In particular I would like to thank Dr Glenn Rhodes, Manager Research and Education. I would also like to express my appreciation for the continuing assistance of Mary Seefried from the Queensland Parliamentary Library. While all figures are derived from the published results provided by the Electoral Commission, all calculations of percentages and swings, totalling of votes and analysis of regional votes and trends are the responsibility of the author.

7 INTRODUCTION This paper contains a summary of the results of the 15 July 1995 election for the Queensland Legislative Assembly. It contains details of primary and two-party preferred results for each electoral district, as well as summaries of two-party preferred results and regional results. The layout of the results in each individual electorate is explained in the following paragraphs: : The votes shown for each candidate are the total primary votes received. Percentage votes are calculated as a percentage of the formal vote for each electorate. Swing is calculated by subtracting the percentage vote received by a party at the 1992 election from the percentage received in Where the parties contesting the district differ from 1992, ghost candidates indicated by "..." have been included representing candidates not contesting the 1995 election. As a result, all primary swings add to zero, subject to rounding errors. : Represents the two-candidate preferred count after the final distribution of preferences in an electorate. All votes which did not indicate a preference to the two remaining candidates are included in the total listed as Exhausted. Two-candidate preferred percentages are calculated by dividing the two-candidate preferred vote by the votes remaining in the count, that is the formal votes minus the total exhausted votes. Two-candidate preferred swings are shown compared to the 1992 election. Where the party composition of the final two candidates differs from 1992 (eg Surfers Paradise), a ghost candidate appears, and three swing figures are shown. In 1992, there were no Labor candidates in Callide or Surfers Paradise, and no Liberal or National candidate in the final count in Gladstone. In each case, a two-party preferred result has been estimated. Note that the estimates used differ from those used in the Electoral Commission's published results. Readers may make their own decision on the more appropriate estimates. At the 1992 election, only three political parties were officially recognised by the Electoral Commission, the Labor, National and Liberal parties. However, four other unofficial parties nominated candidates, the Australian Democrats, the Greens, the Confederate Action Party and the Indigenous Peoples Party. The results in each electorate have been prepared taking into account these unofficial parties from At the 1995 election, the Australian Democrats nominated 32 candidates, but only 21 were registered with the Electoral Commission as Democrats, the other 11 appearing on ballot papers as Independents. In the detailed results by electorate, the 11 Independent Democrats have been indicated as '(DEM)'. On page 3, two state-wide total vote tables have been provided. The first table calculates percentages and swings based on parties and candidates officially recognised by the Electoral Commission. The second table provides the same results, but taking account of non-recognised parties in 1992, and the unofficial Democrats in All figures are based on information provided by the Electoral Commission Queensland. However, responsibility for all calculations and omissions is taken by the author. 1

8 Symbols.. Nil or rounded to zero * Sitting Member... 'Ghost' candidate, where party contesting in 1992 was absent in 1995 Party Abbreviations ALP Labor Party CAP Confederate Action Party DEM Australian Democrats (Officially endorsed) (DEM) Australian Democrats (Unofficial) GRN Greens IND Independents IPP Indigenous Peoples Party LIB Liberal Party NAT National Party OTH Others 2

9 STATE-WIDE TOTALS (Table 1 contains the official totals provided by the Electoral Commission. Table 2 re-calculates the results to include parties and candidates not officially recognised by the Electoral Commission.) Table 1 ENROLLED Candi- Change Seats Party dates on 1992 Won Votes % Vote Swing Labor Party National Party Liberal Party Australian Democrats Greens Confederate Action Party Independents Formal Votes Informal Total Votes / Turnout Table 2 ENROLLED Candi- Change Seats Party dates on 1992 Won Votes % Vote Swing Labor Party National Party Liberal Party Australian Democrats (All) Greens Confederate Action Party Independents Indigenous Peoples Party Formal Votes Informal Total Votes / Turnout Seats changing hands Liberal Party gains from Labor National Party gains from Labor Independent gains from Labor Barron River Greenslopes Mansfield Mount Ommaney Springwood Albert Mulgrave Redlands Gladstone 3

10 LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY : SUMMARY OF FIRST PREFERENCE VOTES BY ELECTORATE Electoral First Preference Votes Informal Total District ALP NAT LIB DEM GRN Other Votes Votes Roll Albert Archerfield Ashgrove Aspley Barambah Barron River Beaudesert Brisbane Central Broadwater Bulimba Bundaberg Bundamba Burdekin Burleigh Burnett Caboolture Cairns Callide Caloundra Capalaba Charters Towers Chatsworth Chermside Clayfield Cleveland Cook Crows Nest Cunningham Currumbin Everton Ferny Grove Fitzroy Gladstone Greenslopes Gregory Gympie Hervey Bay Hinchinbrook Inala Indooroopilly Ipswich Ipswich West Kallangur Kedron Keppel Kurwongbah Lockyer Logan Lytton Mackay Mansfield Maroochydore Maryborough Merrimac Mirani Moggill Mooloolah Mt Coot-tha

11 LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY : SUMMARY OF FIRST PREFERENCE VOTES BY ELECTORATE Electoral First Preference Votes Informal Total District ALP NAT LIB DEM GRN Other Votes Votes Roll Mt Gravatt Mt Isa Mt Ommaney Mulgrave Mundingburra Murrumba Nerang Nicklin Noosa Nudgee Redcliffe Redlands Rockhampton Sandgate South Brisbane Southport Springwood Sunnybank Surfers Paradise Tablelands Thuringowa Toowoomba North Toowoomba South Townsville Warrego Warwick Waterford Western Downs Whitsunday Woodridge Yeronga TOTAL

12 LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY : SUMMARY OF PERCENTAGE VOTE BY ELECTORATE Electoral Percentage of First Preference Votes Informal District ALP NAT LIB DEM GRN Other Votes Turnout Albert Archerfield Ashgrove Aspley Barambah Barron River Beaudesert Brisbane Central Broadwater Bulimba Bundaberg Bundamba Burdekin Burleigh Burnett Caboolture Cairns Callide Caloundra Capalaba Charters Towers Chatsworth Chermside Clayfield Cleveland Cook Crows Nest Cunningham Currumbin Everton Ferny Grove Fitzroy Gladstone Greenslopes Gregory Gympie Hervey Bay Hinchinbrook Inala Indooroopilly Ipswich Ipswich West Kallangur Kedron Keppel Kurwongbah Lockyer Logan Lytton Mackay Mansfield Maroochydore Maryborough Merrimac

13 LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY : SUMMARY OF PERCENTAGE VOTE BY ELECTORATE Electoral Percentage of First Preference Votes Informal District ALP NAT LIB DEM GRN Other Votes Turnout Mirani Moggill Mooloolah Mt Coot-tha Mt Gravatt Mt Isa Mt Ommaney Mulgrave Mundingburra Murrumba Nerang Nicklin Noosa Nudgee Redcliffe Redlands Rockhampton Sandgate South Brisbane Southport Springwood Sunnybank Surfers Paradise Tablelands Thuringowa Toowoomba North Toowoomba South Townsville Warrego Warwick Waterford Western Downs Whitsunday Woodridge Yeronga TOTAL

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15 DETAILED RESULTS BY ELECTORATE Aspley Roll Albert Roll Lucht (DEM) Szczerbanik * ALP O'Connor IND Heck GRN Baumann NAT LIB Szczerbanik * ALP Baumann NAT Exhausted 1014 Formal Informal Total Archerfield Roll Low LIB Ardill * ALP Low LIB Ardill * ALP Formal Informal Total Ashgrove Roll Rowell LIB Sargent IND Fouras * ALP Brand IND Talty (DEM) NAT Rowell LIB Fouras * ALP Exhausted 458 Formal Informal Total Price DEM Gehrmann IND Goss * LIB Jarrett ALP NAT Goss * LIB Jarrett ALP Exhausted 315 Formal Informal Total Barambah Roll Reimers CAP Perrett * NAT Zackeresen ALP LIB IND Perrett * NAT Zackeresen ALP Exhausted 228 Formal Informal Total Barron River Roll Dimitriou IND Clark * ALP Nielsen GRN Warwick LIB Crew NAT Hoffman IND Watson DEM Clark * ALP Warwick LIB Crew NAT Exhausted 1345 Formal Informal Total

16 Bulimba Roll Beaudesert Roll Hickman DEM Taylor ALP Lingard * NAT LIB Taylor ALP Lingard * NAT Exhausted 302 Formal Informal Total Brisbane Central Roll Aldworth LIB McGhie IND Begg IND Nielsen GRN Beattie * ALP IND Aldworth LIB Beattie * ALP Exhausted 578 Formal Informal Total Broadwater Roll Grice * NAT Brown ALP LIB IND Grice * NAT Brown ALP Formal Informal Total Drewett LIB Purcell * ALP Wilson GRN Drewett LIB Purcell * ALP Exhausted 426 Formal Informal Total Bundaberg Roll Campbell * ALP McDuff NAT LIB IND Campbell * ALP McDuff NAT Formal Informal Total Bundamba Roll Stephens LIB Gibbs * ALP Ranizowski IND IND Stephens LIB Gibbs * ALP IND Exhausted 725 Formal Informal Total

17 Burdekin Roll Hill ALP Caldwell IND Stoneman * NAT LIB Hill ALP Stoneman * NAT Exhausted 221 Formal Informal Total Burleigh Roll Whillans ALP Gamin * NAT Norman-Hicks (DEM) LIB IND Whillans ALP Gamin * NAT Exhausted 356 Formal Informal Total Burnett Roll Slack * NAT Woods ALP CAP IND Slack * NAT Woods ALP Formal Informal Total Caboolture Roll Sullivan * ALP Lamb GRN Drewett DEM Newton NAT LIB IND Sullivan * ALP Newton NAT Exhausted 446 Formal Informal Total Cairns Roll Thompson LIB Broomhall DEM De Lacy * ALP Daly GRN NAT Thompson LIB De Lacy * ALP Exhausted 504 Formal Informal Total Callide Roll McCauley * NAT May CAP McGill ALP IND McCauley * NAT McGill ALP IND Exhausted 133 Formal Informal Total

18 Caloundra Roll Reckenberg DEM Doring IND Wilson ALP Sheldon * LIB NAT Wilson ALP Sheldon * LIB Exhausted 336 Formal Informal Total Chatsworth Roll Martin LIB Mackenroth * ALP Ousby CAP NAT GRN Martin LIB Mackenroth * ALP Exhausted 160 Formal Informal Total Capalaba Roll Uhr LIB Elder * ALP Uhr LIB Elder * ALP Formal Informal Total Chermside Roll Low IND Sullivan * ALP Belcher LIB NAT Sullivan * ALP Belcher LIB Exhausted 161 Formal Informal Total Charters Towers Roll Cronin IND Mitchell * NAT White ALP Paine DEM LIB IND Mitchell * NAT White ALP Exhausted 166 Formal Informal Total Clayfield Roll Williams ALP Leddy DEM Santoro * LIB IPP IND Williams ALP Santoro * LIB Exhausted 375 Formal Informal Total

19 Cleveland Roll Potter (DEM) Briskey * ALP Turnbull LIB NAT Briskey * ALP Turnbull LIB Exhausted 363 Formal Informal Total Cunningham Roll Felice ALP Elliott * NAT LIB Felice ALP Elliott * NAT Formal Informal Total Cook Roll Williams IND Cranwell NAT Tim DEM Bredhauer * ALP LIB IPP OTH Cranwell NAT Bredhauer * ALP Exhausted 386 Formal Informal Total Currumbin Roll Woods LIB Light GRN Rose * ALP Goodwin IND NAT Woods LIB Rose * ALP Exhausted 515 Formal Informal Total Everton Roll Crows Nest Roll Rowston GRN Cooper * NAT Martin ALP LIB Cooper * NAT Martin ALP Exhausted 382 Formal Informal Total Robertson LIB Welford * ALP NAT Robertson LIB Welford * ALP Formal Informal Total

20 Ferny Grove Roll Gorman IND Morris LIB Taylor GRN Milliner * ALP NAT IND Morris LIB Milliner * ALP Exhausted 633 Formal Informal Total Greenslopes Roll Radke LIB Fenlon * ALP GRN IND Radke LIB Fenlon * ALP Formal Informal Total Gregory Roll Fitzroy Roll Mackay NAT Pearce * ALP LIB IND Mackay NAT Pearce * ALP Formal Informal Total Gladstone Roll Bennett * ALP Cunningham IND Williams GRN Elliot NAT LIB Bennett * ALP Cunningham IND Exhausted 473 Formal Informal Total Lonsdale ALP Johnson * NAT Lonsdale ALP Johnson * NAT Formal Informal Total Gympie Roll Sykes (DEM) Warren ALP Schilling IND Stephan * NAT LIB IND Warren ALP Stephan * NAT Exhausted 674 Formal Informal Total

21 Hervey Bay Roll Nioa NAT Nunn * ALP Shilvock DEM LIB Nioa NAT Nunn * ALP Exhausted 309 Formal Informal Total Indooroopilly Roll Bach GRN Beanland * LIB Farruggio ALP Price DEM Beanland * LIB Farruggio ALP Exhausted 432 Formal Informal Total Hinchinbrook Roll Rowell * NAT Preece DEM O'Brien ALP Rowell * NAT O'Brien ALP Exhausted 150 Formal Informal Total Inala Roll Palaszczuk * ALP Rowland LIB IPP Palaszczuk * ALP Rowland LIB Formal Informal Total Ipswich Roll Yabsley IND Mahoney GRN Wilson LIB Hamill * ALP NAT IPP Wilson LIB Hamill * ALP Exhausted 663 Formal Informal Total Ipswich West Roll Vaughan IND Livingstone * ALP Else NAT LIB Livingstone * ALP Else NAT Exhausted 637 Formal Informal Total

22 Kallangur Roll Joyner IND Driscoll LIB Josey GRN Hayward * ALP Driscoll LIB Hayward * ALP Exhausted 945 Formal Informal Total Kedron Roll Braddy * ALP Schellbach LIB NAT GRN IND Braddy * ALP Schellbach LIB Formal Informal Total Keppel Roll Lester * NAT Saunders ALP Muir GRN LIB DEM CAP IND Lester * NAT Saunders ALP Exhausted 331 Formal Informal Total Kurwongbah Roll Hunter CAP Pantano GRN Sharkey LIB Woodgate * ALP Akers IND NAT IND Sharkey LIB Woodgate * ALP Exhausted 1541 Formal Informal Total Lockyer Roll Andrew CAP McCallum ALP Fitzgerald * NAT LIB McCallum ALP Fitzgerald * NAT Exhausted 269 Formal Informal Total Logan Roll Goss * ALP Ritter NAT LIB IND Goss * ALP Ritter NAT Formal Informal Total

23 Lytton Roll Mansell LIB Burns * ALP Nord GRN Mansell LIB Burns * ALP Exhausted 273 Formal Informal Total Mackay Roll Avenell NAT Mulherin ALP Barbour CAP LIB Avenell NAT Mulherin ALP Exhausted 301 Formal Informal Total Mansfield Roll Saunders GRN Power * ALP Carroll LIB NAT Power * ALP Carroll LIB Exhausted 319 Formal Informal Total Maroochydore Roll King ALP Chapman GRN Simpson * NAT LIB IND King ALP Simpson * NAT Exhausted 409 Formal Informal Total Maryborough Roll Maddern NAT Howard DEM Dollin * ALP CAP Maddern NAT Dollin * ALP Exhausted 301 Formal Informal Total Merrimac Roll Loader ALP Quinn * LIB NAT CAP Loader ALP Quinn * LIB Formal Informal Total

24 Mirani Roll Bell IND Malone * NAT Gomersall ALP CAP LIB Malone * NAT Gomersall ALP Exhausted 290 Formal Informal Total Mt Coot-tha Roll Hutton GRN Edmond * ALP Orford LIB NAT DEM Edmond * ALP Orford LIB Exhausted 1043 Formal Informal Total Moggill Roll Watson * LIB Lumsden ALP NAT IND Watson * LIB Lumsden ALP Formal Informal Total Mt Gravatt Roll Hodgson LIB Spence * ALP IND Hodgson LIB Spence * ALP Formal Informal Total Mooloolah Roll Laming * LIB Ferraro IND McLeod GRN Zande ALP NAT Laming * LIB Zande ALP Exhausted 594 Formal Informal Total Mt Isa Roll McGrady * ALP Walden IND Bird NAT LIB CAP IPP McGrady * ALP Bird NAT Exhausted 162 Formal Informal Total

25 Mt Ommaney Roll Russell GRN Pyke * ALP Kapsis IND Harper LIB McCredden DEM Pyke * ALP Harper LIB Exhausted 462 Formal Informal Total Mulgrave Roll Metcalfe GRN Pitt * ALP Kremser DEM Wilson NAT LIB IND Pitt * ALP Wilson NAT Exhausted 360 Formal Informal Total Mundingburra Roll Davies * ALP Tanti LIB Cumming GRN NAT DEM Davies * ALP Tanti LIB Exhausted 635 Formal Informal Total Murrumba Roll Jones LIB Wells * ALP IND Jones LIB Wells * ALP Formal Informal Total Nerang Roll Connor * LIB Bradshaw GRN Alamar ALP NAT IND Connor * LIB Alamar ALP Exhausted 822 Formal Informal Total Nicklin Roll Turner * NAT Kirk DEM Giles ALP LIB IND Turner * NAT Giles ALP Exhausted 460 Formal Informal Total

26 Noosa Roll Macleod ALP Davidson * LIB McNiven IND NAT Macleod ALP Davidson * LIB Exhausted 219 Formal Informal Total Nudgee Roll Roberts ALP Taylor LIB Roberts ALP Taylor LIB Formal Informal Total Redcliffe Roll Matthews IND Tyler IND Curtin (DEM) Beresford LIB Hollis * ALP NAT IND Beresford LIB Hollis * ALP Exhausted 802 Formal Informal Total Redlands Roll Van Rooyen (DEM) Hegarty NAT Skelly IND Budd * ALP LIB IND Hegarty NAT Budd * ALP Exhausted 483 Formal Informal Total Rockhampton Roll Thring IND Hassall NAT Hooper IND Head (DEM) Schwarten ALP LIB GRN IND Hassall NAT Schwarten ALP Exhausted 569 Formal Informal Total Sandgate Roll Nuttall * ALP Purtill CAP Hobbs LIB Nuttall * ALP Hobbs LIB Exhausted 163 Formal Informal Total

27 South Brisbane Roll Bligh ALP Clark LIB Smith (DEM) Kneipp IND Wilson IND IPP Bligh ALP Clark LIB Exhausted 594 Formal Informal Total Sunnybank Roll Robertson * ALP Dickson DEM Friis LIB NAT IND Robertson * ALP Friis LIB Exhausted 204 Formal Informal Total Southport Roll Veivers * NAT Cooper IND Lawlor ALP Payne DEM LIB IND Veivers * NAT Lawlor ALP Exhausted 491 Formal Informal Total Springwood Roll Robson * ALP de Brenni IND O'Leary IND Woolmer LIB Collins (DEM) Gabriel GRN NAT Robson * ALP Woolmer LIB Exhausted 927 Formal Informal Total Surfers Paradise Roll Jocumsen IND Borbidge * NAT Farmer DEM Burke ALP LIB CAP IND Borbidge * NAT Burke ALP LIB Exhausted 372 Formal Informal Total Tablelands Roll Howell DEM Hainaut IND Gilmore * NAT Shearer ALP CAP Gilmore * NAT Shearer ALP Exhausted

28 Formal Informal Total Thuringowa Roll Lane NAT McElligott * ALP Reed (DEM) LIB IND Lane NAT McElligott * ALP Exhausted 433 Formal Informal Total Toowoomba North Roll McGovern ALP Webber IND Healy * NAT LIB CAP IPP McGovern ALP Healy * NAT Exhausted 196 Formal Informal Total Toowoomba South Roll Horan * NAT Russell ALP Horan * NAT Russell ALP Formal Informal Total

29 Townsville Roll Clunies-Ross GRN Smith * ALP Mills LIB NAT IND Smith * ALP Mills LIB Exhausted 724 Formal Informal Total Waterford Roll Hamey LIB Barton * ALP NAT IND Hamey LIB Barton * ALP Formal Informal Total Warrego Roll Bensted ALP Hobbs * NAT IND Bensted ALP Hobbs * NAT Formal Informal Total Western Downs Roll Littleproud * NAT Wood ALP IND Littleproud * NAT Wood ALP Formal Informal Total Warwick Roll Springborg * NAT Bathersby ALP Moles GRN LIB Springborg * NAT Bathersby ALP Exhausted 221 Formal Informal Total Whitsunday Roll Mac Nevin IND Bird * ALP Philp GRN Perske NAT Farr DEM LIB Bird * ALP Perske NAT Exhausted 546 Formal Informal Total

30 Woodridge Roll D'Arcy * ALP Cavanagh LIB Davis IND IND IPP D'Arcy * ALP Cavanagh LIB Exhausted 550 Formal Informal Total Yeronga Roll Le Goullon IND Aitken LIB Kealy CAP Foley * ALP Aitken LIB Foley * ALP Exhausted 270 Formal Informal Total

31 LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY : SUMMARY OF TWO-PARTY RESULTS BY ELECTORATE Electoral 2PP Votes 2PP Percentage District ALP Nat/Lib ALP Nat/Lib Swing Albert to Nat/Lib Archerfield to Nat/Lib Ashgrove to Nat/Lib Aspley to Nat/Lib Barambah to Nat/Lib Barron River to Nat/Lib Beaudesert to Nat/Lib Brisbane Central to Nat/Lib Broadwater to Nat/Lib Bulimba to Nat/Lib Bundaberg to Nat/Lib Bundamba to Nat/Lib Burdekin to Nat/Lib Burleigh to Nat/Lib Burnett to Nat/Lib Caboolture to Nat/Lib Cairns to Nat/Lib Callide (2) to Nat/Lib Caloundra to Nat/Lib Capalaba to Nat/Lib Charters Towers to Nat/Lib Chatsworth to Nat/Lib Chermside to Nat/Lib Clayfield to Nat/Lib Cleveland to Nat/Lib Cook to Nat/Lib Crows Nest to Nat/Lib Cunningham to Nat/Lib Currumbin to Nat/Lib Everton to Nat/Lib Ferny Grove to Nat/Lib Fitzroy to Nat/Lib Gladstone (1) to Nat/Lib Greenslopes to Nat/Lib Gregory to Nat/Lib Gympie to Nat/Lib Hervey Bay to Labor Hinchinbrook to Nat/Lib Inala to Nat/Lib Indooroopilly to Nat/Lib Ipswich to Nat/Lib Ipswich West to Nat/Lib Kallangur to Nat/Lib Kedron to Nat/Lib Keppel to Nat/Lib Kurwongbah to Nat/Lib Lockyer to Nat/Lib Logan to Nat/Lib Lytton to Nat/Lib Mackay to Nat/Lib Mansfield to Nat/Lib Maroochydore to Nat/Lib Maryborough to Nat/Lib Merrimac to Nat/Lib 25

32 LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY : SUMMARY OF TWO-PARTY RESULTS BY ELECTORATE Electoral 2PP Votes 2PP Percentage District ALP Nat/Lib ALP Nat/Lib Swing Mirani to Nat/Lib Moggill to Nat/Lib Mooloolah to Nat/Lib Mt Coot-tha to Nat/Lib Mt Gravatt to Nat/Lib Mt Isa to Labor Mt Ommaney to Nat/Lib Mulgrave to Nat/Lib Mundingburra to Nat/Lib Murrumba to Nat/Lib Nerang to Nat/Lib Nicklin to Nat/Lib Noosa to Nat/Lib Nudgee to Nat/Lib Redcliffe to Nat/Lib Redlands to Nat/Lib Rockhampton to Nat/Lib Sandgate to Nat/Lib South Brisbane to Nat/Lib Southport to Nat/Lib Springwood to Nat/Lib Sunnybank to Nat/Lib Surfers Paradise (2) to Labor Tablelands to Nat/Lib Thuringowa to Nat/Lib Toowoomba North to Nat/Lib Toowoomba South to Nat/Lib Townsville to Nat/Lib Warrego to Nat/Lib Warwick to Nat/Lib Waterford to Nat/Lib Western Downs to Nat/Lib Whitsunday to Nat/Lib Woodridge to Nat/Lib Yeronga to Nat/Lib State-wide Totals to Nat/Lib Footnotes: (1) - Based on estimate of 2-party preferred count for 1992 election (2) - No Labor candidate in

33 LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY ELECTORATES RANKED BY TWO-CANDIDATE PREFERRED VOTE Electorate Margin Electorate Margin Labor seats (45) Inala 18.9 Mt Isa 18.7 Woodridge 18.1 Logan 16.9 Bundamba 14.8 Bulimba 12.6 Lytton 11.3 South Brisbane 10.7 Nudgee 10.7 Gladstone 10.4 Brisbane Central 10.3 Kedron 9.2 Waterford 9.1 Capalaba 8.7 Sandgate 7.9 Cook 7.7 Murrumba 7.2 Fitzroy 6.6 Rockhampton 6.4 Ipswich 6.4 Archerfield 6.1 Kurwongbah 5.9 Mackay 5.7 Ipswich West 5.5 Chermside 5.3 Yeronga 4.6 Chatsworth 4.2 Kallangur 4.0 Mt Coot-tha 3.5 Ferny Grove 3.2 Cleveland 2.5 Cairns 2.3 Caboolture 2.3 Mt Gravatt 2.1 Hervey Bay 1.9 Townsville 1.8 Currumbin 1.5 Thuringowa 1.4 Sunnybank 1.4 Ashgrove 1.3 Everton 1.0 Bundaberg 0.5 Redcliffe 0.4 Maryborough 0.4 Whitsunday 0.1 Mundingburra 0.04 National/Liberal Seats (29/14) Western Downs 29.4 Callide 27.7 Crows Nest 25.6 Barambah 24.4 Cunningham 23.8 Tablelands 23.0 Surfers Paradise 21.8 Lockyer 20.8 Warrego 20.7 Warwick 19.6 Mooloolah (Lib) 19.3 Gregory 18.9 Moggill (Lib) 16.9 Toowoomba South 16.3 Merrimac (Lib) 15.4 Hinchinbrook 14.7 Clayfield (Lib) 14.2 Nerang (Lib) 13.6 Indooroopilly (Lib) 13.3 Nicklin 12.8 Gympie 12.6 Maroochydore 12.3 Broadwater 11.2 Noosa (Lib) 11.2 Burnett 11.1 Springwood (Lib) 10.8 Burdekin 10.6 Keppel 10.3 Toowoomba North 9.6 Beaudesert 9.5 Mirani 9.1 Caloundra (Lib) 8.1 Charters Towers 8.0 Burleigh 7.3 Aspley (Lib) 6.9 Mansfield (Lib) 6.7 Southport 4.8 Redlands 4.6 Albert 3.9 Mt Ommaney (Lib) 1.7 Mulgrave 0.5 Barron River (Lib) 0.4 Greenslopes (Lib) 0.1 Independent Seats (1) Gladstone (vs ALP)

34 LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY ELECTORATES RANKED BY TWO-PARTY SWING TO LABOR Primary 2-Party Primary 2-Party Electorate Swing Swing Electorate Swing Swing Springwood Hinchinbrook Ipswich Everton Ferny Grove Clayfield Redlands Mundingburra Townsville Mansfield Archerfield Murrumba Toowoomba North Keppel Mt Coot-tha Yeronga Cairns Nerang Noosa Gregory Tablelands Burdekin Lytton Mackay Sandgate Logan Maroochydore Redcliffe Bundaberg Kallangur Warwick Ashgrove Nudgee Bulimba Moggill South Brisbane Charters Towers Inala Cunningham Greenslopes Ipswich West Kurwongbah Kedron Mt Gravatt Warrego Crows Nest Woodridge Chatsworth Indooroopilly Rockhampton Chermside Mooloolah Beaudesert Burleigh Aspley Capalaba Caloundra Lockyer Thuringowa Caboolture Albert Fitzroy Toowoomba South Barambah Bundamba Cleveland Gympie Nicklin Merrimac Mirani Brisbane Central Barron River Cook Broadwater Currumbin Sunnybank Mulgrave Maryborough Mt Ommaney Western Downs Southport Whitsunday Callide (2) Waterford Burnett Gladstone (1) Surfers Paradise (2) Mt Isa Hervey Bay Footnotes: (1) - Based on estimate of 2-party preferred count for 1992 election (2) - No Labor candidate in 1992 '+' indicates a swing to Labor. '-' indicates a swing to the National/Liberal Parties 28

35 LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY ELECTORATES RANKED BY PRE-ELECTION MARGIN Primary 2-Party Primary 2-Party Electorate Swing Swing Electorate Swing Swing Labor Seats (Margin) Inala (26.4) Logan (25.3) Woodridge (25.2) Bulimba (20.4) Lytton (19.8) Bundamba (19.8) Nudgee (18.7) South Brisbane (18.5) Ipswich (17.8) Mt Isa (17.6) Sandgate (16.4) Murrumba (16.3) Kedron (16.3) Archerfield (15.2) Brisbane Central (14.8) Capalaba (14.7) Mackay (14.2) Ferny Grove (13.8) Yeronga (13.5) Rockhampton (13.1) Kurwongbah (13.1) Ipswich West (12.7) Mt Coot-tha (12.4) Cook (12.2) Kallangur (12.1) Fitzroy (12.0) Everton (11.7) Chermside (11.7) Gladstone (11.4) Townsville (11.2) Chatsworth (11.1) Cairns (11.1) Waterford (10.8) Mundingburra (9.4) Ashgrove (9.3) Mt Gravatt (9.2) Springwood (8.7) Bundaberg (8.7) Redcliffe (8.6) Caboolture (7.9) Cleveland (7.5) Greenslopes (7.2) Thuringowa (7.1) Currumbin (5.8) Sunnybank (5.5) Redlands (5.2) Barron River (4.2) Maryborough (3.3) Mulgrave (3.2) Mansfield (2.6) Whitsunday (2.2) Albert (1.6) Mt Ommaney (1.2) Hervey Bay (0.6) Liberal/National Seats (Margin) Charters Towers (0.4) Toowoomba North (0.5) Aspley (Lib 0.9) Burleigh (1.1) Keppel (1.4) Burdekin (2.0) Southport (2.3) Hinchinbrook (2.3) Caloundra (Lib 2.3) Noosa (Lib 2.5) Beaudesert (3.2) Maroochydore (4.0) Clayfield (Lib 4.1) Mirani (4.3) Nerang (Lib 4.8) Indooroopilly (Lib 6.4) Broadwater (6.9) Gympie (7.6) Nicklin (7.9) Moggill (Lib 9.1) Burnett (9.5) Gregory (10.2) Merrimac (Lib 10.5) Toowoomba South (11.2) Warwick (11.4) Mooloolah (Lib 12.9) Warrego (13.6) Tablelands (14.4) Lockyer (15.1) Cunningham (16.4) Crows Nest (18.6) Barambah (19.4) Surfers Paradise (21.8) Callide (25.9) Western Downs (26.6) '+' indicates a swing to Labor. '-' indicates a swing to the National/Liberal Parties indicates a seat lost by the Labor Party 29