Factoring in Demographics, Queensland s regions. Sandi Van Roo Team Leader Government Statistician, Queensland Treasury and Trade

Transcription

1 Factoring in Demographics, Queensland s regions Sandi Van Roo Team Leader Government Statistician, Queensland Treasury and Trade

2 Quality decision making requires quality information Quality often depends on the context of use and collection Data must be fit for purpose Accurate - Unbiased Available - Relevant Repeatable - Current Comparable - Interpretable Relevant

3 Quality data from a range of sources Australian Bureau of Statistics Census (5 yearly) Australian Government administrative data State Government administrative data Local Government collections Other Academia Surveys (often cannot get specific LGA results though)

4 What do the data represent? Actual counts of people, things or events Census data Hospital admissions Weighted estimates e.g. Survey data Model estimates e.g. Small area population estimates DEEWR small area employment rates

5 Measures: one size does not fit all National trends/issues may not reflect local trends and issues Need for understanding of specific dynamics and demographics of local areas Planning for engagement, services and infrastructure what, who for and why?

6 Data tasters Queensland and its regions

7 Population, Queensland s regions Understanding estimated resident populations Population growth The ageing population Labour force Workforce commuting Overseas migrants Government Statistician data sources

8 Estimated Resident Population ABS releases of final rebased (and recast) ERP: 20 June 2013 Australia and State Sept August 2013 Total ERP SA2, SA3, SA4 for Total ERP LGA for Age by sex ERP sub-state Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander and non-indigenous populations, 30 June 2011 April 2014 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander estimates

9 Qld growth over 20 years to 2011 Persons (millions) ERP prior to rebasing/recasting Preliminary rebased ERP Final rebased ERP 103, ABS ERPs: Year to 30 June Recast growth 15 years % p.a. (2.2% prior to recasting) prior to rebasing 2.3% p.a..after final rebasing 2.2% p.a. Source: ABS, , Sep 2011, Dec 2011 and Dec 2012

10 Case Study - Mackay City ERP Final rebased ERP 2011: 115,960 (2012: 119,081) Preliminary pre-census ERP for 2011: 121, ERP revised downwards by 5,110 people Final recast ERP 2006: 103, ERP revised downwards by 3,770 people Growth Revised downwards by 1,350 people to 12,390, or 2,480 people per annum. Growth rate revised downwards by 0.2% to 2.3% per annum

11 Components of population change, Queensland Persons 120,000 Natural increase Net overseas migration Net interstate migration 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Year to 30 June Source: ABS, , Dec 2012

12 Net interstate migration, Queensland, year to 30 June 2012 QLD NIM 11,800 Net loss to WA (4 th year running after a decade of gains) Source: preliminary estimates, ABS, Dec

13 Overseas Migration, Queensland Persons Net overseas migration (LHS) % of national total (RHS) Per cent 70, , , ,000 break in time series , , , Source: ABS, , Dec 2012

14 Population growth factors to consider Not just amount and location of growth Characteristics of growth e.g.: Ageing population = infrastructure /services designed for ageing and eventually ailing population Continued growth in children = schools, sporting facilities etc. Changing household structures; growth in 1 and 2 person households Changing journey to work patterns

15 Inset Average annual population growth Queensland LGAs LGA ERP 2012 Total change since 2002 Largest population growth Brisbane 1,110, ,184 Gold Coast 526, ,542 Moreton Bay 400, ,493 Largest population growth outside of SEQ Townsville 184,526 39,411 Cairns 165,388 37,680 Mackay 119,081 27,527 Largest population decrease Cassowary Coast 28, See inset Source: ABS, , 2012

16 Geographic distribution of recent overseas migrants Arrived January 2007 to 2011 Census night Source: ABS 2011 Census of Population and Housing. Graphic published by DIAC in Migration to Australia s states and territories

17 Top three LGAs, overseas born, 2011 Census Brisbane (C) Gold Coast (C) Logan (C) persons % persons % persons % Population born overseas 295, , , NZ 41, NZ 42, NZ 21, Top overseas countries of birth England 39, England 27, England 12, China 18, South Africa 5, Philippines 2, India 18, Japan 3, South Africa 1, Population speaking LOTE at home: Most common LOTE spoken at home: 192, , , Mandarin 27, Japanese 4, Samoan 3, * LOTE language other than English Source: ABS 2011 Census of Population and Housing.

18 Top three LGAs outside SEQ, all overseas born, 2011 Census Cairns (C) Townsville (C) Toowoomba (C) persons % persons % persons % Population born overseas 31, , , England 6, England 4, England 3, Top overseas countries of birth NZ 5, NZ 4, NZ 2, PNG 1, Philippines 1, South Africa Japan 1, South Africa Philippines Population speaking LOTE at home: Most common LOTE spoken at home: 17, , , Japanese 2, Italian Arabic Source: ABS 2011 Census of Population and Housing.

19 Future growth Useful Government Statistician products: Population projections Broadhectare Studies Location, quantity, timeframe, dwelling yield and density Residential Land Development Activity Profile, Local Government Areas Building approvals Resource area non-resident workers on-shift/fte populations, non-resident population projections

20 Population projections A range of different publications and series exist: Qld Government Statistician Primarily designed to provide small area data to inform planning for the future. Use a range of inputs including local knowledge around land supply. Location, rate, amount and composition Variations between publications due to: differing assumptions, base years and inputs 20

21 Actual and projected population Persons (millions) Queensland, 1991 to m (2011pr 4.47m) 11.1m 9.1m 7.3m m m Estimated resident population Projected - high series Projected - low series Projected - medium series 2011: projection based on 2006 ERP was 4.58 million people Rebased 2011 ERP was 4.47 million Sources: ABS, , Sep 2011 ( estimates prior to rebasing) and Government Statistician population projections, 2011 edition, Queensland Treasury and Trade 21

22 Ageing population

23 Queensland, 30 June % were Baby boomers ( ) 1,040,700 people Now entering retirement age 26.6% were Gen X ( ) 1,188,100 people 20 to 40 years working life ahead (at least ) 26.2% Gen Y ( ) Some in workforce, youngest still in primary school

24 Dependents per 100 working population Young population 63.3 per 100 Dependency ratio, Qld Ageing population 67.7 per per per Total historical Total DR projected Aged DR Hist Young DR Hist Aged DR projected Young DR projected Projected 0-14 year olds: stable per 100 working age persons Sources: ABS, ; Queensland Government medium series population projections, 2011 edition, Government Statistician, Queensland Treasury and Trade (please note that projections are updated on a 2 ½ year cycle) 24

25 Dependency Ratio, 30 June 2012 per 100 persons aged years 70.0 Child dependency ratio 60.0 Aged dependency ratio Fraser Coast (R) South Burnett (R) North Burnett (R) Southern Downs (R) Hinchinbrook (S) Torres Strait Island (R) Bundaberg (R) Gympie (R) Mornington (S) Flinders (S) Goondiwindi (R) Doomadgee (S) Cherbourg (S) Quilpie (S) Charters Towers (R) Tablelands (R) Northern Peninsula Area (R) Burdekin (S) Scenic Rim (R) Woorabinda (S) Yarrabah (S) Western Downs (R) Somerset (R) Sunshine Coast (R) Balonne (S) Etheridge (S) Murweh (S) Blackall Tambo (R) Toowoomba (R) Winton (S) Paroo (S) Longreach (R) Barcaldine (R) Banana (S) Cassowary Coast (R) Lockyer Valley (R) Torres (S) Maranoa (R) Moreton Bay (R) Rockhampton (R) Napranum (S) Redland (C) Ipswich (C) Palm Island (S) Gold Coast (C) Logan (C) Croydon (S) Carpentaria (S) Cairns (R) Aurukun (S) Mackay (R) Pormpuraaw (S) Gladstone (R) Hope Vale (S) Lockhart River (S) Townsville (C) Boulia (S) Whitsunday (R) Richmond (S) Central Highlands (R) Mount Isa (C) Wujal Wujal (S) Kowanyama (S) Isaac (R) Brisbane (C) Bulloo (S) Mapoon (S) Cook (S) Barcoo (S) Weipa (T) Cloncurry (S) McKinlay (S) Burke (S) Diamantina (S) Source: ABS, , 2012

26 Labour force

27 Labour force participation rates, Qld Participation rate Males Females Persons March 2013: Male 72.0%; Female 59.8%; Person 65.9% Source: ABS Labour Force, Australia seasonally adjusted data 27

28 Labour force participation rates, Qld Source: ABS Labour Force, Australia seasonally adjusted data and Queensland Government Statistician unpublished, Queensland Treasury and Trade 28

29 Labour force Significant drivers of increased participation in recent decades: females entering labour market participation among older persons (50+ years) Participation rates likely to decrease in future: Convergence of female rates to male rates likely to slow (biggest gains already made) Aging population will impact on aggregate participation rates Policy and economic drivers may also change. 29

30 Labour force 65+ population will double over next 20 years 1.29 million by % of total population Working age population (15-64 year olds) Growth projected to slow from 1.8% p.a. to 0.9% p.a 4.1 million by % of total population Sources: ABS, ; Queensland Government medium series population projections, 2011 edition, Government Statistician, Queensland Treasury and Trade (please note that projections are updated on a 2 ½ year cycle) 30

31 Regional unemployment rates, year to July 2013 Australia 5.5 Queensland 6.0 Brisbane City Inner Ring 5.1 Brisbane City Outer Ring South and East Brisbane SD Balance North Brisbane SD Balance 5.1 Ipswich City 5.8 Sunshine Coast 6.3 West Moreton 6.5 Gold Coast 5.8 Wide Bay-Burnett 8.6 Darling Downs-South West 4.7 Mackay-Fitzroy-Central West 5.5 Northern-North West 5.0 Far North unemployment rate (%) Source: ABS Labour Force Survey, 12 month averaged data to July 2013, for Australia, Queensland, and Queensland Labour Force Statistical Regions

32 Youth unemployment, year to July 2013 Unemployment rate (%) Regions* years years All ages Brisbane Ipswich Sunshine Coast West Moreton Wide Bay-Burnett Mackay-Fitzroy-Central West Darling Downs-South West Northern-North West Far North Gold Coast Queensland AUSTRALIA Source: ABS Labour Force Survey, 12 month averaged data to July 2013, for Australia, Queensland, and Queensland Labour Force Statistical Regions

33 Employment growth by region, year to July 2013 Brisbane City Inner Ring -4.4 Brisbane City Outer Ring 6.5 South and East Brisbane SD Balance -8.5 North Brisbane SD Balance 4.6 Ipswich City Sunshine Coast West Moreton 1.8 Gold Coast -4.8 Wide Bay-Burnett -1.0 Darling Downs-South West 0.1 Mackay-Fitzroy-Central West 2.6 Northern-North West 1.7 Far North employment growth ('000s) Source: ABS Labour Force Survey, 12 month averaged data to July 2013, for Australia, Queensland, and Queensland Labour Force Statistical Regions

34 Industry employment, year to May 2013 Greater Brisbane Regional Queensland Wholesale Trade Transport, Postal & Warehousing Retail Trade Rental, Hiring & Real Estate Public Administration & Safety Professional, Scientific & Technical Other Services Mining Manufacturing Information Media & Telecomms Health Care & Social Assistance Financial & Insurance Electricity, Gas, Water & Waste Education & Training Construction Arts & Recreation Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Administrative & Support Accommodation & Food industry employment ('000s) Source: ABS Labour Force Survey, four quarter averaged data to May 2013 by the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations, Qld Labour Force Statistics rapid distribution web page (Australian Government)

35 Employment growth by industry, year to May 2013 Regional Queensland Greater Brisbane Accommodation & Food 5.9 Administrative & Support Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing -8.5 Arts & Recreation -5.2 Construction 7.3 Education & Training Electricity, Gas, Water & Waste Financial & Insurance Health Care & Social Assistance Information Media & Telecomms Manufacturing Mining Other Services Professional, Scientific & Technical Public Administration & Safety Rental, Hiring & Real Estate Retail Trade Transport, Postal & Warehousing 6.3 Wholesale Trade industry employment ('000s) Source: ABS Labour Force Survey, four quarter averaged data to May 2013 by the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations, Qld Labour Force Statistics rapid distribution web page (Australian Government)

36 Business owners* by region, as % of all income earners 35% to 45% 25% to 35% 15% to 25% up to 15% *Persons who earned income from an own unincorporated business income category. Source: ABS , Estimates of Personal Income for Small Areas,

37 Commuters in SEQ, 2011 Census Region of employment Region of residence (SA4) Brisbane * Same region SEQ balance persons Australia balance Other** Brisbane * 462,045 50,285 7,841 58, ,919 Gold Coast 15, ,142 9,621 8,978 35, ,685 Ipswich 36,116 63,272 4,441 3,627 15, ,703 Logan Beaudesert 46,151 50,775 13,946 1,742 19, ,459 Moreton Bay North 24,982 40,599 9,572 1,653 13,053 89,859 Moreton Bay South 45,609 23,339 6,830 1,149 9,761 86,688 Sunshine Coast 5, ,179 3,734 4,930 19, ,073 Brisbane Gold Coast Ipswich Logan Beaudesert Moreton Bay North Moreton Bay South Sunshine Coast *Brisbane region combines the SA4s of Brisbane East, Brisbane North, Brisbane South, Brisbane West and Brisbane Inner City. ** Other category includes regions of employment coded to undefined categories, migratory, offshore & shipping, no fixed address and not stated. ABS, 2011 Census TableBuilder Pro % Total

38 SP1 Government Statistician data sources Qld Regional Database (QRSIS) time-series collections of economic, social and demographic data for regions throughout Queensland.

39 Slide 38 SP1 Can update this home Suzanne Philp, 22/08/2013

40 Spatial Price Index, Queensland, 2010 All items index All items less housing index Source: Government Statistician, Queensland Treasury and Trade, Index of Retail Prices in Queensland Regional Centres, May 2010

41 Upcoming and recent releases Recent releases Population Growth, Regional Queensland Population Age and Gender, Regional Queensland Population, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Queenslanders, 30 June 2011 Population, Regional Queensland, Revised, 2001 to 2011 Updated regional profiles Coming soon Population Growth Highlights and Trends, Regional Queensland fact sheets by region October 2013 Queensland Government population projections LGA (and SA2) level expected release in November 2013 Upcoming ABS release 16 September 2013 Perspectives on Regional Australia: Enumerated and Usually Resident Populations in Regions, 2011 (ABS )

42 Other products Resource communities Estimated non-resident populations and projections Land supply Broad hectare studies for a range of areas projected land release and dwelling yields over next 10 years. Contact Government Statistician Queensland Treasury and Trade (07) govstat@treasury.qld.gov.au 41