Consensus Based Decisions Tools and Techniques for Success

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1 Consensus Based Decisions Tools and Techniques for Success Gregg Leone MITRE, Director 20 October 2012

2 Today s complexity one day traffic sample from the NY area 2

3 3

4 LGA Arr 4

5 LGA Arr, EWR Arr 5

6 LGA Arr, EWR Arr, JFK Arr 6

7 LGA Arr, EWR Arr, JFK Arr, LGA Dep 7

8 LGA Arr, EWR Arr, JFK Arr, LGA Dep, EWR Dep 8

9 LGA Arr, EWR Arr, JFK Arr, LGA Dep, EWR Dep, JFK Dep 9

10 LGA Arr, EWR Arr, JFK Arr, LGA Dep, EWR Dep, JFK Dep, PHL Arr 10

11 LGA Arr, EWR Arr, JFK Arr, LGA Dep, EWR Dep, JFK Dep, PHL Arr, PHL Dep 11

12 LGA Arr, EWR Arr, JFK Arr, LGA Dep, EWR Dep, JFK Dep, PHL Arr, PHL Dep, TEB Arr 12

13 LGA Arr, EWR Arr, JFK Arr, LGA Dep, EWR Dep, JFK Dep, PHL Arr, PHL Dep, TEB Arr, TEB Dep 13

14 LGA Arr, EWR Arr, JFK Arr, LGA Dep, EWR Dep, JFK Dep, PHL Arr, PHL Dep, TEB Arr, TEB Dep, HPN Arr 14

15 LGA Arr, EWR Arr, JFK Arr, LGA Dep, EWR Dep, JFK Dep, PHL Arr, PHL Dep, TEB Arr, TEB Dep, HPN Arr, HPN Dep 15

16 LGA Arr, EWR Arr, JFK Arr, LGA Dep, EWR Dep, JFK Dep, PHL Arr, PHL Dep, TEB Arr, TEB Dep, HPN Arr, HPN Dep, ISP Arr 16

17 LGA Arr, EWR Arr, JFK Arr, LGA Dep, EWR Dep, JFK Dep, PHL Arr, PHL Dep, TEB Arr, TEB Dep, HPN Arr, HPN Dep, ISP Arr, ISP Dep 17

18 LGA Arr, EWR Arr, JFK Arr, LGA Dep, EWR Dep, JFK Dep, PHL Arr, PHL Dep, TEB Arr, TEB Dep, HPN Arr, HPN Dep, ISP Arr, ISP Dep, MMU Arr, MMU Dep, Others 18

19 Solutions for today s system complexities will require new ways to collaborate and evolve 19

20 Typical Innovation Cycle Performance Index Major technical obstacles are overcome Perfecting the current operation becomes the research focus Technology approaches the physical limits Time

21 Five Waves of Aviation Evolution First Wave Pre 1950 Second Wave Third Wave Shrimp Boat Era Manual ATC System Surveillance Era Radars & Automation Aides Computerization Automated Flight Info. Processing

22 Safety Requirements Focus Five Waves of Aviation Evolution Safety and Operational Requirements Focus First Wave Pre 1950 Second Wave Third Wave Shrimp Boat Era Manual ATC System Surveillance Era Radars & Automation Aides Computerization Automated Flight Info. Processing Technology driven evolution Performance Assessment and Management Driven Evolution

23 Aviation Evolution Equivalent Safety, Efficiency, Predictability, and Access Safety and Efficiency Integrated A/G Ops Ground-based DSS Safety Focus Surveillance Automated FDP Fourth Wave ( ) Fifth Wave ( ) Shrimp Boat Third Wave ( ) Second Wave ( ) First Wave (Pre 1950)

24 What Are the Near-term Research Needs? 5 R Best Performing, Best Served Defining basic level of service expectation Determining how and when performance tailored services can be offered Decision Support Tools for Mixed Equipage Managing flows Distinguishing between aircraft performance capabilities

25 What are the future research needs?

26 Currently, the Aircraft is an Endpoint on the Network

27 In the Future, the Aircraft Can Become a Node in the System A Quantum Leap is possible

28 Web 2.0 reinvented the internet, creating Killer Apps yet it is built on the same foundation. Google Earth

29 Aviation 2.0 What Killer Ops will aircraft as a node enable?

30 Aviation Evolution Equivalent Safety, Efficiency, Predictability, Environment and Access Safety and Efficiency Integrated A/G Ops Roles & Responsibilities Safety Focus Surveillance Automated FDP Ground-based DSS Fourth Wave ( ) ( ) Fifth Wave ( ) Far-term (2020+) Shrimp Boat Third Wave ( ) Second Wave ( ) First Wave (Pre 1950)

31 Defining Human-Automation Roles and Responsibilities ATM/CNS Systems Planning and Dispatch Air Crews Air Traffic Control Homeland Security Traffic Flow Management Military Other

32 Key Research Needs for Aviation 2.0 Understanding System Resiliency A/G communication or system failures Traffic density implications Maintaining situational awareness Dealing with Complexity Diversity in operations and airframes Tools, policy, procedures and training to deal with complexity Leveraging an information rich environment What information is relevant, authoritative, and timely Culture change How do we get people to operate as roles change What does it take to trust this new system Safety What is the next level of safety Risk Management through automation, SMS, etc. System certification for integrated A/G operations

33 Labs and test facilities will also need to reflect the complexities of Aviation 2.0 Policy Changes Procedures Technology Operations Initiatives System Point of View

34 Building Consensus for Aviation 2.0 Operational What is it? Value Why do I care? Reality Why should I believe it?

36 Thank You

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