Potentiale und Bedarfsstruktur für solarthermische Anwendungen in Thailand - Rahmenbedingungen und Status quo

Transcription

1 Potentiale und Bedarfsstruktur für solarthermische Anwendungen in Thailand - Rahmenbedingungen und Status quo Prof. Dr.-Ing. Christoph Menke; JGSEE/Bangkok & FH Trier Informationsworkshop: Solarthermie in Industrie und Gewerbe in Thailand: Potentiale für deutsche Unternehmen Dienstag, 05. März 2013, GIZ-Repräsentanz - Berlin

2 Table of Content Development of the Solar Thermal Market in Thailand Solar Thermal Market Development Sectors for Solar Thermal Systems Potential for Solar Thermal Systems in Thailand Actual Market Growth Economics of Solar Thermal Systems Thai Subsidy Program Market Participants Future of Solar Thermal Systems in Thailand Conclusions

3 INTRODUCTION Thai Solar Market Development: Before 1996 Beginning of 2005 Beginning of 2006 Beginning of 2007 Beginning of ,000 m 2 15,000 m 2 21,800 m 2 30,300 m 2 38,300 m 2 Total installed area until 2008 : 73,300m 2 Total operating area until 2008: 38,300m 2 Difference due to out of operation from older systems Source Prasitpianchai, S Solar Heat in Agro Industrial Process Final Report. Bangkok, Deutsche Gesellschaft für international Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH

4 INTRODUCTION: MARKET IS SMALL BUT GROWING! Thai Solar Thermal Market Development: With Subsidy Without Subsidy ,000 m 2 7,000 m ,000 m 2 7,600 m ,000 m 2 8,200 m ,000 m 2 8,900 m ,000 m 2 9,660 m 2 Remark: Data for subsidies systems from DEDE; Data for without subsidy are estimates based on an annual growth of 8,5% from 2008 base.

5 ACTUAL MARKET SHARE IN DIFFERENT SECTORS Market Share in 2007 Market Share in 2011 Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial Others 10% 5% 14% 50% 39% 40% 42% Remark: The industrial sector has grown from 10% to 39%!

6 Temperature Ranges for different Food Industrial Processes Source: Kalogiron, S.: The potential of solar energy in food-industry process heat applications, Nicosia, Cyprus.

7 MARKET POTENTIAL ESTIMATION : 1,5 3 Mio. m² Potential of 1,500,000 m 2 was originally based on 1200 kwh/m²/a solar yield A more realistic solar yield of 800 kwh/m²/a results in 2,2 Mio. m² Estimates according to DIW boiler statistics in industrial companies leads by a 15% market penetration to 3 Mio. m² Enough to start to realize it! Sources: The Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment (JGSEE), International Institution for Energy Conservation (IIEC), Institute for Solar Energy Systems (Fraunhofer ISE) FINAL REPORT Market Development for Solar Thermal Applications in Thailand (SolTherm Thailand). Thailand And Prasitpianchai, S Solar Heat in Agro Industrial Process Final Report, Bangkok, Deutsche Gesellschaft für international Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH

8 SHARE AMONG THE SECTORS IN THAILAND - MARKET POTENTIAL Sector Potential of Solar Hot Water [ktoe] Collecor Area [m 2 ] Residential ,955 Commercial ,789 Industrial ,270,578 Total ,237,322 Industrial 57% Residential 41% Commercial 2% The industrial sector has the biggest potential, if there is enough Space near the factories! Residential sector is difficult, as no hot water pipes are installed in the houses! Hospitals, Hotels are worth to consider, if the roof area is available!

9 ACTUAL MARKET GROWTH Market Growth from 2008 until 2013: 20%/a m Subsidy No Subsidy Total Year Accumulative Installation m Year

10 ACTUAL MARKET GROWTH Investment in regards to the complete system Assumption: Baht/m² 1 Euro = 40 Baht Market Volume: Mio Baht 7,5 Mio 17,5 Mio /a

11 ACTUAL MARKET GROWTH Investment in regards to the collectors only Assumption: Baht/m² /m² For collector only 1 Euro = 40 Baht 6,25 11, 25 Mio. /a

12 ECONOMICS OF SOLAR THERMAL HEATING SYSTEMS Heat cost from conventional fuels, Date: Dec 2011 Now: 2,97 Baht/kWh Now: 2,76 Baht/kWh Source: Solar Heat in Agro Industrial Process, Sirikul Prasitpianchai; GIZ Bangkok, 2012

13 CONVENTIONAL FUEL SOURCES AND PAYBACK PERIODS Electricity: 4 a 7 a simple pay back Assumptions: Electr.3,9 Baht/kWh (= 9,75 c /kwh) Energy Price Increase: 8%/a Solar yield: 800 kwh/m²/a Spec. Costs of System: Baht/m² /m² No subsidies assumed!

14 CONVENTIONAL FUEL SOURCES AND PAYBACK PERIODS Heavy Fuel Oil (1500): 5 9 a simple pay back Assumptions: 2,76 Baht/kWh (= 6,9 c /kwh) Annual Energy Price: 8%/a Solar yield: 800 kwh/m²/a Spec. Costs of System: Baht/m² /m² No subsidies assumed!

15 CONVENTIONAL FUEL SOURCES AND PAYBACK PERIODS Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG): 5 8,5 years LPG price jumped from 18 Baht/kg (Oct. 2011) to 30 Baht/kg (May 2012) Assumptions: 2,97 Baht/kWh (= 7,42 c /kwh) Growth: 8%/a Solar yield: 800 kwh/m²/a Spec. Costs of System: Baht/m² /m² No subsidies assumed!

16 THAI SOLAR THERMAL SUBSIDY PROGRAM BY DEDE : Based on a fixed plan, developed in Targets/ Year in m 2 /Year Originally Planned Actual plan ,000 7,500 10,000 17,500 40,000-5,000 3,000 10,000 10,000 28,000 Realized - 3,973 2,910 10,000 10,000 27, : 13,000 m 2 have been installed under the following conditions: 4,500 Baht/m 2 for closed-loop systems, which solar yield above 800 kwh/m 2 /a 3,500 Baht/m 2 for open-loop systems, which solar yield above 800 kwh/m 2 /a 3,000 Baht/m 2 for closed- or open loop systems, which solar yield between kwh/m 2 /a

17 Example: Installation in DEDE Subsidy Program in 2010 Source; DEDE and Prasitpianchai, S Solar Heat in Agro Industrial Process Final Report. Bangkok, Deutsche Gesellschaft für international Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH

18 DEDE: Government subsidy program for 2013 Maximum of 3,460 Thai Baht (THB)/m2 depending on 4 main components: Solar collector: 1,357-2,007 THB/m2 with solar yield above 500 kwh/m2 per year 1. Storage tank: 657 THB/m2 for stainless steel tank 2. Hot water piping: THB/m2 for copper stainless PPR-PN25 or PPR-PN20 3. Hot water pump, control system, data recording system, etc: 519 THB/m2 4. Collector area calculated based on aperture area (flat plate) or gross area (vacuum tube) Requirements for System: Hybrid system (solar collector and waste heat from air conditioner, boiler, etc) Requirements for installation: 40 m2 minimum per project; Payback within 5 years; New projects, No defined maximum size per project Program is limited to 25,000 m2 in 2013 More Information:

19 Thailand: DEDE Subsidy Effects on the Solar Market Simple payback period: In combining solar heat system with waste heat recovery, the pay back period can be reduced by 30% Lower prices of collector and system: higher market volume as a result from the subsidy has increased market competition Average sale price of large scale solar system: 21,500 baht/m 2 (512 euro/m 2 ) in The sale price of system was reduced to 16,000 baht/m 2 (380 euro/m 2 ) in 2010 (Source: DEDE surveys). Market size and sector: Subsidy for large scale solar system has increased the market share in industrial sector as well as double the market volume. The market share has changed from domestic and commercial sector dominated to industrial sector. Source: Prasitpianchai, S Solar Heat in Agro Industrial Process Final Report. Bangkok, Deutsche Gesellschaft für international Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH

20 LOCAL MARKET PARTICIPANTS - 1 TSUS Group: Focus on industrial customers, they claim to have an internal market share of 10 % for domestic and 20 % for commercial customers. They assemble their own flat plate collectors. They are located in the north of Thailand (Chang Mai) They also have their main business there. Ravotek: Unfortunately they were not keen to share any data But they are assembling their own vacuum tube collectors They are only company, which does that in Thailand. Vispack: Vispack seems to have its focus on commercial customers, they claim that their market share for commercial systems is 90 %. Vispack purchases their components from company Chromagen in Isreal. These companies have a market share of each % of total market.

21 LOCAL MARKET PARTICIPANTS - 2 One other company, which seems to play a significant role in the market: Water Systems & Service Ltd., Partnership. This company does not like to share any information. According to information from GIZ Thailand, we assume that this company have a market share of %. Others are Praneetech Praneetech is selling modules from Solarhart, imported from Australia. This company does want to not share any information. Technology Green Solutions Co., Ltd., Mr: F Roecker, Khon Khaen Assembles own flat plate collectors with German TINOX fins Best guess companies active in Solar Thermal business in Thail. Beside local companies, there are some international companies active Problem: No accurate Data exists who is installing how many solar systems. => It would be worth to establish more accurate market data!

22 Future of Solar Thermal Systems in Thailand - 1 Options and Chances: DEDE/Thai Government has a subsidy program and supports solar thermal development! Energy subsidies are gradually removed, see LPG, so solar has a chance! Industrial customers, especially international manufacturing companies are recognizing the value of solar heat Own field monitoring of larger solar systems resulted in solar yields of kwh/m²/a, which is quite good. More and more good quality systems are installed and industrial customers recognize the value of quality slowly

23 Future of Solar Thermal Systems in Thailand - 2 Challenges: Low quality systems in the past have given solar thermal systems a bad reputation! Electricity tariffs are still subsidized through subsidized natural gas in power plants No active Association exists, that can raise the visibility of good solar thermal systems DEDE has supported m² in large solar thermal systems in the last 5 years, but monitoring of their performance/ solar yield, and/or quality does not happen yet Own field monitoring resulted in solar yields of kwh/m²/a, which is quite good Pay Back period is still high if high-tech solutions are installed and no subsidies can be used!

24 Conclusions Good framework, but market still needs to be developed further through good, reliable, but simple solar thermal systems! Market is not transparent and you need to have a local partner to get around. Thai Government does support the solar thermal market, but to get the subsidy is not easy without the right local partners. German technology needs to be adopted to reduce the costs, but reliable enough to produce good solar yield reliable under Thai environmental conditions, which are quite challenging (water quality, humidity, rain, temperature stress, etc.)

25 Thank you for your kind attention! Prof. Dr.-Ing. Christoph Menke Hochschule Trier / Trier University of Applied Sciences FB: Versorgungstechnik Energietechnik / Energy Technology D Trier menke@fh-trier.de The Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment (JGSEE) King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi Bangkok 10140, THAILAND