A real world example of using predictive analytics in large corporations for forecasting, budgeting and planning

Transcription

1 A real world example of using predictive analytics in large corporations for forecasting, budgeting and planning By Terry Simmonds Founder of Endure Data Science and Business Intelligence

2 Terry Simmonds Principal Consultant and Founder Endure Data Science and Business Intelligence Much of Terry s career has been involved with developing data information stores, business forecasting, analytics and business modelling, undertaking internal stakeholder management, training, coaching staff on the use of analytics, presenting and consulting. Recently in Australia s largest Telecommunications company he directed the rollout of a national forecasting and analytics platform for 140+ users. In February this year, he presented on how Predictive Analytics is used in Telstra at the Certified Practicing Accountants (CPA) forecasting conference in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. He has developed and presented many courses on forecasting, analytics and project management over his 30 year career. He is a financial mathematician/data scientist by trade with a Bachelor of Science degree (1988) from the University of Queensland and post graduate studies in Actuarial mathematics, investments and management. Terry has Coaching for Performance and Front Line Management qualifications and he is currently finalising his Australian national accreditation in Workplace Training and Assessment. Endure Data Science and Business Intelligence Page 2

3 2. Introduction 3. Table of Contents 4. Acknowledgement and Thanks 5. Predictive Work Summary 6. What is Predictive Analytics? 7. Why use Predictive Analytics? 8. Part 1 Predictive Analytics General 9. Data Collection in General 10. Knowledge Base 11. Predictive Models - General 12. Part 2 Predictive Work 13. Model Example 14. Customer Adds Statistical Models 15. So which one to choose? 16. Model sample error distributions 17. Selected Customer Sales Forecast 18. Collaboration 19. Final Collaborated Forecast 20. Prediction System Features 21. Connect with us 22. Thank you! Endure Data Science and Business Intelligence Page 3

4 Thank you to all the people who inspired this e-book. Thanks for your help whether it was in person or via your presentations, books, videos, interviews, tweets and blogs! Teresa Simmonds John Turner Lynley Vinton Joseph Panagiotakis Toby Jenkins Jesus Christ Burton Wu Peter Edwards Mike Loukides Martin Baker Evan Stubbs Tony Ward Adam Franklin Tony Simmonds Gary Cokins Richard Branson David Williams Charles Nyce International Institute of Forecasters Please Share 2012 by Endure Data Science and Business Intelligence. This e-book is free and licensed under the Creative Commons License, Attribution If you find this e-book useful please feel free to blog about it, tweet it, it to a friend and otherwise share it with the world. The author just asks that you don t alter, transform, or build upon it without prior consent. Version 1.0 Please feel free to forward any of your content ideas for this document at Many other folk who over the years have provided their insight and support both professionally and personally. Full disclosure Affiliate links may have been used in this e-book, which means if you click through and buy something, we are likely to earn a small commission. Plus we may have business relationships with people and organisations mentioned in this e-book. Endure Data Science and Business Intelligence Page 4

5 Predictive analytics assists with developing forecasts for business decision making. It will NOT work well, however, when used in a slavishly dictatorial way or as a mindless black box approach. It works well when used to augment judgemental based and other relevant modelling and forecasting approaches to deliver a collaborated view which is seen as more accurate and reliable than any one view on its own. When challenging seasoned executive gut feels talk to the method and numbers rather than the opinions. This generates respect and objectivity. Endure Data Science and Business Intelligence Page 5

6 Predictive Analytics is a broad term describing a variety of statistical and analytical techniques used to develop models that predict future events or behaviours. Charles Nyce Predictive Analytics incorporates a range of activities including visualizing data, developing assumptions and data models, overlaying modelling theory and mathematics, then estimating/predicting future outcomes. At its core it relies on capturing relationships between the explanatory variables and the predicted variable from past data points, and exploiting those relationships to predict future outcomes. Some techniques include Mathematical modelling of many varied and different types to determine true drivers; Data mining; Game theory; Time series analysis and forecasting Just to name a few Endure Data Science and Business Intelligence Page 6

7 Some of the why s for using Predictive Analytics include 1. How will future profits be generated? 2. How will customer purchasing patterns drive future infrastructure demand? 3. How, where and when will your customers take-up your new product(s)? 4. What is the likely future customer churn behaviour? 5. What is the future company financial position for market disclosure? 6. I am sure you can think of many more So how does this all work in practice for your organisation? Part 1 of this ebook outlines a general predictive analytics approach while Part 2 provides a more concrete example for those interested a little more detail. Of course, if you are looking for how your organisation can implement a specific predictive analytics or data science road map then do not hesitate to contact us at Please forward any ideas you have regarding the content of future iterations of this ebook at Endure Data Science and Business Intelligence Page 7

8 When dealing with large volumes of predictive analytics a broad process is required. 4 general steps Define the problem or hypothesis or objective Identify and collect relevant data and information Analyse data, develop knowledge base, design predictive models Utilise predictive models to determine most likely outcome(s) Defining the problem will drive all aspects of your data collection through to predictive analytics modelling. Information/Data store Knowledge base Predictive models Tools People Processes The next few pages will outline the general approach from gathering information to producing predictive modelling and bringing all together with the people and the processes. Endure Data Science and Business Intelligence Page 8

9 Looking at the how to develop the Information data stores and undergoing data collection in general, you will need to consider your data needs for the following areas. Big ticket information needs 1. How big is the market currently? 2. What has happened in the market historically? 3. What competitors are out there and what are their market shares, product offerings, etc? 4. Much more... More product centric information 1. What is the historical financial General Ledge (GL) information for the product? 2. What additional driver based information is available? Sales Channels to market Types of customers buying and using the products Customer usage patterns What is the social media chatter & other big data sources... What external factors influenced the historical results? 1. What marketing & pricing campaigns were implemented? 2. What investments were made in the network? 3. Much more... Information/Data store Endure Data Science and Business Intelligence Page 9

10 Now comes the fun part Once you have collected sufficient data you can then turn your attention to turning the facts and data into knowledge, ie identify plausible relationships between explanatory and prediction variables; assess the quality of the information; determine the extent to which the information at hand can be used to predict future outcomes. Utilising all this information to develop a picture of The market The customer base The delivery side of things, ie the channels to market, infrastructure requirements, product offerings, etc What are the significant drivers that influence profit The supply side and demand side price elasticity models where applicable Appropriate econometric models How the data looks, ie graph some data a picture paints a thousand words The beginnings of predictive models based on what is now known After all this you may need to go back and get more data if there is not enough information to develop suitable models. Knowledge base Endure Data Science and Business Intelligence Page 10

11 Predictive models Once the knowledge base is established then the next step is to generate the predictive models This is the very general predictive modelling structure used for statistical analysis and ultimately it can take many forms. Y is often called the dependent variable and it is generally the thing you want to predict such as profit, revenue, phone sales, etc. f(x) is the model that builds on the knowledge and assumptions about the driver s x variables. The key is to get both the driver s x and the relationships between them and Y, correct. e is the error, risk, unknown, stochastic term assumed generally to have a normal distribution with mean 0 and standard deviation of s. e can be time dependent as in time series forecasting or time independent as in multiple regression or econometric models and data mining models. A statistical predictive model, Y = f(x) + e, for each month (t) might be Y(t) = Customer Sales(t) * {Average Customer Initial purchase Yield(t) + ½ Average Customer months spend (t)} + e The full year revenue forecast for sales would therefore be the sum of Y(t) for each month of the year. The triangle that makes it all happen While you can get the tools (the data and IT systems, etc) all established, you are not likely to gain full benefit from your predictive analytics without have the right People doing the right Processes with the right Tools on an ongoing basis. This is where a Predictive Analytics Road Map adds a great deal of value. Endure Data Science and Business Intelligence Page 11

12 Challenge if you accept Use predictive analytics to forecast detailed product revenue for the rest of this year and then for the next 3 years In this case utilise your organisation s General ledger (GL). This can provide many thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of financial and non-financial accounts. The data elements which might exist in your GL (financial and physical) systems include financial and non-financial account codes, organisation and customer codes and Time/Date attributes. The atomic level data will need to be aggregate into a multi level product, measure and organisation/customer grouping hierarchies to begin with (using standard OLAP data architecture and functionality). All in line with organisational structures and strategic priorities. Also establish a series of measure hierarchies providing the physical and yield driver elements for reports, models and forecast calculations. Establish version control for audit and comparison purposes In order to make appropriate operational business decisions, this approach provides the necessary level of detail not available with any top down, market driven or judgement based approaches. Ensure aggregation is consistent across the organisation, otherwise collaboration cannot occur and the effort to provide a robust and defendable forecast or predictive analytical process fails. (put this into a caption) The next page gives an example of a mathematical driver model which enables predictive analytics to be used to drive the outcome. Warning Take care working with aggregated low level variance Endure Data Science and Business Intelligence Page 12

13 Predict this as an example Customer net Growth for Period Gross Revenue This simple model utilises the customer sales and cancellations to determine net customer growth as well as combining Sales Yields to generate a value for gross revenues. Predictive Analytics can be applied to the Relevant Drivers of the model (the grey boxes) or they can be applied to the Customer net growth and Gross Revenue themselves. For our purposes we will focus on the Customer adds to illustrate the Predictive Analytics approach. Endure Data Science and Business Intelligence Page 13

14 Dummy Data Used Dummy Data Used Additive Winters (exponential smoothing) Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE) 5.76 What on Earth are these? These graphs show a time series forecast for the customer adds (or sales) driver for the model on the previous page. The information is monthly sales from 2007 which is then forecasted using two different types of time series forecasting model forms. For the purpose of this ebook we wont go deeply into the models themselves other than to say they are a type of predictive analytics model which are used to forecast future values. In this case they are being used to forecast the customer monthly sales. Auto Regressive iterative Moving Average (Arima) (pdq) 200 (PDQ) 100 no intercept MAPE 7.71 The Black dots are the historical data. The vertical dotted blue line is the forecast date. The red line is the model which has been fitted to the historical data and then used to forecast into future months. The pink shaded areas are the 95% Confidence Interval generated by the different models. Generally, the lower the MAPE the smaller the difference between the values of the fitted model and the actual black dots (actual historical data). The MAPE is a statistical measure that aids in determining if the model is close to lining up with the historical results. Unfortunately a low MAPE does not always guarantee the best Predictive Analytics model is selected. Endure Data Science and Business Intelligence Page 14

15 Black-box approach would be to accept smallest MAPE, ie Additive Winters model However Business knowledge may drive an alternate outcome Do you need to capture seasonality? Do you need to capture short, medium or long term trends? Work to incorporate historical events in modelling, e.g. step functions in June 2010 and January If you are wanting to capture past events then you will need to user ARIMA type models. This is not the one with the smallest MAPE currently. An alternate approach is to consider other statistics such as White Noise and distribution of errors (are they normally distributed, etc) As a starting point, go back to predictive analytics theory and work with Y = f(x) + e Revisit Y = F(x) + e Y is the predictor variable F(x) is the function of explanation variables x e - is the error we get when we haven t got the right function f() in place or we may have missed an explanation variable or we may not have captured the correlation between the variables completely. The power of statistics is to get the function and explanation variables to a position where the error has an approximate normal distribution, an average value of 0 and a known variance. Take care you don t exceed 4:1 ratio of historical data to forecast horizon While this only applies to the actual results we don t know the actual outcomes as yet for future forecasts - the theory is that if we get the errors distributed normally around an average value of 0, we have a statistically good model. Endure Data Science and Business Intelligence Page 15

16 Looking at the error distributions for the same models as shown on page 14. Additive Winters (exponential smoothing) Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE) 5.76 What on Earth are these? These graphs are histograms of the errors of the Prediction models for customer sales. The pink boxes are the histogram bars The Red line is the estimated normal distribution of the results The blue line is the smoothed distribution of the errors The closer the red and blue lines come together the more the error results will be normally distributed. Auto Regressive iterative Moving Average (Arima) (pdq) 200 (PDQ) 100 no intercept MAPE 7.71 You can also see that that each graph has a peak around 0 which shows that on average the prediction models do come close to the historical data. Why is it important to have the peak at 0? It means that the model is pretty good at guessing the past, which is a good indicator that it will be OK for estimating possible future values. So What! You can see by these two graphs that the model with the lowest MAPE the Winters Additive Model - does not generate the distribution of errors that is closer to the normal (red) distribution. Endure Data Science and Business Intelligence Page 16

17 Dummy Data Used There can be a degree of professional judgement in using Predictive Analytics models. In practice, the most appropriate statistical forecasts are selected based on a combination of factors including Business knowledge Statistical goodness of fit Forecast quality controls For completeness and to finish this example, the Predictive Analytics model results for Customer Sales can be loaded into the model on page 13 along with the predict values for the other drivers and let the model calculate the resulting gross revenue. Arima (pdq) 200 (PDQ) 100 no intercept MAPE 7.71 Challenge what happens when you have to do this for thousands of predict variables & models? Endure Data Science and Business Intelligence Page 17

18 International Institute of Forecasters research It has been demonstrated many times by the international forecasting community ( ) that by combining a number of independent and different forecasting and prediction techniques/models, the final view will provide a more accurate and reliable forecast than any one view on its own. What might be simple way of collaborating different views? 1/3 of the (a Top Down Market view + a Bottom up detailed view + an independent statistical predictive analytics view) Alternatively, throughout the process an agreed position can be reached utilising inputs for the 3 major techniques. Or it could be as complex as using a historical scoring process based on the level of bias of previous predictions from various sources. The following process has been used in practice to gain a collaborated final position. Endure Data Science and Business Intelligence Page 18

19 Assess current predictive analytics views Summarise statistical predictive analytics forecasts Evaluate in context with past, current and proposed business initiatives and external factors where relevant Modify forecasts to accommodate for business initiatives Provide draft position using these forecasts Present to subject matter experts and capture their feedback; modify explanatory variable forecasts where appropriate Update final views to reflect modified forecasts and assumptions and consolidate results for total organisational outlook Endure Data Science and Business Intelligence Page 19

20 One last thought before we finish If you are looking to undertake a large number of predictive analytic modelling tasks on a regular (say monthly) basis, then unless you have an army of highly skilled data scientists and analysts, you will need to implement a platform that can assist in completing the work. Some attributes the platform needs to have Strong linkages between financial, customer and operational level data for predictive analytics and forecasting purposes. Regular and timely automated, consistent, managed data extractions. Access to powerful trajectory and statistical based forecasting and analytical applications via MS Excel and custom Graphic User Interfaces (GUI s). Access to sophisticated large volume (millions of records) data management and web hosting Dashboard and Business Reporting applications. Seamless integration with Microsoft Office Excel, Word and PowerPoint. Genuine multiuser, workflow management application for as many concurrent users as needed. Utilises OnLine Analytical Processing (OLAP) functionality for ease of dissecting data information stores and building analytic driver models. So how did you go with the challenge? Contact us now to discuss the ways it can work for you and your organisation at Endure Data Science and Business Intelligence Page 20

21 We d love to hear from you. Terry Simmonds Principal Consultant and Founder Endure Data Science and Business Intelligence If you would like a hand predictive analytics, business navigation or putting together your Data Science road map then please get in contact with us at Endure DS & BI. You can phone Australia on , write to us at or follow Terry on LinkedIn. Feel free to share this ebook. We wish you all the best with implementing your prediction analytics Endure Data Science and Business Intelligence Page 21

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