The Gartner Scenario For 2010: The Current State and Future Direction of the IT Industry

Transcription

1 The Gartner Scenario For 2010: The Current State and Future Direction of the IT Industry Martin Gutberlet RVP Gartner Germany Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view. These materials can be reproduced only with written approval from Gartner. Such approvals must be requested via Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.

2 A Key Challenge for CIOs You endured 2009 staff and budget cuts without harming the enterprise. You also delivered enhancements, upgrades and projects during a period that you described as busy or very busy. Your reward? Develop plans on how to deliver business growth enabling IT services in 2010 and 2011 without IT budget funding rising above 2009's actual spending levels. The Era of 0% IT Budget Growth?

3 Key Issues 1. Which economic and business trends and conditions will affect business and IT executives most during 2010 and beyond? 2. Where will IT managers spend their "new" money first once the recession is over? 3. Which trends will unfold in the longer term that will affect the IT industry most?

4 The Time to Plan for a Return to Business Growth Is Now! -2.6% -2.5% -2.3% -2.8% -7.5% -6.0% -1.0% -1.0% -7.5% -3.9% -6.5% +8.1% -0.3% -4.3% +5.6% -6.1% +2.7% +7.2% -0.7% -6.8% +5.6% +2.6% -0.1% 0.0% -0.9% +0.9% Source: IHS Global Insight September World GDP Growth Rate -2.6% 2009 World GDP Growth Rate = -2.2%

5 The Time to Plan for a Return to Business Growth Is Now! +2.2% +2.0% -2.3% -2.8% % +2.9% -1.0% +1.5% +0.8% -6.5% +10.1% +3.6% -4.3% +7.0% +0.0% +3.5% +7.2% -0.7% -6.8% +5.6% +2.6% -0.1% +2.8% -0.9% +2.3% Source: IHS Global Insight September World GDP Growth Rate -2.6% 2010 World GDP Growth Rate = +2.0%

6 Where Will Business Growth Return? % Changes in in 2010 vs. vs Industry Sector Sales By By Regions (Nominal $US) Retail Trade 0% + 2% + 2% Insurance and Pensions + 2.8% + 2.6% + 6.0% Wholesale Trade + 3.4% + 3.5% + 8.6% Banking and Related Financial + 3.3% + 3.8% +10.0% Manufacturing + 3.2% + 3.0% % Utilities + 6.7% + 7.5% + 9.1% Public Administration and Defense + 7.1% + 7.2% % Source: Global Insight World Industry Service Forecast Tables, May 2009

7 The State of the IT Industry: WW IT Spending and Forecast by IT Sector (US$ B) Market Segment 2008 Spending 2009 Spending 2010 Spending Computing Hardware Annual Growth 2.5% -16.5% 0.0% Software Annual Growth 7.9% -2.1% 4.8% IT Services Annual Growth 8.3% -3.5% 4.5% Telecom 1,958 1,879 1,940 Annual Growth 5.6% -4.0% 3.2% All IT 3,372 3,198 3,304 Annual Growth 6.2% -5.2% 3.3%

8 2009 CEO Priorities Are Very Clear Cutting Operating Costs 68% Increasing Revenue Preserving Cash Sourcing Fresh Capital 25% 45% 53% Liquidating Assets 9% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: Business Roundtable June 2009 Image: MS Clipart

9 Shifting CIO Priorities CIO Agenda 2008 Top 3 Business Expectations Improving business processes Attracting, retaining new customers Creating new products, services CIO Strategies Delivering business growth projects Linking business and IT strategy Attracting, retaining IT personnel Top 3 Technology Priorities Business intelligence Enterprise applications Servers and storage technologies CIO Agenda 2009 Top 3 Business Expectations Improving business processes Reducing enterprise cost Improving workforce effectiveness CIO Strategies Linking business and IT strategy Reducing cost of IT Delivering business growth projects Top 3 Technology Priorities Business intelligence Enterprise applications Servers and storage technologies

10 CIO: Increases in CIO Budgets Over Previous Year, 1997 to 2009 (WW and by %) 18.0% 16.0% 15.0% 15.9% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 9.7% 10.1% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 1.6% 2.5% 2.7% 3.0% 3.2% -4.7% = Trend Line

11 Applications Q. Q. Have Have clients clients identified if if applications have have eroded, deteriorated or or experienced any any consistent trend trend of of impaired capabilities caused by by funding cuts cuts in in versus versus 2008? 2008? Yes No Q. Q. Assume a applications budget 25% 25% more more than than 2008's 2008's spending level. level. What What would would you you suspect would would be be the the first first three three most-common areas areas in in which which applications clients clients would would invest? Analyst Answers 1) Information architecture 2) Master data management 3) Performance management 4) Application overhaul 5) Applications life cycle management

12 Business Intelligence and Information Management Q. Q. Have Have clients clients identified if if BIIM BIIM has has eroded, deteriorated or or experienced any any consistent trend trend of of impaired capabilities caused by by funding cuts cuts in in versus versus 2008? 2008? Q. Q. Assume a BIIM BIIM budget 25% 25% more more than than 2008's 2008's spending level. level. What What would would you you suspect would would be be the the first first three three most-common areas areas in in which which BI BI clients clients would would invest? Yes No Analyst Answers Integration BI infrastructure Metadata management Development environment Workflow and collaboration Business Intelligence Platform Information Delivery Reporting Ad hoc query Microsoft Office integration Dashboards Analysis OLAP Scorecarding Visualization Predictive modeling and data mining 1) Improving data quality 2) Decision process platforms 3) Advanced visualization 4) Predictive analysis

13 Enterprise Architect Q. Q. Have Have clients clients identified if if EA EA efforts efforts have have eroded, deteriorated or or experienced any any consistent trend trend of of impaired capabilities caused by by funding cuts cuts in in versus versus 2008? 2008? Yes No Q. Q. Assume a EA EA budget budget at at 25% 25% more more than than 2008's 2008's spending level. level. What What would would you you suspect would would be be the the first first three three mostcommon areas areas in in which which EA EA clients clients most- would would invest? Analyst Answers 1. Communication 2. Collaboration Enterprise Architecture Business Architecture Technology Architecture Information Architecture Solution Architecture Solution Patterns Investment Portfolios Business Investment Business IT Investment Initiatives Run Grow, Transform Project Portfolio Projects Sustain Add and Change Asset Portfolios Business Processes Applications Resources Infrastructure Solution Portfolios 3. Concurrent engineering

14 Infrastructure and Operations Q. Q. Have Have clients clients identified if if I&O I&O efforts efforts have have eroded, deteriorated or or experienced any any consistent trend trend of of impaired capabilities caused by by funding cuts cuts in in versus versus 2008? 2008? Yes No Q. Q. Assume a I&O I&O budget budget at at 25% 25% more more than than 2008's 2008's spending level. level. What What would would you you suspect would would be be the the first first three three mostcommon areas areas in in which which I&O I&O clients clients most- would would invest? Analyst Answers 1) Improved energy efficiency 2) Storage 3) Data center upgrades 4) Windows 7 PC upgrades (in lieu of Vista) 5) Unified communications

15 Program and Portfolio Management Q. Q. Have Have clients clients identified if if PPM PPM has has eroded, deteriorated or or experienced any any consistent trend trend of of impaired capabilities caused by by funding cuts cuts in in versus versus 2008? 2008? Q. Q. Assume a PPM PPM budget budget 25% 25% more more than than 2008's 2008's spending level. level. What What would would you you suspect would would be be the the first first three three most-common areas areas in in which which PPM PPM clients clients would would invest? Yes No Analyst Answers Value Value/Business Benefit 1) Buy software or reimplement the software client's own 2) Invest in more training 3) Hire more project management office staff to monitor projects Cost Project Expense Project Capital Depreciation Ops. Cost App. Maint. Upgrade Expense Time

16 Security and Risk Management Q. Q. Have Have clients clients identified if if SRM SRM has has eroded, deteriorated or or experienced any any consistent trend trend of of impaired capabilities caused by by funding cuts cuts in in versus versus 2008? 2008? Q. Q. Assume a SRM SRM budget 25% 25% more more than than 2008's 2008's spending level. level. What What would would you you suspect would would be be the the first first three three most-common areas areas in in which which SRM SRM clients clients would would invest? Yes No Analyst Answers 1) Identity and access management 2) Governance 3) Vendor risk management 4) Data loss management

17 Sourcing and Vendor Relationships Q. Q. Have Have clients clients identified if if SVRs SVRs have have eroded, deteriorated or or experienced any any consistent trend trend of of impaired capabilities caused by by funding cuts cuts in in versus versus 2008? 2008? Q. Q. Assume a SVR SVR budget 25% 25% more more than than 2008's 2008's spending level. level. What What would would you you suspect would would be be the the first first three three most-common areas areas in in which which SVR SVR clients clients would would invest? Yes No Analyst Answers Strategy feeds evaluation and selection Sourcing strategy Phase 1 Sourcing management Phase 4 Phase 3 Phase 2 Evaluation and selection Contract development 1) Vendor management tools and competencies 2) Spend analysis tools 3) Automate the procurement processes

18 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle for 2009 expectations Wireless Power Internet TV 3-D Printing Augmented Reality Surface Computers Mobile Robots Behavioral Economics Cloud Computing E-Book Readers Social Software Suites Microblogging Green IT Video Telepresence Mesh Networks: Sensor Online Video Corporate Blogging Video Search Home Health Wikis Monitoring Electronic Paper Public Virtual Worlds Tablet PC Idea Management Context Delivery Architecture Web 2.0 Quantum Computing Social Network Analysis Over-the-Air Mobile Phone Payment Systems, 3-D Flat-Panel Displays Developed Markets Human Augmentation RFID (Case/Pallet) Technology Trigger Peak of Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Inflated Expectations time Years to mainstream adoption: less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years more than 10 years Speech Recognition SOA Location-Aware Applications As of July 2009 Plateau of Productivity obsolete before plateau

19 Economies Are Stupid, the Rarest of Times and Two Guiding Philosophies An An Appropriate Time Time to to Prepare for for a Recession Boom October Contraction 0.0% Recession 3. Growth May Flat An An Appropriate Time Time to to Prepare for for a Return Return to to Growth Growth

20 Preparing for the Return to Growth: Two Checklists Looking Outward From the IT Group Looking Inward Toward the IT Group Yes No Yes No Advancing Strategy? Reorganize IT? Growing Revenue? Improve Procurement? Improving Profitability? Negotiation Training? Increasing Productivity? Asset Management? Developing New Capabilities? Signing Authority? Raising Confidence? Project Rationalization? Find Opportunities? Budgeting Overhaul? How Should Clients Become Valued Contributors to Business Growth? What Organizational and Operational Decisions Must Clients Make?

21 2009 and 2010 Will be the Most Important Years for the Rest of Your Career 1. How should you modernize IT infrastructures vis-à-vis cloud computing? 2. How can you significantly improve IT budgeting? 3. How can you become the CEO of IT? 4. Which IT information should you disclose to executives? 5. When should IT practitioners leave the IT organization? 6. Should you support cost savings or business growth? 7. All CIOs: Which IT organization structures work best? 8. New CIOs: Should you abandon legacy IT organizational structures? 9. What type of IT innovation will you lead? 10. Where should you prioritize your IT group's new innovation goals? 11. Can you solve one enterprise information and IT "Grand Challenge" by 2013?

22 Your Action Plan By Year End 2009: Complete plans on how to deliver business growth enabling IT services in 2010 and 2011 without IT budget funding rising to more than 2009's actual spending levels. Publish impact that 2009 funding will have on IT in Decide and begin training on the type of growth you will support.

23 The Gartner Scenario For 2010: The Current State and Future Direction of the IT Industry Martin Gutberlet RVP Gartner Germany Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view. These materials can be reproduced only with written approval from Gartner. Such approvals must be requested via Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.