Evaluating the Effectiveness of Task Overlapping as a Risk Response Strategy in Engineering Projects

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1 Evaluating the Effectiveness of Task Overlapping as a Risk Response Strategy in Engineering Projects Lucas Grèze Robert Pellerin Nathalie Perrier Patrice Leclaire February 2011 CIRRELT Bureaux de Montréal : Bureaux de Québec : Université de Montréal Université Laval C.P. 6128, succ. Centre-ville 2325, de la Terrasse, bureau 2642 Montréal (Québec) Québec (Québec) Canada H3C 3J7 Canada G1V 0A6 Téléphone : Téléphone : Télécopie : Télécopie :

2 Evaluating the Effectiveness of Task Overlapping as a Risk Response Strategy in Engineering Projects Lucas Grèze 1, Robert Pellerin 1,2,*, Nathalie Perrier 1,2, Patrice Leclaire 3 1 Departent of Matheatics and Industrial Engineering, École Polytechnique de Montréal, P.O. Box 6079, Station Centre-ville, Montréal, Canada H3C 3A7 2 Interuniversity Research Centre on Enterprise Networks, Logistics and Transportation (CIRRELT) 3 Institut Supérieur de Mécanique de Paris (Supéca), 3 rue Fernand Hainaut, Saint-Ouen, Cedex France Abstract. In the last two decades, the failure of ultiple engineering projects has highlighted the iportance of adopting risk anageent practices. While risk identification and risk assessent have been widely studied in the literature, only few authors have proposed foral tools for helping project anagers to evaluate the effectiveness of their risk response plan. While soe risk response easures ight be easily validated, overlapping, a coonly used itigation easure in engineering projects is difficult to evaluate because of the coplex interactions between activities and resources. This paper proposes an evaluation odel to easure the effectiveness of overlapping strategy as a risk response in ters of additional cost and total axiu tie reduction. Results based on a large set of generated projects highlight the iportance of three factors in the effectiveness of an overlapping strategy: the nuber of opportunities of overlapping, the axiu overlapping aount allowed, and the level of resource constraints. Keywords. Project anageent, risk anageent, concurrent engineering, activity overlapping, scheduling. Acknowledgeents. This work was supported by the Jarislowsky Foundation, the SNC- Lavalin fir and by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Council of Canada (NSERC). This support is gratefully acknowledged. Results and views expressed in this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of CIRRELT. Les résultats et opinions contenus dans cette publication ne reflètent pas nécessaireent la position du CIRRELT et n'engagent pas sa responsabilité. * Corresponding author: Dépôt légal Bibliothèque et Archives nationales du Québec Bibliothèque et Archives Canada, 2011 Copyright Grèze, Pellerin, Perrier, Leclaire and CIRRELT, 2011

3 1 Introduction Most project schedules are developed in a deterinistic anner where activity durations correspond to a single value, usually the ost likely duration. The assuption is that the duration is known with soe certainty. However, the schedule often contains significant uncertainty, especially in coplex technical environent and in new product developent projects. In fact, these types of projects are usually coposed of a large nuber of interrelated tasks. The coplexity of the inforation flow as well as the possible dependency between tasks ake the project scheduling difficult and unsteady. The potential need of repeating a certain task within the developent process also worsens the situation (Chen et al. 2003). In the last two decades, the failure of ultiple engineering projects has highlighted the iportance of adopting risk anageent practices (Lee et al. 2009; Willias, 1995). Project risk anageent ais at reducing risk by developing a project plan which iniizes the uncertainty and by ipleenting strategies which axiize the probability of achieving the project goals. Various studies have discussed eans of conducting risk anageent by proposing foral processes for achieving project success (Cooper et al. 2005; Patterson and Neaily, 2002; Sith and Merrit, 2002; Chapan, 1997). While the proposed process and the terinology ay differ fro one author to another, the general risk anageent process consists of four ain phases: risk identification, risk assessent, risk response planning, and risk control. Aong these phases, risk identification and risk assessent have been the ost widely studied in the literature. For instance, several risk analysis tools or fraeworks were proposed to identify and quantify the risks in new product developent projects (Choi and Ahn 2010; Kavis et al. 2006). Most traditional risk assessent approaches result in probabilistic analysis. On the other hand, only few authors have proposed foral tools for helping project anagers to evaluate the effectiveness of their risk response plan, also called the risk itigation plan. This plan, which ay include various risk avoidance, risk reduction, and risk transfer easures, is however crucial in coplex projects by foralizing the risk contingency strategy of the organization. While soe risk response easures ight be easily validated, others ight be ore difficult to evaluate in engineering projects. Engineering projects involve any variables and it is often difficult to deterine dependence and correlations between the. For instance, overlapping is a core technique for reducing developent tie (Bogus et al., 2005; Terwiesch et al., 1999; Sith et al., 1995; Sith and Reinertsen 1998) and is widely used as a risk response strategy when anticipating developent delay in the early phases of projects. Overlapping consists in starting an activity before receiving all the final inforation required. Its efficiency for reducing product developent tie has been proved in the aerospace (Sabbagh 1996) and autoobile industries (Clark and Fujioto 1991). However, this practice often causes future rework and odification as new inforation is gained in subsequent activities. In soe cases, rework ay outweigh the benefits of executing activities in parallel (Terwiesch et al., 1999). The real benefits of activity overlapping also largely depend on the nature of the project schedule as overlapping creates interactions between activities. As such, the project topology, as defined by its network and the resource constraints ay greatly affect the effectiveness of overlapping easure. Consequently, the total expected reduction of tie is difficult to evaluate and additional costs associated with rework are often ignored in the project planning CIRRELT

4 phases. It is therefore not surprising to note that ost copanies deterine overlapping strategies on an ad hoc basis without always considering rework (Lin et al., 2009). Most contributions in the literature also failed to consider the ipact on resources when planning overlapping developent activities or are liited to easuring the project tie reduction obtained through overlapping a posteriori by analyzing copleted projects (Terwiesch and Loch, 1999). In this paper, we propose a different approach by presenting a predictive odel taking into account the interactions between activities and resource constraints. Our objective is to propose a contingency plan evaluation odel to easure the effectiveness of overlapping strategy in ters of additional cost and total axiu tie reduction. This paper is based on a deterinistic resource scheduling odel which deterines the optial sets of overlappable activities and odes. The calculated project akespan iproveent can then used as an upper bound which defines the axiu gain that can be obtained by accelerating developent activities through overlapping. These results allow project anagers to deterine if overlapping is an adequate risk reduction easure and what are the additional budget requireents associated with that strategy if ipleented during the project execution. The reainder of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 first presents a brief review of overlapping execution studies. Section 3 describes the proposed solution approach followed by the description of the experiental data set used in this study in Section 4. Coputational results are then presented in section 5. The paper concludes with recoendations for future work in section 6. 2 Literature review Overlapping depends not only on dependency between activities but also on inforation exchange policy between upstrea and downstrea activities and progress evolution. Two groups of odels have been developed in the literature to analyze overlapping interactions. First, any authors consider only couples of activities and no resource constraint to establish the best trade-off between overlapping and rework. For instance, Krishnan et al. (1997) developed a odel-based fraework to anage the overlapping of coupled activities. This odel introduces the concept of inforation evolution and downstrea sensitivity to describe interaction between both activities. Inforation evolution refers to the upstrea generated inforation useful for downstrea activities. Downstrea sensitivity refers to the ipact of a change in upstrea activity on the downstrea activity. The ore significant the ipact is, the higher the sensitivity is. Relying on these concepts, Krishnan (Krishnan, 1996) defined different types of appropriated overlapping strategies: iterative, preeptive, distributive and divisive overlapping. In a siilar anner, Bogus et al. (2006) identified appropriate strategies to efficiently ipleent overlapping in practice. Lin et al. (2009) also iproved the overlapping odel by incorporating the downstrea progress evolution and deterined the optial overlap aount. These odels assue that overlapping paraeters can be derived fro historical data of projects. Other approaches have considered whole projects instead of couples of activities under the assuption that relation between overlap aount and rework is preliinary known for overlappable activities. They ostly use design structure atrix (DSM) to represent dependencies, to iniize feedbacks, and to identify overlapping opportunities between activities. DSMs were introduced by Steward (1981). Aong these odels, Gerk and Qassi (2008) developed an analytic project 2 CIRRELT

5 acceleration linear odel via activity crashing, overlapping and substitution with resource constraints. Wang and Lin (2009) developed a stochastic overlapping process odel to assess schedule risks. Their siulation odel considers iterations and probabilities of rework. Iterations are ostly defined as interaction between design activities which lead to rework caused by feedbacks fro downstrea activities. However, these odels do not take into account resource constraints, except for Cho and Eppinger (2005) who introduced a siulation odel with stochastic activity durations, overlapping, iterations, rework, and resource constraints for soe activities. They showed that these constraints can delay soe overlapped activities and delay the project. All these odels assue a siple linear relationship between rework and overlap aount with an upper bound and a lower bound. 3 The proposed approach A project is defined by a set of n activities, including two fictitious activities 0 and n+1, which correspond to the project start and project end, with zero processing tie. We denote by d j the noinal processing tie of activity j considering that all the final inforation required fro preceding activities are available at its start; in other words, if activity j is processed without overlapping. It is here assued that a project is only coposed of independent and dependent activities. The resulting inforation flow within the project between activities is assued to be unidirectional fro upstrea to downstrea activities. The analysis of inforation exchanges between dependent coupled activities enables to categorize the into non- overlappable and overlappable ones. The forer represents the case where a downstrea activity requires the final output inforation fro an upstrea activity to be executed or the copletion of the upstrea activity. The latter represents the case where a downstrea activity can begin with preliinary inforation and receives final update at the end of the upstrea activity. This relation provides the opportunity to overlap two activities so that a downstrea activity can start before an upstrea activity is finished. While the nonoverlappable activities are connected with the classical finish-to-start precedence constraint, the overlappable ones are connected with a finish-to-start-plus-lead-tie precedence constraint where the lead-tie accounts for the aount of overlap (Cho and Eppinger, 2005). Figure 1 shows the overlapping process of an overlappable couple of activities i and j. The downstrea activity j starts with preliinary inputs fro the upstrea activity i. The aount of overlap, α ij, is expressed as a fraction of the downstrea activity duration. An additional rework is often necessary to accoodate the changes in the upstrea inforation in the downstrea developent. The expected duration of this rework is denoted by r ij. CIRRELT

6 Figure 1: Overlapping process of two activities d i i Preliinary inforation Final inforation j α ij. d j r ij d j tie An iportant part of the literature on overlapping process is dedicated to the deterination of the optial overlap aount for a couple of activities without resource constraint (Krishnan et al., 1997; Roeer et al., 2000; Terwiesch and Loch, 1999). However, the optial overlap aounts for a resource-constrained project coposed of several couples of overlappable activities are not necessarily set to the optial values found for each couple of activities (Cho and Eppinger, 2005; Gerk and Qassi, 2008; Browning and Eppinger, 2002). To deterine the optial schedule when overlapping is allowed, we propose a linear 0-1 integer prograing odel which is based on a previous odel developed by Berthaut et al. (2011). Within this resource constraint scheduling odel, presented in annex, overlapping is supposed to be perfored for discrete values of overlap aount. In practice, however, scheduling is perfored on a period by period basis and activity progress is easured according to the copletion of ilestones, corresponding to activity deliverables. Therefore, we consider a finite nuber of different overlap aounts aligned with activity ilestones. These different values constitute the different feasible odes. Each ode is characterized by a specific aount of overlap and associated rework duration. In order to represent the ipact of overlapping on the execution cost, the overlapping costs is assued to be coposed of the cost of rework and the additional coordination cost. The coordination cost is considered negligible, which is also the case in previous works (Gerk and Qassi, 2008; Krishnan et al., 1997). It is assued that rework cost is considered as a linear function of the tie spent on rework, where the linear factor is the average wages of the teas per unit of tie. It is also assued that all resources have the sae period rate (i.e. the resource use cost is estiated at $100 per period for all resources). Experiental results are presented in the next section. 4 Experiental data In order to deonstrate the iportance of project characteristics, and the necessity to consider resource constraints when evaluating the axiu tie reduction that can be obtained by adopting overlapping easures, we tested the proposed approach with different projects having siilar characteristics. 4 CIRRELT

7 A reference project consisting of 30 activities was used to build our expiretal data set. The PROGEN project generator (Kolish et al., 1992) was used to generate coparable project networks and resource deand. All projects involved 4 renewable resources. As in Kolisch et al. (1992), we use three ain paraeters to define our project data set: the project coplexity C, the resource factor RF, and the resource strength factor RS. The coplexity paraeter is defined as the average nuber of arcs per node. This paraeter describes the coplexity in relations and dependences between activities and is used to construct the activity-on-node project networks. The resource factor is calculated as the average portion of requested resources per activity. If RF=1, all 4 resources will be needed for each activity. Instead, if RF=0.5, then each activity will require in average 2 different types of resources. The quantity of each requested resource is randoly calculated between the iniu and axiu allowed values. Finally, the resource strength factor characterizes the relation between resource deand and resource availability. Kolish et al. (1992) present a ethodology to deterine resource availability with this RS factor: Q k = Q + Round ( RS *( Qk,ax Q, in )) k, in k where Q k,in is the iniu acceptable value for the resource k availability to coplete the project, equal to the axiu resource k request per job. Q k,ax is calculated as the peak deand of resource k in the initial akespan, without resource constraint and with earliest start schedule. Q k is the resource k availability during the whole project. The RS factor therefore represents the influence of resource constraints on the project. In our design of experient, we fixed a edian value for C and RF, 2.1 and 0.5 respectively, and generated 9 projects with siilar network characteristics and resource deand. For each project, three different characteristics of resource availability were created (RS=1, 0.75 and 0.5). Finally, 27 coparable projects without overlap data are generated (9 for each value of RS). Three additional paraeters were considered to generate overlap data. First, we set the factor R the percentage of overlappable couples of activities aong all couples of dependent activities. This factor illustrates opportunity of overlapping, and reflects a strategy of project execution. Indeed, a project can allow a ore or less iportant nuber of couples of overlappable activities depending on the nature of the activities and strong or flexible dependency relationship between the. In the literature, soe authors present any cases of overlapping situations, considering fro 100% to 10% of overlappable activities aong all couples of activities (Gerk and Qassi, 2008). In order to present different cases encountered in practice, three different values of R, 20%, 40% and 60% we here considered. The second factor C ax is the axiu allowable aount of overlap. The value of this factor is deterined by activity ilestones and previous inforation needed to start the downstrea activity. All overlappable activities were assued to have siilar ilestones and the sae axiu aount of overlap. In the literature, authors have used various axiu of overlap (Gerk and Qassi 2008; Wang and Lin, 2009). In this paper, three different values of C ax were considered: 25%, 50% and 75%, which correspond to a conservative, edian and aggressive possibility of overlapping execution, respectively. Figure 2 illustrates the different odes associated to these values. CIRRELT

8 Figure 2: Possible values of C ax and associated odes The third factor β is the aount of rework per period of overlapping. This aount depends on the nature of the project and its associated risks. This aount, set to a value of 40%, is here considered to be the sae for all activities. In practice, the project planner has to deterine the aount of rework for each overlappable activity before using an overlapping strategy, but our assuption allows to obtain an upper bound which defines the axiu gain that can be obtained by accelerating developent activities through overlapping, and the axiu induced cost. The three factors, R, C ax and β were used to generate overlapping data for each project. Overlappable couples of dependent activities are randoly selected in the list of dependent activities. An opportunity list is established with the highest value of R. Then, for each value of R, a choice is ade randoly in this list of couples of activities. The percentage of overlappable couples is equal to the defined value of R. Once the overlappable couples are identified, the overlap ode data is generated, with overlap aount per ode and associated rework. Table 1 suarizes our design of experient. The resource strength factor RS, the percentage of overlappable couples of activities aong the total couples of dependent activities and the axiu aount of overlapping C ax, were all tested at three levels on 9 siilar project topologies generated with PROGEN, resulting in 243 projects. Table 1: Variable paraeter levels 5 Coputational results RS R C ax The 243 generated projects were ipleented in AMPL Studio v1.6.j and solved with CPLEX Because of overlapping opportunities defined in our data generation procedure, the results in ters of optial tie reduction vary for each project. As each project has a different initial akespan, the effectiveness of overlapping strategy was easured as the percentage of tie reduction when coparing the calculated project akespan with overlap with the initial project schedule. Additional costs resulting fro rework in also easured in a siilar anner. The resource cost is estiated at $100 per period and we considered a $20,000 fixed cost. 6 CIRRELT

9 The effects of the different paraeters were analyzed by conducting ANOVA. The resulting Pareto chart, presented in figure 3, indicates that the three factors explain 80% of variation in effectiveness of overlapping in ters of tie reduction and cost increase. The chosen factors thus have a significant ipact in overlapping effectiveness. We also observed iportant interaction between the percentage of overlapping opportunities R and the axiu allowed aount of overlapping and between the availability of resources and the two other factors. These interactions clearly show the indirect ipact of resource constraints on the effectiveness of overlapping as a risk response strategy. Figure 3: Pareto chart of standardized effects R 16,76228 CMax 10,24783 RS 5, R x Cax RS x RS RS x R RS x Cax Cax x Cax RxR 3, , , , ,955334, p=,05 Fro figure 4, one can see the ean effect of RS in the effectiveness of overlapping strategy as a risk response in ters of additional cost and total axiu tie reduction. RS has a strong ipact on effectiveness but is not significant in ters of cost influence. Indeed, the reduction of RS decreases the opportunity of overlapping and the resulting tie gain. This is due to strong resource constraints reducing overlapping opportunities. The large gap between RS=0.75 and RS=0.5, where the gain varies fro 8.8% to 5.8% shows the iportance of resource constraints and the necessity to take the into account when scheduling projects. Indeed, overlapping increase the ipact of resource constraints as concurrent activities ay require the sae resources at the sae tie. The tie of rework has also an ipact on resource constraints as every overlapped activity requires additional labor tie due to the addition of rework. Figure 4: RS ipact in ters of tie reduction and cost Mean Plot of Gain grouped by RS Mean Mean Plot of Cost grouped by RS Mean Results in Resultat.stw 12v*243c Mean±0,95 Conf. Interval Results in Resultat.stw 12v*243c Mean±0,95 Conf. Interval 11,0% 4,0% 10,0% 3,5% 9,0% 3,0% 8,0% Gain Cost 2,5% 7,0% 2,0% 6,0% 5,0% 1,5% 4,0% 1,0 0,7 0,5 1,0% 1,0 0,7 0,5 RS RS CIRRELT

10 The ipact of altering the nuber of overlapping opportunities R can be seen in figure 5. As R increases, the effectiveness of overlapping increases too, fro 2.5% to alost 12%. This is due to the nuerous overlapping opportunities which allow to bypass any resource constraints and finally to decrease the tie of execution of the project. The ipact on cost is concave: the greater the nuber of overlappable couples of activities is, the less iportant the influence of R on cost is. This can be explained by the increasing nuber of overlap opportunities which allows sall overlapping to be efficient. This point highlights the significance of identifying correctly the couples of overlappable activities in the risk response planning phase. Figure 5: R ipact in ters of tie reduction and cost Mean Plot of Gain grouped by R Mean Mean Plot of Cost grouped by R Mean Results in Resultat.stw 12v*243c Mean±0,95 Conf. Interval Results in Resultat.stw 12v*243c Mean±0,95 Conf. Interval 14,0% 4,5% 13,0% 4,0% 12,0% 11,0% 3,5% 10,0% 3,0% 9,0% Gain 8,0% Cost 2,5% 7,0% 2,0% 6,0% 5,0% 1,5% 4,0% 1,0% 3,0% 2,0% 20% 40% 60% 0,5% 20% 40% 60% R R The increase in the axiu overlapping factor results in a concave increase of gained tie (cf. figure 6). Significant overlapping odes allow to reduce effectively the tie of execution of the project. However, resource constraints tend to reduce the possibilities of ajor overlapping. On the contrary, the ipact on cost sees to be linear fro 0.8% to 4%. The axiu overlap aount allowed has a direct ipact on rework tie. Figure 6: C ax ipact in ters of tie reduction and cost Mean Plot of Gain grouped by CMax Results in Resultat.stw 12v*243c Mean Mean±0,95 Conf. Interval Mean Plot of Cost grouped by CMax Results in Resultat.stw 12v*243c Mean Mean±0,95 Conf. Interval 12% 5,0% 11% 4,5% 10% 4,0% 9% 3,5% Gain 8% 7% Cost 3,0% 2,5% 6% 2,0% 5% 1,5% 4% 1,0% 3% 25% 50% 75% 0,5% 25% 50% 75% CMax CMax These coputational results show that a high resource level cobined with nuerous opportunities of overlapping and a high percentage of axiu overlapping favor overlapping to be an efficient risk response strategy when anticipating project delay. The ost iportant factor affecting the effectiveness of overlapping as a risk response strategy is the nuber of overlappable couples of activities. Resource availability has less direct ipact but this factor has a high interaction with the other factors. Finally, the axiu aount of overlapping, as well as its interaction with the nuber 8 CIRRELT

11 of overlappable couples, is iportant to be considered when evaluating the effectiveness of overlapping easures. The ost iportant interaction, between the nuber of overlappable couples and the axiu aount of overlapping, were further analyzed by studying three scenarios. The first one is a project with any overlappable couples of activities and a low aount of axiu overlapping. The second one is a edian one in ters of opportunities of overlapping and of axiu aount of overlapping. The third one is a strategy with few overlappable couples and high aount of axiu overlapping. As shown in Table 2, the first and second strategies are ore effective than the third one but the edian strategy results in additional cost. This result supports the fact that the nuber of overlappable activities greatly affects the effectiveness of an overlapping strategy. Table 2: Mean ipact of project characteristics in overlapping effectiveness 6 Conclusion R C ax Tie reduction Cost increase 60% 25% 8.4% 1.1% 40% 50% 8.3% 2.4% 20% 75% 4.6% 2.0% This study shows the influence of three ain factors influencing the effectiveness of adopting overlapping as a risk itigation easure when anticipating project delay in early phases of engineering projects. The percentage of overlappable activities is a predoinant factor of effectiveness while having a low ipact on additional cost associated with rework. Overlapping effectiveness increases with nuber of overlappable activities by creating ore opportunities to resolve resource constraints, and therefore reducing the total project duration. The axiu aount of overlapping allowed also ipacts the effectiveness of overlapping easures. However, the increase in project tie reduction coes with the expense of additional work and costs. Allowing iportant aount of overlapping ust be studied carefully as it ay create additional risks for the project. The ipact of resource constraints on the axiu tie reduction that can be obtained through overlapping easure is another iportant result of this study. First, our experiental results show that strong resource constraints greatly reduce the possibilities of overlapping as concurrent activities ay require the sae resources and thus, creating resource conflicts that can be only resolved by delaying soe activities. Consequently, overlapping activities ay in soe cases have no ipact in total project duration. In addition, our results deonstrate that the potential benefits of overlapping easures vary greatly fro one project to another. Even when coparing siilar projects, the axiu gain in tie reduction depends on the characteristics of the initial project schedule. This result deonstrates the usefulness of the proposed approach which relies on a project scheduling odel. CIRRELT

12 We can also conclude that defining risk response strategies relying solely on historical data fro previous projects is not sufficient to adopt an adequate risk response plan. Risk itigation easures ust be assessed by analyzing the ipact of project resources. Historical data are however useful by proving insights when deterining the axiu aount of overlap that should be allowed and by estiating the aount of rework associated with overlapping. We would like also to point out soe liitations of the proposed approach and suggest possible directions for future research. First, our approach relies on an optial scheduling odel. As in ost resource scheduling approaches, coputation tie is an issue when analyzing real projects. In our experients, the nuber of overlapping odes has an iportant ipact on coputational tie, tending to ake ipossible the ipleentation of this upper bound analysis in practice. Future works could develop heuristics or eta-heuristics to copare the effectiveness of different risk response strategy as overlapping. Secondly, we considered the ipact of overlapping on total project duration and assued that the inherent risks of this easure can be siply taking into accounts by considering rework and its related cost. In practice, adopting overlapping ay face other risk eleents, as exposed in the concurrent engineering literature (Kayis et al., 2006). These eleents ust be analyzed as well. Finally, our odel calculates the axiu gain of overlapping easures fro a discrete point of view. A stochastic approach could offer a satisfactory estiation of effectiveness of overlapping, rather than an upper bound. We have also to ention that the calculated upper bound is only feasible at the beginning of the project. As the project progress, this axiu gain decreases. A project rescheduling approach should be adopted within the risk control activities to continuously assess the effectiveness of overlapping as a valid easure to respond to project delay. References Berthaut, F, Grèze L, Pellerin, R, Perrier, N & Hajji A 2011, Optial resource-constraint project scheduling with overlapping odes, subitted for International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Systes Manageent. Bogus, SM, Molenaar, KR & Diekann, JE 2005, Concurrent engineering approach to reducing design delivery tie, Journal of Construction Engineering and Manageent, vol. 131, no. 11, pp Bogus, SM, Molenaar, KR & Diekann, JE 2006, Strategies for overlapping dependent design activities, Construction Manageent and Econoics, vol. 24, pp Browning, TR & Eppinger, SD 2002, Modeling ipacts of process architecture on cost and schedule risk in product developent, IEEE Transactions on engineering anageent, vol. 49, no. 4, pp Chapan, C 1997, Project risk analysis and anageent PRAM the generic process, International Journal of Project Manageent, vol. 15, no. 5, pp Chen, CH, Ling, SF & Chen, W 2003, Project scheduling for collaborative product developent using DSM, International Journal of Project Manageent, vol. 21, pp CIRRELT

13 Cho, SH & Eppinger, SD 2005, A siulation-based process odel for anaging coplex design projects, IEEE Transactions on engineering anageent, vol. 52, no. 3, pp Choi, HG & Ahn, J 2010, Risk analysis odels and risk degree deterination in new product developent: A case study, Journal of Engineering and Technology Manageent, vol. 27, pp Clark, KB & Fujioto, T 1991, Product developent perforance strategy, organization and anageent in the world auto industry, Harvard Business School Press, Boston, MA. Cooper, DF, Greay, S, Rayon, G & Waler, P 2005, Project risk anageent guidelines: Managing risk in large projects and coplex procureents, Jown Wiley and Sons, Ltd. Gerk, JEV & Qassi, RY 2008, Project acceleration via activity crashing, overlapping, and substitution, IEEE Transactions on Engineering Manageent, vol. 55, no. 4, pp Kayis, B, Arndt, G, Zhou, M, Savci, S, Khoo, YB & Rispler, A 2006, Risk Quantification for New Product Design and Developent in a Concurrent Engineering Environent, CIRP Annals - Manufacturing Technology, vol. 55, no. 1, pp Kolisch, R, Sprecher, A & Drexl, A 1992, Characterization and generation of a general class of resource-constrained project scheduling probles - Easy and hard instances, Research Report 301, Institut für Betriebswirtschaftslehre, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel Krishnan, V 1996, Managing the siultaneous execution of coupled phases inconcurrent product developent, IEEE Transactions on Engineering Manageent, vol. 43, no. (2), pp Krishnan, V, Eppinger SD & Whitney DE 1997, A odel-based fraework to overlap product developent activities, Manageent Science, vol. 43, no. 4, pp Lin, J, Chai, KH, Brobacher, AC & Wong, YS 2009, Optial overlapping and functional interaction in product developent, European Journal of Operational Research, vol. 196, no. 3, pp Lee, E, Park, Y, & Shin, JG 2009, Large engineering project risk anageent using a Bayesian belief network, Expert Systes with Applications, vol. 36, pp Patterson, FD & Neailey, K 2002, A risk register database syste to aid the anageent of project risk, International Journal of Project Manageent, vol. 20, no. 5, pp Roeer, TA, Ahadi, R & Wang, RH 2000, Tie-cost trade-offs in overlapped product developent, Operations Research, vol. 48, no. 6, pp Sabbagh, K 1996, Twenty-first century jet, Scribner, New York. Sith, PG & Merritt, GM 2002, Proactive Risk Manageent: Controlling Uncertainty in Product Developent, Productivity Press, New York. Sith, P & Reinertsen, D 1995, Developing Products in Half the Tie, New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold. Sith, PG & Reinertsen, DG 1998, Developing Products in Half the Tie, 2nd edn. John Wiley, New York. Steward, DV 1981, The design structure syste: a ethod for anaging the design of coplex systes, IEEE Transactions on Engineering Manageent, vol. 28, pp CIRRELT

14 Terwiesch, C & Loch, CH 1999, Measuring the effectiveness of overlapping developent activities, Manageent Science, vol. 45, no. 4, pp Wang, JT & Lin, YI 2009, An overlapping process odel to assess schedule risk for new product developent, Coputers & Industrial Engineering, vol. 57, no. 2, pp Willias, T 1995, A classified bibliography of recent research relating to project risk anageent, European Journal of Operational Research, vol. 85, no. 1, pp CIRRELT

15 Annex: The linear 0-1 integer progra Table 1: Sybols and definitions Sybol Definition S Set of activities n Nuber of non-duy activities E = A P Set of teporal or precedence constraints i j (i, j) Precedence constraint d j Processing tie of activity j A Set of couples of overlappable activities P Set of couples of non-overlappable activities A(j) Set of iediate predecessors of activity j that are overlappable with activity j P(j) Set of iediate predecessors of activity j that are not overlappable with activity j Pred(j) = A(j) P(j) j S Set of iediate predecessors of activity j R R k R jk j α ij r j T t = 0,..,T EF j j Set of renewable resources Constant aount of available units of renewable resource k Per period usage of activity j of renewable resource k Nuber of execution odes of activity j Aount of overlap duration between activities i and j in execution ode, expressed as a fraction of d j Expected aount of rework in activity j in execution ode Upper bound of the project s akespan Periods Earliest possible finish tie of activity j Latest possible finish tie of activity j Each activity j ust finish within the tie window { EF,..., } j j with respect to the precedence relations and the activity durations. They can be derived fro the traditional forward recursion and backward recursion algoriths considering that the project ust start at tie 0 and that T constitutes an upper bound of the project akespan (i.e. the su of processing ties of all activities) (Hartann, 1999). We define the decision variables (i.e. the finish ties and the overlapping odes) as follows: X jt 1 if activity j is executed in ode and finished at tiet = 0 otherwise CIRRELT

16 and [, ] j S, t [ 0,T ] 1 (1) j The decision on the activity odes can be classed into three cases. On the one hand, if activities (i,j) are not overlappable, the decision is siply not to overlap. On the other hand, if activities (i, j) are overlappable, these activities can be either overlapped ( > 1) or executed in series (=1). The resource-constrained scheduling proble with overlapping can then be forulated as a linear 0-1 n integer progra as follows: Miniize + 1 n + 1 t X n + 1,t, (2) Subject to: i i = 1t= EFi j j = 1 t= EF t X it ij j j ( t d j 1 ij) rj) = 1t= EFj jt ij = 1t= EFn+ 1 ( α X j S, i Pred( j) jt (3) α X Y j S, i A( j) (4) j i i j j t Xit ( t dj (1 ij) rj) X jt T (1 Yij) = 1t= EFi n R jk j= 2 = 1 i i = 1 t= EFi j j = 1 t= EFj t X = 1t= EFj t+ d 1+ r j j j X it b= t jb j j = 1 t= EFj α j S, i A( j) (5) R k k R t [ 1,T ] (6) t X jt j S, i A( j) (7) X = 1 j S (8) jt { 0,1} X j S jt { 0,1}, t [ 0,T ] and [, ] Y j S, i Pred( j) ij 1 (9) (10) j The objective (2) iniizes the finish tie of the duy sink activity and therefore, the project akespan. Constraint (3) represents the finish-to-start precedence constraints, with a negative lead tie in the case of overlapping. According to constraints (4), if two overlappable activities (i,j) are overlapped, then Y ij =1. If activities (i,j) are not overlapped, then Y ij is unrestricted and constraints (5) are not restrictive. Constraints (6) define the resource constraints. Constraints (7) guarantee that the downstrea activity of a couple of overlappable activities can not finish before the upstrea activity finish tie. Constraints (8) ensure that each activity is assigned one activity ode and one finish tie. Finally, constraints (9) and (10) define the aforeentioned binary decision variables. 14 CIRRELT

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