Pacific ENSO update INFORMATIVO CLIMATICO E l Niño Southern Oscillation

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1 Instituto del Mar del Perú Nro. 9 Junio 1997 Pacific ENSO update INFORMATIVO CLIMATICO E l Niño Southern Oscillation I NS TITUTO D EL M AR D E L E R U * * C I E N C I A Y T E C P O N O L A I G EDITADO POR : ING. MARIO RAMIREZ ALVITES ( INGENIERO PESQUERO ) OF. COMUNICACIONES INSTITUTO DEL MAR DEL PERÚ INDICE : Pag. 1. Presentación 1 2. Pronóstico al 31 Mayo Pronóstico Bureau Metereology Research Center - BMRC 2 - Pronóstico Climate Modeling Branch CMB / NCEP 3 - Pronóstico University of British Columbia 5 - Pronóstico Climate Diagnostics Center - CDC 6 3. Anexo 7 Informativo de la Oficina de Comunicaciones del Instituto del Mar del Perú - IMARPE, sobre el Sistema de Observación Climático Global Integrado, y pronóstico ENSO, accesando a través de INTERNET a organizaciones como: - National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration NOAA - National Oceanographic Data Center NODC - Australian Oceanographic Data Center AODC - Japan Oceanographic Data Center JODC - British Oceanographic Data Center BODC - Pacific Marine Environmen. Laboratory PMEL - National Climate Data Center NCDC - Center Ocean-Atmos. Prediction Studies COAPS - Tropical Ocean-Global Atmospheric TOGA - World Ocean Circulation Experiment WOCE - Enviromental Modeling Center EMC - National Centers for Environ. Prediction NCEP - Fleet Numerical Meteor. Oceanography Center FNMOC - Forecast System Laboratory FSL - National Environ. Satellite Data Inform. Service NESDIS - Climate Diagnostic Center CDC - Earth Observing System EOS - Geostation. Operational Environ. Satellite GOES - Global Change Data Service GCDS entre otras.

2 2 Ing. Mario Ramirez Alvites Pacific ENSO Update Pronóstico Experimental El Niño Presentación : Utilizando el modelo acoplado Océano-Atmósfera El modelo acoplado océano-atmósfera para el pronóstico de temperaturas del Océano Pacifico Tropical Oriental, ha sido desarrollado por el Dr. Richard Kleeman y colaboradores, en el Bureau of Metereology Research Centre en Melbourne - Australia. El calentamiento asociado a temperaturas por arriba del normal, esta ligado al evento El Niño, mientras que el enfriamiento por debajo de las condiciones normales esta ligado al evento La Niña. El índice NIÑO3 es utilizado para medir estas desviaciones de temperatura. Si el índice es mayor a 1.5, se dice que existen condiciones de un evento El Niño - fuerte. Contrariamente, valores menores a -1.5 indican que existen condiciones de un evento La Niña - fuerte. SKILL OF FORECASTS The skill of the coupled model is comparable with the best models currently available internationally. It has been tested by making forecasts every 3 months for the period 1982 to 1991 inclusively. La línea vertical azul (Marzo 97) indica cuando fueron ingresados los últimos datos al modelo. PRONOSTICO ACTUAL : The current forecast shows strong El Nino conditions developing in the next few months.

3 3 Ing. Mario Ramirez Alvites Pacific ENSO Update slow evolution toward ENSO episode - EL NINO

4 4 Ing. Mario Ramirez Alvites Pacific ENSO Update Figure: Nino-3 and Nino3.4 SST forecasts Time evolution of predicted and observed SST anomalies for the Nino-3 (150W-90W, 5S-5N) and Nino3.4 (170W-120W, 5S-5N) from the NCEP/CMB coupled model (CMP12). The forecasts are for lead times of 1-season (top), 2- seasons (middle) and 3-seasons (bottom). Observed SST anomalies are depicted in solid lines. Forecast SST anomalies are indicated by "+"s. Figure: Nino-3 and Nino3.4 SST forecasts

5 5 Ing. Mario Ramirez Alvites Pacific ENSO Update Date of Forecast: May 20, 1997 Sea surface temperature forecasts in the NINO3.4 region using data up to April 1997 The average tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) in the NINO3.4 region (5N-5S,170W-120W) is often used as an El Nino index. The figure shows our latest forecast using a neural network model trained with data up to April The three panels are for 3-, 6-, and 9-month leadtimes respectively. The black line is the observed SST, and the blue circles are forecasts. Both the 6-month and the 9-month lead models indicate an increase of NINO3.4 in the coming months, possibly producing an El Nino event by the end of The wind data of April 1997 carries a strong warm-event precursor signal.

6 6 Ing. Mario Ramirez Alvites Pacific ENSO Update MODELO INVERSO LINEAL PARA EL PRONOSTICO ENSO (Mayo 1997). Pronóstico de Anomalía de Temperatura Superficial del Mar (ATSM) basado en condiciones iniciales de Feb-Mar-Abril La ATSM ha sido calculada en relación a la climatología estándar COADS , tanto para el período de prueba y este pronóstico. Los datos de temperatura superficial del mar utilizados en este pronóstico han sido proporcionados por la National Centers for Environmental Prediction, cortesía de R. W. Reynolds. El modelo de pronóstico inverso lineal esta descrito en Penland and Magorian (1993, J. Climate, 6). warm episode conditions until end of 1997, then normalization.

7 7 Ing. Mario Ramirez Alvites Pacific ENSO Update A N E XO A) IMAGENES DE ANOMALIA TEMPERATURA SUPERFICIAL MAR GLOBAL FUENTE Pag. - Climate Diagnostics Center - CDC / NOAA 8 - National Environmental Satellite Data and Information 9 Service - NESDIS / NOAA - Fleet Numerical Meterology Oceanographic Center - FNMOC 10 NAVY of U.S.A - Climate Modelling Branch - CMB / NOAA 11 B) Indices de Temperatura Superficial Mar Niño 1, 2, 3, 4 y Imagenes de Anomalia Temperatura Superf. Mar Global 14 Indice Oscilacion Sur 16 - Bureau of Metereology Research Centre - Australia * * * * * * * * * * * *

8 8 Ing. Mario Ramirez Alvites Pacific ENSO Update Fig. 1 Anomalia Temperatura Superficial Mar Global - Semana 25 al 31 Mayo 1997 Fig. 2 Anomalia Temperatura Superficial Mar Global - Prom. Mensual Mayo 1997

9 9 Ing. Mario Ramirez Alvites Pacific ENSO Update Fig. 3 Anomalia Temperatura Superficial Mar Global - 31 Mayo 1997

10 10 Ing. Mario Ramirez Alvites Pacific ENSO Update Fig. 4 Anomalia Temperatura Superficial Mar Global - 03 Junio 1997

11 11 Ing. Mario Ramirez Alvites Pacific ENSO Update Fig. 5 Anomalia Temperatura Superficial Mar Global - 25 al 31 Mayo 1997

12 12 Ing. Mario Ramirez Alvites Pacific ENSO Update Fig. 6 Indices de Temperatura Superficial Mar Niño 1, 2, 3, 4 y 1+2 (25 Mayo 1997)

13 13 Ing. Mario Ramirez Alvites Pacific ENSO Update Fig. 7 Indices de Temperatura Superficial Mar Niño 1, 2, 3, 4 y 1+2 (25 Mayo 1997) Climate Analysis Center + Bureau Metereology research Center

14 14 Ing. Mario Ramirez Alvites Pacific ENSO Update Fig. 8 Anomalia Temperatura Superficial Mar Global - Semana al 25 Mayo 1997

15 15 Ing. Mario Ramirez Alvites Pacific ENSO Update Fig. 9 Anomalia Temperatura Superficial Mar Global - Mayo 1997

16 16 Ing. Mario Ramirez Alvites Pacific ENSO Update Fig. 10 Indice Oscilacion Sur - Año Base: 1972 / 1982 /1987

17 17 Ing. Mario Ramirez Alvites Pacific ENSO Update Fig. 11 Indice Oscilacion Sur - Enero Abril 1997 National Oceanographic Data Center - Ocean List Date: June 02, 1997

18 18 Ing. Mario Ramirez Alvites Pacific ENSO Update EAST PACIFIC SST & SEA LEVEL FOR APRIL 1997 In April SSTs continued at 1.5 to 2.5 C above normal, while sea levels continued to be moderately high. In the latter half of the month sea level anomaly rose precipitously to nearly 30 cm at Baltra. Day of Sea Sfc Temperature Sea Level Height (cm) Apr Baltra Talara Callao Baltra Libertad Callao ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** Anomalies ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 12.3 For further information contact enfield@aoml.noaa.gov or call (305) ** - Data missing due to hardware failure * * * * * * * * * * * * Date: Mon, 2 Jun :20: Originator: ocean_list@gopher.nodc.noaa.gov ATTENTION: DIRECTOR MET SERVICES FINAL SOUTHERN OSCILLATION INDEX BULLETIN Bureau of Meteorology, Darwin Issued at 0910 hours on Monday, 02/06/97 DARWIN MEAN MSL PRESSURE FOR MAY 1997: hpa DARWIN MSL PRESSURE ANOMALY: PLUS 0.9 hpa TAHITI MEAN MSL PRESSURE FOR MAY 1997: hpa TAHITI MSL PRESSURE ANOMALY: MINUS 2.2 hpa SOI: MINUS 25 5 MONTH RUNNING MEAN SOI: MINUS 6 (CENTRED ON MARCH) DARWIN MEAN 0900 MSL PRESSURE FOR MAY 1997: hpa * * * * * * * * * * * WEEKLY TROPICAL CLIMATE NOTE Date: 3 June, 1997

19 19 Ing. Mario Ramirez Alvites Pacific ENSO Update Note: Experimental product; comments are encouraged but please do not distribute further. EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION UPDATE El Nino indications continue to strengthen this week. The Tahiti-Darwin pressure difference fell again, due to another increase in the magnitudeof the Tahiti negative anomaly (- 1.9 hpa, compared to -1.1 last week); Darwin's positive pressure anomaly was unchanged. The resulting real-time 30-day SOI was down 7 to -22. This is slightly different from the official SOI for May of -25, probably due to the fact that the weekly 30-day calculation is based on unverified real-time data. Global averaged wind analyses for May show strong westerly anomalies about the equator east of PNG, with divergent easterly anomalies aloft, also indications of El Nino. Latest weekly SST charts show further warming, particularly north of the equator adjacent to Mexico and the southwestern U.S. Other changes evident from last week are signs of breakup of the weak cool anomaly area which has characterised the southwest Pacific, Indonesian and PNG regions for some time. Monthly averaged charts show considerably stronger warm SST anomalies across the Pacific than in April, with a similar marked warm tongue across the equatorial Pacific at 150 m depth. INTRA-SEASONAL PATTERNS The region now appears to be well into a suppressed phase of the day ISO. Station pressure series (both 5-day mean and filtered) for Singapore, Cocos Is., Darwin and Yap all show significant rises. Time-longitude plots show that enhanced conditions across the domain have declined, although OLR plots indicate that convection lagged at eastern longitudes behind the pressure and upper velocity potential signals. This produced the weak TS Levi to the east of Luzon, followed by Typhoon Marie further east, during the past week. Although surface troughs remain across east Asia north of 20N, and at lower latitude in the northwest Pacific, supported by weak cross-equatorial flow from the south, the monsoon is not well-organised, particularly in the upper levels. The next active ISO phase is forecast after about the middle of the month, and significant summer monsoon development is not expected until then. Apparently developing El Nino conditions mean that the outlook for rain in the coming months over large parts of Australia is not good. The possible effects in north and central Australia remain unclear. Despite last week's comment, NW cloud band activity has continued, though its future remains by no means certain. There is little in the broad scale to indicate any significant departure from average seasonal conditions in the north. =============================================================== Peter Bate, Regional Manager, Climate & Consultative Services Bureau of Meteorology, GPO Box 735, Darwin NT 0801 AUSTRALIA Phone [Fax]: (08) (International: 61 8) [ ] Internet: p.bate@bom.gov.au =============================================================== Dr Gary Meyers Oceans and Climate Program Leader GPO Box 1538 Hobart 7001 Tasmania Australia Phone: Fax: Gary.Meyers@marine.csiro.au