How To Know The Population Of North Sumatera Province

Transcription

1 Task D-9 Energy Situation and Base Case Scenario North Sumatera Province final draft 1

2 CONVERSION OF ENERGY UNIT TO BOE Type of Energy Origin Unit Multiplier to BOE Coal Coal *) Ton 4,0000 Coal Briquette *) Ton 3,5000 Biomass Charcoal *) M 3 1,0000 Wood *) M 3 0,5000 Natural Gas Natural Gas MSCF 0,1796 Natural Gas M 3 0,0063 LPG Ton 8,5246 Crude Oil Condensat Barrel 0,9545 Crude Oil Barrel 1,0000 Oil Product Avgas KiloLiter 5,5530 Avtur KiloLiter 5,8907 Gasoline KiloLiter 5,8275 Kerosene KiloLiter 5,9274 Automotive Diesel Oil KiloLiter 6,4871 Industrial Diesel Oil KiloLiter 6,6078 Fuel Oil KiloLiter 6,9612 Geothermal MWh 1,5937 Hydropower MWh 1,5937 Electricity MWh 0,6130 Source: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, except *) are estimation 2

3 Glossary BBL BPS Elasticity of Energyy Final Use Final Energy Primary Energy Secondary Energy Poverty Line GWh Intensity KL Kmc kv kva kw MBBL MMBTU MMSCF MSCF MSCFD MMSTB MSTB MVA MW MWe MWh GRDP Electrification Ratio BOE Susenas Wp ADO IDO FO PT Barrel Board of Statistic Center ( Badan Pusat Statistik) Growth of final use Activity divided by growth of GRDP Energy that is used at consumer point Energy in the first form or in the original form in nature Energy that is derivated of processed from primary energy Minimum physical basic need per capita, consist of food 2,100 calory/capita/day, clothes, transportation, school,and other basic need; note that the value is different from one place to the other. Giga Watt hour The specific amount of energy for each activity unit Kilo litre Kilo meter circuit kilo Volt kilo Volt Ampere kilo Watt Million Barrel Million British Thermal Unit Million Standard Cubic Feet Million Standard Cubic Feet Million Standard Cubic Feet per Day Million Stock Tank Barrel Thousand Stock Tank Barrel Mega Volt Ampere Mega Watt Mega Watt electric Mega Watt hour Gross Regional Domestic Product, That is the total out put of economy from a region The number of electrified households divided by total number of households Barrel of Oil Equivalent Sensus of National Social Economy Watt peak Automotive Diesel Oil Industrial Diesel Oil Fuel Oil Prefix for stated owned companies 3

4 Chapter 1 General Information of the Region 1.1 Introduction There are roughly 12.3 million people in the North Sumatra Province, which is mainly a rural area, except for the city of Medan (pop. approx. 5 million). Some 500,000 people live under the poverty line and do not have access to electricity. Approximately 86% of the villages are connected to the grid; the household electrification ratio is 72.7%. Sumatera Utara has an important role in the development of palm oil (15.7% or 1,023,350 ha). With its contribution in area equal to 15.7%, the contribution of crude palm oil (CPO) is 21.3%. With private plantation amounting to 377, ha, community plantation equal to 367, ha and 278, ha being the property of PT. Perkebunan Nusantara. The production of biodiesel at this moment is 34 tons per day, with 12 tons/day coming from PT. Pamina Energy & PT. Perkebunan Nusantara 4, and 22 tons/day coming from private companies. The other renewable energy sources in North Sumatra are geothermal, mini hydro and large scale hydropower. During the past years several initiatives have been under taken to formally establish the regional energy forum and regional technical team, but so far the regional government has not given its official approval. The regional technical team is very important to be established and the University of Sumatera Utara tries to convince the regional government to support the establishment. 1.2 Macro- and socio economic Geographic The North Sumatera Province is located at 1-4 latitude and longitude. Total land area of North Sumatera Province is 71,680 km 2. It borders Aceh provinceien on the northwest and Riau and West Sumatra provinceien on the southeast. The map of North Sumatera Province is shown in Figure

5 Source: Wikipedia Figure 1.1 Map of North Sumatera Province The province contains a broad, low plain along the Strait of Malacca coast; in the northeast; the provincial capital, Medan, is located here. In the south and west, the land rises to the mountain range that runs the length of Sumatra; the mountains here are dominated by Lake Toba. Several large islands in the Indian Ocean off the southwest coast of Sumatra are part of North Sumatra, most notably Nias, Tanah Bala, Tanah Masa, and Pini Urban/Rural Regencies and Cities In 2005, North Sumatera Province was divided into 18 regencies (kabupaten) and 7 cities (kota); 328 subdistricts (kecamatan); 5,086 villages (desa) and 382 villages in city regions (kelurahan). The regencies/cities and its capitals are listed in Table 1.1. Table 1.1 Regencies/Cities in North Sumatera Province No. Regency (R)/City (C) Capital 1 Tapanuli Tengah (R) Sibolga 2 Tapanuli Utara (R) Tarutung 3 Tapanuli Selatan (R) Padang Sidempuan 4 Nias (R) Gunungsitoli 5 Langkat (R) Stabat 6 Karo (R) Kabanjahe 7 Deli Serdang (R) Lubukpakam 8 Simalungun (R) Pematangsiantar 9 Asahan (R) Kisaran 5

6 10 Labuhan Batu (R) Rantauprapat 11 Dairi (R) Sidikalang 12 Toba Samosir (R) Balige 13 Mandailing Natal (R) Penyabungan 14 Nias Selatan (R) Teluk Dalam 15 Pakpak Bharat (R) Salak 16 Humbang Hasundutan (R) Dolok Sanggul 17 Samosir (R) Panguruan 18 Serdang Bedagai (R) Sei Rampah 19 Medan (C) - 20 Pematangsiantar (C) - 21 Sibolga (C) - 22 Tanjung Balai (C) - 23 Binjai (C) - 24 Tebing Tinggi (C) - 25 Padang Sidempuan (C) - Source: BPS of North Sumatera Province, 2007 In 2008, following administrative and political evolutions, there are three new regencies in North Sumatera Province, i.e. Regency of Batu Bara (the capital is Lima Puluh), Regency of Padang Lawas Utara (the capital is Gunung Tua), and Regency of Padang Lawas (the capital is Sibuhuan) Population Total population of North Sumatera Province in 2005 was 12,326,678 persons; with the number of household being 2,717,020 households; and the average household size was 4.54 persons per household. The most populated city in North Sumatera is Medan, in which the population in 2005 was 2,036,185 persons or 16.5% of total province. Medan is also the fourth largest city in Indonesia. The average density in this province was 172 persons/km 2. The population growth of this province during was 1.35% per year. In Table 1.2, population and density of each regency/city of North Sumatera Province in 2005 are given. 6

7 No Table 1.2 Population of North Sumatera Province in 2005 Population Number of Area Density Regency/City (persons) Households (km 2 ) (person/km 2 ) Regency 1 Nias 441,807 81,918 3, Mandailing Natal 386,150 86,346 6, Tapanuli Selatan 626, ,030 12, Tapanuli Tengah 283,035 59,558 2, Tapanuli Utara 256,201 56,437 3, Toba Samosir 158,677 39,792 2, Labuhan Batu 951, ,119 9, Asahan 1,024, ,246 4, Simalungun 826, ,071 4, Dairi 261,287 58,718 1, Karo 316,207 83,344 2, Deli Serdang 1,569, ,728 2, Langkat 970, ,346 6, Nias Selatan 288,233 53,249 1, Humbang Hasundutan 152,997 33,702 2, Pakpak Bharat 34,542 7,763 1, Samosir 131,073 28,463 2, Serdang Bedagai 588, ,431 1, City 19 Sibolga 88,717 18, , Tanjung Balai 152,814 31, , Pematang Siantar 230,487 51, , Tebing Tinggi 135,671 30, , Medan 2,036, , , Binjai 237,904 52, , Padang Sidempuan 177,499 50, ,268 Total Province 12,326,678 2,717,020 71, Source: BPS of North Sumatera Province, Macroeconomic Condition The Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of North Sumatera Province in 2005 was Rp 87,897.8 billion (around USD 9.3 billion), and GRDP per capita was Rp 7,33 million (around USD 756) per person per year see Tabel 1.3. There are three sectors that have 7

8 the largest contribution in this province, ie. agriculture, manufacturing industry, and commercial sector. These three sectors contributed 67% to the total GRDP. The GRDP per sector/activity of North Sumatera Province in is shown in Table 1.4. Tabel 1.3 GRDP by Regency/City in 2005 No Regency/City GRDP (Billion Rp) GRDP/Capita (million Rp/cap/yr) Regency 1 Nias 1.552,60 3,51 2 Mandailing Natal 1.492,09 3,86 3 Tapanuli Selatan 2.584,57 4,12 4 Tapanuli Tengah 889,37 3,14 5 Tapanuli Utara 1.232,29 4,81 6 Toba Samosir 1.354,44 8,54 7 Labuhan Batu 8.533,06 8,97 8 Asahan 9.768,12 9,54 9 Simalungun 4.370,08 5,29 10 Dairi 1.634,14 6,25 11 Karo 2.600,53 8,22 12 Deli Serdang ,18 6,87 13 Langkat 5.724,01 5,90 14 Nias Selatan 1.000,49 3,47 15 Humbang Hasundutan 763,54 4,99 16 Pakpak Barat 126,68 3,67 17 Samosir 843,74 6,44 18 Serdang Bedagai 3.379,77 5,75 City 19 Sibolga 563,74 6,35 20 Tanjung Balai 1.142,13 7,47 21 Pematang Siantar 1.649,97 7,16 22 Tebing Tinggi 876,39 6,46 23 Medan ,63 12,41 24 Binjai 1.540,91 6,48 25 Padang Sidempuan 702,10 3,96 Total ,80 7,33 8

9 No Table 1.4 GRDP sector/activity of North Sumatera Province in GRDP (Constant 2005 million Rp) Sector Agriculture 19,683,516 20,182,424 20,689,486 21,465,423 22,191,305 2 Mining 1,151,889 1,146,165 1,130,654 1,009,921 1,074,751 3 Manufacture Industry 17,618,404 18,504,467 19,298,237 20,231,995 21,197,443 4 Utility 585, , , , ,251 5 Construction 4,008,850 4,278,720 4,536,031 4,883,081 5,515,982 6 Commercial Service 13,292,558 13,951,004 14,353,390 15,230,316 15,984,925 7 Transportation 4,767,714 5,346,583 5,905,555 6,702,179 7,379,922 8 Financial Service 4,210,419 4,445,815 4,749,771 5,077,295 5,440,497 9 Other Services 6,509,307 6,707,117 7,481,688 7,942,505 8,288,790 Total 71,908,359 75,189,141 78,805,609 83,328,949 87,897,791 Source: BPS of North Sumatera Province, 2005 Average GRDP growth during was 4.76% per year, and average inflation in the same period was 11.56% (see Tabel 1.5). But this inflation was not a normal inflation. This inflation was mainly caused by the increase of domestic oil fuel price, especially in 2005 when the domestic oil fuel price increased by around 150%. Table 1.5 GRDP Growth and Inflation of North Sumatera Province in No GRDP Growth (%) Inflation (%) Household Household is divided into 2 areas namely urban and rural and further divided in 4 categories based on the poverty line as follows : - Category A : Under Poverty Line - Category B : Under 1.5X Poverty Line - Category C : Middle Income - Category D : 20% Highest Income From the tri-annual Susenas census data, it appears that the population in the higher income categories in urban is increasing and the lower income population becomes less (middle income is %) but in rural area the poorer population becomes bigger and 9

10 also the 20 % highest income become higher (Tabel 1.6). This condition is caused by the increasing domestic fuel prices. The amount of rural inhabitants is larger then the urban residents in almost all income classes, only the middle class shows for some years a majority of urban people. Tabel 1.6 Population by Income Category Population (person) Area Income Category Urban Under Poverty Line 890, , ,880 Under 1.5X Poverty Line 1,692,894 1,732,964 1,113,296 Middle Income 1,604,569 1,766,290 2,854,850 20% Highest Income 770, , ,590 Sub Total 4,958,319 4,964,815 5,225,616 Rural Under Poverty Line 990,225 1,211,646 1,585,665 Under 1.5X Poverty Line 2,311,103 2,016,237 2,361,282 Middle Income 1,365,888 2,784,327 2,110,713 20% Highest Income 1,750, ,667 1,043,402 Sub Total 6,417,421 6,904,877 7,101, Commercial. Data for the Commercial sector are taken from the annual industry census in The value added for the largest contributor restaurant is % and value added for social service as second is % (Tabel 1.7). This means that primarily food and other personnal service enjoy a stable and increasing business. The small contribution of lodging, and amusement sevices mean that there is not so much tourism (national and international) coming to Sumatera Utara. No Subsector Tabel 1.7 Value Added of Commercial Sector Value Added (Constant 2005 Million Rp) Hotel and Lodging 222, , , , ,752 2 Restaurant 11,849,510 12,391,600 12,721,457 13,495,695 14,172,973 3 Trading 1,220,298 1,309,600 1,400,748 1,486,480 1,562,200 4 Financial & Business Service 4,210,419 4,445,815 4,749,771 5,077,295 5,440,497 5 Amusement Service 410, , , , ,613 6 Social Service 6,099,051 6,279,612 7,026,240 7,462,578 7,785,178 Total 24,012,284 25,103,936 26,584,849 28,250,117 29,714,213 Source: BPS, North Sumatera in Numbers

11 Industry The highest industrial added value in Sumatera Utara is from food production and processing, at approximatly % of the total value added of manufacturing industry. Second is chemistry with about %. The annual increase rate of value added is similar for almost all industrial subsectors (Tabel 1.8) amounting to 4.86% on average. Tabel 1.8 Value Added of Manufacture Industry Sector Value Added (Constant 2005 Million Rp) No Subsector Food 10,548,792 11,135,106 11,684,565 12,365,022 12,968,530 2 Textile 114, , , , ,523 3 Wood 1,117,581 1,116,208 1,146,956 1,191,832 1,246,759 4 Paper 155, , , , ,086 5 Chemistry 3,342,370 3,526,384 3,664,470 3,848,926 4,021,194 6 Non Metal 765, , , , ,097 7 Metal 967,120 1,053,053 1,066,468 1,123,768 1,162,385 8 Machinery 500, , , , ,224 9 Others 23,402 30,383 31,470 31,564 33,644 Total 17,534,913 18,402,119 19,196,043 20,231,995 21,197,443 Source: BPS, North Sumatera in Numbers Transportation The number of vechicles for transportation increased significantly between 2001 and The average annual growth of motocycle is 19.9 % and growth of aviation is very high averaging 32.9 % annually. The average annual growth of train is lower at just 1.8 % (Tabel 1.9). It shows that growth in the utilisation of public transportation is quite low and the utilisation of motocycle is very high. From of this kind of utilisation results the amount of energy consumption especially Gasoline becomes the most important fuel. 11

12 Tabel 1.9 Transportation No Type of Mode Passenger Car (unit) 169, , , , ,043 2 Motorcycle (unit) 952,361 1,084,051 1,300,995 1,568,048 1,864,980 3 Bus (unit) 26,035 26,566 27,106 27,621 28,160 4 Truck (unit) 128, , , , ,221 5 Train (million rupiah) 2,430 2,490 2,540 2,580 2,600 6 Ferry (million rupiah) 35,017 36,164 40,175 42,681 43,789 7 Ship (million rupiah) 25,143 24,316 29,390 27,474 28,487 8 Aeroplane (million rupiah) 697, ,633 1,264,096 1,830,823 1,932,133 Source: BPS, North Sumatera in Numbers Others. The growth of the value added of subsectors agriculture, mining and construction is similar for all three with the average annual growth for agriculture, the most important subsector, at 3.04 %. The total average annual growth for the other sectors is % (Tabel 1.10). No Subsector Tabel 1.10 Value Added of Other Sector Value Added (Constant 2005 Million Rp) Agriculture 19,683,516 20,182,424 20,689,486 21,465,423 22,191,305 2 Mining 1,151,889 1,146,165 1,130,654 1,009,921 1,074,751 3 Construction 4,088,850 4,278,720 4,536,031 4,883,081 5,515,982 Total 24,924,256 25,607,308 26,356,171 27,358,426 28,782,038 Source: BPS, North Sumatera in Numbers

13 Chapter 2 Primary Energy Supply 2.1 Oil and Oil Product North Sumatera Province has oil reserves for an amount of MMSTB in 2005 which consists of MMSTB for proven reserve and MMSTB for potential. These numbers correspond to 0.5% of the national total oil reserve or 0.8% of the national proven oil reserves. Most oil reserves in North Sumatera are found onshore, that is Rantau Field near to Pangkalan Brandan Oil Refinery. The oil reserves in North Sumatera are shown in Table 2.1. Location Table 2.1 Oil Reserves 2005 Reserves (MSTB) Proven Potential Total Langkat 19, , , Deli Serdang 7, , Binjai 5, , Medan Tapanuli Selatan 2, , Total 34, , , Source: Mining and Energy Office of North Sumatera Province There were 11 oil companies active in North Sumatera Province in 2005, but most of them are still in the field development stage. Pertamina is the largest oil company in the upstream oil business in North Sumatera. A list of oil companies in North Sumatera is shown in Table 2.2. Table 2.2 Oil Company in 2005 Production Capacity No Company Regency Oil (BOPD) Gas (MSCFD) 1 Pertamina DOH Sumbagut Langkat 2, Japex NS (Costa) Langkat PT.Putra Kencana Diski Petroleum Deli Serdang 10-4 PT.Putra Batumandi Petroleum Langkat Putra Kencana Basilam Petrogas Langkat PT Eksindo Petroleum Langkat PT.Caltex Pasific Tapsel PT.Caltex Pasific Ind. Kisaran Lab.Batu Lab. Batu PT. Sinopec Langkat Matrix Oil Asahan Off Shore PT. Gunakarsa Glagah Kambuna Energi Off Shore - - Total 2, Source: Mining and Energy Office of North Sumatera Province 13

14 2.2 Natural Gas The total natural gas reserves in North Sumatera Province in 2005 were BSCF, with BCF of it proven reserve. This is 0.25% of the national total natural gas reserve and 0.39% of the national proven natural gas reserve. The location of natural gas reserve in North Sumatera is associated with the oil field (Rantau field). Natural gas reserves data is shown in Table 2.3. Location Table 2.3 Natural Gas Reserves 2005 Reserves (MMSCF) Proven Potential Total Langkat 233,591 80, ,281 Deli Serdang 143, ,065 Binjai Medan 3,933 3,130 7,063 Total 380,627 83, ,447 Source: Mining and Energy Office of North Sumatera Province Natural gas production in North Sumatera Province from Rantau field (Pertamina) in 2005 was 8 MMSCF, decreasing from previous years because the contents of the well in Rantau field has decreased. Beside this, there is also natural gas production by other companies. 2.3 Coal North Sumatera Province has only few amounts of coal reserves, and all of that are still listed as potential reserve. Most of coal reserves in North Sumatera are found on Nias Island. Coal reserve in North Sumatera Province in 2005 is shown in Table 2.4. There is no coal production in this province. No Table 2.4 Coal Reserve 2005 Reserves (ton) Location Proven Potential 1 Langkat - 1,800,000 2 Labuhan Batu - 1,000,000 3 Tapanuli Tengah - 4,300,000 4 Tapanuli Selatan - 1,000,000 5 Nias - 20,000,000 Total - 28,100,000 Source: Mining and Energy Office of North Sumatera Province 14

15 2.4 Hydropower Installed Hydropower capacity amount to 91 MW in Renun and Sipan and 6,5 MW miicro hydro (in the energy profile a total amount of hydro power is mentioned at 212,5 MW, but the PLN-grid-connected capacity is only 97,5 MW, the rest of the hydro power is in remote locations and certain hydro power plants can not produce electricity anymore because of water supply problems from deforestation). The potential in North Sumatera Province is much larger at 3,051 MW; it consists of 3,031 MW of large hydro power, MW of mini hydro power, and 6.03 MW of micro hydro power. The top 5 regions that have hydropower potential are: Regency of Tapanuli Utara (31%), Regency of Asahan (19%), Regency of Mandailing Natal (19%), Regency of Langkat (15%), and Regency of Tapanuli Selatan (8%). Hydro power potential in North Sumatera Province is shown in Table 2.5 Table 2.5 Hydro Potential 2005 Type Potential (kw) Large hydro 3,031,300 Mini hydro 13,890 Micro hydro 6,035 Total 3,051,225 Source: Mining and Energy Office of North Sumatera Province 2.5 Geothermal North Sumatera Province has a relatively large geothermal potency, the reserve is 2 GW and the total resource is 3.67 GW. These numbers are 11.67% of national geothermal reserve and 11.19% of national geothermal resource. The geothermal resources in North Sumatera Province are distributed over 4 regencies, ie. : Regency of Tapanuli Selatan (1,846 MW, 50%), Regency of Tapanuli Utara (1,345 MW, 37%), Regency of Karo (258 MW, 7%), and Regency of Simalungun (225 MW, 6%), the geothermal potential in North Sumatera Province in 2005 is shown in Table 2.6 Geothermal potency is already utilized in North Sumatera, although in very small capacity. The since existing geothermal power plant is in Sibayak, Regency of Karo, with a capacity of 2 x 5,5 MW. Currently, Sarulla geothermal power plant in Regency of Tapanuli Utara is being in construction stage. The Sarulla geothermal power plant will have a capacity of 110 MW, and is planned to be operational in

16 Location Table 2.6 Geothermal Potential 2005 Installed Reserves Regency Capacity (MW) (MW) Resources (MW) Total (MW) Lau Debuk-Debuk Sibayak Karo 2 x 5, Marike Karo Dolok Merawan Simalungun Pusuk Buhit, DanauToba Tapanuli Utara Simbolon Samosir Tapanuli Utara Pagaran Tapanuli Utara Hela Toba Tapanuli Utara Sarulla Tapanuli Utara Namorailangit Tapanuli Utara Sipoholon Ria-Ria Tapanuli Selatan Sibual-Buali Tapanuli Selatan Sibuhuan Tapanuli Selatan S.Merapi-Sampuraga Tapanuli Selatan Sampuraga Tapanuli Selatan Robuan Tapanuli Selatan Total 11 2,002 1,670 3,674 Source: Mining and Energy Office of North Sumatera Province 2.6 Other Renewable Energy Other renewable energy in North Sumatera Province that is already utilized is solar energy or solar photovoltaic. Solar energy utilization in this province is developed through government programmes. The total installed capacity of solar photovoltaic in North Sumatera is 27.1 kw. In Table 2.7 and 2.8, biomass and biogas potential in North Sumatera Province in 2005 are presented. Utilization of biomass and biogas has not been recorded yet. 16

17 Regency/City Table 2.7 Biomass Potential 2005 Biomass Potential (Ton) Rice Husk Coconut Shell Oil Palm Shell Sugar Cane Waste Deli Serdang 714, , , ,409.0 Karo 13, Simalungun 9,989,6-19,312,2 - Pakpak 31, , Pakpak Bharat 65, ,089,2 70, Asahan 1, , Tanjung Balai , , Labuhan 89, ,303.3 Labuhan Batu 74,816, Tapanuli Selatan 87, , Tapanuli Utara 61, , ,000.0 Total 1,065, , , ,409.0 Source: Mining and Energy Office of North Sumatera Province Regency/City Table 2.8 Biogas Potential 2005 Potential of Biogas from Cattle Waste (ton) Cow Lamb Pig Buffalo Medan 21,516 21,256 4,660 4,228 Deli Serdang 173,544 56,150 71,999 50,631 Karo 91,773 13,599 51, ,690 Simalungun 40, ,545 30, ,756 Dairi 7,918 3,342 50,974 40,707 Pakpak Barat 865 2,241 4,480 22,445 Asahan 89, ,172 61,104 53,327 Tanjung Balai 183 2, Labuhan Batu 40,403 50,605 29,528 10,665 Tapanuli Utara 52,493 22, , ,826 Humbang Hasundutan 2,328 1,899 21,633 85,715 Tapanuli Tengah 5,412 9,996 56,099 73,913 Tapanuli Selatan 216,572 42, ,384 Nias 5,989 7, ,860 5,562 Total 748,425 1,050,480 1,268,908 1,902,184 Source: Mining and Energy Office of North Sumatera Province 17

18 Chapter 3 Transformation 3.1 Electricity generation The largest power plant in Sumatera Utara using combined cycle technology amounts to % of the total power plant capacity of 1, MW. At the moment steam power plant covers %, mini hydro power plant is spread in remote areas (Tabel 3.1). Tabel 3.1 Capacity and Location of Power Plants No Type of Plantcombine cycle Location Installed Capacity (MW) Rated Capacity (MW) 1 Diesel PP Belawan Steam PP Belawan Gas Turbine PP Belawan Combined Cycle PP Belawan Hydro/Microhydro PP Pandan Diesel PP Total 1, , Source: State of Electricy Company of North Sumatera Province The amount of fuel used in at the power plants is dominated by Industrial Diesel Oil (73.49%) in 2005 which is increasing compared to the years before and second utilisation fuel is FO (25.38 %), the other fuel for power plants is Natural gas (Tabel 3.2). 18

19 No Type of Plant Fuel Type Tabel 3.2. Type of Plant and Fuel Type Unit Fuel Consumption Steam PP FO Liter 263,541, ,993, ,960, ,074, ,471,576 Natural 2 Steam PP Gas MMBtu 120,954 44,785 18, , ,057 Combined 3 Cycle PP ADO Liter 207,908, ,611, ,506, ,016, ,159,060 Combined Natural 4 Cycle PP Gas MMBtu 24,998,638 21,790,528 17,919,765 18,882,744 13,929,994 Gas Turbine 5 PP ADO Liter 58,040,900 80,684,600 54,497,900 55,702, ,990,100 6 Diesel PP ADO Liter 9,785,563 14,972,471 10,789,410 14,417,879 19,704,471 Diesel PP 7 Isolated ADO Liter 7,170,354 7,963,165 8,651,745 9,448,374 8,439,798 Total HSD Liter 282,905, ,231, ,445, ,585, ,293,429 Total FO Liter 263,541, ,993, ,960, ,074, ,471,576 Total Natural Gas MMBtu 25,119,592 21,835,313 17,938,746 19,048,874 14,258,051 Source: State of Electricy Company of North Sumatera Province 3.2 Electricity grid Sumatera Utara transmission line uses an interconnected 150 kv line passing several substations with a lenght of 3,274 kmc. It is also directly coupled to Inalum (hydro power plant to supply bauxite smelter) with 275 kv voltage (substation 275/150 kv). The distribution line to serve the consumers uses the 20 kv and futher using the distribution transformer (20 kv/380/220 V). (Tabel 3.3) Tabel 3.3 Electricity grid No Line Type Length (kmc) 1 High Voltage 150 kv 3,274 2 Intermediate Voltage 20 kv 21,659 3 Low Voltage 380/220 V 22,466 Source: State of Electricy Company of North Sumatera Province The transmission losses are 2.35 % and distribution losses are 13.5 % at Refinery. Pangkalan Berandan is a crude oil refinery which is supplied with crude from Rantau and but the last production year for this refinery is 2005 (Tabel 3.4 and 3.5). 19

20 Tabel 3.4 Oil Refinary No Refinery Name Company Location Capacity (MBBL/Year) 1 P.Berandan Pertamina P.Berandan 1,825 Source: Mining and Energy Office of North Sumatera Province No Refinery Name Tabel 3.5 Production of Refinery Type of Product Total 1,825 Production (KL/Year) P.Berandan Oil Fuel 84, , , , Kerosene , Automotive Diesel Oil , Fuel Oil , Non Oil Fuel: 64, , , , LPG , Others , Total 149, , , , Source: Mining and Energy Office of North Sumatera Province 3.4 Others Coal bricket in Sumatera Utara entirely is imported (coming from Jambi, Sumatera Barat and Kalimantan), also LPG is entirely imported from Jawa. 20

21 4.1 Final energy by fuel Chapter 4 Final Energy Consumption The final energy consumption of 25.5 million BOE is dominated by oil products (80%) which on its turn are dominated by gasoline and Automotive Diesel Oil (ADO). These are mainly used in transport (Figure 4.1 and 4.2). Electricity takes about 11% and Natural gas and Biomass (mainly wood) take each about 4-5%. Figure 4.1 Final Energy in SumUt 2005 Figure 4.2 Final Energy Consumption in SumUt

22 Oil products are consumed mostly in the transport sector, but also households and industry show a considerable use. The commercial and other sector consume each about 1.5 million BOE. Electricity is mainly used in households, followed by industry and commercial. Natural gas is almost exclusively used in industry, there is little use in households and commercial, and wood is only used in households (Figure4.3). Figure 4.3 Final Energy in SumUt Final energy by sector Households urban/rural, Final energy consumption in households is dominated by Kerosene (49-54%), and both in rural and urban areas (Figure 4.4). Electricity is equally used but to a lesser extent (18-30%). The major differences occur for the other fuels; in rural areas wood is the second largest fuel whereas in urban areas LPG comes after electricity (Figure 4.5). 22

23 Figure 4.4 Final Energy Household in SumUt 2005 Figure 4.5 Urban Final Energy in SumUt

24 Figure 4.6 Rural Final Energy in SumUt 2005 Looking at the fuel consumption per income class, differences between similar classes in urban and rural area appear in both level and composition. So is wood used in all income classes in rural areas while LPG is used in the two highest urban income classes C and D obviously since it is more expensive as shown at Figure 4.7. Figure 4.7 Final Energy Consumption in SumUt

25 4.2.2 COMMERCIAL Of the oil products, Kerosene is dominating the commercial consumption at 38.9%, followed by electricity with 28.7% and Automotive Diesel Oil (ADO, 21.7%). Usage of LPG and natural gas is not high in the commercial sector (Figure 4.8). Most of Automative Diesel Oil is used by hotel, trading and financial services compared with LPG which mainly used by restaurants as cooking fuel as is show in Figure 4.9. Figure 4.8 Commercial Final Energy Consumption in SumUt 2005 Figure 4.9 Commercial subsector Final Energy in Sumut

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28 4.2.3 Industry Coal, Industrial Diesel Oil and LPG products are used by industry in a small quantity of %. Oil consumption is still dominated by Automotive Diesel Oil and Fuel Oil (3,620,181BOE) and is followed by natural gas and electricity (Figure 4.10). The biggest consumption of electricity occurs in others subsector and reaches 68.7% (3,633 thousand BOE) (Figure 4.11). Figure 4.10 Industrial Final Oil Consumption in SumUt 2005 Figure 4.11 Industrial Subsector Final Energy Consumption in SumUt

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32 4.2.4 Transportation The most important fuel for transportation is Gasoline, more than half of the utilisation of oil fuels (55.5% - 5, kboe). This is mainly caused by the high number of motocycles (Figure ). The increasing the number of vechicules also increases the utilisation of Automotive Diesel Oil up to 36.6 % or 3, kboe. Air transport mainly consumes avtur, not so much avgas (0.003% of total transport consumption) Figure 4.12 Transportation Final Oil Consumption in SumUt

33 Figure 4.13 Transportation Subsector Final Energy in SumUt

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35 4.2.5 Others The construction of buildings (housing, hotel, appartement, etc) uses Automotive Diesel Oil to drive cranes and other equipment which use Automotive Diesel Oil with quantities up to around 58% (895,6742 kboe). Automotive Diesel Oil comsumption is followed by Gasoline and Kerosene with 20,8% and 16% respectively. Fuel Oil is not used too much as shown in Figure

36 Figure 4.14 Others Final Energy Consumption in SumUt 2005 Figure 4.15 Others Subsector Final Energy in SumUt

37 37

38 5.1 Macro economic assumptions Chapter 5 Future development In order to run the LEAP model we need an energy database containing the current (2005) situation (supply, demand and fuel intensity) and forecasts, mainly demand projectionsbased on elasticities related to key macro-economic drives. The growth of Population, GRDP and elasticity of the sectors commercial, industry, others and transportation for the Business as Usual case (BAU) in LEAP can be found in Tabel 5.1 The fuel intensity value is determined by dividing the 2005 volume of fuel consumption by the activity volume in each subsector (household, commercial, industry, transportation and others). The value of elasticity is the relation between averaged activity growths compared to averaged regional GRDP growth. For some transport modes, also population growth was taken into account to determine the vehicle amount growth projections. The averaging was done over A curve fitting approach was chosen to determine the elasticity. 38

39 Item Tabel 5.1 Growth of Population, GRDP, Elasticity Parameter Population growth 1,35 % GRDP growth 5,5 % Elasticity Industry 0,967 Commercial 1,089 Others 0,735 Growth AS (GRDP, average growth /average GRDP ) PrevYearValue*(1+GRDP growth per year* (average growth /average GRDP )) Growth AS (GRDP, average growth /average GRDP ) Transportation Car : Population : GDRP : Motorcycle : Population : GDRP : Bus : Population : GDRP : Truck : Population : GDRP : Train : Population : GDRP : Ferry : Population : GDRP : 1,05 1,19 0,23 3,58 1,25 0,07 0,53 1,16 0,58 0,19 0,70 0,96 Elasticity prevyearvalue*(1+ GRDP growth per year*1,19)*(1+ Population growth per year*1,05) prevyearvalue*(1+ GRDP growth per year*3,58)*(1+ Population growth per year*0,23) prevyearvalue*(1+ GRDP growth per year*0,07)*(1+ Population growth per year*1,25) prevyearvalue*(1+ GRDP growth per year*1,18)*(1+ Population growth per year*0,53) prevyearvalue*(1+ GRDP growth per year*0,19)*(1+ Population growth per year*0,58) prevyearvalue*(1+ GRDP growth per year*0,96)*(1+ Population growth per year*0,70) Ship : GDRP : 0,73 prevyearvalue*(1+ GRDP growth per year*0,73) Aviation : Population : GDRP : 0,90 5,65 prevyearvalue*(1+ GRDP growth per year*5,65)*(1+ Population growth per year*0,90) 39

40 Note : - Elasticity for Industry : when the growth of GRDP 1 % so the energy demand will increase 0,967 % - Elasticity for Commercial : when the growth of GRDP 1 % so the energy demand will increase 1,089 % - Elasticity for Others : when the growth of GRDP 1 % so the energy demand will increase 0,735 % - Elasticity Car : when the growth of Population 1 % so the energy demand will increase 1,05 % and the growth of GRDP is 1% so the energy demand will increase 1,19 % - Elasticity Motorcycle : when the growth of Population 1 % so the energy demand will increase 0,23 % and the growth of GRDP is 1% so the energy demand will increase 3,58 % - Elasticity Bus : when the growth of Population 1 % so the energy demand will increase 1,25 % and the growth of GRDP is 1% so the energy demand will increase 0,07 % - Elasticity Truck : when the growth of Population 1 % so the energy demand will increase 0,53 % and the growth of GRDP is 1% so the energy demand will increase 1,16 % - Elasticity Train : when the growth of Population 1 % so the energy demand will increase 0,58 % and the growth of GRDP is 1% so the energy demand will increase 0,19 % - Elasticity Ferry : when the growth of Population 1 % so the energy demand will increase 0,70 % and the growth of GRDP is 1% so the energy demand will increase 0,96 % - Elasticity Ship : when the growth of GRDP is 1% so the energy demand will increase 0,73 % - Elasticity Aviation : when the growth of Population 1 % so the energy demand will increase 0,90 % and the growth of GRDP is 1% so the energy demand will increase 5,65 % 5.2 Business as usual assumptions The database used to forecast untill 2025 is based on the data of 2005 while considering the growth of Population, GRDP and their relation to the growth of the Residential, Commercial, Industry, Others and the Tansportation sector. 40

41 Apart from assumptions based on observed trends in for elasticties and subsector shares in activity levels and constant 2005 values for fuel intensities, no other assumptions have been included in the BAU scenario - even if there are signs that they are part of energy policy (like switch to LPG in households because the governement want to remove the subsidised Kerosene in 2012, or the introduction of biofuels in transportation). Constant fuel intensities do not take into account efficiency improvements or fuel substitution effects, nor do they take into account the effect that with economic growth, the number of use of appliances may change. In order to determine those, one need more detail on the kind of application fuels are used, knowledge that is currently lacking. On the supply side, the power sector only assumes short term capcity additions up till , longer term plans are considered too uncertain to be part of a BAU. As such is the BAU a rather conservative approach, but illustrative for the development of energy demand and supply under current circumstances. In the energy policy scenarios (national and regional) to be developed, more attention will be given to deepen the assumptions. - Households : expected growth. Population growth Area Urban % 65 % Rural % 35 % The trend of urban/rural population share is based on the decreasing number of poorer population and increasing number of population in urban area as observed over Composition urban/rural per income class. From the same data, the following trends for the share of the four income classes per area can be determined: the poorer income classes decrease in favour of the middle income class, and to a lesser extant also the highest income class. Area Urban Rural Income Category Under Poverty Line Under 1.5xPoverty Line Middle Income 20% Highest Income Under Poverty Line Under 1.5X Poverty Line Middle Income 20% Highest Income Population growth % 5 % 21.3 % 15 % 54.6 % 60 % 16.3 % 20 % 22.3 % 33.3 % 29.7 % 14.7 % 10 % 15 % 50 % 25 % 41

42 - Commercial, : expected growth. Based on the 2005 value added and the forecasted growth with GRDP and an elastciyity, the commercial sector more than tripples in the period. Billion rupiah Commercial Subsector composition The shares of each subsector are kept constant over , this can be justified by the rather constant shares over No Subsector Subsector growth (Million rupiah) Hotel 249, ,800 2 Restaurant 14,172,973 45,362,700 3 Trading 1,562,200 5,040,300 4 Financial Service 5,440,497 17,403,300 5 Amusement Service 503,613 1,616,700 6 Social Service 7,785,178 24,916,200 Total 29,714,213 95,100,000 - Industry : expected growth. Industry grows less fast than the commercial sector, but also more or less tripples its activity by 2025 Million rupiah Industri 21,197,443 59,700,000 - Subsector composition. Also here, no change in subsector share is assumed, so all grow proportional to the overall industry sector. 42

43 No Subsector Subsector growth (Million rupiah) Food 12,968,530 36,524,275 2 Textile 123, ,887 3 Wood 1,246,759 3,511,344 4 Paper 165, ,944 5 Chemistry 4,021,194 11,325,200 6 Non Metal 917,097 2,582,891 7 Metal 1,162,385 3,273,715 8 Machinery 559,224 1,574,986 9 Others 33,644 94,754 Total 21,197,443 59,700,000 - Others: expected growth. The other sector has the lowest growth of the economic sector, but stays above the industry level. Million rupiah Others 28,782,038 63,200,000 - Subsector composition The dominance by agriculture does not change over , so it keeps the largest contribution to GRDP development. No Subsector Subsector growth (Million rupiah) Agriculture 22,191,305 48,727,976,7 2 Mining 1,074,751 2,359,953,2 3 Construction 5,515,982 12,112,070,1 Total 28,782,038 63,200,000 - Transportation: Elasticity tends to decrease. Based on historic data, some very high elasticities with GRDP are determined for some of the transport modes (see Tabel 5.1 and below). Straight extrapollation using this same elasticities would lead to very high and unrealistic amounts of vehicles or activity levels. In order to avoid e.g. that the ratio motorcycles per inhabitant becomes too high, a relaxation of this elasticities has been introduced. The outcome of this approach leads to more plausible, but still assumed, levels. 43

44 Item Elasticity growth Transportation Car Motorcycle Truck 1, Aviation Further assumptions : - Constant fuel intensities, no biofuels Constant fuel intensities are used in the business as usual until 2025 and there are no changies in the oil products consumption by bio fuel, even though a biodiesel plant is already producing a certain amount (the biodiesel now just used by a private company oil palm company) - No power plant addictions after 2010/2012. The national government has an acceleration plan to build 10,000 MW to overcome the national electricity problem and Sumatera Utara has a part of about 2 x 200 MW in Pangkalan Susu of thise 10,000 MWe. - Closure of refinery in 2006 Refinery in Pangkalan Brandan is closed in 2006, it means that the oil products supply for Sumatera Utara comes from other regions (Jawa) 5.3 BAU RESULTS Primary supply The highest primary supply is Renewable (Biodiesel plant) about 673,78 million BOE, (Sumatera Utara has an important role in the development of oil palm (15.7% or 1,023,350 ha) with its contribution in area equal to 15.7%, the contribution of crude palm oil (CPO) is 21.3%. With private plantation amounting to 377, ha, community plantation equal to 367, ha and 278, ha being the property of PT. Perkebunan Nusantara. In producing biodiesel, PT. Pamina Adolina and their capacity at beginning was 8 ton/day, and now already scales up to 12 ton/day and the other company produce biodiesel 22 ton/day. Currently they use the biodiesel for their own energy demand; those are for their palm oil mill machine and transportation), and is followed by electricity (12,45 million BOE) and Natural gas (3,77 million BOE) at 2025 (Figure 5.1). 44

45 Figure 5.1 Transformation Energy in SumUt Electricity Power plants are producing thousand BOE electricity with production from combined cycle power plants (PLTGU) (41.86 % thousand BOE), followed by Steam power plant (PLTU) (19.9% thousand BOE). The contribution of Diesel power plant (PLTD) and Mini hydro (PLTA and PLTMH at remote areas; PLTMH Batang Gadis I & II, PLTMH Tonduhan I & II, PLTMH Kombih I & II, PLTMH Aek Raisan I & II, PLTMH Aek Silang, PLTMH Aek Sibundong ) to supply electricity is still small, the quantities are 0,78% (36.5 thousand BOE) and 0.56% (26.2 thousand BOE) see Figure 5.2. PLTP is the geothermal plant and PLTU is a foreseen coal power plant. Figure 5.2 Power Plant Final Energy in SumUt

46 The increasing demand of electricity in 2025 is caused by industrial and commercial sectors and as result the increasing at household demand of electricity; the total demand of electricity is thousand BOE. The high percentage of demand electricity is Industrial (2.882 thousand BOE or 38.60%) and is followed by Household (34,87%) and Commercial is 26.53% (Figure 5.3). Figure 5.3 Electricity demand in SumUt From the Figure 5.4, it can be seen that the amount of electricity produce by power plant is just thousand BOE in 2025 and meanwhile the demand of electricity by consumer (household, commercial and industry) reach an amount thousand BOE in There is clearly a shortage in supply. Figure 5.4 Electric Balance BAU SumUt 10,000 9,000 8,000 shortage domestic supply demand 7,000 6,000 BOE 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,

47 To fulfill the difference between demand and domestic supply (2.656 thousand BOE), it is needed to construct new power plant. This is not easy for the governement (national or regional) because such investment need money. If the new power plant are not constructed, electric shortages for the years coming will only increase and could reach substantial amount by 2025 (see Figure 5.4). For new power plant, governement can invite the investors, but of course these investors require guarantees by governement for their own invested money. - Refinery. The last production by refineries in Sumatera Utara occured in 2005, untill then the production of the refinery consisted of the oil products Kerosene, Automotive Diesel Oil, others and amounted to as much as 88,3 thousand BOE (Figure 5.5) Figure 5.5 Production of Refinery in SumUt Final energy by fuel The final energy consumption of 66.9 million BOE is dominated by oil products (81%) which on its turn are dominated by Automotive Diesel Oil and Gasoline are 28.6 % and 30.1 %. Electricity takes about 11 % and Natural gas take about 5.1% (Figure ). 47

48 Figure 5.6 Final Energy by Fuel Figure 5.7 Final Energy Consumption in SumUt 2025 Oil products are consumed mostly in the transport sector, but also industry and households show a considerable use.the commercial and other sector consume each about 4.8 and 3.2 million BOE respectively. Electricity is mainly used in industry, followed by households and commercial. Natural gas is almost exclusively used in industry, there is little use in households and commercial and wood is only used in households as be showed in Figure

49 Figure 5.8 Final Energy in SumUt million BOE Others Transportation Industry Commercial Households 10 0 Electricity Oil Products Solid Fuels Natural Gas Biomass Renewables Final energy by sector 70,000 Figure 5.9 Final Energy by Sector 60,000 thousand BOE 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 Others Transportation Industry Commercial Households 10,

50 Households urban/rural, Final energy consumption in households is dominated by kerosene (50%), and both in rural and urban areas. Electricity is equally used but to a lesser extent (20-34%) (Figure 5.10). The major differences occur for the other fuels, in rural areas wood is the second largest fuel whereas in urban areas LPG comes after electricity (Figure ). Figure 5.10 Final Energy Consumption Household in Sumut 2025 Figure 5.11 Urban Final Energy in SumUt

51 Figure 5.12 Rural Final Final Energy in SumUt 2025 Looking at the fuel consumption per income class, differences between similar classes in urban and rural area appear in both level and composition (Figure 5.13). So is wood used in all income classes in rural areas while LPG is obviously since it is more expensive - are used in the two highest urban income classes. Figure 5.13 Urban and Rural (as Categories) Final Energy in Sumut

52 COMMERCIAL The final energy consumption for commercial sector is still dominated by oil product (ADO, FO,LPG) for commercial is very important more than 70 % and second largest is Electricity (28.71%) as shown at Figure Using the Natural gas is still small and can be extended, LPG is used most in restaurant (40.4%) (Figure 5.15). Figure 5.14 Commercial Final Energy Consumption in SumUt 2025 Figure 5.15 Commercial Subsector Final Energy in SumUt

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54 5.3.3 INDUSTRY Using the oil products (ADO, FO) for industry is very important, more than 66 % compared with the other energy cariers (Figure 5.16). Natural gas and Electricity use near 32 %. Machinery and Metal industry are using coal in small quantities, see Figure

55 Figure 5.16 Industrial Final Energy Consumption in SumUt 2025 Figure 5.17 Industrial Subsector Final Energy in SumUt

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58 5.3.4 Tansportation Gasoline is the most utilised oil products with 60 % of the oil products and is followed by Automotive Diesel Oil with % (Figure ), final energy consumption of avtur is not so much, but could be signifigant in the future. Figure 5.18 Transportation Final Oil Consumption in SumUt

59 Figure 5.19 Transportation Subsector Final Energy in SumUt

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62 5.3.5 OTHERS Use of Automotive Diesel Oil (ADO) is highest (58,46 %) among oil products, Gasoline and Kerosene increase not so much. FO for the others is just used for 4.55 % as shown at Figure Construction is a highest using ADO about 63 % and follow by Gasoline is 28.2 % but use the Kerosene is to little (8.4 %) compare with the agriculture or mining (Figure 5.21). Figure 5.20 Others Final Oil Consumption in SumUt 2025 Figure 5.21 Others Subsector Final Energy in SumUt

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