The Polish economy and banking sector perspectives as seen from Q IV 2011 Bank financing and the Polish energy sector.

Transcription

1 The Polish economy and banking sector perspectives as seen from Q IV 2011 Bank financing and the Polish energy sector. Warsaw, 29 th November 2011 Emilii Plater 53

2 Table of contents Polish economy Banking sector in Poland Energy sector financing

3 Poland in a relatively comfortable situation compared to most of Europe; business activity is much higher when compared to GDP as % of 2008 GDP (real terms) 3 Source: Pekao S.A Research based on Eurostat and IMF

4 There is no need for the private sector to deleverage Households debt to income ratio Non-financial enterprises debt to equity ratio Euro zone average = 0.98 Euro zone average = Source: Pekao Research based on Eurostat data (2009)

5 Fiscal challenges should be manageable provided that necessary reforms are implemented by the new government Public debt in some EU countries, 2010 (% of GDP) Polish government fiscal consolidation plan, % of GDP According to the domestic methodology public debt was equal to 53% of GDP 5 Source: Pekao S.A. Research based on European Commission data

6 Poland s risk premium remains significantly below its 2009 peak; declining yields suggest that for some investors we are a safe heaven 5Y Credit Default Swaps (bp) 10Y Treasury yield, % 6 Source: Reuters

7 Exposure to peripheral euro zone countries is low Structure of Polish foreign trade*, 2010 Exports: 100% = EUR bln Imports: 100% = EUR bln Other Germany Other Germany Russia Slovakia Hungary Sweden Netherland s Russia Czech Rep. Italy UK France USA UK South Korea Netherland s Czech Rep. PIIGS** account for less than 10% of the Polish export France Italy China 7 * Exports and imports of goods ** Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain Source: StatOffice

8 GDP growth to slow down to around 3% next year Contribution to GDP growth, p.p F 2012F Private consumption Fixed investments Change of inventories Net exports GDP (%y/y) 8 Source: StatOffice, Pekao Research

9 Despite some balance sheet challenges banking sector in Poland remains strong (high capitals, solid profits) Net profits and capital adequacy Domestic funding gap*** and banks external debt, % of GDP (2009) FX loans, % of loan portfolio (end of 2010) 9 9 * For net profit results from last 12 months ending in June 2011; for capital adequacy data for June 2011 ** As of January Estonia became a euro zone member, that s why right now the share of FX loans is much smaller *** Banking sector client loans (to non-bank clients) minus domestic deposits; negative figure means that deposits were greater than loans Source: UCG Research, central banks, Pekao Research

10 Prudent credit strategy and solid economic fundamentals have left Polish banks as pacesetters in the drive for finacial stability. STRESS TEST CORE TIER 1 (%) Largest Polish banks Top score European banks (avg) Biggest European banks (avg) Pekao BZWBK ING PKO BP Bank Millenium BRE Bank Kredyt Bank Top score EU avg Biggest EU avg 10 10

11 Bank Pekao SA representative of the Polish Universal Banking model 11

12 Polish banking sector - competitive edge in key areas 2nd quarter 2011 Pekao SA PKO BP BZ WBK BRE Bank Capital adequacy ratio 18,4% 12,6% 15,8% 16,1% Sound financial position Return on assets 2,1% 2,1% 2,0% 1,26% Good effectiveness of utilised resources Return on equity 13,5% 16,3% 19,5% 15,9% High profitability of invested capital Costs/Income 48,0% 39,1% 45,5% 48,0% High effectiveness Total assets/capital 6,6 8,7 8,3 11,8 Strong capital base 12

13 Energy sector financing in Poland historical background Historically finance was balanced sheet based and directed at larger state owned conglomerates. Due to environmental considerations flows historically skewed towards the Power Sector and large state owned oil refineries (Orlen Lotus). Extraction based project financing a virgin territory in Poland due to endemic problems in coal sector (predominant extraction based industry) and monopolisation of domestic gas extraction by state owned PGNiG. 13

14 Evolving trends in Power sector financing Project finance emerging as a key pillar of late due to projects based on alternative energy sources (wind power, bio-mass etc) Project finance plays by foreign owned banks tend to be supported by HQ know how. However, Basel III regulations will limit potential for owners of foreign banks to allocate assets to Polish based plays. A developed and deepening local market for loan syndication and bond / CP based financing. Expansion of asset based financing Leasing due to increasingly integrated ties to suppliers: Sennebogen, Terex, Atlas Copco. 14

15 The syndicated loan market in Poland Rankings based on publications in the Polish daily newspaperrzeczpospolita*) no 2009 ranking due to financial crisis. Kredyty konsorcjalne * w Polsce I-IX 2010 Wartość w mln PLN Liczba transakcji Kredyty konsorcjalne w Polsce 2008 Wartość w mln PLN Liczba transakcji Kredyty konsorcjalne w Polsce 2007 Wartość w mln PLN 1 Bank Pekao SA Bank Pekao SA Bank Pekao SA BRE Bank Bank Zachodni WBK BRE Bank PKO BP PKO BP PKO BP BZ WBK BRE Bank Kredyt Bank ING Bank Śląski ING Bank Śląski ok Bank Handlowy Raiffeisen Bank Kredyt Bank ok Bank BGŻ Bank BGŻ Bank BGŻ Societe Generale Kredyt Bank Bank Handlowy Bank Zachodni WBK *nie uwzględniają konsorcjów dot. programów emisji obligacji objęty ch przez Banki dla PGE oraz PGNiG Liczba transakcji 9 Societe Generale ING Bank Śląski 45 3 Żródło: Rzeczpospolita, 16 grudnia 2010 Żródło: Rzeczpospolita, 19 sty cznia 2009 Żródło: Rzeczpospolita * Rankings relate to syndications conducted by banks with registered HQ in Poland. 15

16 Medium term bond market in Poland Value of registered issues of medium term corporate bonds for trading in Poland, as of 30 June 2011 Source: Fitch Ratings, Rating & Rynek amounts in MPLN 16

17 Selected transactions relating to the Power sector in Poland. PKN Orlen S.A. Tauron Polska Energia Revolving Credit Facility EUR Bookrunning MLA Poland, 2011 Underwritten bond program PLN Joint organiser 2010/2011 PGNiG S.A. Leading Advisory in privatization of SPEC and Vattenfall Heat Poland Poland, 2011 PGE SA Tauron Polska Energia Underwritten bond program PLN Joint organiser 2010 Underwritten bond program PLN Joint organiser

18 Thank you for your attention 18