Debt and (not much) deleveraging

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1 Debt and (not much) deleveraging Peterson Institute for International Economics Susan Lund, McKinsey Global Institute

2 Global debt has increased by $57 trillion since the crisis began with $25 trillion increase in the private sector Global debt outstanding by type 1 $ trillion, constant 2013 exchange rates Household Corporate 58 Government Financial Total debt as % of GDP 4Q00 4Q07 2Q Q14 data for advanced economies and China; 4Q13 data for other developing economies. SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute analysis

3 Household debt Hidden time bomb?

4 Household leverage outside the core crisis countries continues to grow Household debt-to-income ratio, Q14 % XX Change in debt-to-income ratio, Q14 Percentage points Denmark Norway Netherlands Australia Ireland United -17 Kingdom Spain -13 United States Sweden Canada Malaysia South Korea Thailand Finland France Q Q14 SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute analysis

5 Changes in house prices are correlated with changes in household debt-to-income across countries Change in household debt to income , Percentage points Ireland Thailand Korea Poland Canada Sweden Czech Republic Belgium France Russia Indonesia Netherlands Denmark Finland Australia Italy South Africa Norway Spain Japan United States United Kingdom Germany Singapore Advanced economies Developing economies Correlation coefficient = 60% Malaysia China Change in house price , % SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute analysis

6 US states with the greatest increase in house prices before 2007 also saw the biggest rise in debt-to-income ratios Household debt-to-income ratio 1, % House price increase , % Debt-to-income ratio End-2013, % California Nevada Arizona Maryland Florida Illinois New York Ohio Texas Kansas Household debt balances by state are estimated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York based on the population with a credit report. We estimate household debt to disposable income by state using additional data from the US Census Bureau. SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute analysis

7 In Denmark, the wealthiest households had the largest increase in leverage - in contrast to the United States Median debt-to-income ratio for indebted households by income percentile, % Denmark United States Income percentile Change in debt-toincome ratio, Percentage points Median debtto-income ratio, 2013, % < < SOURCE: Statistics Denmark microdata; US Survey of Consumer Finances microdata; McKinsey Global Institute analysis

8 In Denmark, the wealthiest households had the largest increase in leverage - in contrast to the United States Median debt-to-income ratio for indebted households by income percentile, % Denmark United States Income percentile Change in debt-toincome ratio, Percentage points Median debtto-income ratio, 2013, % < < SOURCE: Statistics Denmark microdata; US Survey of Consumer Finances microdata; McKinsey Global Institute analysis 7

9 Household debt in seven countries appears most worrisome Highest Country Debt-to-income ratio, 2Q14, % Change in debt-toincome ratio, Q14, p.p. Debt servicing ratio, 2013, % Lowest House price increase, Q14, % Netherlands South Korea Canada Sweden Denmark Norway Australia Malaysia Thailand Ireland Belgium Finland UK Spain Portugal China France Brazil Russia United States Germany Italy SOURCE: National sources; BIS; Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Survey; IMF; McKinsey Global Institute analysis

10 China s soaring debt Three risks to watch

11 China s debt reached 282 percent of GDP in 2014, higher than debt levels in some advanced economies Debt-to-GDP ratio, % Household Non-Corporate Government Financial China By country, 2Q China Q14 Australia United States Germany Canada NOTE: Numbers may not sum due to rounding. SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute analysis

12 Nearly half of China s debt is related to real estate China s real economy outstanding debt by sector, 2Q14 % 14 Real estate sector Other sectors 56 0% = $21.6 trillion 12 Real estate - related sectors 8 Local govt. financing vehicles (LGFV) Household mortgages SOURCE: People s Bank of China; National Audit Office; McKinsey Global Institute analysis

13 Local government debt has grown rapidly since 2007, linked to real estate and infrastructure Outstanding balance of China s government debt by source $ trillion, constant exchange rate, Local government bonds Other local government debt 40% of loans are repaid with land sales 1.7 LGFV bank loans Central government debt 20% of new loans are used to repay old loans Q14 1 Local government financing vehicles. SOURCE: People s Bank of China; National Audit Office; IMF; McKinsey Global Institute analysis

14 Shadow bank loans now accounts for 30 percent of outstanding Chinese debt Composition of China s debt, 2Q14 1 $ trillion Total = $21.6 trillion Banks 53% 30% 30.0% Shadow bank loans 2 Shadow banking entities $ trillion Wealth management products Entrusted loans Credit growth Q14 % Trust loans % Government bonds 4% Corporate bonds Financing companies and other loans Excludes financial-sector debt. 2 Includes loans from world co-operatives, microcredit institutions, Internet peer-to-peer lending, and informal loans. SOURCE: People s Bank of China; National Bureau of Statistics of China; National Audit Office; BIS; CICC; Goldman Sachs; expert interviews; McKinsey Global Institute analysis

15 China s government could raise enough debt to recapitalize the financial system, even if half of property loans defaulted Government debt-to-gdp % 1 Required increase to cover losses Assumptions: Default rate Property loans = 50% Property related = 40% Recovery rate = 20% Advanced economy average Current Debt 2Q-2014 China SOURCE: People s Bank of China; expert interviews; McKinsey Global Institute analysis

16 Shadow banking Out of the shadows

17 The financial sector in advanced economies has deleveraged since the crisis Financial-sector debt (% of GDP) Index: 0 = Financial sector debt-to-gdp, % Peak 2Q France United Kingdom Netherlands Japan United States Germany Q00 4Q07 4Q09 2Q14 NOTE: Debt as percent of GDP is indexed to 0 in 2000; numbers here are not actual figures. SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute analysis

18 Shadow banking entities and instruments that were important before the crisis have declined $ trillion CDS Repos (Europe) Repos United States Money market funds CDO/CMO ABCP SIV Decrease since 2007, % 1 As of June 30, SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute analysis

19 Non-bank sources are ~50% of private sector credit in advanced economies Outstanding debt in advanced economies 1 $ trillion, constant exchange rates Compound annual growth rate (%) Non - bank loans Securitization Corporate bonds Bank loans Share of nonbank credit, % United States, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Spain, Netherlands, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and Australia. 2 As of June 30, SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute analysis

20 Since 2009, net new bank lending to corporates has been replaced by other sources Change in corporate debt in advanced economies 1 $ trillion, constant exchange rates Cumulative change $ trillion Non-bank loans Corporate bonds Bank loans Securitization Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, South Korea, Spain, United Kingdom, United States. 2 As of June 30, SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute analysis

21 Assets of credit funds have more than doubled since 2009 AUM of credit funds of 8 alternative asset managers, $ billion CVC KKR Carlyle Group Ares Compound annual growth rate, , % Types of credit, Distressed debt Direct lending Blackstone Sakaty Oaktree Apollo Structured credit Mezzanine Other 2 1 As of September 30, 2014; Sakaty as of July 1, Includes $48 billion of assets of Apollo s insurance subsidiary Athene. NOTE: Numbers may not sum due to rounding SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute analysis

22 Finding stability in an indebted world

23 Eight tools for boosting financial stability in an indebted world 1 Encourage innovation in mortgage contracts 2 Improve process for private sector debt restructuring Use macroprudential tools to dampen credit cycles Reduce tax incentives for debt Consider a broader range of tools for resolving sovereign debt Improve data collection and monitoring of debt 7 Create a healthy mix of bank and non-bank credit sources 8 Promote healthy financial deepening in developing economies

24 Thank you Download McKinsey Global Institute reports: Follow us on

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