Science for Hurricane Sandy Recovery

Transcription

1 Science for Hurricane Sandy Recovery Boston New York Philadelphia Radley Horton and Cynthia Rosenzweig May 23,

2 Hurricane Sandy as Tipping Point Leadership in responding to climate change Municipal, state, and federal alignment Science in place and in <me 2

3 Hurricane Sandy Coastal flood eleva<ons in New York Harbor were the highest in all ~300 years of New York City (and New Amsterdam) history The storm <de (total water eleva<on) at The BaMery was 13.9 P, with a peak storm surge of 9.2 P coming close to high <de This is about 5 P above many of the area s lower sea walls. Storm forecast well in advance Lowest recorded central pressure north of Cape HaKeras, NC at 943 mb Storm track forecasts ExcepBonally large wind field tropical storm force winds over ~500 miles from the center 3

4 Hurricane Sandy Immediate PreparaBons New York City issued mandatory evacua8on of Zone A on October 28, 2012 MTA closed down opera8ons and boarded and placed sandbags at subway entrances to protect against flooding Out- of- state u8lity crews brought in before the storm Evacua8on Not complete 43 people died in NYC U8li8es Not prepared 4 million without power MTA/DOT Major flooding 7 subway lines under East River, 3 tunnels closed 4

5 Climate Change and a Global City 2001 The PotenBal Consequences of Climate Variability and Change Metro East Coast (MEC) July 2001 Hurricane Sandy ForecasBng the Impacts Interdependent Cri8cal Infrastructure Systems and Vulnerable Communi8es South Ferry Subway StaBon Beach erosion and boardwalk damage in the Rockaways Spencer PlaM GeMy Images Extensive power outages Hardest hit areas Many impacts forecast well in advance 5

6 THE TOP 20 COASTAL STORM FLOODS THE BATTERY NEW YORK CITY LAST 74 YEARS STORM DATE WATER LEVEL (NAVD) FT M Hurricane Sandy 10/29/ Hurricane Donna 9/12/ Nor easter Dec /11/ Hurricane Irene 8/28/ Nor easter 11/25/ Ash Wednesday storm 3/6-7/ Nor easter 3/13-14/ Halloween ( Perfect Storm ) 10/31/ Blizzard of 84 3/29/ Nor easter 1/2/ Storm of the Century 3/14/ Nor easter 11/12/ Nor easter 4/13/ Nor easter 2/19/ Nor easter 3/20/ Nor easter 10/19/ Hurricane Gloria 9/27/ Long Island Express 9/21/ Hurricane of /14/ Nor Ida 11/13-14/

7 Gas shortages Hurricane Sandy Unforeseen Impacts William Perlman/The Star- Ledger Hospital evacua<ons John Minchillo, AP Fires Jon Eiseman 7

8 DocumenBng and Studying the Impacts High Water Mark at South Street Seaport Damaged Home in Staten Island Phil Orton, Stevens Ins<tute of Technology Boardwalk and Beach Damage in Rockaway Park, Queens, NY Somayya Ali, Columbia University South Ferry Subway StaBon in ManhaKan Gary Monitz, Columbia University Daniel Bader, Columbia University 8

9 CCRUN Tracked the Storm New York Harbor Observing and Predic<on System (NYHOPS Model), Stevens Ins<tute of Technology Storm surge forecast Wind speed observa<ons from NYCMetNet CUNY/ NOAA Coopera<ve Remote Sensing 9 Science and Technology Center (CREST)

10 New York City AdaptaBon Process Mayor Leadership ImplementaBon City Agencies - Regional Authori<es - Private Stakeholders Stakeholder Task Force CCATF C W W City- wide Sustainability Office OLTPS P E T Integra<on across Sector- specific Working Groups - Energy (E) - Transporta<on (T) - Policy (P) - Water & Waste (WW) - Communica<ons (C) Expert Panel NPCC University scholars and private sector experts - Social, biological, and physical scien<sts - Legal and insurance experts - Risk management professionals Climate Science CoordinaBon Source: NPCC,

11 Hurricane Sandy Links to Climate Change Science ~1 l of sea level rise in past 100 years in New York metropolitan region, due to local land subsidence, global thermal expansion of ocean water, melbng of land- based ice, and local surface elevabon Sea level rise at BaKery, NYC , NPCC Hurricane Sandy is defined as a 1 in mulb- century event in current climate Coastal flooding projected to occur more frequently and to greater extent in future due to sea- level rise alone North AtlanBc SSTs and Hurricane Power DissipaBon Index , Emmanuel Frequency of intense hurricanes in the North AtlanBc may increase in future* ArcBc sea- ice may influencing the jet stream, possibly making westward- turning storm tracks more likely** **Areas of acbve research Median Minimum Sea Ice Extent

12 2013 NPCC2 Sea Level Rise Components SLR Component Global or Local Method References Ocean height Local CMIP5 data Global thermal expansion Global CMIP5 data hmp://cmip- pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/ hmp://cmip- pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/ Land height Local Latest version of Pel<er s Glacial Isosta<c Adjustment (GIA) model Pel<er, 2012 Meltwater Global Based on literature, used updated observa<ons of ice sheets and sea level, paleoclimate studies, and modeling Bamber and Aspinall, 2013; Radic, 2013; Marzeion, 2012 Gravita<onal, isosta<c, and rota<onal Local New terms added based on literature review Mitrovica et al., 2009; PerreMe et al., 2013; Gomez et al., 2010; Miller and Kopp, unpubl. Land water storage Global New terms added based on literature review Konikow, 2011; Wada et al., 2012; Pokhrel et al., 2012 TOTAL SLR Local Devised a probabilis<c and risk- based approach that integrates the above terms NPCC2 Climate Risk Informa<on

13 ArcBc Sea Ice has been decreasing rapidly; more rapidly than projected by climate models Liu et al., PNAS 2012 Change in winter snow cover (%) corresponding to a 1 million square km decrease in autumn arc?c sea ice area Source: NPCC,

14 Horton, Liu, and Tillinger, in prepara8on 14

15 CCRUN Post- Hurricane Sandy Research Agenda Weather and Climate Key areas to research include: Assess progress in forecast skill. Evaluate historical flood heights, including those of Hurricane Sandy, to see if 1/100 storm height needs to be revised. Research the influence of large- scale changes on hurricane strength and path (e.g., changes in North Atlan<c Ocean temperatures, interac<ons with mid- la<tude storms, and changes in large- scale steering pamerns). Inves<gate how climate change may affect future storms and their impacts as sea levels rise. 15

16 CCRUN Post- Hurricane Sandy Integrated Research Agenda Vulnerability and AdaptaBon Study the determinants of social resilience to coastal flooding in urban neighborhoods and why vulnerability and resilience differ across communi8es that experience the same flood levels. Research whether poorer people suffer larger impacts and are less able to recover than the less poor, and whether poverty magnifies vulnerability only in some contexts, such as in public housing with its complexity of exacerba<ng factors. Examine the interac<ons between characteris<cs of households, communi<es, and ins<tu<ons that create different pamerns of vulnerability in different communi<es and how city and neighborhood agencies can help to build resilience in communi<es that experience different types of vulnerability. Collect data within communi<es that document why people did or did not evacuate, why they did or did not prepare, how and why coping strategies and assistance received differed across neighborhoods, how obstacles faced differed across neighborhoods, and how and why the economic impacts differed across neighborhoods. Monitor how and why the recovery process proceeds differently in different neighborhoods. 16

17 CCRUN Post- Hurricane Sandy Research Agenda Coastal Zones Key research topics include: Develop new metrics of coastal storm risk that communicate danger beker, e.g., how can we translate storm- surge height into flood danger or other human- scale metrics; include danger from waves in communicabons as well as surge. Create high- fidelity web- based models of street- level flooding. Evaluate role and extent required of wetlands and other ecologically- based adapta<on approaches in absorbing coastal flooding and wave damage. Conduct assessment of storm- surge barriers, in regard to feasibility and economic, environmental, and social costs and benefits. Design and assess protec<ve measures such as subway and tunnel closures; raising of power sta<ons, etc. Evaluate role of policies, planning, design, and insurance in developing resilient coastal communi<es. Develop and test geoengineering approaches to reducing intensity of hurricanes. 17

18 CCRUN Post- Hurricane Sandy Research Agenda Water Resources With the occurrence of extreme precipita<on events associated with hurricanes and storms, new analysis is needed to improve and update the Intensity Dura<on Frequency (IDF) curves used to design stormwater and sewer systems. Innova<ve approaches include: Analyze high- resolubon data to update exposure to extreme precipitabon events over the storm sewer network. Stochas<c simula<ons of poten<al simultaneous or discrete exceedences of a specified rainfall intensity- dura<on can be generated to facilitate several scenario analyses. 18

19 CCRUN Post- Hurricane Sandy Research Agenda Public Health Hurricane Sandy caused over 110 deaths spread over 9 northeastern states. These figures do not account for longer term health problems that are likely to emerge over Bme: mold- related respiratory disease, gastrointesbnal infecbons from contaminated water, and a range of mental health outcomes, to name a few. Research is urgently needed into measures that can reduce both the immediate and longer term health impacts of future storm events in the NE. This research will be enhanced by partnerships between health and climate scien<sts, along stakeholder organiza<ons and the public. Epidemiology of the immediate deaths that occurred, as well as the evacuabon of the hospitals 19

20 CCRUN Post- Hurricane Sandy Research Agenda Green Infrastructure Research the effecbveness of the northeast region s porvolio of green infrastructure. QuesBons include: Can real damages associated with hurricane Sandy be correlated with the degree to which green infrastructure was interspersed within or surrounded specific regional development clusters? What types of damages were averted due explicitly to the presence of green infrastructure? Did the placement, density, or type of green infrastructure relabve to the posibon both of the coastline and specific urban clusters play a role in the extent to which GI was able to provide damage reducbon? What kind of impacts did Hurricane Sandy have on regional green infrastructure? How long will it take for the green infrastructure to rebound? Did the presence of green infrastructure actually increase any risks to human communi<es, for example falling trees? 20

21 CCRUN Policy InteracBons CCRUN is providing New York City with updated climate change scenarios for rebuilding Mayor s Special IniBaBve on Rebuilding Hardest Hit Areas Commission on Buildings; climate informabon for new regulabons Metropolitan TransportaBon Authority; Chief Engineers CCRUN extended ClimAID projecbons to 2100 for New York State Commissions convened by Governor Cuomo Emergency Readiness, 2100 Infrastructure, InteracBve Systems Response, CoordinaBon efforts underway to link Federal coastal mapping with local sea level rise informabon 21

22 CiBes and Climate Change Moving Forward At Doha and Beyond Shanghai, China Hyderabad, India Esmeraldas, Ecuador Embed cibes first responders role in climate change mibgabon and adaptabon into internabonal agreements Enhance science base Link to emerging Sustainable Development Goals Develop and implement common sets of standards for reporbng Greenhouse gas emissions and reducbons (underway); Impacts of climate on cibes; AdaptaBons Develop innovabve mulb- jurisdicbon financing measures for mibgabon and adaptabon Engage cibzens BoKom- up approach Especially those from the poorest and most vulnerable urban neighborhoods who are already suffering the most from climate change 22

23 References and Links Consor<um for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast ( NYSERDA ClimAID ( New York City Panel on Climate Change report available online at ( NPCC 23