2 Comisión Nacional de Energía Eléctrica President Carlos Eduardo Colom Bickford Director Enrique Moller Hernández Director César Augusto Fernández Fernández General Manager Sergio Oswaldo Velásquez Moreno Developed by: Strategic Projects Division Strategic Projects Division Chief José Rafael Argueta Monterroso Project Planning Department Chief Fernando Alfredo Moscoso Lira
3 Work Team Edwin Roberto Castro Hurtarte Gustavo Adolfo Ruano Martínez Juan Carlos Morataya Ramos Alejandra Patricia Maldonado Castellanos Luis Fernando Rodríguez Santizo INDEX Index...3 Figures & tables index...5 Executive summary...8 Introduction...10 Goals...11 Chapter 1 National electric subsector...12 National electric market...12 Legal structure...14 National electric market structure...15 Steady demand & efficient steady supply...17 Current transmission system...19
4 Expansion plan of the transmission system Indicators of national power grid...25 Electricity distribution system...27 Energy & power...29 Demand marginal cost to short-term (spot price)...31 Gross domestic product (GDP)...32 Load curve...34 Chapter 2 Study premises...35 Demand...35 Fuels...37 New generating plants...38 Simulated cases...39 Hydrology...39 Chapter 3 Study results...41 Case Case Case Case Case Nodal Losses...68 Conclusions...73 Bibliography...75 Anex A...76 Acronyms...76 Measuring units...77 Multiples...77 Anex B References...77
5 FIGURES & TABLES INDEX Figures Figure 1-1 Electric sub-sector structure...1 Figure 1-2 Steady demand...17 Figure 1-3 Efficient steady supply by fuel type...18 Figure 1-4 Ownership of the transmission lines of 230kv and 69kv, respectively...20 Figure 1-5 Ownership of the transmission lines of 230kv, Figure 1-6 Current transmission system, Figure 1-7 Expansion plan of the transmission system, Figure 1-8 Renewable energy generation (gwh) years 2009, 2008 and 2007, respectively...25 Figure 1-9 Non-renewable energy generation (gwh) years 2009, 2008 and 2007, respectively...26
6 Figure 1-10 Percentage of energy consumption by participant...28 Figure 1-11 Historic of energy consumed by distribution companies Figure 1-12 Historic of steady demand by distribution companies Figure 1-13 SPOT behavior Figure 1-14 Variation of energy demand vs. gdp Figure 1-15 Variation of power demand vs. gdp Figure 1-16 Hourly load curve, period Figure 1-17 Hourly load curve, period Figure 2-1 Energy and power demand scenarios...36 Figure 2-2 Projection of fuels during the period Figure 3-1 Energy matrix, 2010 and 2015, case Figure 3-2 Energy dispatch, case Figure 3-3 Available power-demand, case Figure 3-4 Demand marginal cost, case Figure 3-5 Energy matrix, 2010 and 2015, case Figure 3-6 Energy dispatch, case Figure 3-7 Available power-demand, case Figure 3-8 Demand marginal cost, case Figure 3-9 Energy matrix, 2010 and 2015, case Figure 3-10 Energy dispatch, case Figure 3-11 Available power-demand, case Figure 3-12 Demand marginal cost, case Figure 3-13 Energy matrix, 2010 and 2015, case Figure 3-14 Energy dispatch, case Figure 3-15 Available power-demand, case Figure 3-16 Demand marginal cost, case Figure 3-17 Energy matrix, 2010 and 2015, case Figure 3-18 Energy dispatch, case Figure 3-19 Available power-demand, case Figure 3-20 Demand marginal cost, case Figure 3-21 Nodal losses factor, load nodes 69kv...69 Figure 3-22 Nodal losses factor, load nodes 69kv...69 Figure 3-23 Nodal losses factor, new pet nodes 230kv...70 Figure 3-24 Nodal losses factor, new pet nodes 230kv...70 Figure 3-25 Nodal losses factor, existing nodes 230kv...71 Figure 3-26 Nodal losses factor, existing nodes 230kv...71 Tables Table 1-1 Steady demand period Table 1-2 Efficient steady supply period Table 1-3 Length (km) of lines of sin by voltage level...20 Table 1-4 Length (km) of lines of sin by transmission company...20 Table 1-5 Length (km) of transmission lines of pet by lot...21 Table 1-6 National power grid indicators during Table 1-7 Distributing companies & region...27
7 Table 1-8 Energy consumption by participant...28 Tabla 2-1 GDP growth rates (%) according to scenario demand...35 Table 2-2 Demand scenarios Table 2-3 Initial price of fuels...37 Table 2-4 New power plants...38
8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This document s goal is point the prospects of the electricity supply of the National Electric System and identify the likely scenarios of its behavior in the medium term ( ). For this study we have established the followings scenarios: demand (medium and high) and the fuel price trend (high and reference). We simulated the start-up of the following hydroelectric power stations: Xacbal (07/2010), Santa Teresa (08/2010), El Manantial (06/2011), El Cóbano (12/2011), Palo Viejo (06/2012) and San Cristóbal (06/2013); the geothermal power stations: Duke Phase 1 (06/2010), Duke Phase 2 (01/2011), Esi (11/2012) and Jaguar (05/2013); and Guatemala- México 80 MW Interconnection (08/2013) (increase to the capacity already in operation of 120 MW). The following table shows the scenarios combination, which were simulated with the model of economic dispatch in the period ( ). Case Type of Demand Fuel Trend Plants 1 Medium Reference Table Medium High Table High Referencie Table High High Table Medium Referencie The fifth case determinate the generation technology type that delete the volatility of demand marginal cost in the transition of dry season to wet season and that demand marginal cost decreases after year The following table shows a summary of the results, indicating the percentage of generation by fuel type for year 2010 and 2015, generation with bunker year 2015, the average of demand marginal cost and the probable deficit in the study period. We can observe the increase produced in generation with base fuel due to the start-up of the geothermal power station Jaguar, and the start-up of the hydroelectric power stations Xacbal, San Cristobal, Santa Teresa, El Manantial, El Cóbano and Palo Viejo, which reduces in a significant percentage generation with bunker.
9 Results table, summary Case Type of Demand Fuel Trend Coal Bunker Hydro 2010 (%) 2015 (%) 2010 (%) 2015 (%) 2010 (%) 2015 (%) Generation whit Bunker year 2015 (GWh) Average Demand Marginal Cost (US$/MWh) Probable Deficit (MWh) 1 Medium Reference Medium High High Reference High High Medium Reference
10 INTRODUCTION The Strategic Projects Division as part of National Electric Energy Commission presents it s Medium-term prospects ( ) for electricity supply of the National Electric System, which considered the generating plants in commercial operation until date, also including new generating projects that are close to startup, including the interconnection with Mexico (which increases its existing capacity of 120MW to 200MW); hydroelectric power stations: Xacbal, San Cristobal, Santa Teresa, El Manantial, El Cóbano and Palo Viejo; and geothermal power stations: Jaguar, Esi and Duke. In this technical study is evaluated the energy dispatch, the available power of generating plants, the demand marginal cost and the energy matrix for a period of five years taking into consideration the electricity demand, hydrology and trend of fuel costs. For this purpose were performed two demand scenarios and two fuel trend scenarios. The activities developed in the study s preparation included the following activities: a) Prepare the demand growth projection for the period in two representative scenarios. b) Identification of two scenarios for fuel prices according to the projections made by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA. c) Prepare the list of generating projects under construction which have a certainty of the start-up date.
11 d) Determination of the simulation premises for different scenarios of fuel prices and demand growth. e) Simulation of the energy dispatch of the generating plants considered in the study, starting operation in the specified time. GOALS 1. Determine the prospects for electricity supply of National Electric System identifying the likely scenarios for his behavior in the medium term ( ). 2. Estimate the demand marginal cost to short-term (Spot price) in the National Power Grid considering the start-up of new generating plants in addition to existing generation facilities. 3. Determine that the start-up of new generating plants to the National Power Grid will increase the reliability and will improve the quality of the electricity supply. 4. Set up technology of generating that eliminates the volatility of demand marginal cost, in the period of transition from dry season to wet season, and reduce the demand marginal cost after 2015.
12 5. Provide a technical-economic guide to the investor, national and foreign, to report about the growth prospects of the electric sub-sector to facilitate their decisions. 6. Estimate the Factors of nodal losses in the National Power Grid, considering the building facilities in the Expansion Plan of the Transmission System CAPÍTULO 1 NATIONAL ELECTRIC SUBSECTOR NATIONAL ELECTRIC MARKET The regulatory structure in which is supports the Guatemalan electric sub-sector is based on a competitive market allowing the access to the National Power Grid to any individual or legal person who wants it, fulfilling the legal requirements established by the General Law of Electricity and its Regulations, thereby setting a balanced system of supply and demand prices, creating the conditions for competition. Prices are set by the regulator when there is existence of natural monopolies. In the Guatemalan electric sub-sector are five participants: Generating,
13 Transmission and Distributing Companies; Power Marketers and Large power users; Article 6 of the General Law of Electricity provides definitions for each one of them being these: a) Generating Company: An individual or legal person who owns or is in possession of a power generating station and who sells commercially all or part of its output. b) Transmission Company: An individual or legal person owning a facility for electricity transmission and transformation. c) Distributing Company: An individual or legal person who owns or is in possession of facilities intended for the commercial distribution of electricity. d) Power Marketer: An individual or legal person whose activities are related to the purchase and sale of blocks of power, without itself being engaged in power generation, transmission, distribution, or consumption. e) Large power user: A customer whose power demand exceeds the ceiling specified for such purpose in regulations under this law (100kW maximum demand).
14 The generation activity takes place in a free and competitive context, composed for an opportunity market or short-term market that is based on the energy dispatch at marginal cost and a term market or long-term market where the terms are freely agreed as regards the period, the price and the amount of power and energy to hire. The transmission and distribution activities are regulated by standards issued by the regulator system, in this case the National Electric Energy Commission. The Wholesale Market Administrator is a private nonprofit entity that coordinates transactions among the participants of the Wholesale Market, to ensure a free market competition, with clear rules and to encourage electric system investments, as well as watch over to keep quality of the electricity supply service in Guatemala. LEGAL STRUCTURE The legal structure which governs the electric sub-sector is based on the following: I. General Law of Electricity, Decree No II. Regulation of the General Law of Electricity, Government Agreement No and its reforms III. Wholesale Market Administrator, Government Agreement No and its reforms IV. Technical Standards issued by the National Electric Energy Commission V. Commercial and Operative Coordination Standards of the Wholesale Market Administrator The General Law of Electricity is the base for electricity issues and it is supported on the following principles:
15 I. The existence of an unrestricted market for electricity generation, with no requirement of prior State authorization or condition other than the ones provided in the Constitution and laws of Guatemala. However, the use of the State s property for these purposes will require proper authorization by the Ministry when the central s power exceeds 5MW. II. The existence of an unrestricted market for the transmission of electricity, as long as there is no public property to be used for it, and likewise, there exists a free market for private electricity distribution service. III. Authorization is required for power transmission where public property is required to be used, and for distribution of power to the final customer. IV. Electric service rates may be freely set, except for transmission and distribution service rates for which an authorization is required. Wholesale power transfers between generating companies, power marketers, importers and exporters shall be regulated as provided in this law. NATIONAL ELECTRIC MARKET STRUCTURE The Guatemalan electric sub-sector is structured on the following way:
16 Figure 1-1 Electric Sub-Sector Structure Ministry of Energy and Mines MEM : It is the body of the State responsible of the formulation and coordination of policies, State plans, indicative programs related to the electric sub-sector. In charge of reviewing that the authorization process of generating plants installation and that provision service of transportation and distribution, is according to law. Likewise, it is in charge of all juridical regime issues applicable to generation, transmission, distribution and commercialization of electricity, hydrocarbons and mining resources exploitation. National Electric Energy Commission CNEE : It is the regulator of the electric sub-sector responsible of reviewing the fulfillment of the General Law of Electricity and its Regulations with planning functions; bidding new generation and expanding the Transmission System to satisfy National Power Grid needs. It creates conditions according to the Law, for any individual or legal person that could develop the activities of generation, transmission, distribution or commercialization; strengthening those activities with the emission of technical standards and disciplinary actions, as well as defining the tariffs and calculation methodology. Generating Co. Transmission Co. Power Marketers Large Power Users Distributing Co. Wholesale Market Administrator AMM : Private entity responsible of dispatching and programming the operation and coordination of the National Power Grid, "SNI" (by its Spanish acronym), within the quality requirements of service and security, also the post-dispatch and the administration of commercial transactions of the Wholesale Market. Its aim is to guarantee the proper functioning of the SNI and the interconnections.
17 STEADY DEMAND & EFFICIENT STEADY SUPPLY The Steady Demand 1 for is shown below: Table 1-1 Steady Demand period i Steady Demand Participants MW % EEM % Large Power Users % Distributing Companies % Total % Figure 1-2 Steady Demand Source: AMM, Steady Demand Steady Demand: This is the power demand calculated by the Wholesale Market Administrator (AMM), that has to be contracted by each Distributor or Major User.
18 We describe below the Efficient Steady Supply 2 by fuel type for the period : Table 1-2 Efficient Steady Supply Period ii Efficient Steady Supply Fuel type MW % Geothermal % Coal % Sugar Mills (bunker) % Diesel % Biomass % Hydro % Bunker % Total % Figure 1-3 Efficient Steady Supply by fuel type 2 Efficient Steady Supply: This is the maximum power amount that a power station can compromise in contracts to fulfill the Steady Demand calculated based on its maximum power, its availability and the efficiency of the power station.
19 Source: AMM, Efficient Steady Supply CURRENT TRANSMISSION SYSTEM The transmission system in Guatemala has an infrastructure that allows the electricity supply from the principal generating plants to the consumption centers, as shown in the table below through a network of 1063 Km approximately, in voltages of 138 kv and 230 kv, and a transformation capacity of 1445 MVA in 230 kv and 319 MVA in 138 kv. For 69 kv of voltage are around of 2687 Km of transmission lines that allows to supply Distribution System s and Large power users, the transformation capacity amounts to 760 MVA. In Guatemala, there are four companies that provide electric power transportation service, being those with the highest number of km owned the Empresa de Transporte y Control de Energía Eléctrica of the Instituo Nacional de Electrificación ETCEE (by its Spanish acronym) and Transportista Eléctrica Centroamericana S.A. TRELEC (by its Spanish acronym). However, the
20 transmission system also includes transmission lines owned to Wholesale Market Agents, whose aim is the connection to the National Power Grid. Table 1-3 Length (Km) of lines of SIN by voltage level iii Voltage (kv) Length (Km) Total 3750 Table 1-4 Length (Km) of lines of SIN by Transmission Company iv Transmission Company Length (Km) by voltage level 230 kv 138 kv 69 kv Total Empresa de Transporte y Control de Energía Eléctrica Redes Eléctricas de Centroamérica, S.A Duke Energy Intenational Transmision Guatemala, Ltda Transportista Eléctrica Centroamericana, S.A Total The figure below shows the ownership of the transmission lines for 230kV y 69kV in percentage; the 100% of the 138kV transmission lines are property of ETCEE. Figure 1-4 Ownership of the transmission lines of 230kV and 69kV, respectively
21 EXPANSION PLAN OF THE TRANSMISSION SYSTEM The Expansion plan of the Transmission System PET (by its Spanish acronym) was based on satisfy the SNI needs regarding electricity transmission. We identified the critical points in the system and raised new projects of transmission lines, substations and their respective equipment. The works comprising the PET are arranged in five loops Metropacific, Hydraulic, Atlantic, Eastern and Western. These loops are comprised of six lots as shown in the table below: Table 1-5 Length (Km) of transmission lines of PET by lot v Length (Km) Lot 230kV A 91 B 211 C 102 D 186 E 115 F 140 Total 845 On January 20, 2010, the Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM) issued a resolution which approves and awards the electricity service provision through the adjudication of the value of the annual canon to the Consortium EEG-EDM Guatemala Project. Finally, on February 22, 2010, the authorization contract for the execution transmission works of the lots A, B, C, D, E and F is signed; with 845 Km of transmission lines approximately, awarded as a result of the International Open Tender process for the provision of electricity transmission service through the adjudication of the value of the annual canon to the company Transportadora de Energía de Centroamérica, Sociedad Anónima TRECSA (by its Spanish acronym) constituted in Guatemala by the Consortium EEG-EDM Guatemala Project.
22 Whit the PET culmination, 2013, the SNI will have an approximate of 1611 Km of 230kV transmission lines, of which 52.45% will belong to TRECSA. The following figure shows the ownership of the transmission lines of 230kV once concluded the PET. Figure 1-5 Ownership of the transmission lines of 230kV, 2013
23 Figure 1-6 Current Transmission System, 2009
24 Figure 1-7 Expansion Plan of the Transmission System,
25 INDICATORS OF NATIONAL POWER GRID For the period from January 1 to December 31, 2009, the total of energy generation was 8, GWh, of which 99.5% were generated locally, and 0.5% were imported from the Regional Electricity Market MER (by its Spanish acronym). The energy exported to the MER was GWh, being this the 1.17% of the total generation of the country, reaching a 22% of participation on the energy injections into the MER. The internal consumption of energy reached 7, GWh including: own consumption of units, of generating plants and equipment of electricity transmission. The average of the opportunity price was US$/MWh, showing a decrease of 16.69% over the previous year. The maximum power demand occurred on December 15, 2009 reaching 1, MW. The load factor calculated for the system was 61.41%. Table 1-6 National Power Grid indicators during 2009 vi National Power Grid indicators, 2009 Local Generation GWh Internal Consumption GWh Exports GWh Imports GWh SPOT Price (Average) US$/MWh Maximum Demand MW Load Factor % Source: AMM, 2009 Statistical Report Figure 1-8 Renewable Energy Generation (GWh) years 2009, 2008 and 2007, respectively vii
26 Figure 1-9 Non-Renewable Energy Generation (GWh) years 2009, 2008 and 2007, respectively
27 ELECTRICITY DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM The distribution system of Guatemala consists of lines, substations and distribution networks operating at medium voltage. In Guatemala, there are three main companies that offer the service of electricity distribution, as well as municipal enterprises, in the following table we indicate these companies and the region in which they serve. Table 1-7 Distributing Companies & Region Distributing Company Empresa Eléctrica de Guatemala, S.A. (EEGSA) Distribuidora de Electricidad de Occidente, S.A. (DEOCSA) Distribuidora de Electricidad de Oriente, S.A. (DEORSA) Empresas Eléctricas Municipales Region Central area (Guatemala, Escuintla, Sacatepéquez) North-South-West area North-South-East area
28 Of 8, GWh that were obtained of the total generation 2009, 67.7% was consumed by distribution companies, being 35.7% consumed by EEGSA, 10.9% by DEORSA, 14.9% by DEOCSA and 6.2% by Municipal Electric Companies. The country's energy consumption is presented in the table below: Table 1-8 Energy Consumption by Participant Participants GWh Power Marketers EEGSA DEORSA DEOCSA Empresas Eléctricas Municipales Own Consumption Large Power Users Losses Exports Total Source: AMM, 2009 Statistical Report Figure 1-10 Percentage of Energy consumption by Participant
29 ENERGY & POWER The energy consumed by distributors has changed since the beginning of the market, from to 1,195.3 GWh for DEOCSA, from to GWh for DEORSA and from 2,918.2 to 2,863.7 GWh for EEGSA; being the 39.41% and 39.05% for DEOCSA and DEORSA respectively, and % for EEGSA of the 2009 s energy. In general, the Energy consumption by distribution companies ranged from 3,760.5 to 4, GWh from 1997 to 2009, increasing 24.37%. The steady demand of distribution companies has changed since 2002 to 2010, from 217 to 316 MW for DEOCSA, from 148 to 216 MW for DEORSA and from 551to 594 MW for EEGSA; representing a growth of 31.33%, 31.48% and 7.24% for DEOCSA, DEORSA and EEGSA respectively, taking the 2009 as base year.
30 In general, the power consumption by them ranged from 916 to 1,126 MW in the period , increasing 18.65% Figure 1-11 Historic of Energy consumed by distribution companies Figure 1-12 Historic of steady demand by distribution companies
31 DEMAND MARGINAL COST TO SHORT-TERM (SPOT PRICE) The behavior of marginal cost for the demand to short-term in the last twelve years is shown in the figure below: Figure 1-13 SPOT behavior
32 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) The figures 1-13 and 1-14 show the relationship between energy demand variation and power demand variation (over the previous year) against GDP growth, both for the period Figure 1-14 Variation of energy demand vs. GDP viii
33 Figure 1-15 Variation of power demand vs. GDP
34 LOAD CURVE In the following figures you can appreciate the variation of the hourly load curve for the period Figure 1-16 Hourly load curve, period Figure 1-17 Hourly load curve, period
35 CAPÍTULO 2 STUDY PREMISES To prepare this study, the National Commission of Electric Power took into consideration the following conditions: DEMAND The development of two scenarios for electricity demand growth is modeling by an econometric model which takes into account GDP and the number of electric power users as independent variables. Such model assumes a logistic relationship between energy demand and GDP, and a linear-exponential relationship between energy demand and the number of users. The following table shows the GDP data used to determinate de growth demand scenarios: Tabla 2-1 GDP growth rates (%) according to scenario demand Year Medium High
36 Source: Own elaboration, based in national and international publications of financial entities. The projections for energy and power demand growth for the study period are shown in the table below, for each were identified two scenarios. Table 2-2 Demand scenarios Year Energy demand (GWh) Power Demand (MW) Scenario 1 (Medium) Scenario 2 (High) Scenario 1(Medium) Scenario 2 (High) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Figure 2-1 Energy and power demand scenarios
37 FUELS The initial values for fuel prices are shown in table 2-3. The cost s forecast was made from initial values, applying the tendency variation of the price of each fuel estimated by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for carbon, bunker and diesel. Table 2-3 Initial Price of fuels Fuel type Price (US$ per MWh) Coal Bunker Diesel Bagasse Geothermal 1.00 Figure 2-2 Projection of fuels during the period ix
38 Source: EIA (Coal, Report # :DOE/EIA-0383(2010); Liquid fuels, Report # :DOE/EIA-0484(2009)) NEW GENERATING PLANTS The Guatemala-Mexico Interconnection (400kV) was considered with an initial capacity of 120MW and at the end of the construction of PET works of 200MW, and was estimated that its variable cost is less than cost of internal combustion engines based on bunker, but higher than cost of base fuel plants (coal). The parameters used to model the hydroelectric power stations: Xacbal, San Cristobal, Santa Teresa, El Manantial, El Cóbano and Palo Viejo, and the geothermal power stations: Duke, Esi and Jaguar were obtained from access studies to transmission system, information submitted by developers projects and the respective resolutions of approval. Table 2-4 New power plants Start-up Project Power (MW) Jun-10 Duke fase 1 40
39 Jul-10 Hydroelectric Xacbal 94 Ago-10 Hydroelectric Santa Teresa 19.6 Jan-11 Duke fase 2 40 Jun-11 Hydroelectric El Manantial 35 Dec-11 Hydroelectric El Cóbano 7 Jun-12 Hydroelectric Palo Viejo 80 Nov-12 Esi 80 May-13 Jaguar 275 Jun-13 Hydroelectric San Cristóbal 10 Ago-13 Mexico Interconnection 80 3 Total SIMULATED CASES To simulate the cases, was taken into account different scenarios of demand, hydrology and fuels prices trends, likewise was taken into account the start-up operation of the new projects. i. For cases 1 and 2 is considered medium demand and a combination of fuel price scenarios (reference and high), taking the 2003 as hydrology base year, as well the start-up of the plants listed in the table above. ii. For cases 3 and 4 is considered high demand and a combination of fuel price scenarios (reference and high), taking the 2003 as hydrology base year, as well the start-up of the plants listed in the table above. HYDROLOGY 3 The Guatemala Mexico interconnection capacity represents an increase from 120 MW available to 200 MW.
40 The information of flows for the study development were obtained from the data base that National Electric Power Commission used to carry out the Indicative Expansion Plan of the Generation System , and it was complemented with additional information provided by the National Institute of Electrification and the Wholesale Market Administrator. The hydroelectric power stations Xacbal and Palo Viejo were modeled as daily regulation centrals because it had technical data to model it this way and hydroelectric power stations San Cristobal, Santa Teresa, El Manantial and El Cobano were modeled as passing centrals. For the development of the different scenarios was considered the 2003 as a basis for hydrological simulation.
41 CAPÍTULO 3 STUDY RESULTS
42 CASE 1 DEMAND TYPE FUEL TREND Medium Reference By May 2013 when the coal plant Jaguar start-up is estimated that coal generation will increase from 16.3% in 2010 to 40.8% in 2015, because of this, generation with bunker is reduced from 14.8% to 0.6%. It is estimated that the energy dispatch of bunker will be approximately GWh in The average of demand marginal cost in these conditions will be approximately $ per MWh. In these circumstances the probable deficit is zero.
43 Figure 3-1 Energy matrix, 2010 and 2015, case 1 Figure 3-2 Energy dispatch, case 1
44 Figure 3-3 Available power-demand, case 1
46 Figure 3-4 Demand marginal cost, case 1
47 CASE 2
48 DEMAND TYPE FUEL TREND Medium High By May 2013 when the coal plant Jaguar start-up is estimated that coal generation will increase from 16.2% in 2010 to 41.0% in 2015, because of this, generation with bunker is reduced from 14.8% to 0.6%. It is estimated that the energy dispatch of bunker will be approximately GWh in The average of demand marginal cost in these conditions will be approximately $ per MWh. In these circumstances the probable deficit is zero. Figure 3-5 Energy Matrix, 2010 and 2015, case 2
49 Figure 3-6 Energy dispatch, case 2
50 Figure 3-7 Available power-demand, case 2
52 Figure 3-8 Demand marginal cost, case 2
54 CASE 3 DEMAND TYPE FUEL TREND High Reference By May 2013 when the coal plant Jaguar start-up is estimated that coal generation will increase from 15.9% in 2010 to 41.0% in 2015, because of this, generation with bunker is reduced from 17.0% to 1.3%. It is estimated that the energy dispatch of bunker will be approximately GWh in The average of demand marginal cost in these conditions will be approximately $ per MWh. In these circumstances the probable deficit is zero. Figure 3-9 Energy Matrix, 2010 and 2015, case 3
55 Figure 3-10 Energy dispatch, case 3
56 Figure 3-11 Available power-demand, case 3
57 Figure 3-12 Demand marginal cost, case 3
58 CASE 4
59 DEMAND TYPE FUEL TREND High High By May 2013 when the coal plant Jaguar start-up is estimated that coal generation will increase from 15.9% in 2010 to 40.8% in 2015, because of this, generation with bunker is reduced from 17.0% to 1.2%. It is estimated that the energy dispatch of bunker will be approximately GWh in The average of demand marginal cost in these conditions will be approximately $ per MWh. In these circumstances the probable deficit is zero. Figure 3-13 Energy Matrix, 2010 and 2015, case 4
60 Figure 3-14 Energy dispatch, case 4
61 Figure 3-15 Available power-demand, case 4
62 Figure 3-16 Demand marginal cost, case 4
63 CASE 5 DEMAND TYPE FUEL TREND Medium Reference This case considers the start-up of a 50MW geothermal power station from April 2014, further considered the start-up of a block of 50 MW of renewable distributed generation in blocks of 20MW by April 2013, 20MW by April 2014 and 10MW by April These power generation plants based on renewable resources eliminate the price volatility in the transition (May and June) of dry season to wet season. Figure 3-17 Energy Matrix, 2010 and 2015, case 5
64 Figure 3-18 Energy dispatch, case 5
65 Figure 3-19 Available power-demand, case 5
66 Figure 3-20 Demand marginal cost, case 5
68 NODAL LOSSES In the Guatemalan Electricity Market, the procedure to model and determine the economic value of losses in the transmission system is through the establishment of a losses factor in every single node of the National Interconnected System, whereby the electric power is valued in each network connection respect to a reference node. The value of the energy transferred to one node will be the energy price in the market affected by the nodal losses factor. The nodal losses factor of energy according to Commercial Coordination Standard # 7, is set with a reference node (Guatemala-Sur-230kV) as the relationship between marginal cost of both nodes, when in that node the marginal cost incorporates transmissions marginal losses to the reference node. In this study we determined the approximate nodal losses factors for case 1, in which new generation plants are expected to be installed in the future or in the nodes that represent a very important role in the National Interconnected System. The calculation in this analysis considers the works of the Expansion Plan of the Transmission System in commercial operation, so these factors can t be considered definitive because the values in addition to the topology of the network depend on the seasonality, daily economic dispatch of load and demand in the SNI. The nodal losses factors of the existing load bars 69kV tend to get better this means a drastic reduction of network losses, resulting in a benefit for users of electrical service. The nodal losses factors of the nodes considered in of the Expansion Plan of the Transmission System tend to vary in values close to one, due to the seasonality between wet and dry seasons, which could result in a benefit for the centrals that will be connected in the future. The nodal losses factors of the existing load bars 230kV tend to get better this means a drastic reduction of network losses, resulting also in a benefit for users of electrical service.
73 CONCLUSIONS I. The growth rate of energy and power demand shows a direct relationship to the national Gross Domestic Product, from 2009 we can note a recovery, however natural phenomena may affect recovery. II. On average, there is an increase from 16% to 41%, from 2010 to 2015 in generation with base fuel. The start-up of Jaguar in May 2013 significantly reduced the generation with bunker, this decrease will depend on demand conditions, hydrology and fuel costs. III. To ensure safety and reliability of electricity supply is necessary that new generation plants considered in this study provide the energy needed to satisfy demand at minimum cost. IV. The demand marginal cost (SPOT price) tends to decrease from the start-up of hydroelectric power stations and base fuel plants, from 2015 is being necessary the start-up of new generation plants to stabilize in the long-term the trend of marginal cost. Due to this reduction in SPOT price is necessary that generation plants have contracts that guarantee their investment return. V. In order to eliminate volatility of SPOT price in the transition from dry to wet season and to assure greater stability of that price after 2015 is convenient encourage the start-up of distributed renewable generation and a geothermal plant. VI. In all cases we notice that renewable energy generation is over 50%.
74 Year Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case (%) (%) VII. Most of the nodal losses factors on the existing nodes of 69kV and 230kV tend to get better, resulting into a benefit for users of electrical service because a drastic reduction of network losses. The nodal losses factors of the nodes in the Expansion Plan of the Transmission System tend to values close to 1, this will benefit the plants that will be connected to these nodes in the future.
75 BIBLIOGRAPHY 1. Wholesale Market Administrator, 2009 Statistical Report, Coordination Standards 2. National Commission of Electric Power, Indicative Expansion Plan of the Generation System Expansion Plan of the Transmission System
76 ANEX A ACRONYMS AMM CNEE EIA ETCEE INDE MEM Administrador del Mercado Mayorista (Wholesale Market Administrator). Comisión Nacional de Energía Eléctrica (National Commission of Electric Power). Energy Information Administration. Empresa de Transporte y Control de Energía Eléctrica. Instituto Nacional de Electrificación. Ministerio de Energía y Minas (Ministry of Energy and Mines).
77 TRELEC TRECSA EEGSA DEORSA DEOCSA Transportista Eléctrica Centroamericana. Transportadora de Energía de Centroamérica, S.A. Empresa Eléctrica de Guatemala, S.A. Distribuidora de Electricidad de Oriente, S.A. Distribuidora de Electricidad de Occidente, S.A. MEASURING UNITS GWh kv MVA MW MWh US$ Giga watts hour Kilovolt Mega volt-ampere Mega watt Mega watt hour USA Dollars MULTIPLES Prefix Symbol Factor Kilo k 1,000 Mega M 1,000,000 Giga G 1,000,000,000 Tera T 1,000,000,000,000 ANEX B REFERENCES
78 i Wholesale Market Administrator, Solid demand, ii Wholesale Market Administrator, Solid Offer and Efficient Solid Offer, iii Ministry of Energy and Mines, Electricity Subsector, Energy Statistics Report , iv TRELEC, Corporate Information, Unión Fenosa, the company, high voltage lines, v National Commission of Electric Power, Expansion Plan of the Transmission System vi vii Wholesale Market Administrator, 2009 Statistical Report, Wholesale Market Administrator, Statistical Reports viii Banco de Guatemala, Gross Domestic Product -GDP-, 2001 Base and 1958 Base, Years: (Variation Rate), ix Energy Information Administration (EIA), AEO2009 National Energy Modeling System, 2009,
Development of New Infrastructure and Integration of New Technologies in Guatemala s Electricity Sector: Practical Lessons Learned by a Regulator in a Developing Country Carlos Colom Guatemala, October
Photovoltaic in Mexico Recent Developments and Future Rodolfo Martínez Strevel Berlin, Germany May 23th, 2013 Bufete de Tecnología Solar, S.A. (BUTECSA) Production of Primary Energy in Mexico, 2011 % 7,0
Colombia: a country with energy diversity Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores República de Colombia As reflected in President Juan Manuel Santos National Development Plan, Colombia's energy industry, in
The Brazilian Electricity Model: An Overview of the Current Structure and Market Design Élbia Melo 1, Evelina Maria de Almeida Neves 2, Luiz Henrique Alves Pazzini 3 Câmara de Comercialização de Energia
Renewable Energy Strategy for 2020 and Regulatory Framework Eng. Hatem Amer Egyptian Electric Regulatory and Consumer Protection Agency Objectives of the Agency Regulate, supervise, and control all matters
Volume 2 A BidURenergy White Paper Unlocking Electricity Prices: A White Paper Exploring Price Determinants by: Mark Bookhagen, CEP pg. 2 Written by Mark Bookhagen, CEP Introduction In order to be classified
National Energy Commission i Republic of Honduras Legal Framework for Renewable Energy in Honduras and Prospects for Development MIGUEL ÁNGEL FIGUEROA RIVERA - National Energy Commission (NEC) - de Energía
The Chilean Energy Regulatory Framework Comisión Nacional de Energía Andrés Romero Secretario Ejecutivo Comisión Nacional de Energía Intro The Chilean electric industry is divided in 3 segments Generation
Glossary of Energy Terms Know Your Power 2012 Towards a Participatory Approach for Sustainable Power Development in the Mekong Region List of terms Terms Page Terms Page Avoided cost 10 Installed capacity
LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY LAW No. 45 (Of August 4, 2004) That establishes a regime of incentives for the promotion of hydroelectric generation systems and other new, renewable and clean resources, and other
NOVEMBER 2011 Observatory of Renewable Energy in Latin America and The Caribbean NICARAGUA Final Report Component 1: Renewable Technological Base Line Component 2: State of Art C http://4.bp.blogspot.com/
Promoting the Cross-Border Renewable Energy Market Meeting report: Creating a Regional Renewable Market in the Californias Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Washington, DC January 25, 2010
Power System review W I L L I A M V. T O R R E A P R I L 1 0, 2 0 1 3 Basics of Power systems Network topology Transmission and Distribution Load and Resource Balance Economic Dispatch Steady State System
Energy Trading Jonas Abrahamsson Senior Vice President Trading E.ON Capital Market Day Nordic Stockholm, July 3, 2006 Agenda The Nordic Power Market The Role of Energy Trading within E.ON Nordic Page 2
Japanese ODA Loan Ex-Ante Evaluation (for Japanese ODA Loan) 1. Name of the Project Country: The Republic of the Union of Myanmar Project: Urgent Rehabilitation and Upgrade Project Phase I Loan Agreement:
Geothermal Development in Country Edwin Rodas Solares/MEM Página 1 General Information Size: 108,889 square kilometers (Km2) Climate: Tropical Inhabitants: 14.4 million PIB/ head: 7.400USD Economic data:
(NEM) operates on one of the world s longest interconnected power systems, stretching from Port Douglas in Queensland to Port Lincoln in South Australia and across the Bass Strait to Tasmania a distance
AORC Technical meeting 2014 http : //www.cigre.org C5-1050 Tariff Analysis for Integration of Renewable Energy Sources to the National Grid MISS SUPANIDA WONGSOMBOON Electricity Generating Authority of
Client Alert Latin America Energy Finance October 27, 2014 Mexico s Guidelines for Clean Energy Certificates Will Support Renewable Energy Development By Michael S. Hindus, Eric Save and John B. McNeece
Luis Atienza Chairman & Chief Executive Officer April, 3rd 2009 Index Present Spanish energy outline The Spanish electricity sector Wind power in Spain today Cornerstones of the Spanish leadership in wind
Committee on the Northern Territory s Energy Future Electricity Pricing Options Submission from Power and Water Corporation October 2014 Power and Water Corporation 1. INTRODUCTION On 21 August 2014, the
Electricity Rates Forecasting: Muskrat Falls Will Options: Stabilize Rates for Consumers Legal S92A, Good Faith and Regulatory Proceedings in Quebec Department of Natural Resources October 2012 Department
Electricity Pricing and Marginal Cost Analysis Learn practical tools to analyse a host of issues in electricity analysis including efficient tools to work with supply and demand data; creating flexible
Power System Expansion and Efficiency Improvement Investment Program (RRP BAN 42378) A. Tariff Assessment 1. Introduction TARIFF AND GOVERNANCE ASSESSMENT 1. Electricity tariffs in Bangladesh are unbundled
RICHARD: Welcome to the third quarter 2013 Endesa Colombia results conference call. My name is Richard and I will be your operator for today s call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode.
Overview of the Electricity Sector in Egypt Milan 22-23 October - 2 nd Capacity building Reporting methodologies: how to collect data and monitor regulated entities Salma Hussien Osman Egypt ERA www.egyptera.org
Australia has one of the world s longest alternating current (AC) systems, stretching from Port Douglas in Queensland to Port Lincoln in South Australia and across the Bass Strait to Tasmania a distance
The insertion of renewables into the Chilean electricity market Sebastian Mocarquer, Member IEEE, Hugh Rudnick, Fellow IEEE 1 Abstract- The Chilean electricity regulation introduced in 2008 an obligation
Mongolian power sector: Background and current policy Kh.Erdenechuluun Representing UBEDN, Mongolia BRIEFLY ABOUT MONGOLIA Territory: 1.564 million km 2 Population: 2.7 million Capital city: Ulaanbaatar
Conference on Integrating Variable Renewable Energy into Power Grids, Chile-CNE Iván Saavedra Dote Electrical Department Chief Comisión Nacional de Energía-CNE, Ministry of Energy, Chile. Table of Contents
TANZANIA ELECTRIC SUPPLY COMPANY LTD (TANESCO) PRESENTATION ON THE TANZANIAN SOLAR PV-HYBRID WORKSHOP HELD IN BERLIN, GERMANY 16 TH MARCH 2015 by Eng. Patrice Tsakhara Principal Engineer Small Power Projects
Central termoeléctrica Zona Franca Celsia- Barranquilla, Atlántico Conference call 2Q 1S 2014 July 23rd 2014 www.celsia.com Disclaimer This document has been prepared by Celsia S.A. E.S.P. (the Company
Sustainable and Renewable Energy Development Authority (SREDA) of Bangladesh Role and Responsibility Welcome to SREDA Siddique Zobair Member (EE & C) Sustainable & Renewable Energy Development Authority
1 AES GENER HIGHLIGHTS 2 Highlights 2013 VENTANAS IV Start-up of commercial operations in March 2013 COCHRANE PROJECT Financial close and start of construction in March 2013 CAPITAL INCREASE Shareholders
Expression of Interest to participate in the financing of the Scaling-up Renewable Energy Program (SREP) in Low Income Countries Climate Investment Funds I. COUNTRY AND GOVERNMENT AGENCY SUBMITTING EXPRESSION
WIND AND SOLAR ENERGY DEVELOPMENTS IN IRAN H. Kazemi Karegar a,b, A.Zahedi a,v. Ohis a, G. taleghani b and M. Khalaji b a Department of Electrical & Computer Systems Engineering, PO Box 35, Monash University,
Levelized costs for nuclear, gas and coal for Electricity, under the Mexican scenario. Javier C. Palacios, Gustavo Alonso, Ramón Ramírez, Armando Gómez, Javier Ortiz, Luis C. Longoria. Instituto Nacional
RESPONSE TO PUB ORDER 117/06 PUB Order 117/06 Directive 6 6. Manitoba Hydro shall file a General Rate Application for the fiscal years 2007/08 and 2008/09 by no later than August 1, 2007 which shall include
Power Tariff Structure in Thailand 23 October 2012, Singapore Dr. Pallapa Ruangrong Energy Regulatory Commission of Thailand Singapore EAS ABOUT THAILAND Population 67 Million Customers (at end-2011) 19
Energy Chilean Market Current Situation & Expected Evolution SONAMI, December 214 Installed Capacity 213 Maximum Demand 213 SING XV Arica y Parinacota I Tarapacá II Antofagasta 3.93 2.243 SIC III Atacama
PDP2015 Thailand Power Development Plan 2015-2036 (PDP2015) Energy Policy and Planning Office June 30, 2015 PDP2015 Thailand Power Development Plan 2015-2036 (PDP2015) Endorsed by the National Energy Policy
21, rue d Artois, F-75008 PARIS C5-103 CIGRE 2012 http : //www.cigre.org Integrating Renewable Energy into the Chilean Grid J.C. ARANEDA - R. VALPUESTA Transelec S.A. Chile SUMMARY The Chilean Electricity
SPANISH EXPERIENCE IN RENEWABLE ENERGY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY Anton Garcia Diaz Economic Bureau of the Prime Minister «Symposium on Strengthening Sino-Spain cooperation in multiple Fields» New Energy Cooperation
MEXICAN ENERGY REFORMS JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY School of Advanced International Studies Dr. Francisco Barnés de Castro Comisión Reguladora de Energía Abril 29, 2014 1. Brief history of the energy industry
The Prospects for Small Hydropower in Mexico Jorge M Huacuz Non-Conventional Energy Unit Electrical Research Institute Cuernavaca, Mexico Who can produce electricity in Mexico? Export 2.2 CFE, the National
A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF MARKET BEHAVIORS IN A FUTURE SOUTH AFRICAN ELECTRICITY MARKET J. Yan* J. Sousa**, and J. Lagarto** * Electrical Engineering Department, University of Cape Town, Private bag, Rondebosch
Pakistan Study to Determine the Limit of Integrating Intermittent Renewable (wind and solar) Resources onto Pakistan's National Grid Final Report: Executive Summary - November 2015 for USAID Energy Policy
Methodology for Merit Order Dispatch Version 1.0 25 th April 2011 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. OBJECTIVES... 1 2. ROADMAP FOR IMPLEMENTATION... 1 3. DEFINITIONS... 3 4. OPERATIONS PLANNING... 3 4.1. General Considerations...
Hydroelectric Power Plant - Los Cóndores Santiago, April 2014 Introduction Los Cóndores, a large hydro project of 150 MW with water flow regulation using the existing water reservoir of the Embalse Laguna
Energex Statement of expected price trends 1 July 2014 to 30 June 2015-1- 2014/15 Statement of expected price trends Version control Version Date Description 1.0 16 June 2013 Published on Energex s website
COMITÉ EMPRESARIAL CHILE-JAPON THE POWER MARKET IN CHILE WHAT IS GOING ON? SANTIAGO-CHILE APRIL 2009 CONTENT Overview of the Energy Sector Energy matrix Energy policy The Electricity Sector: regulatory
Republic of Zambia OPPORTUNITIES IN THE ENERGY SECTOR IN ZAMBIA Presentation Outline COUNTRY PROFILE KEY POWER SECTOR PLAYERS OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SECTOR IN ZAMBIA ZAMBIA ENERGY SITUATION PRESENTLY RESULT
Current International Perspectives on Smart Grid Developments in Mexico in Light of Energy Reforms Opportunities and Challenges Presented to: Austin Electricity Conference UT Executive Education and Conference
Australian Remote Renewables: Opportunities for Investment The largely untapped remote clean energy market and funding support available from the Australian Government creates an attractive opportunity
Country Partnership Strategy: Kazakhstan 2012 2016 SECTOR ASSESSMENT (SUMMARY): ENERGY 1 Sector Road Map 1. Sector Performance, Problems, and Opportunities 1. Overview. Oil accounts for about a quarter
Selling Renewable Energy in Michigan Julie Baldwin Michigan Public Service Commission Michigan Wind Conference 2009 March 3, 2009 Michigan Public Service Commission Three Governor-appointed Commissioners
D ENERGY INDICATORS Energy is a broad input into human settlements and activities. It is strongly linked to a nation s GDP. Energy indicators provide a measure of efficiency and sustainability in production
Ontario Energy Report Q4 Electricity October December Electricity Supply Electricity production was lower in Q4 than in previous years, with milder than normal weather in October and December resulting
CONFÉRENCE DES NATIONS UNIES SUR LE COMMERCE ET LE DÉVELOPPEMENT UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT Multi-Year Expert Meeting on Services, Development and Trade: The Regulatory and Institutional
Reliability Improvements in Latin America for the 21st Century i-pcgrid Workshop 2013 Innovations in Protection & Control for Greater Reliability Infrastructure Development Outline Description of the Colombian
The Philippines Leyte-Bohol Interconnection Project External Evaluator: Toshiyuki Katagiri, Tomomi Ito (The Japan Economic Research Institute) Field Survey: November 2006, February 2007 1. Project Profile
The Status of the Wind Power Market in Egypt Dr. Walid El-Khattam Ain Shams University (Cairo, Egypt) The Egyptian Electricity Regulator (EgyptERA) Berlin, June 11 th, 2013 1 Contents Key Challenges for
For Columbia University New York, NY By Adam Sieminski U.S. Energy Information Administration U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov Key results from (AEO215)
Off-grid Hybrid Solar: Market Overview, Business Case & Technical Considerations Craig Chambers AECOM Australia Pty Ltd of 420 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 Australia Keywords : Solar PV, sustainability,
IAEA-CN-164-2S07 Alternatives of Financing for New Nuclear Reactors in Mexico Gustavo Alonso, Javier C. Palacios, Jose R. Ramirez, Luis C. Longoria, Edmundo del Valle* Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones
国 家 发 展 和 改 革 委 员 会 能 源 研 究 所 Energy Research Institute National Development and Reform Commission CHINA 2050 HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION SCENARIO AND RODAMAP STUDY CHINA NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY
9M10 Results Presentation November 5th, 2010 9M10: Highlights of the period EBITDA: 2,651m, +9% YoY EBITDA from Brazil: +28% YoY: 19% of EDP Group EBITDA in 9M10 Electricity distributed +15% YoY EBITDA
Port Jackson Partners NOT JUST A CARBON HIT ON ELECTRICITY PRICES Many factors will drive a doubling of electricity prices in many states by 15. This will have a major impact on virtually all businesses.
Oliver Frank Germany's renewable energy sector in the context of energy transition. May 11 th, Hong Kong 1 Agenda. About dena Energy transition / main trends in the German energy sector Renewable Energies
page 1 CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM PROJECT DESIGN DOCUMENT FORM (CDM-PDD) Version 03 - in effect as of: 28 July 2006 CONTENTS A. General description of project activity B. Application of a baseline and
GEORGIAN LAW ON ELECTRICITY AND NATURAL GAS CHAPTER 1. GENERAL PROVISIONS Article 1. Objectives and Purposes of the Law 1. This law shall regulate relations and activities of Sole entrepreneurs, Physical
SEMINÁRIO REDES ENERGÉTICAS DO FUTURO: desafios para a Macaronésia Ribeira Grande, 13 de Dezembro de 2011 USE OF GEOTHERMAL RESOURCES IN THE AZORES ISLANDS: A CONTRIBUTION TO THE ENERGY SELF-SUFFICIENCY
1 Natural Gas and Electricity Coordination Experiences and Challenges Challenges Facing the New England Power System Gordon van Welie, President and CEO, ISO New England 2015 IEEE Power & Energy Society