Mexican Energy Reform. Implications and opportunities in the national electricity network

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1 Mexican Energy Reform Implications and opportunities in the national electricity network

2

3 Contents 1. What are the implications of the reform? 4 2. How can we help you identify opportunities and obtain benefits from the Reform? 13

4 1. What are the implications of the reform? Overall context The reforms approved have a positive impact on the general activities of the national electrical system, offering new opportunities for investors and consumers and transforming the CFE into a state- owned productive business The reforms made to articles 25, 27, and 28 of the Political Constitution of Mexico, and the transitory articles recently approved by the Mexican Congress have a significant impact on the National Electricity System (SEN) as a whole (hereafter the Reform). This Reform will strengthen competitiveness in the generation of power, accelerate the expansion of transmission networks, improve distribution supply quality, and offer the end consumer a wider range of opportunities to meet their consumption needs at more competitive prices. Likewise, the Reform will drive the leverage of natural gas in the generation of electric power through the expansion and reinforcement of the gas pipeline network. Additionally, it will contribute to attaining the objectives of non-fossil fuel participation in the energy matrix. This new paradigm offers the private sector the opportunity to participate in the electricity sector more actively, from investments in generation, transmission and distribution activities, to leveraging the opportunities that a more competitive approach will offer to electric power users. Furthermore, the Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) will become a productive state business. Following you will find a brief description of the key elements of the current context of every activity of the electricity sector, what the Reform sets out for this sector and its possible implications. It is important to highlight that, as the Reform states, in the following months, the secondary laws of the electricity sector will be defined in order to begin the implementation of the Reform, which will include the execution of the transformation measures of the key bodies of the sector. Reforma energética de México Página 4 Implicaciones y oportunidades en el sistema eléctrico nacional

5 Context Currently, the SENER is in charge of the planning of the network, and the CFE operates it and performs the power generation, transmission and distribution activities within the public sector The current Electric Power Public Utility Law and its regulations state that the Ministry of Energy (SENER) is in charge of planning the Electricity Sector. Therefore, the CFE elaborates a proposal that must be approved by this ministry. When the construction of new generation facilities is required, the CFE notifies the SENER of the characteristics of the projects, based on costs and the comparable environmental, technological and reliability criteria. Then, the ministry determines if the CFE undertakes the corresponding actions or if it hires a private vendor.1 Furthermore, the control and distribution of power corresponds to the CFE, through the National Centre of Energy Control (CENACE), a departmental division of the Operations Division. The Reform states that The Reform provides for the decentralisation of the National Centre of Energy Control as an independent operator of the network The Nation is responsible for planning and controlling the SEN (Art 25, 27, and 28). The CENACE will be a decentralised public body in charge of: The operative control of the SEN; operating the wholesale electricity market; managing the open/nondiscriminatory access to the national transmission network and the general distribution networks, as well as other functions that will be defined in the following months (Transitory 16º) The CFE will transfer the resources required by the CENACE in order to fulfil its capabilities. Once the CENACE is created as a decentralised public utility-, it will support the CFE for a maximum of 12 months to continue operating its networks effectively. (T-16º) 1 Art. 36Bis Electric Power Public Utility Law Mexican Energy Reform Page 5

6 Potential implications Based on international experiences, the independence and competitiveness of the system will be enhanced, especially its ability to interconnect its new projects, as well as the creation of a wholesale energy market. The separation of the CFE network s operating body will favour transparency and competitiveness, enabling greater competitiveness in the network s generation and access to it. Specifically, this measure will simplify the identification of some points of the network available to interconnect new generation plants, which will have a potential impact on the market dynamics. Furthermore, managing a wholesale electricity market through an independent operator of the network drives competitiveness through the best technologies. Mexican Energy Reform Page 6

7 The new generation capability should increase by more than 55,000 MW (65% of the total) to meet the electric power demand of over the next 15 years. This requires a significant investment through an extensive technology matrix Context By the end of 2012, the SEN had approximately 61,000 MW in operation, approximately 53,000 (86%) of which corresponded to public utility and independent producers. The remaining 8,000 MW belonged to the self-supply and cogeneration modalities3. Currently, the main existing generation modalities are: CFE s own plants, independent and small producers that deliver their power to the CFE, and self-supply, cogeneration and exportation. A new capacity of 55,000 MW is expected to be needed over the next 15 years (including 11,800 MW of withdrawals), which is likely to represent more than 65% of the total installed capacity to date. Combined cycles would be the largest installed technology (>28,000 MW), followed by hydroelectric plants (>2,700 MW), and the development of a certain renewable capacity, especially wind power (>2,700 MW), in public utilities. The current regulatory framework establishes the objective of reaching 35% of electric power generation through non-fossil sources for 2024; the current percentage is approximately 20%, so an installation of between 10,000 20,000 non-fossil MW will be necessary by then, above the figures currently planned, in order to reach the desired goal. 3 Electric Sector Works and Investment Program (POISE), CFE Mexican Energy Reform Page 7

8 The Reform states that The Reform opens generation activities to the private sector. Clean energy development will be also promoted through obligations of industry stakeholders, and in the form of a transition strategy towards cleaner technologies and fuels. The Reform will imply increased competitiveness in electricpower generation and in the participation of the private sector, as well as greater flexibility in energy trading contracts between private parties Electric power generation is excluded from the public utility concept (Art 27). In addition, the Energy Regulatory Commission will be responsible for regulating and granting generation permits, as well as establishing transmission and distribution fees (T-10º). The law will assign clean energy and pollutant emissions reduction obligations to the industry (T-17º). It also states the Executive shall implement a transition strategy to promote the use of cleaner technologies and fuels (T-18º). A specific law for geothermal energy will be issued to regulate the proper leverage of this resource to generate electric power (T-18º). The Mexican Oil Fund for Stabilisation and Development, which will govern the receipt of all incomes, except taxes, belonging to the Mexican State, and derived from contracts for hydrocarbon exploration and extraction activities, will be authorized to invest in renewable energies, among others (T-14º). Potential implications A larger share of private investment in electric power generation, through the potential opening of the market and/or through bilateral contracts with consumers. A greater flexibility in bilateral energy trading contracts, with the current barriers of the self-supply model, especially in the addition or substitution of new consumer partners in operation projects. Continuous development of clean energies via minimum fees or green certificates to generating companies, which would contribute to reaching the goal of generating 35% of electric power via non-fossil sources. It would specifically imply a boost to geothermal energy, providing legal assurance to investment in the exploration and usage of this resource. Mexican Energy Reform Page 8

9 Context Mexico has an interconnected transmission system throughout the country, except for the isolated systems of Baja California and Baja California Sur. It has a core network (400kV kv), sub-transmission (161kV - 69kV) and distribution networks of medium (60kV kv) and low tension (between 240V - 220V). The transmission network, under the current planning, would increase its expansion by 17% over the next 10 years. The distribution network presents improvement opportunities, since there is a current loss of more than 18%, twice the OECD average Private citizens will be able to develop new transmission and distribution networks through contracts with the CFE Given the geographical characteristics and the location of the generation plants, the country presents a transmission-line density of 730 km/twh, almost four times larger than the USA, which implies higher costs in the expansion of the system. To date there are competitive renewable resources, which have not been connected or developed due to the lack of transmission networks. Therefore, some are being developed in several states with the purpose of connecting more than 5,000 MW, most of them aeolic. Regarding public utilities, a transmission network expansion of around17,000 km is expected (.an approximate 17% increase compared to the current length), a figure that should be higher given connectivity needs and the electricity demand of future years. As for distribution, the network suffers losses of more than 18%, twice the measure of the OECD (7%), due to technical and non-technical losses. The Reform states that The electric power transmission and distribution public utility corresponds to the Nation; there will be no concession in these activities (Art 25, 27 and 28). Private citizens will be able to finance, install, maintain, manage, operate, and extend, on behalf of the Nation, the necessary infrastructure to provide transmission and distribution services (T-11º). Mexican Energy Reform Page 9

10 Potential implications Transmission and distribution networks expansion programs will be reinforced, simplifying the interconnection of renewable capacity, and reducing energy losses in distribution networks Given the great need for new transmission lines, the CFE could implement PPP projects, in its different modalities, to develop new lines. This could drive the expansion of the system, as in the case of the roads and highways sector, through the Service Rendering Projects modality, among others, which allowed the increase and modernisation of the roads and highway network of Mexico, offering the best service to the users. It would especially simplify the interconnection of renewable energy projects through the development of the networks by a third party, whose compensation is linked to the energy transmitted, improving projects competitiveness by not having to consider them as an initial investment for this kind of infrastructure. As for the distribution activity, PPP or similar schemes will be allowed for the expansion of the distribution networks to new urban and industrial centres, as well as to invest in new technologies to enable the reduction of the network s losses. Mexican Energy Reform Page 10

11 Context Electricity tariffs forthe industrial and services sectors are, on average, above those of the countries of the region As for residential tariffs, most of them are subsidized through an ineffective and outdated scheme, which grants a higher subsidy (in absolute terms) to users with higher consumption rates. Private citizens will participate in electric power generation, which has implications in energy commercialisation The electric power public service has more than 40 different fees for consumers, based on their type and geographical location, and which are updated according to automatic adjustment factors, determined mainly by the Treasury and the opinion and input of SENER and CFE. The tariffs associated with the industry and services present average values above those of other countries of the region, and are almost twice the average of those in USA, causing a significant impact on the competitiveness of the Mexican productive sector. Residential tariffs, except those for the High Consumption Residential tariffs (c.2% of the total residential users), are subsidised. This subsidy is applied by kwh consumed, generating fluctuations in its application: 10% of the higher income population (who usually consume more energy) receive more than double the subsidy, per capita, than the 10% on a lower income.5 A consumer can choose self-supply when seeking more competitive electricity prices. To do so, he/she can decide to become a consumer partner in a remote self-supply project, or buy equipment (e.g. photovoltaic cells) for local self-supply. Both cases have attractive incentives for renewable energies and efficient cogeneration. The Reform states that As mentioned before, electric power generation is excluded from the public utility concept (Art 27). The Energy Regulatory Commission will regulate and grant generation permits, as well as transmission and distribution supply fees (10º), enabling the commercialization of the energy generated. 5 Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económica (CIDE), a partir de Encuestas de Ingresos y Gastos de los Hogares (2008) Mexican Energy Reform Page 11

12 Potential implications Consumers will have more options to choose how and who will be their energy supplier, which will increase competitiveness and generate a more dynamic market The CFE will no longer be the only electric power commercialising company, incentivising competition to obtain final users. A consumer who looks to meet consumption needs will be able to compare the tariffs offered by the CFE and other private generators. 7 Currently, the process to include a consumer partner in a self-supply project, when the generation permit has already been granted may take a long time, making it less attractive to both parties, and increasing the financial risks of the projects. The provisions of the Reform could imply a flexible adjustment in the inclusion of a consumer in a generation project, generating a more dynamic market. A review of the tariffs policy could imply an analysis strategy and the distribution of subsidies under a scheme that differs from the current one, for example, orienting the efforts towards specific groups (retirees, unemployed ) or urban centres with per capita incomes below defined limits, as implemented in other countries of the region. This, in turn, would reduce part of the economic load of the CFE, leveraging these resources more effectively. It would be convenient to analyse the optimum legal structure of the companies considering participation in this sector, as well as the tax effect and the corresponding optimization areas. 7 La demanda mínima (kw) exigidas para optar al mercado libre podría ser una de las variables a establecerse en la leyes secundarias Mexican Energy Reform Page 12

13 2. How can we help you identify opportunities and obtain benefits from the Reform? Some of the work performed: Collaboration with the Energy Ministry and sectorial Associations in the development of strategies to drive the renewable sector In the last few years, the Mexican electricity sector has become much more dynamic, and this situation will improve with the implementation of the Energy Reform in the electric power sector. In this context, PwC has supported the public and private sectors (producers and consumers) to develop strategies and financially structure projects to maximize opportunities, as well as legal and tax benefits in the sector. Participation in the financial structuration and/or review of the model of more than 1,500 MW of electric power capacity in Mexico Support in the diversification strategy of an industrial group to create an energy selling unit Advice to Asian and European developers to develop their strategy to enter the Mexican market Assessment of selfconsumption opportunities for a chemical company and a financial institution with more than 1,000 branches Mexican Energy Reform Page 13

14 Energy producers PwC helps international energy companies to enter the Mexican market and also national companies from other sectors that are looking to diversify by leveraging the opportunities of the new market: Market analysis and energy costs projection Entrance strategy, identification of market niches / Business plan Creation of new business units focused on the electricity sector Structuring of energy projects and review of financial models Consumers, investors and/or financing search Support to negotiate electricity trading contracts Commercial Due Diligence Analysis of the optimum corporate structure for the business strategy, considering the corresponding tax effects, and their optimisation. Implementation of the corporate structure. Energy consumers PwC helps industrial and service companies identify and assess generation projects (with or without capital share), for large consumers and medium-sized companies, whose electricity expenses imply an important percentage of its costs structureanálisis de oportunidades de consumo eléctrico con base en el perfil de la empresa. Electricity consumption opportunity analysis based on a company s profile Search and assessment of private generators offers Strategic plan of renewable energies and energetic efficiency Support in the negotiation of electricity trading contracts Energy projects structuring and financing search (if trying to invest in a plant) Tax and legal advice Mexican Energy Reform Page 14

15 Financial institutions and investment funds PwC helps the financial sector identify and assess opportunities in conventional technologies and in the renewable sector.análisis de mercado y proyección de precios de la energía. Market analysis and energy costs projection Strategy to enter the Mexican market /Business plan Purchasing opportunities search (Greenfield & Brownfield) Energy projects structuring Energy projects structuring and financial models review (including tax effects) Commercial Due Diligence Tax and legal advice Government Elaboration of state programs to promote renewable energies and energy effectiveness. Support to reduce electricity costs in public entities. Mexican Energy Reform Page 15

16 Contacts Guillermo Pineda Energy Leader +52 (55) Francisco Ibáñez Capital and infrastructure Projects Leader +52 (55) Irene Hernández Partner, Capital and Infrastructure Projects & Energy Corporate Taxes +52 (55) Juan Carlos Rojas +52 (55) Eduardo Reyes +52 (55) Marco Nieto +52 (55) Juan Santiago +52 (55) Antonio Martínez Dalmau Partner, Energy Strategy & Operations Mexican Energy Reform Page 16

17 2014 PricewaterhouseCoopers, S.C. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the Mexico member firm, and may sometimes refer to the PwC network. Each member firm is a separate legal entity. Please see for further details.. MPC: _PG_FollReformaEnergetica_Eng_FIC Reforma energética de México Página 17 Implicaciones y oportunidades en el sistema eléctrico nacional

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