Blue Energy: a new opportunity
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1 Blue Energy: a new opportunity Focus offshore wind energy Pieter Jan Jordaens, Oostende 28 november
2 Introduction Sirris Federation for the technology industry Collective centre of the Belgian technology industry Non-profit organisation Industry owned Mission: To help companies implement technological innovations
3 Introduction Sirris Antwerp Offshore Wind Infrastructure Application Lab Ghent Materials Engineering Materials Research Cluster Gent Leuven Mechatronics Technology Coaching Sirris Leuven Composites Application Lab Brussels Software Engineering & ICT Technology Coaching Hasselt Materials Engineering Production Technology Smart Coating Application Lab Liège Additive Manufacturing Materials Engineering Sirris Microfabrication Application Lab Charleroi Additive Manufacturing Bio-manufacturing platform
4 4 th Sirris Application Lab: OWI-Lab Sirris Leuven-Gent Composites Application Lab Sirris Smart Coating Application Lab Sirris Microfabrication Application Lab Offshore Wind Infrastructure Application Lab The Sirris Application labs focus on technological themes that will be crucial for the future of our companies in the coming years.
5 Offering OWI-Lab (Raw) DATA Test & Measurement services Test & Monitoring Infrastructure DATA (Processed) Information & insights Knowledge Design purpose (CAPEX) O&M purpose (OPEX) Higher energy yield
6 Drivers in wind energy Wind Energy: Onshore
7 Drivers in wind energy Algemene driver: bereiken van GRID PARITY LCOE = maatstaaf kosten gerelateerd aan productie elektriciteit uit wind energie exclusief subsidies etc... Hoe? LCOE reduceren CAPEX reductie OPEX reductie Verhoging energy yield Source: The Economics of Wind Energy, EWEA Report
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9 Drivers in wind energy Source: The Economics of Wind Energy, EWEA Report
10 Drivers in wind energy Source: The Economics of Wind Energy, EWEA Report
11 Wind Energy: Onshore LCOE in ONSHORE wind is laatste jaren enorm gedaald en zal nog verder dalen! Doelstelling = ±40-50 /MWh Verwacht: 12% extra reductie in LCOE de komende 5 jaar (Bloomberg New Energy Finance 2011) Sommige onshore wind farm zijn nu al concurrentieel met gascentrales als men CO2 kosten mee in rekening neemt. Afh. van de wind kwaliteit op de locatie
12 Wind Energy: Onshore LCOE 2012 Grid parity reached for average wind farm * ± 52 /MWh 120 /MWh Gem. LCOE UK = ±111 /MWh LCOE Gascentrale = ±46 /MWh (excl. CO2-kost) voor landen (of locaties) met gemiddelde wind condities Sources : The Crown Estate, IEA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance * Afh van olie & gasprijzen; locatie; CO2 taks,
13 ONSHORE VS OFFSHORE LCOE Offshore wind energy Challenges in offshore wind energy Offshore wind energy market Cost reduction pathways Technological evolution
14 Wind Energy: Onshore VS Offshore Onderdeel LCOE Investment cost (CAPEX) O&M cost (OPEX) Production ONSHORE VS OFFSHORE Hoger offshore Hoger offshore Hoger offshore DRIVER Niet economische driver: Offshore is er voldoende plaats Not in my backyard syndrome Hogere availability dan onshore omwille van goede wind condities 90% tot 97% availability Offshore is er continue sterke wind aanwezig (onshore niet zo) Meer productie mogelijk
15 LCOE Offshore Wind Energy LCOE 2012 LCOE 2020 (forecast) LCOE 2030 (forecast) OFFSHORE ± 173 /MWh 185 /MWh (2 x duurder dan onshore) ± 100 /MWh /MWh ± 86 /MWh 99 /MWh Grid parity reached for average wind farm * Na 2020 Sources : The Crown Estate, Bloomberg New Energy Finance * Afh van olie & gasprijzen; locatie; CO2 taks, Offshore wind power is an industry about 15 years behind onshore in terms of maturity innovation needed!
16 LCOE Offshore Wind Energy OFFSHORE CAPEX OFFSHORE OPEX OFFSHORE 25% - 30% of LCOE 44.8 /MWh 53.7 /MWh (gem.) ONSHORE: 1980: 50 /MWh 2011: 11 /MWh Source: ZF Wind Power Antwerp NV Inauguratin climate chamber Source: ECN, O&M Workshop Oostende Bloomberg New Energy Finanance
17 Challenges in offshore wind energy Remote location in combinatie met de moeilijke weersomstandigheden (Weather window) Transport & moeilijke toegang O&M teams duur onderhoud Weinig data beschikbaar voor optimalisatie + nog niet zoveel lessons learned Environmental loads & robustness of turbines (reliability) Wind belastingen Wave belasting Corrosie (zoute omgeving) Temperatuur & luchtvochtigheid Challenges = Opportunities
18 Offshore wind energy market Source : EWEA (June 2011) DRIVER! 2.8% YET ONLINE Begin 2012: 4 GW = ± 14.4 TWh / jaar 17.4 GW by GW by GW by 2030 EU MARKET FORECAST: The coming 4 years ±12 GW will be installed offshore, this is 3 times the amount of what has been realized over the last 20 years.
19 The impact of wind energy on jobs and economy in Europe and Belgium 40 % of Belgian wind energy jobs are related to offshore wind Source: Agoria
20 The impact of wind energy on jobs and economy in Europe and Belgium Source: Agoria
21 Cost reduction pathways Development & Design Installation O&M Decommissioning Improved reliability for turbines & components Advanced testing New standards New drivetrain topologies Improved efficiency through better siting of wind farms (resource assessment, advanced models, ) Bigger wind turbines (scale factor) & larger blades for more yield Multi-MW Weight reduction Better availability of vessels and crane ships New installation tools & concepts Advanced weather forecasting Dedicated offshore wind installation hubs close to sea Improved accessibility to turbine for O&M team Reduce downtime and increase energy production with decision support tools (OPEX cost modeling) and Improved monitoring technology for health diagnostics: CMS SHM Advanced weather forecasting Extend lifetime (health assessment) Retro-fits O&M service hubs with close access to wind farms Offshore wind farm life-cycle
22 Cost reduction pathways Development & Design Installation O&M Decommissioning CAPEX REDUCTION & OPEX REDUCTION & INCREASED ENERGY YIELD CAPEX REDUCTION OPEX REDUCTION & INCREASED ENERGY YIELD INCREASED ENERGY YIELD Offshore wind farm life-cycle
23 Technological evolution Degree of technological maturity and deployment of potential Previous technological evolution Performance index of the system reaches physical limits Technology completely understood. Research can be directed towards specific needs. Utilization becomes routine. New technology needed for further development (radical innovation) Aging phase Evolution of successive new technologies and industries (Industrial R&D) S-CURVE Technological life cycles Creation of new Technology with base performance ; new industry opportunity Infancy stage were major problems occur; opportunities for optimization & need for basic R&D TIME Fluid phase Growth phase Maturity phase
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25 Technological evolution
26 Technological evolution ONSHORE wind energy Degree of technological maturity and deployment of potential Previous technological evolution Performance index of the system reaches physical limits Technology completely understood. Research can be directed towards specific needs. Utilization becomes routine. New technology needed for further development (radical innovation) Aging phase Evolution of successive new technologies and industries (Industrial R&D) S-CURVE Technological life cycles Creation of new Technology with base performance ; new industry opportunity Infancy stage were major problems occur; opportunities for optimization & need for basic R&D TIME Fluid phase Growth phase Maturity phase
27 Technological evolution OFFSHORE wind energy Degree of technological maturity and deployment of potential Aging phase Onshore windturbine technology implemented offshore Creation of new Technology with base performance ; new industry opportunity TIME Fluid phase Growth phase Maturity phase
28 Technological evolution OFFSHORE wind energy Degree of technological maturity and deployment of potential Aging phase Creation of new Technology with base performance ; new industry opportunity Infancy stage were major problems occur; opportunities for optimization & need for basic R&D TIME Fluid phase Growth phase Maturity phase
29 Technological evolution OFFSHORE wind energy Degree of technological maturity and deployment of potential Aging phase Creation of new Technology with base performance ; new industry opportunity Infancy stage were major problems occur; opportunities for optimization & need for basic R&D TIME Fluid phase Growth phase Maturity phase
30 Technological evolution OFFSHORE wind energy Degree of technological maturity and deployment of potential New drivetrain topologies with servicability focus for offshore market Technology completely understood. Research can be directed towards specific needs. Utilization becomes routine. Aging phase Evolution of successive new technologies and industries (Industrial R&D) TIME Fluid phase Growth phase Maturity phase
31 Technological evolution OFFSHORE wind energy Others Bard 6.5 Mitsubishi 7 MW Medium speed Gamesa 4-5MW Areva M5000 Gamesa 6-7MW Vestas 8MW High speed Vestas V90, V112 Siemens REpower 5MW REpower 6MW REpower 7MW Siemens /120 Bard 5.0 Direct drive GE 4 MW Mervento 4,5MW Alstom, XEMC, Siemens 6 MW SWAY 10 MW AMSC 10 MW MW
32 Technological evolution OFFSHORE wind energy Degree of technological maturity and deployment of potential Dedicated offshore wind turbines with increase in MW capacity Technology completely understood. Research can be directed towards specific needs. Utilization becomes routine. Aging phase Evolution of successive new technologies and industries (Industrial R&D) TIME Fluid phase Growth phase Maturity phase
33 Technological evolution OFFSHORE wind energy Vestas, Siemens,Gamesa, Alstom, GE, Nordex, Repower, Areva, BARD, Daewoo, Dongfang, Doosan, Sinovel, 2-B Energy, Mitsubishi, Mervento, Goldwind, Guodian, Hitachi, Hyundai, Hyosung, Mingyang, Samsung, Shanghai Elec.,Toshiba, STX, WinWind, XEMC, Sany,
34 Technological evolution OFFSHORE wind energy
35 Technological evolution OFFSHORE wind energy Degree of technological maturity and deployment of potential Servicability focus Technology completely understood. Research can be directed towards specific needs. Utilization becomes routine. Aging phase Evolution of successive new technologies and industries (Industrial R&D) TIME Fluid phase Growth phase Maturity phase
36 Technological evolution OFFSHORE wind energy Degree of technological maturity and deployment of potential GRID-Connection Technology completely understood. Research can be directed towards specific needs. Utilization becomes routine. Aging phase Evolution of successive new technologies and industries (Industrial R&D) TIME Fluid phase Growth phase Maturity phase
37 Technological evolution Offshore Wind Energy (forecast) Degree of technological maturity and deployment of potential Performance index of the system reaches physical limits Aging phase TIME Fluid phase Growth phase Maturity phase
38 Technological evolution OFFSHORE wind energy Degree of technological maturity and deployment of potential New technology needed for further development (radical innovation) Aging phase Creation of new Technology with base performance ; new industry opportunity TIME Fluid phase Growth phase Maturity phase
39 Thank you for your attention! Need for more Group: Offshore Wind Infrastructure Application Lab (OWI-Lab) Pieter Jan Jordaens Project Leader Mobile: +32/
40 Growing industrial involvement Growing industrial involvement
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43 CASE 1: CONTINUOUS DYNAMIC MONITORING OF AN OFFSHORE WIND TURBINE ON A MONOPILE FOUNDATION O&M Advanced post-processing techniques for continuous dynamic monitoring of the structure (damping, frequency, ) DESIGN
44 O&M: % Failure rate of components Source: ReliaWind
45 O&M: % Downtime per component Source: ReliaWind
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