Sea Level Rise Planning to Outpace Rising Waters: Building Resilient Infrastructure
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1 Sea Level Rise Planning to Outpace Rising Waters: Building Resilient Infrastructure Humboldt County Public Works Hank Seemann, Deputy-Director 2015 CEAC Spring Conference March 26, 2015
2 Transportation Planning Context Global climate change alters frequency and intensity of natural hazards Sea level rise represents substantially increasing risks for coastal flooding, erosion, and rising groundwater Goal is resilience Just starting to integrate sea level rise considerations into plans and project development 2 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
3 Transportation Planning Context California milestone documents CA (2008) OPC (2010) NRC (2012) OPC (2013) CCC (2013) Executive Order S California Interim Sea Level Rise Guidance Document Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future Update of California Sea Level Rise Guidance Document Draft Coastal Commission sea-level rise policy guidance Federal Highways Administration - Guidance, pilot studies Humboldt Bay Sea Level Rise Adaptation Planning Group - Regional collaboration of public agency land managers and regulators - Funding by State Coastal Conservancy 3 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
4 Humboldt Bay Arcata North Spit Tide Gage Eureka 4 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
5 Humboldt Bay 5 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
6 Basic Methodology (CCSF, 2014) 1. Science Review 2. Vulnerability Assessment - Screening based on exposure, sensitivity, resilience 3. Risk Assessment - Analyze likelihood and consequence to identify priorities 4. Adaptation Planning 6 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
7 Part 1: Science Review 7 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
8 Regional Sea Level Rise Long term tide gage records on relatively geologic stable ground along U.S. West Coast For 20 th century, approx. 2 mm/yr (8 inches/century) Does not include vertical land motion 8 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
9 Relative Sea Level Rise 9 March 26, 2015
10 Relative Sea Level Rise Estimated historical rate over 100 years: 39 cm (15 inches) Local climate and ocean patterns Humboldt Bay Includes effects of vertical land motion 10 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
11 Sea Level Rise Projections for Humboldt Bay Region Rise 40 (Inches) Relative Sea Level Rise Low Projection Medium Projection High Projection Relative to Year 2000 Modified from regional sea level rise projections in NRC (2012) Vertical land motion of 2.55 mm/yr downward at North Spit gage Source: NHE (2015) Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
12 Part 2: Vulnerability Assessment 12 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
13 North Humboldt Bay 1870 US Coast and Geodetic Survey 13 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
14 North Humboldt Bay Railroad built Railroad 14 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
15 North Humboldt Bay Built Railroad 15 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
16 North Humboldt Bay SR 255 Railroad County Road SR Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
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19 Shoreline Inventory and Mapping Total length of shoreline: 102 miles (open bays and sloughs) Artificial: 75% Natural: 25% (41 miles) (26 miles) (10.5 miles) Dike Natural Railroad Source: (Laird, 2013) 19 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
20 Annual Maximum High Tides 10.5 North Spit Tide Gauge, feet 9 Water Level (feet NAVD88) Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
21 Extreme Storm Events Saturday, Dec. 31, :18 AM Predicted height: 8.1 feet Verified height: 9.55 feet 21 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
22 December 31, Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
23 December 31, Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
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27 Hydrodynamic Modeling Seamless topographic/bathymetric digital elevation model LiDAR plus various subtidal data sets Source: PWA (2014) 27 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
28 Hydrodynamic Modeling Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (USEPA) Configured as two-dimensional model (1,560 horizontal cells) Forced by 100-year stationary hourly sea level height series at ocean boundary Accounts for astronomical tides, storm surge, barometric pressure, ENSO/PDO Source: NHE (2015) 28 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
29 Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Modeling and Mapping Rise (Inches) m (79 inches) 1.5 m (59 inches) 1.0 m (39 inches) 0.5 m (20 inches) Source: NHE (2015) High Projection Medium Projection Low Projection Scenarios: 2012 and 0.5 meter increments relative to Year Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
30 Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Modeling and Mapping MHHW MMMW 16 MAMW 10-yr 100-yr Water Level (feet NAVD88) m SLR 1.0 m SLR Source: NHE (2015) 30 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
31 Sea Level Rise Inundation Vulnerability Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
32 Sea Level Rise Inundation Vulnerability Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
33 Sea Level Rise Inundation Vulnerability Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
34 Sea Level Rise Inundation Vulnerability 2012 Mean Monthly Maximum Water Level 34 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
35 Sea Level Rise Inundation Vulnerability 0.5 meters SLR Mean Monthly Maximum Water Level 35 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
36 Sea Level Rise Inundation Vulnerability 1.0 meters SLR Mean Monthly Maximum Water Level 36 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
37 Sea Level Rise Inundation Vulnerability 1.5 meters SLR Mean Monthly Maximum Water Level 37 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
38 Sea Level Rise Inundation Vulnerability 2.0 meters SLR Mean Monthly Maximum Water Level 38 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
39 Part 3: Risk Assessment 39 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
40 Source: GHD, 2014
41 Sea Level Rise Inundation Vulnerability Mean Monthly Maximum Water Level SR meters SLR Eureka-Arcata Connections: High exposure Railroad Limited redundancy County Road Dependence on railroad (but no investment or maintenance of railroad for >20 years) SR 101 Caltrans has major role High risk / high importance 41 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
42 Part 4: Adaptation Planning 42 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
43 Part 4: Adaptation Planning Basic Approaches: 1. Protect (Defend) - Hard/Soft structures 2. Accommodate - Elevate (fill or causeway), and/or enhance drainage 3. Re-locate (Planned retreat) 4. No action wait and see - Repair damage - Closure / forced retreat 43 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
44 Boat Launch Facility 44 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
45 Boat Launch Facility Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
46 Storm Damage Erosion of Road Embankment New Navy Base Road PM Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
47 Storm Damage Erosion of Road Embankment Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
48 Storm Damage Erosion of Road Embankment December 26, Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
49 Storm Damage Erosion of Road Embankment December 29, Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
50 Storm Damage Erosion of Road Embankment Applied traditional hardened structure as emergency response Permanent Coastal Development Permit still pending 50 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
51 Living Shoreline / Horizontal Levee 51 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
52 Living Shoreline / Horizontal Levee 52 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
53 Living Shoreline / Horizontal Levee Source: Alexander et al (2015) 53 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
54 Levee around Reclaimed Tidelands (1) Ground elevation: 6 feet Levee crest elevation: 11 to 12 feet County vehicle maintenance facility is one of 31 parcels No single levee owner/manager Challenges: feasibility, funding, permitting, administration County is leading collaboration to do technical studies, exploring use of county-wide flood control district 54 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
55 Levee around Reclaimed Tidelands (2) Breach in August 2014 at Humboldt Bay National Wildlife Refuge (White Slough, South Humboldt Bay) Flooded 50 acres intended for salt marsh restoration 55 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
56 Small Bridge Project Design for freeboard Design abutments to facilitate future bridge raising Limiting factor: approach roads Pine Hill Road 56 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
57 Major Corridor Projects SLR is key to permitting, facility longevity No prospect for planned retreat: must protect/accommodate Need to collaborate and take advantage of multi-benefit opportunities 57 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
58 Conclusion: Needs and Opportunities for Sea Level Rise Adaptation Solid technical basis with common targets Regional collaboration Communication and integration Multi-benefit projects Permitting flexibility Pilot projects Federal/state investment 58 Sea Level Rise - Building Resilient Infrastructure March 26, 2015
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