Numerical Weather Prediction Services > Wind Forecast

Transcription

1 > Wind Forecast Ankara, 5 th march, 2010 Weather forecast is no longer an empirical knowledge, actually, weather forecast is based in a numercial approach that takes advantage of atmospheric science, met station data, satellite images and automatic self- training. 1

2 Can we anticipate the future? Yes, with physical laws of the atmosphere: with initial conditions, we can predict future conditions. We need atmospheric data through a 3D grid: over the entire globe! 2

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5 NWP: it is a world wide tool. DIFERENTS ESCALES 5

6 INITIAL DATA NEEDED SAT Radar Buoys Rawsonda Met station data 6

7 Wind forecast: ensemble techniques Global model forecast (GFS, ECMWF) - NWS FTP UPLOAD FTP 2-10 Mbytes ZIP 2 Mbits connection Met Tower Production Availability FTP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES Barcelona GRIBGRID FILES 2 GBytes Mesoscale M l model d l fforecastt (MASS + WRF + ARPS) METEOSIM HEADQUARTERS UPLOAD TO CONTROL ROOM CONTROL ROOM WSTATION FORECASTS-VALIDATION DATA RESULTS WEB MET TOWER PRODUCTION AVAILABILITY METEOROLOGIST TRADING DEPARTMENT SCADA Ankara CONTROL ROOM WStation CONTROL ROOM - Backup SSH METEOSIM TRUEWIND TECHNICAL DEPARTMENT Turkey WEB MAPS WEB Barcelona 7

8 Ski resorts Lon term forecasts. 8

9 and Real adjustment: Sailing forecasts: tool decision based on wind 9

10 Wind forecasts onshore and offshore. Automatic procedures: how to use numerical weather forecasts? 10

11 PREVISIONES NÁUTICAS: Air quality control: services based in wind forecasts. Los modelos de dispersión analizan el terreno en alta resolución. 11

12 Numerical forecasts can provide graphical plus tabular results. Fire risk based in NWP. Fire Weather Index 12

13 Media forecasts SCREEN 13

14 and others: take care with quality Final weather forecasts seems the similar! 14

15 Wind forecasts is applied in forensic analysis. Wind wave forecasts 15

16 Even rainfall forecasts: not the same error Ejemplo de aplicación de modelos de simulación numérica para previsión de lluvias en puntos concretos. PREDICCIONES PERSONALIZADAS: modelización en todo el mundo a las resoluciones necesarias 16

17 Samples: climatic database managment. See: SERVICIOS GENERALES Numerosos y variados clientes requieren boletines de predicción objetivos y sintéticos. La toma de decisiones debe partir de informaciones objetivas, elaboradas por expertos y con la información justa y necesaria. 17

18 Statistics model Real data of wind and production are used to adjust computational forecasts. MOS (Mean Output Statistic): empirical relation between historical data and forecasts parameters Real time data are used to adjust final forecasts. Predict ors P 1,P 2,... SMLR ANN SVM F Predict and Training Algorithm F= f(p 1,P 2,...) 18

19 Modelo estadístico Different regional models Wind speed Forecasts vs. Real Production 19

20 Absolute mean error increase quickly during first 6 hours. Modelo de validación: Typical forecasts adjustment (Single Wind Plant, 1h time step) Staistical NWP adjusted it s better than climatological values during 5 7 days. Wind farm data required to improve persistence based 40% forecasts 35% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Persistence Forecast Time Horizon (Hours) 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Climatology Physical Model with MOS (no real-time plant data) Short-term statistical model (with real-time plant data) Time (Hours) 20

21 THANKS! Sr. Santi Parés Director Comercial Tel , Barcelona SPAIN 21