NGL Outlook To Market, To Market, But Where Will It Go?

Transcription

1 NGL Outlook To Market, To Market, But Where Will It Go? PLATTS Rockies Oil and Gas Conference April 15, 213 Presented by Anne Keller Manager, NGL Research

2 Content Summary NGL Supply Outlook Rich Gas Economics Hold the Key to Future Growth Ethane Rejection Short Term Solution or Long Term Investment Barrier? Has the Propane Supply Problem Already Been Solved? Play Level Analysis - A Race Between Growth and Decline NGL Outlook Issues and Opportunities for Rockies NGL s Ethane Prices - Rejection Short Term Solution or Long Term Investment Barrier? Wood Mackenzie 2

3 $ billions % of budget to gas $ billions % of budget to gas 213 Capital Spending Forecast Gas prices higher than last year, but NGL prices remain challenged Oil is the Target This Year Capital Increase 1% Capital Decrease 1% % % 5 4 5% 5 4 5% % % 1 1 % % 212 US Budget 213 US Budget 213 % Gas Capex 212 US Budget 213 US Budget 213 % Gas Capex Sources: Wood Mackenzie North American Gas Service, Company reports Wood Mackenzie 3

4 bcfd Rigs A tighter gas market in 213 and 214 is expected to support increased drilling by mid-year in rich gas plays Since Jan. 212, gas rig count has declined 49% Net decline is effectively 34% after accounting for increased productivity 212 Marcellus drilling accounted for 19% of gas rigs and 33% of new drilled gas volumes Headline gas production number may fall this year Rigs will take longer to return in dry gas plays Limited pickup seen for Barnett, Fayetteville and Haynesville Oil drilling relatively flat Oil drilling to account for 1.4 bcfd of newly drilled gas volumes in 213 and increased NGL production, more than offsetting falloff in lower NGL content plays Rig Productivity and Drilling outlook 12 1,6 1 1,4 1,2 8 1, Jan-12 Sep-12 May-13 Jan-14 Sep-14 Other Gas Mid-Cont. Gas Haynesville Rockies Marcellus Eagle Ford Oil Gas rigs Oil rigs Source: Wood Mackenzie (North American Gas Service) Wood Mackenzie 4

5 K bpd Associated gas contributes Baseload to NGL supply But Rich Gas Drilling is Needed For The Big Boost Base NGL supply from oil plays and Base Gas 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 NGL Supply Forecast Increase +1.6 million bpd With Rich Gas drilling NGL Supply Base Tight Oil Drilling Only US NGLs - Base Gas Permian Tight oil Mississippian Hz Oil Niobrara shale Sources: Wood Mackenzie NGL services Other Oil plays Bakken SHO Eagle Ford Oil Associated gas from Tight oil is providing baseload support for continued NGL growth, as rich-gas production slows this year: Rockies NGL (including Bakken) forecast to increase by 25 k bpd to 7 k bpd in 22 as associated gas from tight oil rises, if rich gas drilling resumes Overall, growth in oil- associated gas will produce enough NGLs to hold production nearly flat at 21 levels, plus: New gas wells drilled after 212 targeted to produce another 1.6 million b/d of NGLs by 22, but The high case NGL production growth outlook is highly dependent on favorable drilling economics returning to support rich gas drilling AND economics that support NGL extraction and transportation from remote tight oil plays, especially ethane Wood Mackenzie 5

6 Ethane Production in Mb/d Price (c/gallon), Inventory (MM bbls) Ethane Short Term View Supply growth curtailed by low prices Rejection in the field, Rising gas heat content Ethane Inventories Are High Ethane inventories and peak regional production Source: Wood Mackenzie 139 Ethane Inventory Sum:262 Sum: Inventory Level Rockies N.Mexico Texas Inland TX gulf Coast LA Gulf Coast OK-KS-MO IN-IL-KY Inventory- CAP Ethane Price Ethane prices remain challenged short term, but MidContinent prices have equalized with Gulf Coast as pipeline expansions come online Long hot summer ahead, with limited relief for prices Domestic demand requires additional investment and time to catch up with the growth in supply: Ethylene expansions require downtime to tie in demand should pick up 2 nd half 213 Newbuilds are 2-3 years away Source: Wood Mackenzie North American NGL Service, EIA Wood Mackenzie 6

7 K bpd Ethane Supply/Demand Outlook The Size of the Prize for Ethylene Producers 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, ,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Bakken Region Utica Marcellus Rockies MidContinent San Juan Basin Permian Barnett/East TX Gulf Coast/Eagle Ford Gulf of Mexico Total Demand Shown in order of relative transportation cost to US Gulf Coast markets (bottom to top) Indicates continued pressure on Rockies ethane values likely will continue to , if significant Marcellus/Utica volumes head to the Gulf Coast All time high US ethane demand of 1 million bpd was in late 211 have not broken this level since Bakken supply has potential to exceed current Vantage pipeline capacity, provide additional opportunity for Canadian ethylene exports; otherwise, must recover volumes could continue to press US prices Source: Wood Mackenzie North American NGL & Petrochemicals Services Wood Mackenzie 7

8 K bpd Propane Balances Projecting a Tighter Market Mid-Decade 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, ,6 1,4 1,2 1, Imports Gas Plants Refineries Total Demand Indicates a long North American market through due to construction lag for export terminals Pressure on storage capacity may occur in some areas, lead to higher carryover balances next year Post 215, balances should tighten Potential for continuation of lower prices until then Longer term prices dependent on global demand and level of contract volumes committed to export Source: Wood Mackenzie Wood Mackenzie 8

9 K bpd Propane Demand Overview What is Needed to Balance The Market? 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Source: Wood Mackenzie Exports Petrochemical Odorized Projects included in current demand outlook: Expansion of existing Gulf Coast terminals (complete in 213) One new Gulf Coast terminal (4 currently announced/under study) 3 new propane dehydrogenation projects in US, 1 in Canada (3 announced, more under study) Completion of the East Coast pipeline to export terminal project (Mariner East), due Pacific rail to water terminals Wood Mackenzie 9

10 MMcf/d Issues and Opportunities for Rockies Producers Processing Capacity is on the Way Processing Capacity & Gas Production Forecast Traditional Rockies Plays Expansion Parachute Creek New Lancaster La Salle Lucerne II Expansion Mewborne New Pleasant Valley Expansion Chipeta, Iron horse & Red Wash 1 Existing Capacity Capacity Expansion New Capacity 212 Wet-gas production 213 Wet-gas production 214 Wet-gas production 215 Wet-gas production Sources: Wood Mackenzie NGL Service Wood Mackenzie 1

11 Mb/d Issues and Opportunities for Rockies Producers NGL Takeaway is Under Construction But Is It Enough? Y-Grade Pipeline Capacity & NGL Production Forecast Y-Grade Pipeline Capacity appears to be adequate for barrels targeting an existing hub Key uncertainties: Elimination of flaring requires more processing/rich gas pipeline infrastructure Gas quality some new gas has higher gallons per Mcf NGL yields than initially expected Higher value markets not always near the same hub is more local optionality the answer? Sources: Wood Mackenzie NGL Service Wood Mackenzie 11

12 NGL Infrastructure Buildout 2. The Takeaway Equation Suppliers To Optimize Investments in New Capacity Perceived ROI for Continued NGL Supply Growth Limited Oil focused producers capital spend focused on moving oil to market Dry gas producers gas value focus; limited incentive for NGL spend; NGL recovery based on short term economics in available facilities Oil producers capturing value from flared gas Extensive Rich gas producers NGL value is important; existing capacity supports incremental investment in ethane recovery and NGL transportation Now that the first wave of new construction is nearly complete, industry is looking ahead to what s next higher gas prices are good news for NGL focused companies & midstream Wood Mackenzie 12

13 NGL Infrastructure Buildout and Beyond Hub Logistics or Point to Point? Optionality is Key Conway VS. Conway Focus is shifting away from sending barrels to a long market to keeping options open in other locations Potential for: More skid-mounted systems to follow the flow more easily Local fractionation and/or stabilization to add value via separating streams Rail shipments to multiple markets Mont Belvieu Mont Belvieu Wood Mackenzie 13

14 Wood Mackenzie Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared by Wood Mackenzie Limited for delivery on April 15, 213. It has not been prepared for the benefit of any particular attendee and may not be relied upon by any attendee or other third party. If, notwithstanding the foregoing, this presentation is relied upon by any person, Wood Mackenzie Limited does not accept, and disclaims, all liability for loss and damage suffered as a result. The information contained in these slides may be retained by attendees. However, these slides and the contents of this presentation may not be disclosed to any other person or published by any means without Wood Mackenzie Limited's prior written permission. Wood Mackenzie 14

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