African Economic Outlook 2013

Transcription

1 African Economic Outlook 2013 Structural Transformation and Natural Resources in Africa HB Solignac-Lecomte OECD Development Centre East West Business Forum 2013: EMERGING AFRICA, Prague, Sept. 25, 2013

2 Outlook

3 The Growth Story Africa s growth sustained despite headwinds from the global economy Africa s real GDP expected to grow by 4.8% in 2013 and 5.3% in

4 Growth Rate (%) Africa s Growth: Strong long-term trend disturbed by short-term turbulences Africa Africa excluding Libya 4

5 Growth by regions ns (e) 2013 (p) 2014 (p) Real GDP Growth (%) Central Africa East Africa North Africa Southern Africa West Africa Africa

6 Libya s GDP fall and rebound is affecting Africa s Growth GDP growth Africa Incl. Libya 3.5% 6.6% 4.8% 5.3% Excl. Libya 4.3% 4.2% 4.5% 5.2% 6

7 Libya 11.6% Côte d Ivoire 9.3% Chad 9.5% Sierra Leone 9.6% Ghana 8.4% Congo Dem. Rep. Rwanda 8.8% 7.2% The 10 Fastest Growing African Countries in 2013/14 Angola 8% Zambia 7.6% Mozambique 8.3% 7

8 Algeria 3.6% Egypt 2.7% Sudan 2.8% Equatorial Guinea 1.4% The 10 Slowest Growing African Countries in 2013/14 South Africa 3.2% Swaziland 1.3% Lesotho 3.7% Seychelles 3.8% Comoros 3.5% Madagascar 3.5% 8

9 Trade : China s acceleration Billion USD Africa's exports to selected partners ( ) EU-27 China USA India, Brazil, Korea, Turkey, Russia Intra-African 9

10 Africa should trade more with itself Billion USD 1200,0 1000,0 800,0 32% Manufacturing valueadded processing Raw Resources 600,0 400,0 18% Not-specified 200,0 0,0 14% 67% 41% 1. EU25 2. USA 3. China 4. in Africa 5.Other emerging partners 38% 6.Other traditional partners 10

11 Africa s import boom African imports (in Billion USD) Machinery/transport equipmt Other Manufactured goods & Chemicals Food, beverages & tobacco Oil, Metals, Mineral and Other crude commodities N.C. (Unspecified goods) 11

12 USD billion Financial Flows to African Countries TOTAL Remittances ODA FDI Portfolio investments 12

13 % GDP energy price index 20% 15% Domestic resource Mobilisation Collected taxes by type, as % of GDP (weighted) Resource taxes Direct taxes 10% 150 Indirect taxes 5% 100 Trade taxes 0% Energy price index ( right axis, base 100 = 2000) 13

14 Inflation: cautious optimism 12 10, ,6 4,2 6,4 5,7 6,9 7,1 4,2 6,1 6,5 5,7 5, ,4 Median Inflation (%) 0 14

15 Public protests and violence (Base year 1996 = 100) Civil violence index Civil protest index 15

16 Africa Rising? Drivers of growth = Shifting wealth (including the commodity price boom), demography and better macroeconomic policies But 5% growth is not enough to take-off Tackling the job challenge: structural transformation 16

17 Structural Transformation and Natural Resources 17

18 Young (15-24) People, Million GDP, Billion (2005 PPP int. $) Not so good: jobs are not keeping up, especially for the young Youth Population Youth Employment GDP (right axis) 18

19 Good news: Africa s growth has been driven by structural transformation Decomposition of productivity growth by country group within structural LAC LAC AFRICA AFRICA ASIA ASIA HI HI -1,00 0,00 1,00 2,00 3,00 4,00 % change -1,00 0,00 1,00 2,00 3,00 4,00 % change Source: Authors calculations based on census data and a labour force survey for a sample of nine African countries.

20 African exports in USD billion (constant 2000 prices) Price Index 2005 = 100 Natural Resources: Africa benefitted from better terms of trade Processed goods Raw commodities Not-specified Energy Agriculture Metals & Minerals Source: OECD Development Centre calculations based on UN ComTrade and World Bank Global Economic Prospects, June 2012, 20

21 Poverty reduction % Not so good news: faster transformation is needed to make growth inclusive 20,00 15,00 Trend had growth been inclusive 10,00 5,00 0,00 Actual trend of poverty reduction -5,00 0,00 2,00 4,00 6,00 8,00 10,00 12,00 Growth in % Source: Authors' calculations based on household surveys from 16 countries. 21

22 Africa could have made more of the 14% 12% 10% resource boom Africa's share of global resource assets 8% 6% 4% 10% 11% 11% 12% 9% 2% 0% 5% Mining Energy Agriculture Source: Authors' calculations based on data from World Bank (2012), The Changing Wealth of Nations, World Bank, Washington, DC. 22

23 Why Natural Resources? Africa has a low skill-to-land ratio comparative advantage in natural resources must make the most of them

24 Removing the curse: 3 Principles for natural resource-based structural transformation 1. Overcome dependence 2. To diversify beyond natural resources, start by diversifying amongst natural resources. 3. Structural transformation and natural resource sectors face similar bottlenecks 24

25 Average total natural resource rent (% of GDP, average ) Average subsoil assets per capita in 2005 (constant 2005 USD) 1. Overcoming dependence is the key to natural-resource based development Resource dependence (LHS) Resource Abundance (RHS) Low income Lower middle Upper middle income income Country income groups High income: OECD (only includes countries with subsoil assets; excluding high income non-oecd countries) Source: Authors' calculations based on data from World Bank (2012), The Changing Wealth of Nations, World Bank, Washington, DC

26 Number of fully manufactured products with RCA (2010) 2. A strong natural resource sector is a 250 diversified one y = 2,2837x + 33,491 R² = 0, Number of raw products with RCA (2005) Source: Authors' calculations based on UN (2013), UN ComTrade, (database). 26

27 3. Structural transformation and natural resource sectors face similar bottlenecks Rules for exploration & exploitation Land Mgmt. & Ownership Availability of relevant inputs Governance Natural Resource Sectors Structural Transformation Skills Infrastructure 27

28 Country Energy needs for metal refining & Africa s generation capacity 2009 Electricity production (GWh) 2009 Energy need for refining of mining production (GWh), (bauxite, iron, copper and nickel only) Energy requirement of base metal refining as share of total electricity output Botswana 444 2, % Tanzania 4,628 2,583 56% Congo, Dem. Rep. 7,830 7,738 99% Zimbabwe 7, % Ghana 8,958 8,800 98% Zambia 10,308 15, % Algeria 42,769 6,600 15% Egypt, Arab Rep. 139,000 7,200 5% South Africa 246, , % Africa* 664, , %

29 3 Priority Policy Areas Help private local firms become the suppliers of multinationals Help capabilities accumulated in resource sectors be applied in other sectors (Sweden, US). Invest revenue to remove bottlenecks 31

30 Looking Forward Refining monitoring, analysis and forecasts: AEO model, Hidalgo model Promoting public / private dialogue: GVC Dialogue Network, Natural Resource Dialogue Network 32

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