Global Insurance & Reinsurance Market Update Aon Corporation Australia Limited ABN

Transcription

1 Global Insurance & Reinsurance Market Update 2014 Aon Corporation Australia Limited ABN

2 Panel Members James Baum Chief Broking Officer, Pacific Aon Risk Solutions Ernest Leung Chief Broking Officer, China Aon Risk Solutions Robert De Souza President APAC, CEO Australia & New Zealand Aon Benfield

3 Agenda Reinsurance market update Local/global insurance market update Alternative capacity China Alternative capital What will happen next?

4 Reinsurance Supply Increases Continue to Outpace Demand Source: Individual Company Reports, Aon Benfield Analytics

5 Global Catastrophe Losses Maintain Below Normal Pace 10 year Average (Annual)

6 Reinsurance Market - Local Commentary

7 Agenda Reinsurance market update Local/global insurance market update Alternative capacity China Alternative capital What will happen next?

8 Australian Property Market

9 Australian Liability Market

10 Agenda Reinsurance market update Local/global insurance market update Alternative capacity China Alternative capital What will happen next?

11 Non-life Insurance Market Overview ( ) CAGR % 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 25,508 32,237 37,698 46,380 62,877 74,481 85, ,198 Non-life Premium (USD million)

12 Chinese Non-life Insurance Market Overview (2013) % by Line of Business Yearly Growth by LOB Personal lines, 5% Others, 7% LOB 2013/2012 Auto 17.87% Commercial lines 12.05% Auto, 73% Commercial Line, 22% Property, 7% Liability, 5% Property 5.14% Construction 26.26% Marine -0.59% Liability 21.56% Personal lines 34.89% Marine, 2% Construction, 1% Total : 17.20%

13 Summary of Major Chinese Market - Capacity and Appetite (USD) Carrier Rating Maximum Capacity * (PD/BI) (USD million) PICC Moody's A1 835 CPIC Moody's A1 900 Experience and Appetite Can lead in any way with significant Chinese interest Otherwise mostly PDBI, XOL and as following market; selectively for quota share and casualty Can lead in any way with significant Chinese interest Otherwise mostly PDBI, XOL and as following market; selectively for quota share and casualty. Ping An S&P A 540 Only those with Chinese interest and can lead or follow Huatai Fitch A- 520 Only those with Chinese interest and can lead or follow Mostly PDBI and as following market China Re AM Best A Prefer multi location risk * Capacity reduces significantly depending on extent of Chinese interest

14 Most Active Carriers: PICC CPIC China Re Chinese Capacity Participating in International Programs 2013 Facts: $70m was placed using Chinese capacity (excluding Chinese driven overseas project) Existing Chinese Carriers Involvement Industry Distribution of a Single Carrier % Manufacturing 34% Healthcare service & Entertainment and leisure 18% Retail and wholesale Trade 16% Power & Energy 15% Technology and communications 8% Business and personal services 8% Others 1% Total: 100% Represents a reliable representation of the whole portfolio of Chinese capacity participating in international programs.

15 Agenda Reinsurance market update Local/global insurance market update Alternative capacity China Alternative capital What will happen next?

16 $ Millions Adjusted EL Multiple Nat Cat Bond Market Review Nat Cat Bond Metrics 2014 Issuances 2014 Issuance Volume 18 $5.7B Outstanding 2014 Maturities Remaining $20.7B $460M Cat Bond Issuance and Outstanding by Year Cat Bond Secondary Market Pricing Trendlines 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,734 7,859 4, ,735 2,730 1,1431,498 3,396 4,850 4,261 5,875 7,137 5, Nat Cat Issuance Nat Cat Outstanding YTD U.S. Hurricane Europe Windstorm 0.00 Dec 10 Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 12 Jun 13 Dec 13 Jun 14 Source: All data within this presentation sourced by Aon Benfield Securities as at 28 August 2014 unless otherwise stated

17 Capital ($b) Limit ($b) Alternative Capital Inflows to Reinsurance Market 60 Estimated Collateralised Market Size '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 ILW Sidecar $250b $50b $4b $19b $23b $4b Traditional Limit Collateralised Re Industry Loss Warranties Worldwide Excess of Loss Property Cat Reinsurance ILW Sidecar Collateralised Reinsurance Cat Bonds Annualised Growth = 21% Collateralised Market Size Expected Annualised Growth = 25% ~$100B of new alternative capital expected to enter the reinsurance market by Source: Aon Benfield Securities, Aon Benfield Market Analysis Alternative Capital Growth

18 Swiss Re Munich Re SCOR Everest Catlin Amlin AXIS Argo RenaissanceRe Hannover Re Florida Citizens USAA AIG Allstate Zenkyoren AXA Chubb CEA State Farm Nationwide Travelers North Carolina Groupama Allianz Tokio Marine TCIP TWIA Assurant Liberty Zurich Louisiana Citizens Generali QBE Country Mutual California State CIF Heritage P&C American Coastal ASIC Hartford Fire Ins Mitsui Sumitomo Sompo Japan Great American American Modern Achmea FONDEN EDF New York MTA $ Millions Cat Bonds on Risk by Sponsor and Issuance Year Reinsurers Insurers Other 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Issuance Year: Note: Data accounts for any impairment of bonds

19 Agenda Reinsurance market update (Rob) Local/global insurance market update (James) Alternative capacity China (Ernest) Alternative capital (James input from Liz) What will happen next?