Risk Benchmark Study Non-life Insurance in China and India

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1 Risk Benchmark Study Non-life Insurance in China and India Market Dynamics, Exposure and Underwriting Experience Authors Yisi Lu, Zhou Terry Fang, Evan Leite Advisor Dr. Shaun Wang November 2013 Insurance Risk and Finance Research Centre (IRFRC) Nanyang Business School Nanyang Technological University / Website:

2 RISK BENCHMARK STUDY NON-LIFE INSURANCE IN CHINA AND INDIA Market Dynamics, Exposure and Underwriting Experience Risk Lighthouse LLC November 2013 Page 1 of 41

3 Contents Overview... 4 Emerging and Growing Non-Life Insurance Markets: China and India... 4 Business mix: Motor Line Dominates Both Markets... 5 Market Dynamics... 6 Market Competition... 6 Market Development... 8 Regulations Underwriting Experience Industry Performance Segment Level: Peer Group Comparison Reinsurance Analysis-China Line of Business Level Motor Vehicle Insurance Motor Insurance Policy Comparison Exposure: Number of cars Underwriting Performance Catastrophe Exposure and Underinsurance Appendix 1: Data Sources and Procedures Appendix 2: References Contacts Table of Figures Figure 1 China Non-Life Business Mix, 2012 Figure 2 India Non-Life Business Mix, Figure 3 Herfindahl-Hirschman Index of Non-Life Insurance Market... 7 Figure 4 Market Development Metrics Relative to US Figure 5 Loss Ratio Trend, China Figure 6 Expense Ratio Trend, China Figure 7 Combined Ratio Trend, China Figure 8 Operating Ratio Trend, China Figure 9 Combined Ratio by Company Segment, China Figure 10 Loss Ratio Trend, India Figure 11 Expense Ratio Trend, India Figure 12 Combined Ratio Trend, India Figure 13 Operating Ratio Trend, India Figure 14 Combined Ratio by Company Segment, India Figure 15 Reinsurance Risk and Return, China Figure 16 Reinsurance Margin vs. GLR Percentile, China Figure 17 Motor Vehicle Ownership, China Figure 18 Newly Registered Motor Vehicles, China Figure 19 Motor Vehicle Ownership, India Figure 20 Newly Registered Motor Vehicles, India Page 2 of 41

4 Executive Summary The Risk Lighthouse team is commissioned by the Insurance Risk and Finance Research Centre (IRFRC) at Nanyang Business School to perform data collection, cleaning and analysis for the non-life insurance markets in China and India. This report presents the main results of our analysis at the current stage of non-life insurance market development in China and India, highlighting market dynamics, exposure growth and underwriting performance, using both quantitative and qualitative inputs. At the foundation of our analysis are the data collection and cleaning efforts as summarized in the appendix. The research draws attention to the highly potent and yet undeveloped underwriting experience and the evolving regulatory environment of China and India s non-life insurance markets. Through further segmentation, outperforming companies in premium growth and underwriting profit are identified among their peers. Further investigations into motor vehicle insurance reveal that India s underwriting performance has slightly improved since enduring a persistent underwriting loss in recent years, while China s underwriting performance has been favorable but faces the challenge of a decreasing rate level due to the opening up of market competition. In addition, we present an analysis of the reinsurance margin for China s non-life insurance business. Catastrophe exposure and underinsurance are also discussed in this report. Our analysis is based on data collected by Risk Lighthouse LLC and a research team from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. Data of Chinese non-life insurance before 2009 have been adjusted to reflect changes in accounting principles. We recognize that both China and India s non-life markets are growing fast and changing constantly, so any predictions or extrapolations based on this study should be made carefully. Page 3 of 41

5 Overview Emerging and Growing Non-Life Insurance Markets: China and India The primary driver of insurance market development and premium growth is economic growth, which increases business activity and personal wealth. Both China and India, as leading emerging countries and two of the largest economies in the world, have received attention for their potential in non-life insurance market development; rapid economic and insurance premium growth and yet low insurance penetration. Both countries are enjoying double-digit non-life premium growth rates after inflation adjustments (Table 1), which is quite impressive, compared to other regions in the world. However, as Table 2 shows, the penetration of non-life insurance in China and India was still below the Asia and world average levels as of 2012, even after many years development. Considering their robust economic growth, there is a huge opportunity for non-life insurance premium growth and market development as these two emerging countries gradually catch up. Table 1 Real Non-Life Premium Growth Inflation Adjusted; Source: Swiss Re Sigma Country/Region China 27.5% 10.4% 13.6% India 7.8% 13.9% 10.2% Asia 9.0% 8.0% 8.1% North America -0.2% 0.4% 1.7% Europe 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% World 1.8% 1.9% 2.6% Table 2 Non-Life Insurance Penetration Source: Swiss Re Sigma, India Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (IRDA), China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) Country/Region China 0.70% 0.69% 0.73% 0.78% 0.78% 0.88% 1.00% 1.01% 1.06% India 0.62% 0.63% 0.66% 0.63% 0.59% 0.59% 0.61% 0.65% NA Asia 1.76% 1.67% 1.60% 1.59% 1.63% 1.57% 1.61% 1.59% 1.64% World 3.40% 3.15% 3.00% 3.05% 2.95% 2.98% 2.89% 2.83% 2.81% Page 4 of 41

6 Business mix: Motor Line Dominates Both Markets The majority of written premiums in China and India come from property lines, which have shorter tails than liability lines. Motor lines, namely compulsory motor third party liability (MTPL) and non-compulsory motor insurance in China, MTPL (named TP in India) and Own Damage (OD) in India, have been dominating the market. In 2012, motor lines account for 73% of the total non-life written premium in China (Figure 1), while in India the motor lines contribute 59% of the total non-life written premium (Figure 2, non-life but excluding health). Commercial property 1 is the second largest segment in both lines, accounting for 7% in China and 13% in India. Figure 1 China Non-Life Business Mix, 2012 Figure 2 India Non-Life Business Mix, Agriculture 4% Liability 3% Commercial Property 7% Other 13% Marine 7% Others 21% Motor 73% Fire 13% Motor 59% 1 In India, the definition of fire, marine and other lines is as below: Explanation for line of business categorization in India Fire Marine Others Coverage for properties like buildings, plants, machineries and etc. against loss or damage due to fire, explosion, storm, hurricane and etc. Coverage for loss or damage to the cargo while in transit by sea/air/rail/road/courier Engineering, aviation, liability, crop insurance and etc. Page 5 of 41

7 Market Dynamics Market Competition Both non-life insurance markets remain at an undeveloped stage, when compared to Europe or the US. For example, both markets are initiated and led by a few large companies, but many new players have been entering and competing, and both markets observed significant changes during recent years. The number of non-life companies in China has almost doubled since The top three companies still write about two thirds of the total premium, varying little since However, the competition becomes more intense for medium and small-sized companies (Table 3). In India, the number of companies did not grow as rapidly as it did in China, but the market share of the top four companies (also the four public companies) has decreased significantly over these years (Table 4), indicating that the private companies, though still smaller than the public ones, are growing steadily. Table 3 Market Statistics, China Year Domestic Number of Foreign Companies Total Top 3 80% 73% 67% 64% 64% 64% 66% 67% 65% Market Share Top 5 90% 86% 81% 78% 76% 74% 75% 74% 74% Top 10 97% 96% 93% 90% 87% 85% 86% 86% 85% HHI Table 4 Market Statistics, India Year Number of Companies Market Share Private Public Total Top % 74.87% 66.65% 61.84% 60.80% 60.98% 60.26% 59.11% Top % 82.29% 78.18% 73.32% 71.62% 70.18% 69.95% 68.55% HHI The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) is a measure of the sizes of firms in relation to the industry and can be used as an indicator of market competition. The HHI is calculated as the sum of squared market share of the top 50 companies in the industry, or all companies if there are less than 50. Usually, an HHI above 0.25 indicates high market concentration, between 0.15 and 0.25 indicates moderate concentration, and below 0.15 indicates a non-concentrated market. Page 6 of 41

8 As Figure 3 shows, China s insurance market has consistently been more concentrated than India s in recent years. However, between 2004 and 2007, the HHI of China s non-life insurance market decreased significantly, indicating that the largest companies lost some of their commanding market shares during this period of elevated competition. This decrease in China s HHI slowed down after 2008, coupled with a relatively stable level of market share for the top 3 companies, while the competition among medium and small-sized companies became more intense as the number of companies continuously grew. Similar to China, India observed a decrease in top 4 companies share in the market, from 81% in 2004 to 59% in However, fewer new companies entered India s non-life market during this period. Therefore, the market share distribution in India is less skewed than that distribution in China. Figure 3 Herfindahl-Hirschman Index of Non-Life Insurance Market China India Page 7 of 41

9 Market Development Though the development of an insurance market depends on various factors, in this report it is mainly discussed in terms of three aspects that can be quantified, as shown in Table 5: Expense ratio, i.e. expense to gross written premium ratio of the entire market 2, as a measurement of efficiency of insurance operation Insurance penetration, i.e. non-life premium to GDP ratio, as a measurement of development of insurance segments in the economy Interquartile range (IQR) of loss ratio, as a measurement of the variation of underwriting performance Table 5 Market Development Metrics Year Number of Companies Loss Ratio IQR Expense Ratio Penetration China India China India China India China India % 21.82% 29.64% 21.47% 0.73% 0.66% % 21.23% 29.19% 23.67% 0.78% 0.63% % 16.55% 27.88% 26.90% 0.78% 0.59% % 16.28% 29.27% 27.00% 0.88% 0.59% % 18.66% 26.43% 27.52% 1.00% 0.61% % 13.33% 26.31% 24.20% 1.01% 0.65% For comparison purposes, the indicators are further standardized by calculating the relativity to the level of the United States non-life insurance market between 2009 and Relativity greater than 1 indicates a more developed market, i.e. lower expense ratio, higher insurance penetration and lower loss ratio IQR. 2 Since the average expense ratio is actually weighted by gross written premium, the results will be driven by the largest companies. India and US data do not show significant differences in expense levels between the largest and the smaller companies, but in China the top three companies have lower expense ratios than other companies (23.9% vs. 34.4% in 2011), which drove the industry average to 26.31%. With this noted and given that fact that the top three companies have two thirds of the market share in China, the industry average is still used here to reflect the overall expense level of a market. Page 8 of 41

10 Figure 4 Market Development Metrics Relative to US Loss Ratio IQR Expense Ratio China US (Rate Level High) Penetration India US (Rate Level Low) Figure 4 indicates that China and India are very close to the US in terms of expense ratio; both markets fall quite behind in insurance penetration; India has a lower loss ratio IQR than the US, but considering that India has far fewer insurance companies (only 19 as of 2013) than the US does, the lower loss ratio IQR does not indicate a more developed market. China, on the other hand, has greater variation in loss ratio, meaning that the overall market still needs time to reach maturity and develop sophisticated underwriting skills. To narrow the gaps, China and India need to embrace market competition and further develop non-life penetration. For China, there are new companies joining the competition every year and the market will become quite dynamic before it reaches certain level of development, where underperformers will either exit the market or be acquired and outperformers will solidify their position in the market. In India, many still wait for the opportunity to enter the market, especially foreign companies, which are currently limited by the 26% foreign ownership cap effective since As for penetration growth, it will be a long and winding process for both, as it would not happen without economic growth and regulatory development, in addition to greater awareness of risk management in the society. 3 The proposal to increase foreign direct investment (FDI) cap in insurance from 26 per cent to 49 percent has been under debate since Page 9 of 41

11 Regulations While the primary driver of insurance market development is economic growth, it is a healthy and developed legal and regulatory environment that helps the market mature. Below is a brief list of the significant changes in regulations that have affected the insurance markets in China and India: China -Compulsory MTPL market opened to foreign players on May 1 st 2012, indicating that foreign companies can get a bigger market share of the motor vehicle insurance, and hopefully profit from cross-selling noncompulsory policies. -Eligible companies will be approved to design and price their own products, instead of copying from the manual policy and rates, according to an announcement from the CIRC in September The CIRC has carefully set strict underwriting and solvency requirements for eligibility; therefore this rate reform is expected to be very different from the unsuccessful one during 2003 to 2006, in which the rate level decreased to an unsustainable level and irrational competition led to a deficit. - Regulations on investment and financing have been loosening since 2010, including the limit on bonds, equity, real estate investments and issuing subordinated debt. - A new solvency regime is under construction. The CIRC has engaged various parties in the industry and has begun testing on real data. From all the above regulatory changes, we can tell that the CIRC would like to introduce a healthy, sustainable competition among companies with focus on profit and solvency, and facilitate the industry to grow with fewer restrictions in investment and financing. India -The India Motor Third Party Pool was dismantled on March 31, A reclined risk pool was introduced for commercial vehicles that find it difficult to get third party coverage. -To address the deficit of TP policies, the IRDA raised the motor TP tariff rate on March 26, 2013, but lower than the originally proposed rate. - The cap of foreign ownership of an insurance company remains 26%, but raising it to 49% has been proposed many times. Overall, India is working on the issue of unprofitable MTPL insurance business and progress is reflected in the recent financial results. However the future is still not clear for foreign companies that would like to enter this market or expand their business in India. Page 10 of 41

12 Underwriting Experience Industry Performance Industry performance is measured by the industry s average performance (median, or the 50 th percentile) and deviation (interquartile range, or the range between the 25 th percentile and 75 th percentile is used to reduce the effect of outliers) of loss ratio, expense ratio, combined ratio and operating ratio. Overall, the underwriting performance of China s non-life industry has improved from 2009 to 2011(Figure 7), shown by decreases in both loss ratio and expense ratio (Figure 5), indicating better risk management and more efficient operations. However, the market becomes more challenging for small domestic players, with an average combined ratio of 107.4% and an operating ratio of 101.5% in 2011, as shown in Figure 9. Meanwhile, the variance of the industry average loss ratio, measured by the gap between the 75 th percentile and 25 th percentile, has significantly decreased (Figure 5 ), and so has the operating ratio (Figure 7). Figure 5 Loss Ratio Trend, China Figure 6 Expense Ratio Trend, China 25 th, 50 th and 75 th Percentile 25 th, 50 th and 75 th Percentile Page 11 of 41

13 Figure 7 Combined Ratio Trend, China Figure 8 Operating Ratio Trend, China 25 th, 50 th and 75 th Percentile 25 th, 50 th and 75 th Percentile Figure 9 Combined Ratio by Company Segment, China 110% 105% 100% Total Large Domestic 95% 90% Medium Domestic Small Domestic Foreign 85% 80% Page 12 of 41

14 Table 6 Performance by Company Segment, China Year Segmentation Loss Ratio Expense Ratio Combined Ratio Operating Ratio 2009 Total 65.6% 29.9% 95.5% 90.1% 2009 Large Domestic 65.4% 26.6% 92.0% 87.6% 2009 Medium Domestic 64.4% 36.3% 100.7% 95.3% 2009 Small Domestic 64.8% 37.8% 102.6% 87.2% 2009 Foreign 80.6% 33.1% 113.7% 102.4% 2010 Total 63.0% 27.0% 90.1% 85.6% 2010 Large Domestic 63.0% 24.9% 87.9% 84.1% 2010 Medium Domestic 60.3% 32.6% 92.8% 87.1% 2010 Small Domestic 65.4% 33.2% 98.6% 93.5% 2010 Foreign 79.9% 28.8% 108.6% 100.4% 2011 Total 61.4% 26.9% 88.2% 85.2% 2011 Large Domestic 62.3% 23.9% 86.3% 83.4% 2011 Medium Domestic 57.5% 34.2% 91.7% 88.8% 2011 Small Domestic 67.1% 40.3% 107.4% 101.5% 2011 Foreign 64.8% 30.6% 95.3% 90.8% Underwriting costs in the India non-life industry have increased in the long term but the expense ratio decreased significantly in the year of 2011, leaving the combined ratio stay the same level as of year 2009 (Figure 12 on the following page). The variation in loss ratio and expense ratio both decreased in year 2011, however the spread of operating ratio is still huge, indicating an overall better underwriting result, but the return from investment varies among companies. Compared to other countries, combined ratio in India is very high, and its 25 th percentile has been increasing since 2006 (Figure 12 on the following page), indicating that there is very little room for underwriting profit even for outperforming companies. Figure 10 Loss Ratio Trend, India Figure 11 Expense Ratio Trend, India 25 th, 50 th and 75 th Percentile 25 th, 50 th and 75 th Percentile Page 13 of 41

15 Figure 12 Combined Ratio Trend, India Figure 13 Operating Ratio Trend, India 25 th, 50 th and 75 th Percentile 25 th, 50 th and 75 th Percentile Figure 14 Combined Ratio by Company Segment, India 140% 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% Total Public Private 80% 70% 60% Page 14 of 41

16 Table 7 Performance by Company Segment, India Year Segmentation Loss Ratio Expense Ratio Combined Ratio Operating Ratio 2009 Total 85.5% 27.3% 112.8% 98.2% 2009 Public 88.3% 30.4% 118.7% 99.1% 2009 Private 80.3% 22.5% 102.8% 96.0% 2010 Total 93.4% 27.9% 121.3% 106.6% 2010 Public 97.0% 31.5% 128.6% 108.4% 2010 Private 86.9% 22.5% 109.4% 102.9% 2011 Total 88.9% 24.6% 113.5% 101.0% 2011 Public 89.2% 27.1% 116.3% 100.1% 2011 Private 88.2% 21.1% 109.3% 102.2% A significant difference between China and India s insurance operating performances is that China enjoys a reasonable profit margin from underwriting business and the investment income slightly increases the profit (Figure 7), while India s non-life industry largely relies on investment returns to offset the underwriting loss (Figure 12). The trend in India hasn t changed for many years, and during the years that the loss ratio turns out to be high, for example the year of 2010, the industry is very likely to suffer a deficit. Page 15 of 41

17 Segment Level: Peer Group Comparison Insurance markets in China and India have characteristics that are quite different from mature markets: Fierce competition for market share; Market share is skewed; Property lines, other than liability lines, are the major business; Lack of underwriting experience. A comparison would not be fair unless the above factors are taken into account. With further segmentation by company size and/or ownership, two aspects of performance, growth and underwriting, are reviewed and compared within each peer group. Growth is measured by the two-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in gross written premium, and underwriting is quantified by the two-year average combined ratio. Companies are identifies as outperformer, underperformer or average, benchmarked to the median within each segment. Table 8 Median Performance Metrics by Company Segment, China Segmentation Number of Companies Market Share 2-y CAGR: GWP 2-y Average Combined Ratio Large Domestic % 34.10% 84.00% Medium Domestic % 26.70% 93.40% Small Domestic % 24.10% % Foreign % 33.00% 93.50% In China, large domestic companies are still leading the market with stable premium growth and strong underwriting results, both related to scale of economy-existing business, extensive product lines, rich experience, strong network and good reputation. Ping An grows the fastest of the three, thanks to its strong distribution channels and innovations in product design. PICC appears to fall behind the other two, but it is making progress compared to previous years performance (combined ratio: 94.4% in 2009, 91.6% in 2010, 87.5% in 2011), and its market share is unbeatable in the short run (more than double the size of the second place Ping An). Outperforming medium-sized companies are growing even faster than the big three, with a slightly higher combined ratio. For small domestic companies, most of which just entered the market not long ago, the competition for market share is fierce; there is little room for profit and premium growth varies largely. Foreign companies, while they only account for 1% of the market share, are growing fast and making an underwriting profit on average. However, the top three foreign companies with the largest market shares are not growing at a desirable rate compared to their peers. Page 16 of 41

18 Table 9 Peer Group Comparison, China Outperforming Average Underperforming Benchmark is the median of the segment Segmentation Company 2011 GWP in Million CNY Growth: 2-y GWP CAGR Underwriting: 2-y Average Combined Ratio Large Domestic PICC Property & Casualty Co. Ltd % 89.40% Ping An Property & Casualty Insurance Co. Ltd % 84.00% China Pacific Property Insurance Co. Ltd % 83.30% China Life Property & Casualty Insurance Co. Ltd % 88.70% China Continent Property & Casualty Insurance Co. Ltd % 89.40% Sunshine Property & Casualty Insurance Co. Ltd % 92.10% Huatai Property Insurance Co. Ltd % 91.90% Tianan Insurance Co. Ltd % 97.70% Yong An Insurance Co. Ltd % 94.90% Medium Domestic Taiping General Insurance Co. Ltd % 93.10% Alltrust Insurance Co. Ltd % 90.50% Sinosafe General Insurance Co. Ltd % 93.70% Tianping Auto Insurance Co. Ltd % 86.50% Dubon Property & Casualty Insurance Co. Ltd % 99.00% Bank of China Insurance Co. Ltd % 96.40% Zheshang Property & Casualty Insurance Co. Ltd % 98.30% Minan Property & Casualty Insurance Co. Ltd % 95.70% Chang An Property & Casualty Insurance Co. Ltd % % Dazhong Insurance Co. Ltd % 91.00% Ancheng Property & Casualty Insurance Co. Ltd % % Small Domestic Zking Property & Casualty Insurance Co. Ltd % % Bohai Property Insurance Co. Ltd % % Dinghe Property Insurance Co. Ltd % 90.70% Cinda Property & Casualty Insurance Co. Ltd % % Yingda Taihe Property Insurance Co. Ltd % % China Huanong Property & Casualty Insurance Co. Ltd % % Page 17 of 41

19 Table 10 Peer Group Comparison, China (continue) Outperforming Average Underperforming Benchmark is the median of the segment Segmentation Company 2011 GWP in Million CNY Growth: 2-y GWP CAGR Underwriting: 2-y Average Combined Ratio Generali China Insurance Co. Ltd % % AIG Insurance Co. Ltd. China % 81.70% Allianz China General Insurance Co. Ltd % 98.30% Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance (China) Co. Ltd % 81.30% Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance Co. (China) Ltd % 66.70% Sompo Japan Insurance (China) Co. Ltd % 80.50% Liberty Insurance Co. Ltd % % Cathay Insurance Co. Ltd % % Foreign Lloyd's Insurance Co. (China) Ltd % 14.20% Samsung Property & Casualty Insurance Co. (China) Ltd % % Zurich Insurance Co. (Beijing Branch) % 73.20% Winterthur Insurance (Asia) Ltd. (Shanghai Branch) % 76.00% Chubb Insurance (China) Co. Ltd % % Hyundai Insurance (China) Co. Ltd % 78.40% Sun Alliance Insurance (China) Ltd % 93.50% Groupama Insurance (China) Co. Ltd % % LIG Insurance (China) Co. Ltd % 93.90% Aioi Nissay Dowa Insurance (China) Co. Ltd % 88.70% NIPPONKOA Insurance Co. (China) Ltd % % Page 18 of 41

20 In India, private companies are growing faster and have better underwriting results than public companies on average, as Table 12 shows. United and National outperform in both aspects as public companies. The private companies, HDFC Ergo, Cholamandalam and Shriram enjoy an underwriting profit and also grow at a decent rate, which is very impressive considering the overall performance of the industry. Segmentation Table 11 Median Performance Metrics by Company Segment, India Number of Companies Market Share 2-y CAGR: GWP 2-y Average Combined Ratio Public % 22.00% % Private % 38.70% % Table 12 Peer Group Comparison, India Outperforming Average Underperforming Benchmark is the median of the segment Sector Company 2011 GWP in Million INR Growth: 2-y GWP CAGR Underwriting: 2-y Average Combined Ratio Public Private New India % % United % % National % % Oriental % % ICICI Lombard % % Bajaj Allianz % % IFFCO Tokio % % HDFC Ergo % 99.40% Reliance % % Tata AIG % % Royal Sundaram % % Cholamandalam % 99.10% Shriram % 84.10% Future Generali % % Bharti AXA % % Universal Sompo % % Raheja QBE % % Page 19 of 41

21 Reinsurance Analysis-China In 2011, 16.8% of the gross written premium in China, or CNY 77.1 Billion, was ceded to reinsurers. Reinsurance margin is estimated by Reinsurance Margin = 1 Ceded Loss Ratio Estimated Acquisition Cost Using the following assumptions: Assumption 1 The acquisition cost for reinsurance is estimated to be 30% of the ceded premium, which is the average expense level of assuming businesses in China. Assumption 2 Earned Premium Direct and Assumed is estimated by = Gross Earned Premium (Direct and Assumed) Net Premium Earned Gross Written Premium (Direct and Assumed) Net Premium Written Figure 15 shows the relationship between reinsurance risk and margin from 2009 to 2011, where the risk is measured by the three-year standard deviation of ceded loss ratio. Not all points fall on the efficient frontier; for companies with the same level of risk, the returns spread out and vice versa. This indicates that reinsurers will benefit from analyzing reinsurance loss dates and sophisticated business selection. Figure 15 Reinsurance Risk and Return, China 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% Return: Reinsurance Margin -20% Risk: Ceded Loss Ratio St. Dev Page 20 of 41

22 Figure 16 shows that, on average, there was plenty room for profit in writing reinsurance in China, at least according to the financial data from 2009 to Figure 16 Reinsurance Margin vs. GLR Percentile, China 80% 60% Reinsurance Margin 40% 20% 0% 0% 50% 100% -20% -40% GLR Percentile Table 13 on the following page shows a detailed reinsurance analysis for each company. Page 21 of 41

23 Table 13 Reinsurance Analysis, China Segment Large Medium Small Foreign Specialty Company 3-y Total Gross Premiums Written 3-y Mean Gross Loss Ratio 3-y Mean Net Loss Ratio 3-y Mean Ceded Loss Ratio Std.Dev of Ceded Loss Ratio China Pacific Property Insurance Co. Ltd % 58.78% 50.26% 10.97% PICC Property & Casualty Co. Ltd % 67.25% 52.70% 36.29% Ping An Property & Casualty Insurance Co. Ltd % 56.88% 42.57% 20.27% Alltrust Insurance Co. Ltd % 62.17% 47.21% 9.46% Bank of China Insurance Co. Ltd % 62.30% 49.32% 13.32% China Continent Property & Casualty Insurance Co. Ltd % 58.22% 50.24% 4.16% China Life Property & Casualty Insurance Co. Ltd % 60.47% 39.88% 11.06% China United Property Insurance Co. Ltd % 71.41% % NA Dubon Property & Casualty Insurance Co. Ltd % 58.31% 53.50% 10.69% Huatai Property Insurance Co. Ltd % 56.00% 34.51% 17.25% Minan Property & Casualty Insurance Co. Ltd % 54.75% 30.29% 25.62% Sinosafe General Insurance Co. Ltd % 50.43% 56.64% 24.97% Sunshine Property & Casualty Insurance Co. Ltd % 59.41% 44.62% 10.07% Taiping General Insurance Co. Ltd % 56.93% 43.50% 11.33% Tianan Insurance Co. Ltd % 66.77% 38.24% 10.32% Tianping Auto Insurance Co. Ltd % 57.61% 46.61% 11.63% Yong An Insurance Co. Ltd % 62.22% 42.59% 10.06% Zheshang Property & Casualty Insurance Co. Ltd % 59.01% 20.04% 29.69% Anbang Property & Casualty Insurance Co. Ltd % 64.59% 17.43% NA Ancheng Property & Casualty Insurance Co. Ltd % 65.99% 38.32% 15.71% Bohai Property Insurance Co. Ltd % 69.50% 56.25% 7.57% Chang An Property & Casualty Insurance Co. Ltd % 72.45% 44.78% 11.93% China Coal Insurance Co. Ltd % 39.08% 17.94% NA China Huanong Property & Casualty Insurance Co. Ltd % 70.45% 57.53% 11.51% Cinda Property & Casualty Insurance Co. Ltd % 57.47% 22.40% % Dazhong Insurance Co. Ltd % 59.72% 39.57% % Dinghe Property Insurance Co. Ltd % 62.61% 60.97% % Taishan Property & Casualty Insurance Co. Ltd % 62.85% 19.01% NA Urtrust Insurance Co. Ltd % 80.23% 10.00% NA Yingda Taihe Property Insurance Co. Ltd % 82.22% 47.99% 5.99% Zking Property & Casualty Insurance Co. Ltd % 57.57% 51.92% 22.62% AIG Insurance Co. Ltd. China % 41.01% % NA Aioi Nissay Dowa Insurance (China) Co. Ltd % 36.13% 12.22% 2.05% Allianz China General Insurance Co. Ltd % 62.96% 45.51% 25.37% Cathay Insurance Co. Ltd % 67.05% 24.38% 24.98% Chubb Insurance (China) Co. Ltd % 65.31% 61.86% % Fubon Insurance Co. Ltd % 68.33% 23.52% NA Generali China Insurance Co. Ltd % 94.00% 71.17% 19.81% Groupama Insurance (China) Co. Ltd % 60.24% 17.00% 37.63% Hyundai Insurance (China) Co. Ltd % 74.28% 59.12% 88.41% Liberty Insurance Co. Ltd % 61.08% 40.61% 13.52% LIG Insurance (China) Co. Ltd % 78.53% 37.50% 12.82% Lloyd's Insurance Co. (China) Ltd % 0.00% 55.88% 0.36% Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance (China) Co. Ltd % 52.49% 41.67% 13.10% NIPPONKOA Insurance Co. (China) Ltd % 58.13% 23.02% 24.50% Samsung Property & Casualty Insurance Co. (China) Ltd % 76.62% 46.50% 12.92% Sompo Japan Insurance (China) Co. Ltd % 42.54% 30.01% 11.10% Sun Alliance Insurance (China) Ltd % 42.54% 36.77% 2.60% Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance Co. (China) Ltd % 37.58% 12.68% 7.51% Winterthur Insurance (Asia) Ltd. (Shanghai Branch) % 58.90% 37.17% 11.73% XL Insurance (China) Co. Ltd % % 0.56% NA Zurich Insurance Co. (Beijing Branch) % 48.92% 9.37% 41.03% Anhua Agricultural Insurance Co. Ltd % 64.80% 51.99% 6.12% Anxin Agricultural Insurance Co. Ltd % 59.35% 11.83% 7.35% China Export & Credit Insurance Corp % 94.93% 53.51% 4.74% Guoyuan Agricultural Insurance Co. Ltd % 80.83% 31.45% 32.89% Sunlight Agricultural Mutual Insurance Co. Ltd % 66.13% 53.37% 33.24% Page 22 of 41

24 Line of Business Level Table 14 is based on the financial reports of 17 large and medium-sized non-life companies, so it might not accurately depict the industry performance, but still helps show the overall trend in the most recent three years. Overall the rate level of motor lines is decreased over the recent three years. MTPL is operating at deficit while the profit from non-compulsory helps turn the entire motor line slightly profitable from underwriting. However, as the rate level decreases, it is challenging to remaining profitable in the largest line of business. The rate level of commercial property also has decreased and the profit margin from underwriting is quite insignificant. Table 14 Insurance Operation Metrics by Line of Business, China Line of Business Motor Vehicle Non-compulsory MTPL Commercial Property Accident & Health Guaranty Liability Cargo Credit Short-Term Health Year Combined C.o.V Combined Rate Level per 1000 C.o.V Rate Ratio Ratio Face Value Level % 2.5% % % 2.1% % % 1.7% % % 9.5% NA NA % 7.4% NA NA % 15.7% NA NA % 15.8% NA NA % 8.7% % % 4.5% % % 5.2% % % 7.3% % % 6.8% % % 11.5% % % 7.9% % % 5.5% % % 10.9% % % 2.7% NA NA % 1.5% NA NA % 2.4% NA NA % 8.7% NA NA % 7.7% NA NA % 4.3% NA NA % NA NA NA % NA NA NA % NA NA NA % NA NA NA % NA NA NA % NA NA NA Page 23 of 41

25 Motor Vehicle Insurance Motor Insurance Policy Comparison Motor Vehicle Insurance is the largest line of business by premium in both China and India. The mandatory part of motor vehicle insurance usually covers the third party liability of the driver, called Mandatory Third Party Liability (MTPL). The coverage varies by jurisdiction. Table 15 and Table 16 show the comparison of motor insurance coverage between China and India. Table 15 Motor Insurance in China and India: A Glance Country Mandatory Coverage: MTPL MTPL Pricing Factor Voluntary Coverage China Third party liability for bodily injury/death and property damage, with limited coverage listed in Table 16 Class of Vehicle, Driving History Non-compulsory: third party liability, loss to the vehicle, personal accident coverage for the driver and passengers India Third party liability for bodily injury/death and property damage; personal accident cover for owner-driver Geographic Zones, Class of Vehicle, Driving History Own Damage (OD): loss to the vehicle Table 16 Limit of MTPL Coverage Country Bodily Injury/Death Property Loss China India CNY 110,000 (USD 17,969) for death/disability; CNY 10,000 (USD 1634) for medical expenses Unlimited CNY 2000 (USD 327) INR 750,000 (USD 12,148) for motor vehicles; INR 100,000 (USD 1620) for two wheelers The unlimited coverage for bodily injury or death of India MTPL might be one of the reasons of its unprofitable operations. For China, the coverage limit of MTPL is too low and drivers have to get additional coverage from noncompulsory policies. Based on the data of 17 large and medium-sized domestic companies in 2010 and 2011, more than 72% of the motor premium comes from non-compulsory policies (72.3% in 2010, 72.6% in 2011) and we expect the percentage to continuously grow unless the regulator raises the limit of mandatory third party liability coverage. On March 30 th 2012, the State Council passed amendments to the Measures on the Compulsory Traffic Accident Liability Insurance for Motor Vehicles. These amendments, which took effect on May 1 st 2012, allow China-based foreign invested non-life insurance companies to provide MTPL insurance. Nine foreign insurers had obtained approval from the CIRC to Page 24 of 41

26 write MTPL as of June Seven of them have started operations, 4 and more are expected to enter this market in the future. Exposure: Number of cars Car ownership is a significant factor in non-life premium growth, especially in China. According to a report by Deloitte China 5, premiums from new car sales account for about 30% of the total motor premium. In the first eight months of 2013, car sales growth has remained steady; the need for cars is strong, but the sales are also influenced by policies on car pricing (including taxing on imported cars), car registration, etc. For example, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou have adopted a quota policy for car registration to address issues like traffic congestion and air pollution. Figure 17 Motor Vehicle Ownership, China Millions Total Motor Vehicles Cars Motorcycles Deloitte (China) Center for Financial Services: 2013 China Insurance Industry Outlook (in Chinese) Page 25 of 41

27 Figure 18 Newly Registered Motor Vehicles, China Millions Total Motor Vehicles Private Owned Commercial The India motor market has been experiencing weak sales for more than a year as rising fuel prices, higher interest rates and a slowing economy have discouraged people from buying, as shown in Figure 19 and Figure 20. Two-wheeler, other than car, is still the largest category of motor vehicles. Another issue in the India motor insurance market is uninsured motorists. Towers Watson India estimated that less than 40 million vehicles, out of the total 120 million automobiles and two-wheelers on Indian roads, had insurance coverage in 2009 and 2010 (data source: Insurance Information Bureau). According to estimation by the Times of India, by January 2013, 20%-35% of cars and 50%-70% two-wheelers were uninsured 6. Many policies lapse during renewal periods, and insurers lack the motivation to enforce the follow-up process because the low premiums, especially from two-wheeler policies, would not cover the expenses of this process. 6 Page 26 of 41

28 Figure 19 Motor Vehicle Ownership, India Millions Total Motor Vehicles Two-wheelers Cars Figure 20 Newly Registered Motor Vehicles, India Millions Total Motor Vehicles Two-wheelers-India Cars Page 27 of 41

29 Underwriting Performance The underwriting performance of China motor insurance has been discussed in the previous chapter. Based on the data of 17 large and medium sized companies (Table 17), the rate level of motor lines has been decreasing over the recent three years. MTPL is operating at deficit while the profit from noncompulsory helps turn the entire motor line slightly profitable from underwriting. However, as the rate level decreases, it is a challenge to remain profitable from the largest line of business. Table 17 Underwriting Summary of Motor Insurance, China Line of Business Motor Vehicle Non-compulsory MTPL Year Combined C.o.V Combined Rate Level per 1000 C.o.V Rate Ratio Ratio Face Value Level % 2.5% % % 2.1% % % 1.7% % % 9.5% NA NA % 7.4% NA NA % 15.7% NA NA % 15.8% NA NA In India, underwriting performance has improved in 2012 for both TP and OD coverage compared to 2011 (assuming similar loss development trend), especially for TP coverage. The discontinuation of the MTPL pool for commercial vehicles and the rise in the MTPL rate level has helped improve the underwriting result. Table 18 Underwriting Summary of Motor Insurance by Type of Motor Vehicle, India Motor Vehicle Category Number of Policies Total Premium OD Premium TP Premium Total Loss Ratio Excluding IBNR OD Loss Ratio Excluding IBNR TP Loss Ratio Excluding IBNR Private Car 16,123, ,776 99,862 22,914 61% 56% 59% 81% 87% Two-wheelers 36,109,120 28,117 13,931 14,186 49% 34% 36% 63% 60% Goods Carrying Vehicle 6,123,377 89,845 31,971 57,874 63% 47% 54% 71% 95% Passengers Carrying Vehicle 3,138,284 31,274 10,378 20,896 64% 41% 47% 75% 91% Special Type of Vehicle 2,044,554 11,795 7,514 4,281 72% 37% 27% 134% 143% Others 140, % 224% 82% 364% 128% Total 63,679, , , ,572 62% 51% 53% 76% 90% Page 28 of 41

30 Table 19 Underwriting Summary of Motor Insurance by Company Segment, India Year Sector Line of Business Net Loss Ratio Company Expense Ratio Estimated Combined Ratio Motor Total 87.84% 28.76% % Motor OD 61.33% 33.98% 95.31% Public Motor TP-non pool % 21.78% % Motor TP-pool % NA NA 2009 Motor Total 80.41% 23.24% % Motor OD 69.74% 25.28% 95.02% Private Motor TP-non pool % 16.21% % Motor TP-pool % NA NA Motor Total % 29.77% % Motor OD 63.83% 34.06% 97.89% Public Motor TP-non pool % 26.64% % Motor TP-pool % NA NA 2010 Motor Total 94.47% 23.17% % Motor OD 66.23% 24.47% 90.70% Private Motor TP-non pool % 20.02% % Motor TP-pool % NA NA Motor Total % 25.03% % Motor OD 61.82% 29.10% 90.92% Public Motor TP-non pool % 20.78% % Motor TP-pool % NA NA 2011 Motor Total % 20.89% % Motor OD 69.78% 22.48% 92.26% Private Motor TP-non pool % 20.45% % Motor TP-pool % NA NA Page 29 of 41

31 Catastrophe Exposure and Underinsurance The expected loss caused by natural disasters per year is 0.7% of the GDP for China and 0.3% of the GDP for India, according to Lloyd s Global Underinsurance Report 7. However, for both countries, the financing of post-disaster relief mostly comes from government and donations. China is having a public policy debate on how to cover the catastrophe exposure of commercial and residential properties. Currently there are very few requirements for acquiring insurance in China. According to Catlin 8, historically, no more than 5% of the economic losses could be recovered from insurance in China; the sum insured against insurable property value in Beijing is estimated at less than 10%. Residential Properties The housing market is hot in China, but not for the related insurance products. Homeowner s only counts for a tiny portion of the premium. Mortgage insurance on purchase of private residential property was no longer mandatory as of 2007, as most customers don t realize the important role of this coverage. By February 2013, metro Beijing had a population of Million, with a per capita housing area of 29 square meters. Using CNY 19,500 per square meter (average transaction price of new and second hand housing in 2012) as an approximation, an average resident in Beijing has a total of CNY 565,500 equity and/or debt in housing as a homeowner, more than 15 times of the average annual income (CNY 36,469 in 2012). If a major earthquake or other catastrophic event occurs, it will create huge financial shock to individuals as well as solvency problems for banks which issue the mortgages. Commercial Properties In an interview, 9 Dr. Guozhu Tuo, a professor at Capital University of Economics and Business in China, estimated that less than 10% of companies have bought commercial property insurance, even in developed regions like Guangdong and Zhejiang; on average about 6-7% of fixed assets are covered under insurance protection for large companies and an even lower percentage for small and medium-sized companies. Another issue for commercial property insurance is that the contracts are written using book value by the prevailing underwriting basis instead of replacement value, which actually leads to underinsuring. For insurance companies, the potential market size for commercial property is huge, but the competition is fierce and the premium rate has been decreasing over years, according to survey of market participants. Therefore sophisticated risk management practices including seeking proper reinsurance are essential for the insurers; otherwise a single catastrophic event in a metropolitan and/or industrial region would devastate the financial stability of the insurance industry. 7 ort_ pdf Page 30 of 41

32 Data of personal or commercial property insurance in India cannot currently be obtained, but the policies are mostly written in metropolitan areas. In addition, most government properties operate without being insured. 10 In 2013 non-life insurers in India presented a concept paper on catastrophe insurance to the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), highlighting the need for a pooling mechanism to deal with losses from catastrophic events. Though this paper is just an initial attempt, it is without a doubt that reinsurance will play an important role once the pool is built, as at least 60% to 65% of the risk would have to be reinsured according to an estimation of an insider Page 31 of 41

33 Appendix 1: Data Sources and Procedures Data Collection Data quality is fundamental to the success of this project, as scarcity of data is always a concern in underdeveloped insurance markets like China and India. For example, the regulatory agency in India didn t publish LOB level income statements until 2005, while data segmentation by LOB is essential to obtaining insights through analysis. A great amount of effort has been spent on data collection and cleaning to ensure the accuracy and consistency of the data and to supply more relevant details than global data providers. In addition, qualitative data has been collected to reflect dynamics and the most current trends in the market. Quantitative Data Collection Table 20 shows the sources of the quantitative data collected. As noted in Table 20, LOB level underwriting results are only reported by a few companies, limited to only the largest LOBs. More details are reported in Table 21 and Table 22 on the following page. Companies with incomplete underwriting details are excluded from industry and segment aggregated ratio calculations. Table 20 Quantitative Data Sources Country Data Category Data Content Details Available Sources China India General Statistics Exposure Financials General Statistics Exposure Financials Non-life Premium Company, all LOBs combined CIRC GDP Country National Bureau of Statistics of China Car Registration Province National Bureau of Statistics of China Car Ownership Country Ministry of Public Security of China Balance Sheet, Income Statement Company China Insurance Year Book LOB Underwriting Results Company (some), LOB (some) Company MTPL Underwriting Results Company (some) Insurance Association of China Non-life Premium Company, all LOBs combined IRDA GDP Country IRDA Car Registration Country Statistical Year Book of India Car Ownership Country Statistical Year Book of India Balance Sheet Company IRDA Income Statement Company, LOB (some) IRDA Motor Insurance Underwriting Results Company (some), TP and OD Company Motor Insurance Underwriting Results Industry, TP and OD Insurance Information Bureau, India Page 32 of 41

34 Table 21 is a list of Chinese companies that currently report LOB exposure and underwriting results. Table 21 Companies Reporting LOB Results: China Segment Large Domestic Medium Domestic Specialty Company PICC Property & Casualty Co. Ltd. Ping An Property & Casualty Insurance Co. Ltd. China Pacific Property Insurance Co. Ltd. Alltrust Insurance Co. Ltd. Bank of China Insurance Co. Ltd. China Continent Property & Casualty Insurance Co. Ltd. China Life Property & Casualty Insurance Co. Ltd. Dubon Property & Casualty Insurance Co. Ltd. Huatai Property Insurance Co. Ltd. Minan Property & Casualty Insurance Co. Ltd. Sinosafe General Insurance Co. Ltd. Sunshine Property & Casualty Insurance Co. Ltd. Taiping General Insurance Co. Ltd. Tianping Auto Insurance Co. Ltd. Yong An Insurance Co. Ltd. Zheshang Property & Casualty Insurance Co. Ltd. Anhua Agricultural Insurance Co. Ltd. For India, motor vehicle insurance data is usually reported without distinguishing between TP and OD coverage. A few companies report them separately in their annual reports, as shown in Table 22. Table 22 Companies Reporting TP and OD Results: India Segment Company United India Insurance Co. Ltd Public Private Oriental Insurance Co. Ltd. New India Assurance Co. Ltd. National Insurance Co. Ltd. Bajaj Allianz General Insurance Co. Ltd. ICICI Lombard General Insurance Co. Ltd. Reliance General Insurance Co. Ltd. Royal Sundaram General Insurance Co. Ltd. HDFC ERGO General Insurance Co. Ltd. Cholamandalam MS General Insurance Co. Ltd. Universal Sompo General Insurance Co. Ltd. Page 33 of 41

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