Where it all began. Where it all began (again) GIRO Convention. The Insurance Industry steps forward under the flag of Deng Xiao Ping

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1 GIRO Convention The Insurance Industry steps forward under the flag of Deng Xiao Ping China Non-Life Insurance Market David Campbell September 2008 Where it all began Where it all began (again)

2 Non-Life Insurance History In China People s Insurance Company of China ( PICC ) was established in Beijing, marking the development of insurance industry in China All insurance business came to a stop due to political turmoil th Central Committee of the Communist Party recognized the importance of restarting insurance business PICC restarted business. People s Bank of China ( PBOC ) was the regulatory body Ping An was established and headquartered in Shenzhen China Pacific Insurance Company ( CPIC ) was established and headquartered in Shanghai American International Group ( AIG ) was granted insurance licenses to operate in both life and non-life businesses in Shanghai, the first foreign company operating in China post <Insurance Law of The People s Republic of China> was published The China Insurance Regulatory Commission (the CIRC ) was established, replacing PBOC, to assume the responsibility of supervising insurance industry. CIRC directly reported to the State Council CIRC promulgated the <Administration of Foreign-funded Insurance Companies> CIRC promulgated the <Administration of Reserves for Non-life Insurance Business (Trial)> CIRC promulgated the <Administration of Insurance Provision and Premium Rates of Property Insurance Companies>. Market Potential Non-life Insurance 2007 Non-life Insurance Penetration vs. GDP Per Capita US Switzerland UK Germany South Korea Singapore Non-life % Taiwan Australia Penetration % % Japan 2% Premium Indonesia China Thailand Malaysia = 2% Hong Kong GDP 1% India 1% Philippines (US $) 100 1,000 China10, ,000 GDP per capita China India India Source: Swiss Sigma No. 3/2008 Market Potential Non-life Insurance Growth of Non-life Premium Income (RMB billion) % Business Mix of Non-life Insurance in China, 2006 Source: China Insurance Year Book Motor, 7 Enterprise Property, 1 Agriculture, 1% Cargo, Liability, Credit, 2% Others, 6% Source: China Insurance Year Book

3 Meeting the real insurance needs There is too much capacity for the foreseeable future.what we need is a major flood in Shanghai China CEO of a major global insurer

4 Source: China Insurance Year Book Non-life Insurance Market Share in 2007 CPIC, 11.2% China United, 8. CCIC, 4. Ping An, 10. Other Domestic Companies, 21. Foreign Companies, 1.2% PICC, 42. Company Time Stock Exchange Other Domestic Companies Market Share Tian An 3.51% An Bang 2.76% Yong An 2.6 Sunshine Property 1.9 Tai Ping 1.6 China Export and Credit 1.61% Du Bang 1.2 Hua Tai 1.2 Alltrust 0.72% An Hua Agriculture 0.6 Da Zhong 0.61% Tian Ping Auto 0.56% Hua An 0.4 China Life P&C 0.3 Bohai 0.36% Sunlight Mutual 0.26% BOC 0.2 Min An 0.22% An Xin 0.1 An Cheng 0.0 Huanong P&C 0.01% Chang An Liability 0.0 PICC Nov 2003 Hong Kong H Share Ping An Jun 2004 Mar 2007 Hong Kong H Share Shanghai A Share CPIC Dec 2007 Shanghai A Share

5 72% Profitability - PICC Overall profitability (% of net earned premium) % 6 3 Loss Ratio % Expense Ratio Underw riting Profit % 6 2 Investment Return % -1% 2 Source: PICC annual report Loss and Expense ratio % 12% % 86% 8 76% % 76% 62% 16% 1 26% 16% 26% 1 12% 16% 66% 71% 6 6 Acquisition Expense Ratio(Policy Acquisition Expense/Net EP) Loss Ratio(Net Paid Loss/Net EP) 2 46% % Motor Enterprise Property Accident Others Source: PICC annual report Profitability Ping An Overall profitability (% of net earned premium) Loss Ratio % 61% 41% 1 Total Expense Ratio Underw riting Profit % 2 Investment Return % 2 Source: Ping An annual report 12 Loss and Expense ratio 10 Acquisition Expense % % % % 11% % 1 6 Ratio(Policy Acquisition Expense/Net EP) Loss Ratio(Net Paid Loss/Net EP) Source: Ping An annual report Motor Non-Motor Accident & Health Profitability - CPIC Overall profitability (% of net earned premium) Loss Ratio % Total Expense Ratio % Underw riting Profit % Investment Return % Loss and Expense ratio % % % 4 46% % Source: CPIC annual report 6 71% % Motor Property Accident & Health Cargo Marine Liability Loss Ratio(Net Paid Loss/Net EP) Acquisition Expense Ratio(Policy Acquisition Expense/Net EP) Source: CPIC annual report

6 Distribution Channels 2007 Distribution Channels for all lines in China Salaried staff, 3 Loss Adjustor, Affinity Group (Bank), 3 Special Agency, Broker, Source: CIRC website Distribution Channels Distribution Channels for Auto Insurance Percentage of respondents using each channel Bank Auto Dealer Agent Auto Other Already Bought Auto Insurance Intending to Buy Auto Insurance Registration Office Percentage intending to use channel Distribution Channels for Personal Lines Bank Auto Dealer Agent Other Accident Insurance Domestic Property Source: PwC Research CIRC Actions & Actuarial Professions Regulatory Drives on Reserving and Pricing Stipulate rules requiring insurance companies to report profits under proper actuarial valuation, but granting 2-year grace period,effective from Jan 2005; Stipulate rules requiring companies to submit annual actuarial reports and statistics, effective from Jan 2005; Stipulate rules requiring actuary s sign off on quarterly solvency and year end reserve, effective from Jan 2006; De-regulate Motor tariff premium, but demanding actuary s sign off on product pricing, effective from Jan 2006; Issue circular on non-life business supervision, especially internal control and data quality, effective from Feb 2008; Stipulate rules requiring all insurance companies to have its own chief actuary, but allowing leaner rules for non-life insurers,effective from Apr 2008; Continuous Effort Establish Chinese actuarial education syllabus and examinations. Establish Chinese actuarial association Life and Non-Life Actuarial Practitioners in China number Establish insurance industry association. Organize regular industry seminars, forums and trainings Issue rules and guidance on actuarial reserving Chinese Actuarial Association - Fellow 111 Chinese Actuarial Association - Associate 640 Internationally qualified Fellow and unqualified practitioners 200 Beef up regulatory team and divide supervision responsibility Support IPO of Sate Own Enterprise insurance companies Subcontract external advisers and professors to conduct researches. Encourage discussions on solvency II Plan for Dynamic Solvency Test implementation

7 Thanks to Judy Cheng and her team at PricewaterhouseCoopers China for pulling together the data Ruth Lear and Barbara Green for the photographs, some of which appeared in their two walking guides to Shanghai: The Streets of Changing Fortune: six Shanghai walks Patterns of the Past: six more Shanghai walks David Campbell :

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