Reinsurance and the Capital Markets: Threat or Opportunity?

Transcription

1 Presentation to FLORIDA HURRICANE CATASTROPHE FUND TWELFTH ANNUAL PARTICIPATING INSURERS WORKSHOP Reinsurance and the Capital Markets: Threat or Opportunity? May 15, 2012

2 Introduction INTRODUCTION John Forney, CFA Managing Director, Public Finance Raymond James & Associates, Inc. 880 Carillon Parkway St. Petersburg, FL Ph: Financial Advisor, Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund Financial Advisor, Citizens Property Insurance Corporation Financial Advisor, Florida Insurance Guaranty Association Financial Advisor, California Earthquake Authority Financial Advisor, ProtectingAmerica.org Member of Investment Banking Team: Louisiana Citizens Property Insurance Corporation; Texas Windstorm Insurance Association; North Carolina Insurance Underwriting Association 2

3 U.S. Hurricane Modeled Loss for Coastal States 100 Year Residential PML By State TX $31 LA $21 MS $6 AL $5 NY $7 SC $7 FL $89 NJ $6 NC $8 MA $6 1 in 100 PML (Residential Lines) State $ in Billions Alabama 5 Connecticut 4 Florida 89 Georgia 4 Louisiana 21 Massachusetts 6 Mississippi 6 North Carolina 8 New Jersey 6 New York 7 South Carolina 7 Texas 31 Virginia 4 Source: RMS, based on the RMS RiskLink hurricane model v.11 assuming near term view. 3

4 Insurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk Challenges of the business model Difficult pricing algorithm for companies trying to compete and survive in cat space Catastrophe risk violates several key tenets of risk insurability Law of large numbers difficult to apply when numbers are small Modelers must therefore make many assumptions not based on historical observation Rational operating model in response Gross up modeled output expected loss significantly to account for uncertainty Go light on peak risk 4

5 Loss Models Suggest Dire Risks Hurricane loss models show 250 different events that could cause over $100 billion in insured losses in Florida 5

6 History Isn t Quite as Scary But history has no events that, even adjusted for today s dollars, produce anything close to $100 billion in insured losses 6

7 Results of These Challenges Reinsurance stocks have low price:book ratios 400% 350% 300% Price / Book as of 2/28/2012 Reinsurance 87.1% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% Feb-95 Feb-97 Feb-99 Feb-01 Feb-03 Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Source: SNL Financial Government participation in the property insurance market is growing Total loss exposure in the residual markets in 2010 was $757.9 billion per the Insurance Information Institute At least five different states have sponsored entities with post-event bonding capabilities 7

8 Bonding and Reinsurance: Competitors or Complements? Traditional catastrophe reinsurance spreads risk geographically and charges premiums now to pay for unlikely losses later Pros: (1) spreads risk out of state; (2) payment upfront Cons: (1) expensive; (2) far-away events can impact cost; (3) sends premium dollars out of state; (4) uncertain capacity and pricing Bonding programs retain risk geographically but spread it over time, and pay for losses only when they occur Pros: (1) lower premiums; (2) used only when needed; (3) beneficial economic impact of keeping more dollars in state Cons: (1) limited capacity; (2) viewed as subsidy; (3) uncertain market access; (4) repayment can extend far into future 8

9 Assessment/Risk Matrix for States With Bonding Capability Statewide Assessment Coastal Assessment Statewide Risk Florida; California Coastal Risk Louisiana; North Carolina Texas 9

10 Ask Me if I Care "I am quite happy to see this business under government control." --Jürgen Gräber, Executive Board Member, Hannover Re not all risks are amenable to private insurance states will always retain the position of insurer of last resort for large loss exposures where private insurance capacity is insufficient. -- Swiss Re Be careful what you ask for.. 10

11 Capital Markets Threat or Opportunity? All the cat bonds ever issued amount to about two weeks worth of issuance in the corporate bond market $16,000 Risk Capital Issued and Outstanding $14,000 Risk capital Amout (US$, Millions) $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 $1,991 $633 $846 $934 $1,140 $967 $1,220$1,729 $1,143 $4,683 $6,996 $3,392 $2,687 $4,334$4, Risk Capital Issued Risk Capital Outstanding Year-End Cat bonds represent less than 15% of the market for risk transfer, BUT 11

12 Capital Markets Opportunity or Threat? THE CHALLENGE Significant potential demand exists which is not being served by traditional reinsurance markets The value of unambiguous diversification to investors has increased If capital markets can fill this gap Incremental demand for Western European and U.S. exposures was shifted to the catastrophe bond market -- AonBenfield, January 2012 Towers Watson Capital Markets Closes on $11.95 Million Catastrophe Bond -- July,

13 Capital Markets Opportunity or Threat? THE OPPORTUNITY small o Use ILS funds as a source of capital In 2011 reinsurers accounted for more than half of all cat bond volume Establish ILS funds as a defensive measure THE OPPORTUNITY Big O Use capital markets to grow the overall market for risk transfer significantly 13

14 Presentation to FLORIDA HURRICANE CATASTROPHE FUND TWELFTH ANNUAL PARTICIPATING INSURERS WORKSHOP Reinsurance and the Capital Markets: Threat or Opportunity? May 15,