Increase of greenhouse gas concentrations,! the cause of the climate discussion!
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1 Increase of greenhouse gas concentrations,! the cause of the climate discussion! CATO-2 New Years Event, Feb 7, 2012!! Harro A.J. Meijer! Centre for Isotope Research (CIO)! Energy and Sustainability Research Institute Groningen (ESRIG)! University of Groningen! The importance of greenhouse gases for climate! sun! greenhouse gases (CO 2 )! Greenhouse gases occur naturally!! Well-known climatic infrarood effect! aarde without greenhouse gases: -20 C! With greenhouse gases: +15 C!
2 visible! thermal infra red! Human influence on Greenhouses gases! (1)!Water vapour.! No DIRECT anthropogenic influence,! but very dependent on climate: Feedbacks! (2)!Carbon dioxide, CO 2!! Natural trace gas, essential for life!! Uptake by photosynthesis, release by respiration and oxidation!! And by combustion of fossil fuels and by deforestation! (3)!Methane, CH 4!! Sources: wetlands, ruminants, gas mining, rice paddies,!! Destruction by atmospheric OH-radicals! (4)!Nitrous oxide, N 2 O!
3 Atmospheric CO 2 concentration! Metingen op Mauna Loa (Hawaii) CO 2 concentratie (ppm) All mm mm 14-17h mm 14-17h, v>5 m/s Lutjewad CO 2 concentration (ppm)
4 The "natural" concentration of CO 2! CO 2 concentratie (delen per miljoen) metingen aan luchtbelletjes uit ijs natuurlijk niveau Atmospheric methane-concentration! Pre-industrial: 700 ppb!
5 Synthetic/ non-natural gases. Example : SF 6! 7 SF 6 concentration (ppt) Antarctic firn Atmospheric mm Sturges et al (CDIAC, 2000) & Dutton et al. NOAA ESRL (1) Amount of fossil fuel combusted! Commercial! statistics! (2) Concentrations GHG in the atmosphere! (geo)physics,! global carbon cycle!
6 The increase of atmospheric CO 2 is half of what we expect! CO 2 concentratie (delen per miljoen) metingen Mauna Loa Uptake by oceans and vegetation! natuurlijk niveau deep ocean the earth in terms of carbon? 60 60? atmosphere 750 surface ocean ? ! 7.3!? fossil fuel > soil based on Climate Change 2001 IPCC land biota Pg carbon = g carbon reservoirs in Pg C natural cycle in Pg C/yr fossil fuel usage in Pg tc/yr
7 "State of the Art"! Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change! Fourth Assessment report, Climate Change 2007!
8 (1) Amount of fossil fuel combusted! Commercial! statistics! (2) Concentrations GHG in the atmosphere! (geo)physics,! global carbon cycle! Atomic & Molecular Physics,! Meteorology! (3) Radiative Forcing! Radiative Forcing! Radiation Flux Radiation Flux IN (visible) Greenhouse gas concentration increase IN (visible) Radiative Forcing OUT (infra-red) OUT (infra-red) atmosphere atmosphere EARTH EARTH
9 State of the Art RF (IPCC WG1 AR4 2007)! (1) Amount of fossil fuel combusted! Commercial! statistics! (2) Concentrations GHG in the atmosphere! (geo)physics,! global carbon cycle! Atomic & Molecular Physics,! Meteorology! (3) Radiative Forcing! (4) Consequences for Climate! Climatology!
10 The past 150 years: registration of world temperature! Is this the enhancement of the greenhouse effect???! Or is this natural (sun, volcanoes,...)???! Natural climate factors in the 20 th century! 1. Vulcanic eruptions 2. Solar activity 3. El Niño - Southern Oscillation
11 Quantification of known climate effects of the past century! 0.4 Mondiale temperatuureffecten (van Dorland, KNMI) relatieve temperatuurverandering ( C) el Niño! zon! som! vulkanen! Compare the sum of the known effects with the real historic temperature! 0.6 relatieve temperatuurverandering ( C) gemeten temperatuur! Enhanced greenhouse effect! som van bekende effecten!
12 observations! model without GHG! model with GHG! And now the last 15 years!
13 Agrees very well! Lean&Rind, Geoph Res Lett 2009! (1) Amount of fossil fuel combusted! Commercial! statistics! (2) Concentrations GHG in the atmosphere! (geo)physics,! global carbon cycle! Atomic & Molecular Physics,! Meteorology! (3) Radiative Forcing! (4) Consequences for Climate! Climatology! (5) Political-Societal Action (or lack of it)! Economy, Society,! Politics!
14 Summary, conclusions! The anthropogenic enhancement of greenhouse gas concentrations is beyond any doubt! The important role of greenhouse gases in the earth's climate is well-understood! It is very likely that continuation of greenhouse gas emissions at present pace will cause a substantial climate warming within a century! Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions is absolutely necessary to prevent too large, too rapid climate change! The responses of the carbon cycle to the ever-increasing burden of fossil fuel CO 2 need to be understood quantitatively! Summary, conclusions! The step from radiative forcing to climate effects is the most complicated one! However, there is almost complete consensus towards global warming! Climate is (unfortunately) reacting as a feed forward system to radiative forcing!
15 Finally: Some words about climate sceptics! "In the past there have been eras with over 500 ppm CO 2! The present situation is therefore not alarming at all"! Those were eras with a totally different climate regime"! The CO 2 -concentration increase is natural, and is not caused by fossil fuel combustion at all! Sure, and Aids is no viral disease! There are so many effects that infuence climate, those greenhouse gases are not important whatsoever! All right: cigarettes do not cause lung cancer, because asbestos does that! Warming? What warming? 1998 has been the warmest year gloablly, and since then climate has stabilised again, while the greenhouse gases kept on increasing! Wait till the next big El Niño! By the way, solar activity is probably approaching a long year minimum! The last slide! I don t believe in global warming..! Is all climate scepticism nonsense?!! No: serious remarks about:!- importance aerosols!!!!!- complicated role of clouds!!!!!- role of the sun!! But these are all incorporated in the peer-reviewed literature, and in the IPCC process! and thus not climate scepticism, but science.!
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