Informing the Debate on Population Ageing in New Zealand

Transcription

1 Informing the Debate on Population Ageing in New Zealand Mansoor Khawaja, Bill Boddington Statistics New Zealand Official Statistics Forum, Wellington, March 2010

2 OUTLINE Greying New Zealand: A society in transition Statistics New Zealand s work re informing the debate on population ageing: pop projections, reports, seminars and surveys Statistical volume on 65+ population: A living document A burgeoning older population:its size and characteristics Living longer, working later, and ageing in place Concluding thoughts.

3 Major reports/papers published by Statistics New Zealand The influence of fertility on New Zealand s population age structure (1977) The Elderly Population of New Zealand (1990) New Zealand Now: 65 Plus (1995). Disability Survey, 1996, 2001, 2006 Ageing and Retirement in New Zealand (1997) New Zealand Now: 65 Plus (1998 edition) (1998) Population Ageing in New Zealand (2000) Older New Zealanders - 65 and beyond (2004). Demographic Aspects of NZ's Ageing Population (2006). New Zealand's 65+ Population: A statistical volume (2007) Labour Force Participation of New Zealanders Aged 65 and Over, , (2009).

4 The influence of fertility on New Zealand s population age structure Quarterly Population Bulletin, In its concluding comment, this paper stressed: Over the next 25 years the dependency burden on the economically active population in New Zealand will decrease considerably as the large birth cohorts from the 'baby boom' years enter the labour force and the smaller post- boom cohorts are in the 'dependent youth category. However, like all the past demographic phases this 'favourable' dependency situation will be only temporary and will tend to reflect only the initial outcome of a demographic phenomenon which began over 40 years ago. After the turn of the century, when the 'boom' babies start leaving the labour force through retirement, there will be an increase in the burden of old-age dependency, the final outcome of this demographic phenomenon.

5 Greying New Zealand: The Way the Wind Blows 1966 Age group (years) Males Females Median Age 26 Median Age 33 Median Age Percent Percent Percent * 2006 Census: Median age = 35.9 years

6 Some Key Findings on Older New Zealanders Older population will more than double by 2051 The pace of growth will pick up after 2011, when baby-boomers born after 1945) start to reach age 65 years One in four New Zealanders will be over 64 by 2051 Sub-replacement fertility and a burgeoning older population is expected to lead to further greying of population By 2051 half of all New Zealanders will be older than 44 years, compared with a median age of 36 years at the 2006 census Ageing of the Aged: the older group will itself age. The 85+ group is projected to increase over five times, from less than 60 thousand to over 330 thousand Feminisation of the Aged: women outnumber men among the 65+ group, and the differential grows with increasing age As women outlive men, less than half of older women are married Aged dependency ratio ( the ratio of 65+ population to those aged years) will double over the next four decades Population ageing is less marked in New Zealand than in many OECD countries Within New Zealand, there is a remarkable variation in population ageing: The South Islanders are older than their northern cousins. Fewer elderly among ethnic minorities One in four senior citizens were born overseas

7 Some Key findings (continued) A growing proportion of older New Zealanders are extending their working life. In 2006, one third of 65+ group were in labour force. Senior citizens have lower income than their younger counterparts Home ownership is high among the older New Zealanders. Ageing in place: even at ages years, for a majority of New Zealanders the preferred option is own home One in three older people living in non-private accommodation Half the population over 84 lives alone Older citizens are living longer The elderly are the major users of hospital facilities Number of older migrants has doubled since 1979 Urban population older than rural dwellers Senior citizens are fairly mobile

8 Age Structure Changes: Fewer Children and More Senior Citizens (aged 65+) 1,600 (000) 65+ group will make up 24 of NZ residents by 2051, compared with 12% in ,400 1,200 1, Estimated Projected

9 Life Expectancy at Birth, New Zealand, Period Life expectancy at birth (years): Observed Projected for 2051 Men Women Men Women Projection series (1996-base) (2001-base) (2006-base) Increase

10 Upward revision of projected population aged 65 years and over, New Zealand, 2051 Projection Projected population base in base million 2001-base million 2006-base million Note. All series assume medium fertility, medium mortality and net immigration of 10,000 per annum during the projection period.

11 Living Longer : How long? NZ LIFE TABLES Males Females Percent surviving to age 65 86% 90% Life Expectancy at age 65 (years) PROJECTIONS Percent surviving to age 65 92% 94% Life expectancy at age 65 (years)

12 Ageing of the Aged, New Zealand Age group Increase (years) (percent) Sex ratio Population Age group as Number of a % of 65+ Pop females per 100 males , , , , , , , , , , Total 65+ Population 511,600 1,352, There were 531 Centenarians recorded at the 2006 Census (up from 399 in 2001). Note: Based on 2006-base national population projections, series 5 (assuming Medium fertility, Medium mortality and 10,000 net migration gain per year).

13 90Years and Over Percentage of Population living in non-private Dwellings, 2006 Census Male Female Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years 0-4 Years 5-9 Years

14 Spatial variations in population ageing 2006 Proportion of Population Aged 65+ Years 8-14% 15-20% 21-25% 26-29% 30% Proportion of Population Aged 65+ Years 8-14% 15-20% 21-25% 26-29% 30% +

15 Population ageing is more advanced in some Canterbury districts Territorial Median Age (yrs) % 65+ Pop Authority Selwyn Christchurch C Waimakariri Ashburton Hurunui Mckenzie Kaikoura Waimate Timaru CANTERBURY NEW ZEALAND

16 Working-age population takes on an older profile Population aged years: , ,000

17 Labour Force Participation, by age group, New Zealand, Percent Age group (years)

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19 Estimated Life Expectancy at Birth, by Ethnic Group, New Zealand, age (yrs) Life Expectancy at birth 65+ population (years) (Percent) Ethnic group Males Females Maori Pacific European/other* Asian Total, NZ * Includes New Zealander.

20 Concluding Thoughts Is population ageing here to stay? Constant vigilance on life expectancy, to ensure general accuracy of the 65+ population projections Living longer, working later Regional and ethnic diversity in ageing: Dynamics and implications Possible future directions For information on Demographic statistics and Projections, see: