Glenn R. Mueller, Ph.D. Professor University of Denver. Franklin L. Burns School of Real Estate & Construction Management &

Transcription

1 Real Estate Cycles Glenn R. Mueller, Ph.D. Professor University of Denver Franklin L. Burns School of Real Estate & Construction Management & Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Research

2 Why Real Estate Fits an Investment Portfolio = SIZE U.S. Real Estate vs. Other Asset Classes Source: Bonds = SIFMA, January 205; Equities = World Federation of Exchanges for Equities, January 205; U.S. Real Estate = Moody s Real CPPI, January 205. Commercial real estate are subject to real estate risks associated with operating and leasing properties. Additional risks include changes in economic conditions, interest rates, property values, and supply and demand, as well as possible environmental liabilities, zoning issues and natural disasters.

3 Five Key Macro Economic Factors GDP Growth Employment Growth 2 Population Growth = 0.9% Annual Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, March 205; Moody s, Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 205; Moody s, 205.

4 Five Key Macro Economic Factors Inflation Interest Rates Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 205; Moody s, March 205.

5 CO & Mountain Growth 8.00% Employment Growth 5Yr#/5Yr# 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% -6.00% -8.00% YTD US 9K/683K CO 2,762/42,86 Alamosa 8/-47 Gunnison 5/4 Eagle 288/848 Pitkin 9/552 San Miguel 22/28 Source: BLS.gov

6 Economic Outlook 9,000,000 Real Estate Occupancy is Demand Driven by Employment Growth Real Estate a Delayed Mirror of the Economy 8,500,000 8,000,000 7,500,000 7,000,000 6,500,000 6,000,000 5,500,000 5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 Industrial Office Retail Employment Source: CoStar Portfolio Strategy, January 205. Employment & Property Occupied Stock is the top 54 MSA s covered by PPR

7 Market Cycle Analysis Physical Cycle Demand & Supply drive Occupancy Occupancy drives Rental Growth

8 Occupancy Market Cycle Quadrants Phase 2 - Expansion Phase 3 - Hyper-supply Demand/Supply Equilibrium Point Long Term Occupancy Average Phase - Recovery Phase 4 - Recession Source: Mueller, Real Estate Finance 995 Time

9 Occupancy Phase 2 - Expansion Rents Rise Rapidly Toward New Construction Levels Long Term Average Occupancy 5 4 Below 3 Inflation 2 Rental Negative Growth Rental Growth High Rent Growth in Tight Market Demand/Supply Equilibrium 0 Cost Feasible New Construction Rents Rent Growth Positive But 2 Declining 3 Physical Market Cycle Characteristics Phase 3 Hyper-supply 4 -Below Inflation & 5 Negative Rent Growth 6 Phase - Recovery Time Phase 4 - Recession

10 Occupancy Phase 2 - Expansion Phase 3 Hyper-supply Historic National Office Rental Growth.0% Long Term Average Occupancy -3.0% 0.3% %.7% 4 2.7% % 6.4% 0.5% % % 0.0% 30 Year Cycle - Periods % 3.6% 3.3% % 6 Phase - Recovery Time Phase 4 - Recession

11 Occupancy Phase 2 - Expansion Phase 3 Hyper-supply Historic National Industrial Rental Growth % 8.3% Long Term Avg Occupancy 3.0% 6 5.% % 6.8% 0 8.5% 2 5.9% 4.6% 3 4.8% 4 0.8% -2.% % 4 0.4% 5 4.6% 30 Year Cycle - Periods % 6-0.4% Phase - Recovery Time Phase 4 - Recession

12 National Property Type Cycle Locations Phase 2 Expansion Phase 3 Hyper-supply Retail st Tier Regional Mall Industrial Warehouse Hotel Full-Service Hotel Ltd. Service Apartment Office Downtown 2 Health Facility Retail Factory Outlet Retail Power Center LT Average Occupancy Industrial R&D Flex Retail Neighborhood/Community Office Suburban Phase Recovery 2nd 205 Source: Mueller, 205 Phase 4 Recession

13 Office Market Cycle Analysis 2nd Quarter, 205 Albuquerque Chicago East Bay Long Island Norfolk N. New Jersey Stamford Wash DC Wilmington 2 3 Cincinnati Cleveland Houston- Los Angeles Milwaukee Orange County San Antonio Ft. Lauderdale Hartford Kansas City Las Vegas+ Memphis Philadelphia Phoenix Richmond St. Louis+ NATION Baltimore Boston Detroit+ Indianapolis+ New Orleans Oklahoma City San Diego Tampa+ Atlanta+ Columbus Denver Jacksonville+ Miami+ Minneapolis Orlando Palm Beach+ Sacramento+ Seattle 7 Dallas FW New York Pittsburgh Portland Riverside Charlotte Raleigh-Durham 8 9 Austin Honolulu Nashville+ Salt Lake San Jose+ San Francisco 0 LT Average Occupancy Source: Mueller,

14 Norfolk Orange County Industrial Market Cycle Analysis 2nd Quarter, 205 East Bay Jacksonville+ Memphis New Orleans Sacramento Wash DC+ Richmond 6 Boston Houston Kansas City New York+ N. New Jersey+ Raleigh-Durham+ San Antonio St. Louis Tampa+ NATION 7 8 Charlotte Chicago+ Columbus Las Vegas+ Nashville+ Pittsburgh Portland Seattle 9 0 Austin+ Cincinnati Honolulu+ Indianapolis- Miami+ Minneapolis+ Palm Beach+ Riverside Salt Lake San Diego San Jose+ Dallas FW- Denver Los Angeles+ San Francisco LT Average Occupancy Stamford Baltimore Hartford Long Island Oklahoma City Philadelphia Phoenix Atlanta Cleveland+ Detroit Ft. Lauderdale Milwaukee+ Orlando Source: Mueller,

15 Apartment Market Cycle Analysis 2nd Quarter, 205 LT Average Occupancy Source: Mueller, Baltimore Chicago Cincinnati Cleveland- Columbus- Dallas FW- East Bay Ft. Lauderdale Indianapolis- Jacksonville Kansas City- Honolulu Las Vegas Long Island Los Angeles Memphis- Miami- Detroit+2 0 Milwaukee- Minneapolis- New Orleans- N. New Jersey Orange County- Orlando Philadelphia Phoenix Pittsburgh- Portland Riverside+ Sacramento San Antonio San Francisco- San Jose- Seattle- St. Louis- NATION Atlanta Austin- Boston Charlotte- Denver- Hartford+ Houston- 2 3 Nashville- Stamford Tampa- New York- Oklahoma City Palm Beach- Raleigh-Durham- Richmond- Salt Lake- San Diego+ Wash DC- Norfolk

16 Retail Market Cycle Analysis 2nd Quarter, Oklahoma City St. Louis Cleveland+ Detroit+ Jacksonville+ Kansas City+ Memphis Milwaukee Norfolk Orange County Philadelphia Riverside Atlanta Charlotte Chicago Columbus Las Vegas Phoenix Sacramento Stamford Hartford+ Indianapolis+ New Orleans Palm Beach+ NATION 6 7 Cincinnati+ Dallas FW Ft. Lauderdale Nashville N. New Jersey+2 Richmond San Antonio East Bay Minneapolis San Diego Seattle Source: Mueller, LT Average Occupancy Baltimore Denver+ Houston Long Island Los Angeles Orlando+ Portland Tampa Austin+ Miami Pittsburgh Salt Lake San Jose Wash DC Boston Honolulu New York Raleigh-Durham San Francisco

17 Cincinnati Norfolk 2 Hartford Riverside Stamford 3 Hotel Market Cycle Analysis Cleveland Kansas City Orange County Phoenix Richmond San Antonio 4 2nd Quarter, Columbus Sacramento 6 7 Dallas FW Indianapolis Memphis Milwaukee Oklahoma City Raleigh-Durham Salt Lake St. Louis Atlanta Chicago New Orleans N. New Jersey Detroit Jacksonville 8 Baltimore Charlotte Denver East Bay Ft. Lauderdale Las Vegas+ Los Angeles Minneapolis Nashville Orlando Philadelphia San Diego San Jose Seattle Tampa Wash DC NATION 9 0 Austin Boston Honolulu Houston Miami New York Palm Beach Pittsburgh+ Portland San Francisco Source: Mueller, Long Island 3 LT Average Occupancy 4 5 6

18 970s Cycle Factors Driving The First Half Cycle (5 Year) Strong Demand from the 960s that stopped Recession 974 Capital Flow - Mortgage REITs produced oversupply Factors Driving The Second Half Cycle (5 Year) Baby Boom Generation Goes to Work = Demand Capital Flow Shut Down = no supply = Lenders Recover Markets tighten and reach peak occupancy 979 (5% vacancy)

19 8% 970s Office Demand & Supply Demand Supply 6% 4% 2% Oversupply Years Baby Boomers Go To Work 0% Source: FW Dodge, CB Commercial, BLS, Mueller

20 980s Cycle Factors Driving The First Half Cycle (5 Year) 979 Tight market pushed rents & prices up Inflation pushed prices higher 98 Tax Act attracted taxable investors Thrift Deregulation allowed capital to flow Factors Driving The Second Half Cycle (5 Year) 986 Tax Act slowed taxable investors - not tax free Poor stock market attracted Pension & Foreign capital Rising R.E. prices masked poor income returns

21 0% 8% 6% 4% 2% 980s Office Demand & Supply Demand Oversupply Years Supply 0% Source: FW Dodge, CB Commercial, BLS, Mueller

22 990s Cycle Factors Driving The First Half Cycle (5 Year) Moderate / stable demand growth (99 recession minor) Oversupply & Foreclosures shut down construction Excess space Absorbed Markets Recover Factors Driving The Second Half Cycle (5 Year) Moderate Demand growth Continued Oversupply Absorbed - Return Performance improved Construction Constrained caused rents & prices to rise More Efficient Markets matched supply to demand

23 3.0% 2.5% 2.0%.5% 990s Office Demand & Supply Demand Oversupply Absorbed Supply Demand Supply Matched.0% 0.5% 0.0% Source: FW Dodge, CB Commercial, BLS, Mueller

24 2000s Cycle Demand Globalization - created more stable U.S. economy Job Growth out of Technology Change 2.8 million population growth per year for 0 years Baby boomers entered highest income earning years second home market wave Echo boom children college, first job, & renting Aging population boomers START retiring in 204 Employment Growth drives commercial demand

25 2000s Cycle Supply Constraint Public Markets make R.E. Capital markets efficient Economically Driven capital - low spec construction Research Watchdogs Data Available Constrained Supply (economically driven capital) construction labor harder to find Steel & concrete costs increasing infrastructure problems constrain growth Feedback loop keeps demand & supply balanced Greater transparency Faster reaction to demand slowdown

26 Stock Growth Recovering Supply growth started increase in 203 from a 42 year low Source: Costar Portfolio Strategy, January 205

27 2000s US Office Demand & Supply 4.0% Office Demand & Supply 3.0% 2.0%.0% 0.0% -.0% % -3.0% Supply Reacted to Demand Slow Down Source: Property & Portfolio Research, Grubb & Ellis, Mueller 2009.

28 National Property Type Cycle Forecast Phase 2 Expansion Phase 3 Hyper-supply Industrial Warehouse Hotel Ltd. Service 2 Office Suburban 3 Industrial R&D Flex Retail Neighborhood/Community Retail Factory Outlet Health Facility Office Downtown Retail Power Center LT Average Occupancy Hotel Full-Service Retail st Tier Regional Malls+ 3 Apartment Phase Recovery 2nd 206 ESTIMATE Source: Mueller, 205 Phase 4 Recession

29 Occupancy Cycle and Rent Growth 22% 8% Office Forecast % 9 0% 6% 2% % 88-6% 87-0% 86 RENT Growth % OFF OCC Source: Costar Portfolio Analytics, Mueller March 205.

30 Office Market Cycle FORECAST 2nd Quarter, 206 Estimates Chicago Long Island Milwaukee Wash DC 2 Houston- N. New Jersey Stamford Albuquerque Cincinnati East Bay Hartford Kansas City Los Angeles Norfolk St. Louis+ San Antonio 3 4 Aspen Baltimore Boston Denver Las Vegas New Orleans Oklahoma City Atlanta+ Dallas FW+2 Cleveland Detroit+ Ft. Lauderdale Indianapolis Memphis Orange County Philadelphia Phoenix Richmond San Diego Seattle Tampa NATION Jacksonville+ Miami Minneapolis Palm Beach+ Pittsburgh Sacramento+ San Jose+ Summit Charlotte Columbus New York Orlando Portland Riverside 8 9 Austin Honolulu Nashville Raleigh-Durham+ San Francisco 0 Salt Lake Source: Mueller, LT Average Occupancy 4 5 6

31 Occupancy Cycle and Rent Growth 0% 8% Industrial Forecast % 4% 94 2% 93 0% 92-2% -4% 9-6% 90-8% 89 RENT Growth % IND OCC Source: Costar Portfolio Analytics, Mueller March 205.

32 Industrial Market Cycle FORECAST 2nd Quarter, 206 Estimates Norfolk Orange County Stamford Baltimore New Orleans Oklahoma City Philadelphia Phoenix Sacramento Long Island Richmond 5 6 East Bay Hartford Kansas City Memphis Wash DC+ Atlanta Boston Cleveland+ Detroit Jacksonville Milwaukee+2 Orlando 7 8 Ft. Lauderdale Houston New York+2 Raleigh-Durham San Antonio St. Louis Tampa+ NATION 9 Aspen Austin Charlotte Chicago+ Columbus Las Vegas Nashville N. New Jersey+ Pittsburgh Seattle 0 Summit Denver Cincinnati Honolulu+ Indianapolis Los Angeles Miami+ Minneapolis+2 Palm Beach Portland Salt Lake San Diego San Francisco San Jose 2 Dallas FW- Riverside 3 LT Average Occupancy Source: Mueller, 205

33 Occupancy Cycle and Rent Growth 5% 4% Apartment Forecast % 2% 95.0 % 0% % -2% -3% % -5% 92.0 RENT Growth % APT OCC Source: Costar Portfolio Analytics, Mueller March 205.

34 LT Average Occupancy 2 3 Apartment Market Cycle FORECAST 4 5 2nd Quarter, 206 Estimates Source: Mueller, 205 Summit Aspen Baltimore Detroit+2 East Bay Honolulu Las Vegas Riverside St. Louis- 0 Chicago Cincinnati- Columbus- Hartford Indianapolis- Jacksonville Long Island Los Angeles Memphis Milwaukee- 2 Atlanta Boston Cleveland Dallas FW Ft. Lauderdale Kansas City Miami Minneapolis- Orange County Palm Beach- New Orleans New York- N. New Jersey- Orlando- Philadelphia Portland Sacramento San Diego San Francisco- 3 Austin- Charlotte Denver- Houston- Nashville Norfolk- Oklahoma City Richmond Tampa Phoenix Pittsburgh Raleigh-Durham- Salt Lake San Antonio San Jose Seattle- Stamford Wash DC- NATION

35 % 4% Occupancy Cycle and Rent Growth Retail Forecast % % -2% % % % 9.5 RENT Growth % RET OCC Source: Costar Portfolio Analytics, Mueller March 205.

36 Retail Market Cycle FORECAST 2nd Quarter, 206 Estimates Summit 2 3 Cleveland+ Detroit+ Memphis Milwaukee Philadelphia 4 5 Norfolk Oklahoma City Riverside St. Louis Dallas FW Ft. Lauderdale Hartford+ Las Vegas+ Nashville N. New Jersey+2 Orange County NATION 6 7 Atlanta Charlotte Chicago Cincinnati Columbus Jacksonville Kansas City+ Phoenix Sacramento San Antonio Stamford Baltimore Denver+ Houston Long Island Los Angeles Orlando+ Seattle LT Average Indianapolis+ New Orleans Palm Beach+ Portland Richmond Tampa Aspen East Bay Minneapolis San Diego Wash DC Source: Mueller, 205 Austin Boston Honolulu Miami New York Pittsburgh+ Raleigh-Durham Salt Lake San Francisco San Jose 2 Occupancy

37 Occupancy Cycle and Rent Growth 0% Hotel Forecast 7% 7% 69% 4% 67% % 65% -2% -5% 63% 6% 59% -8% 57% -% 55% RENT Growth % HOTEL OCC Source: Costar Portfolio Analytics, Mueller March 205.

38 Cincinnati Norfolk 2 3 Richmond 4 Hotel Market Cycle FORECAST 5 Columbus Hartford Riverside Stamford 2nd Quarter, 206 Estimates Detroit Dallas FW Indianapolis Milwaukee Oakland Phoenix Salt Lake St. Louis 6 7 Cleveland Kansas City Memphis Oklahoma City Orange County Raleigh-Durham Sacramento San Antonio Baltimore Philadelphia LT Average Occupancy Jacksonville Summit Aspen Boston Charlotte Chicago Denver East Bay Ft. Lauderdale Honolulu Houston Los Angeles Miami Atlanta Las Vegas New Orleans N. New Jersey+2 NATION Minneapolis Nashville Orlando Portland San Diego San Francisco San Jose Seattle Tampa Wash DC Austin Long Island Palm Beach Pittsburgh Source: Mueller, New York 4 5 6

39 Financial Cycle $Capital$ Flows affect Prices

40 Market Cycle Capital Flow Impact Capital Flows to Existing Properties Cost Feasible Rents Reached Hyper Supply LT Occupancy Avg. Capital Flows to New Construction

41 Bond Values DROP as Interest Rates Rise 0 Year Treasury Yields e 0-Year Treasury Yield Average Total Return Peak = 3.9% Average Total Return = 8.7% Average Yield = 6.02% Forecast Average Total Return =.9% Source: U.S. Treasury Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, May 205; Moody s Forecast, 205.

42 st 08 3rd 08 st 09 3rd 09 st 0 3rd 0 st 3rd st 2 3rd 2 st 3 3rd 3 st 4 3rd 4 st 5 US CAPITAL Big Pic MARKET TRENDS Individual Por tfolio Entity CPPI* $700 $600 $500 $400 billions Prices & Volume Levels Fully Recovered $ $ $ $0 0 '0 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '0 ' '2 '3 '4 200% RMCB Western Slope 00% Mountain Markets 0% $50,000, $30,000, $0,000, $90,000, $70,000, $50,000, YoY Change -00% Gross Sales '0 '02 Volume $30,000, '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '0 ' '2 '3 '4 $0,000, $(0,000,000.00) Source: Real Capital Analytics, March 205

43 Billions Portfolio Buyers Dominate Trades Q 02Q 03Q 04Q 05Q 06Q 07Q 08Q 09Q 0Q Q 2Q 3Q Individual Portfolio Source: Real Capital Analytics April 203

44 0% 5% 0% 5% 20% 25% 30% 35% st 08 2nd 08 3rd 08 4th 08 st 09 2nd 09 3rd 09 4th 09 st 0 2nd 0 3rd 0 4th 0 st 2nd 3rd 4th st 2 2nd 2 3rd 2 4th 2 st 3 2nd 3 3rd 3 4th 3 st 4 2nd 4 3rd 4 4th 4 st 5 2nd 5 Rocky Mountain Commercial Sales as a % of Residential Sales Alamosa Eagle Garwood Glenwood- Carbondale San Miguel Alamosa

45 PRICE TRENDS BY PROPERTY TYPE CBD-Office Apartment Retail Industrial 25 Sub-Office Hotel '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '0 ' '2 '3 '4 Source: Real Capital Analytics, Inc., May 205.

46 MOST ACTIVE MARKETS OF 204 Rankings Market 204 Sales Volume ($M) YOY Change Manhattan $ 42,467,23,792 $42,467 7% 7% Los Angeles $ $25,682 25,682,322,089 4% 4% Chicago $ $5,823 5,822,85,65 9% 9% San Francisco $ $5,344 5,343,566,857 6% 6% Dallas $ $5,262 5,262,9,97 7% 7% Boston $ $3,70 3,70,277,228 33% 33% Atlanta $ $3,54 3,54,406,60 22% 22% Houston $ $,039,039,070,777-22% -22% NYC Boroughs $ $9,780 9,780,268,209 35% 35% Seattle $ $8,654 8,654,24,666-6% -6% Denver $ $8,558 8,558,83,90 23% 23% San Jose $ $8,366 8,366,40,59 2% 2% Phoenix $ $7,749 7,749,46,37 7% 7% DC $ $6,767 6,767,222,466 6% 6% No NJ $ $6,67 6,67,92,079 2% 2% San Diego $ $6,606 6,606,35,574 0% 0% Orange Co $ $6,253 6,252,58,865 39% 39% Austin $ $6,40 6,40,367,050 6% 6% East Bay $ $5,900 5,900,050,33 32% 32% Miami $ $5,583 5,582,63,288 3% 3% Hawaii $ $5,257 5,256,672,24 97% 97% Philadelphia $ $5,254 5,254,27,534 45% 45% DC VA burbs $ $5,70 5,70,254,565-40% -40% Inland Empire $ $4,556 4,556,058,320-0% -0% Tampa $ $4,464 4,464,45,976 42% 42% Charlotte $ $4,383 4,382,873,454 29% 29% Orlando $ $4,22 4,22,42,94-5% -5% Broward $ $4,90 4,89,509,030 59% 59% Minneapolis $ $4,0 4,00,633,698 20% 20% Raleigh/Durham $ $3,963 3,963,493,2 54% 54% Portland $ $3,73 3,73,238,550 28% 28% Nashville $ $3,47 3,46,89,623 23% 23% DC MD burbs $ $3,407 3,406,82,90-6% -6% Baltimore $ $3,363 3,362,529,692 66% 66% San Antonio $ $3,025 3,025,246,04 36% 36% Las Vegas $ $2,8 2,80,898,232-24% -24% Palm Beach $ $2,700 2,699,522,633 74% 74% Detroit $ $2,558 2,557,867,204 22% 22% Jacksonville $ $2,53 2,530,56,85 50% 50% Central CA $ $2,375 2,375,082,579 28% 28%

47 Property Price Cycle Recovering Historic Cap Rates Source: Real Estate Research Corporation Chicago, February 205.

48 Wide Yields Attracting Capital Spread Between Cap Rates and 0-Year Treasury by Property Type Source: Real Capital Analytics, Q 205.

49 PLENTY OF CAPITAL FROM ALL SECTORS Buyer Composition User/Other Private Public Equity Fund Inst'l Cross-Border

50 Debt Capital: Credit Conditions Improving Composition of Lenders 204

51 HEIGHTENED COMPETITION AMONG LENDERS

52 GROWING INFLUENCE OF CROSS-BORDER CAPITAL Top Trade Route Flows Double From

53 2008 Physical and Financial Cycle 205 Physical Cycle Demand & Supply affect occupancies drives rental growth Employment & Demand growth resumed 2Q 200 Supply growth slowest in 43+ years (203 bottom) supply increasing 204&5 RE growth phase (depending on market & property type) 205 Financial Cycle Capital flows affect prices stock market rebound 203, volatile 204 & 205! Real estate safest investment alternative , pushed prices up Prices dropped 2008, 2009 = buying opportunities now? Debt financing harder creating buying opportunity for Cash Buyers Differentiate residential versus commercial real estate to your investors!

54 QUESTIONS?

55 Topics Covered Economic Fundamentals 5 key Macro Economic Drivers of Real Estate Performance Economic Base Analysis Real Estate Physical Cycle Fundamentals Demand for Real Estate Supply of Real Estate Occupancy Cycles Rent Cycles Real Estate Financial Cycle Fundamentals Interest Rates Capital Flows Real Estate Prices Cap Rates