The Economic and Real Estate Outlook. Kenneth T. Rosen
|
|
|
- Darren Cobb
- 7 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 The Economic and Real Estate Outlook Kenneth T. Rosen
2 Positives Private sector job growth Strong auto sales Very low interest rates, QE3 Global Monetary Easing Improvement of for-sale housing market / Price surge Energy independence Declining oil and gasoline prices Two year budget agreement Negatives Geopolitical events: ISIS (Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia), Ukraine, Gaza, Pakistan, Iran, North Korea, Libya Emerging market slowdown: China, Fragile Five, and numerous other countries Interest rate normalization Credit and asset bubble? Tax increases, entitlement explosion 2
3 Path to Recovery: 2014 and 2015 Moderate and Choppy Recovery 65% Double Dip 20% Strong Recovery 15% 3
4 U.S. Employment Growth Private Sector Thousands of Jobs Estimated job losses from peak to trough: -8,818, Recovery since February 2010: +10,034,000 Monthly Absolute Change Aug-13: +180,000 Sep-13: +153,000 Oct-13: +247,000 Nov-13: +272,000 Dec-13: +86,000 Jan-14: +166,000 Feb-14: +201,000 Mar-14: +200,000 Apr-14: +278,000 May-14: +228,000 Jun-14: +260,000 Jul-14: +213,000 Aug-14: +134, : 210,000 per month avg Latest data as of August 2014 Sources: BLS, RCG 4
5 Percent Job Losses in Post-WWII Recessions 1% % -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% Great Recession -7% Number of Months After Peak Employment Sources: BLS, RCG 5
6 Unemployment and Underemployment Rates 20% Bachelor s Degree and Higher 3.2% Less Than High School 9.1% 15% Underemployment Rate Unemployment Rate 10%.0% 5% 6.1% 0% Latest data as of August 2014, seasonally adjusted Source: BLS 6
7 Federal Reserve Assets Trillions $5.0 $4.5 $4.0 $3.5 $3.0 $2.5 $2.0 $1.5 $1.0 $0.5 $ Latest data as of September 24, 2014 Sources: Federal Reserve, RCG 7
8 3-Month T-Bill vs. 10-Year T-Bond Artificially low 16% 14% % 10% 8% 6% 10-Year Yield Movement since Sept. 1, % 3.2% 3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep 4% 2% 0% Year 3-Month % 0.01% Latest data as of September 25, 2014; green lines are 2014 forecast Sources: Federal Reserve, RCG 8
9 10-Year TIPS Real Interest Rates Artificially low 1.0% Movement since Sept. 1, % 4% 3% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep 2% 1% 0.50% 0% -1% Latest data as of September 25, 2014 Source: Federal Reserve 9
10 10-Year T-Bond Spread vs. German 10-Year Government Bond Basis Points Latest data as of September 25, 2014 Sources: Federal Reserve, ECB, RCG 10
11 10 Year T-Bond Forecast 6% 5% 4% 3% 4.80% 3.73% 3.22% 2% 1% Forward Curve 4/25/2013 Forward Curve 9/25/2014 RCG Base 0% f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f Forward Curve 4/25/ % 2.04% 2.37% 2.67% 2.93% 3.22% Forward Curve 9/25/ % 2.77% 3.25% 3.49% 3.63% 3.73% RCG Base 3.03% 3.30% 4.10% 4.80% 4.70% 4.80% Sources: Federal Reserve, RCG 11
12 U.S. Budget Deficit to GDP 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Note: Latest data as of 2Q14; green line indicates 2014 forecast Sources: Office of Management and Budget, BEA, RCG
13 Consumer Confidence by Income Class Conference Board Survey Index 140 < $15,000 $15,000-$24, $25,000-$34,999 $35,000-$49,999 0 > $50,000 >$5, Latest data as of August 2014, seasonally adjusted Source: The Conference Board 13
14 Consumer and Producer Prices Contained for the moment 18% 16% 14% % 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% CPI PPI 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% % -0.5% -1.0% A N F M A N F M A N F M A Latest data as of August 2014 Note: Annual figures from 2005 forward are December year-over-year data Source: BLS 14
15 Economic Outlook for 2014 and 2015 Moderate and Choppy Recovery (65%) Economic Growth GDP Growth: Employment Unemployment Rate: Employment Growth: Jobs Created: Interest Rates and Inflation T-Bill: T-Bond: CPI: Stock Market S&P 500: Dow Jones Industrials: f 2015f 2.8% 1.9% 2.3% 2.5% 7.8% 7.0% 5.9% 5.5% 1.7% 1.8% 2.0% 1.9% 2.2 mil. 2.4 mil. 2.7 mil. 2.6 mil. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.2% 1.8% 3.0% 3.3% 4.1% 1.9% 1.2% 2.0% 2.8% 1,426 1,848 1,979 2,078 13,104 16,576 17,200 18,060 15
16 U.S. Employment Growth August 2014 vs. August 2013 Moderate and Choppy Recovery Growth Rate -1.9% to -5% -0.9% to 0% 0% to 0.9% 1% to 1.9% 2% to 4.9% Source: BLS, not seasonally-adjusted preliminary year-over-year growth rates 16
17 Change in Employment Ranked by Year-over-Year Percentage Change in Employment Data is seasonally adjusted as of August 2014 Sources: BLS, RCG Yr/Yr Growth August 2014 Absolute (000) Percent North Dakota % Houston % Austin % Orlando % Dallas % Miami % San Francisco % San Jose % Seattle % Inland Empire % San Diego % Minneapolis % Phoenix % Denver % New York % Oakland % Atlanta % Sacramento % U.S. Average (in mil.) % Los Angeles % Boston % Tampa % Orange County % Philadelphia % Chicago % Pittsburgh % Washington, D.C % Detroit % 17
18 Change in Employment Ranked by Jobs Recovered as a Percentage Change from Trough, August 2014 Jobs Recovery from Trough Absolute (000) Percent North Dakota % Austin % San Francisco % San Jose % Houston % Dallas % Orlando 6.3.9% Seattle % Denver % Miami % Oakland % Inland Empire % Phoenix % San Diego % Atlanta % Minneapolis % New York % Tampa % Orange County % Detroit % Los Angeles % Sacramento % Boston % U.S. Average (in mil.) % Chicago % Washington, D.C % Pittsburgh % Philadelphia % Data is seasonally adjusted as of August 2014 Sources: BLS, RCG 18
19 Commercial Real Estate Capital Markets
20 Current Conditions Little new construction, except for apartments Moderate demand recovery Libor life support but low absolute long-term rates are available High investment demand for stabilized properties; lower demand for broken deals Real estate still cheap compared to 10-year Treasuries Broken deals and deleveraging opportunities Mortgage restructuring opportunities 20
21 Cap Rates by Product Type % 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% Apartment Office Industrial Retail 3% Latest data as of 2Q14; ACLI, adjusted Sources: ACLI, RCG 21
22 Cap Rate Spreads vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield Basis Points Apartment Office Industrial Retail Latest data as of 2Q14; ACLI, adjusted Sources: ACLI, RCG 22
23 Investment Performance REITs vs. S&P 500 Index Total Return 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% 92 37% 36% 37% 33% 36% 31% 33% 28% 28% 23% 20% 21% 15% 14% 15% % 16% % 8% 10% 11% 3% 5% 1% 4% % -3% 00-9% -% 02-22% % 08 4% -39% 29% 29% 26% -31% 10 18% 15% 16% 9% 0% 2% 14 30% 14% 10% Latest data as of September 24, 2014 Sources: S&P, Bloomberg, RCG DJ Wilshire REIT Index S&P 500 Index 23
24 REIT Valuation Premium / Discount to Underlying Asset Value 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2.0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% Latest data as of September 2014 Sources: Green Street Advisors, RCG 24
25 New Domestic Commercial Real Estate Debt Originations Billions $600 $500 $508 $400 $345 $406 $359 $393 $300 $244 $200 $181 $184 $100 $82 $119 $ f Sources: MBA, RCG 25
26 Domestic Commercial MBS Gross Amount Issued Billions $240 $228.5 $200 $160 $166.5 $198.4 $0 $80 $40 $0 $28.8 $17.2$17.5 $17.9 $14.0 $7.6 $40.4 $77.7 $58.5 $48.7 $67.3 $52.1 $77.8 $92.6 $.2 $11.6 $2.7 $32.7 $48.4 $86.1$ f Sources: Commercial Mortgage Alert, RCG 26
27 U.S. Investment Sales Volume Billions $600 $571.0 $500 $423.0 $400 $362.0 $360.0 $368.0 $300 $200 $100 $106.0 $130.0 $2.0 $174.0 $67.0 $147.0 $233.0 $299.0 $ Latest data through 2Q14, annualized Source: RCA 27
28 Real Estate Cycle Clock - Fundamentals United States Overshooting/ Demand Shortfall Phase Decline Phase 9 Equilibrium 3 Class C Malls 3:30 Multifamily Rental / Ltd. Service Hotels 7:30 Residential Land 7:00 Growth Phase Outlet Center / Single Family / Full Service Hotels / Resorts 6:30 6 Absorption Phase Power Center 4:00 Suburban Office 4:30 Neighborhood Strip 5:00 Extended Stay 5:30 CBD Office / Industrial / Class A Malls 6:00 28
29 Office Construction Value of Construction Put-in-Place Billions (2009$) $0 $110 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $ Latest data as of 2Q14, seasonally adjusted annual rate Sources: Census, RCG 29
30 Office Employment Growth Annual Change Thousands of Jobs 2,000 1,500 Monthly Change in Employment (Thou.) Sep-13: +44 Dec-13: +9 Mar-14: +46 Jun-14: +96 Oct-13: +64 Jan-14: +46 Apr-14: +82 Jul-14: +49 Nov-13: +70 Feb-14: +85 May-14: +61 Aug-14: +52 1, ,000-1,500-2, Latest data as of August 2014 Sources: BLS, RCG 30
31 Office Availability Rates Downtown and Suburban 30% 25% 20% 16.8% 15% 10%.7% 5% 0% Downtown Suburban Latest data as of 2Q14 Sources: C&W, RCG 31
32 U.S. Downtown Office Rent Growth 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Latest data as of 2Q14 Sources: C&W, Grubb & Ellis, Various Local Brokers, RCG 32
33 Private Market Total Return (NCREIF) Office 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% %4.1% % -8.0% -11.4% % % 3.9% % 19.6%.2% 13.6% 14.1% 6.2% %5.7% 04.0% 19.2% 19.5% 20.5% % -19.1% % 13.8% 9.5% 10.3% 9.9% 14 Latest data as of 2Q14, year-over-year Sources: NCREIF, RCG 33
34 Renter Households Proportion of Total Households 38% 36% 34% 32% 30% Source: Census 34
35 Multifamily Rental Housing Starts Units (Thousands) f 15f 16f17f 18f Note: 2014 through 2018 data are forecasted Sources: Census, RCG 35
36 U.S. Rental Apartment Vacancy Rate (5+ Units) 14% % 10% 8% 6% 8.2% 4.4% % 2% 0% Census Vacancy Rate (5+ Units) MP/F Investment Grade Vacancy Rate Latest data as of 2Q14 Sources: Census, NMHC 36
37 Household Formation HH Formation (000s) 2,500 2, : 1.8 million 2008: 878, : 453, : 406, : 861,000 20: 1.2 million 2013: 1.4 million 1,500 1, Sources: Census, RCG 37
38 Young Adults Aged Living with Parents Millions Sources: Census, RCG 38
39 Employment Growth by Age Group Annual Change 4% 3% 2% 1% Years Years 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% Latest data as of August 2014; not seasonally adjusted Sources: BLS, RCG 39
40 U.S. Rental Inflation Annual % Change % 10% 8% 6% CPI Rental Component Professionally Managed Apartments 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Latest data as of 2Q14 Sources: BLS, NMHC 40
41 Year-over-year Change in Apartment Fundamentals, August 2014 Year-over-year Change in Year-over-year Change in Year-over-year Change in Revenue per Available Unit Occupancy Effective Rent Denver 10.1% 0.3% 9.7% Atlanta 8.8% 1.0% 7.6% San Francisco 7.1% 0.3% 6.7% Seattle 6.6% -0.1% 6.6% Las Vegas 6.4% 1.7% 4.4% Houston 5.9% 0.6% 5.2% Riverside 5.9% 0.7% 5.2% Phoenix 5.8% 0.7% 5.0% Los Angeles 5.6% 0.7% 4.8% Orlando 5.4% 0.5% 4.9% Dallas/Ft. Worth 5.1% 0.1% 5.0% Orange County 5.1% 1.0% 4.0% San Diego 5.0% 0.1% 4.9% Tampa 4.9% 0.8% 4.1% Austin 4.4% -0.1% 4.5% Chicago 3.7% 0.6% 3.1% Charlotte 3.3% -0.1% 3.4% Manhattan 3.0% 0.7% 2.2% Boston 2.7% 0.2% 2.5% Washington, D.C. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Sources: Axiometrics and Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Miller Samuel, RCG 41
42 Private Market Total Return (NCREIF) Multifamily 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 10.3% 8.8% 5.8% -1.4% 1.7% 21.2% 14.1%.1% 11.5%.9% 13.0% 13.0% 11.7% 11.7% 8.7% 9.4% 8.8% 8.9% 14.6% 11.4% -7.3% 18.2% 15.5% 11.2% 10.4% 9.9% -20% % Latest data as of 2Q14, year-over-year Sources: NCREIF, RCG 42
43 Retail Space Construction Value of Construction Put-in-Place Billions (2009$) $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $ Latest data as of 2Q14, seasonally adjusted annual rate Sources: Census, RCG 43
44 Real Retail Sales Growth Excluding Autos Annual % Change 10% 8% 6% 1.5% Nominal Monthly % Change 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% A N F M A N F M A N F M A % 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Latest year-over-year change data as of 2Q14, monthly change is as of August 2014 Source: Census 44
45 Overall Comparable Store Sales vs. Luxury Store Sales Y-o-Y% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Overall Luxury 4Q: 1.3% 7.8% 1Q13: 1.7% 4.1% 2Q13: 3.0% 4.1% 3Q13: 2.4% 3.6% 4Q13: 1.0% 3.6% 1Q14: 1.0% 6.6% Overall Comparable Stores Luxury Latest data as of 1Q14; data excludes Wal-Mart, which stopped reporting monthly sales in May 2009 Source: ICSC 45
46 Retail Vacancy Rate 14% % 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% f Green line is forecast Sources: Valuation International, Viewpoint, SNL, RCG 46
47 Super-Stores and Internet Sales Cannibalization Percentage of total sales by retailer type 60% 50% 40% Grocery Stores 30% Department Stores % 10% 0% Warehouse Clubs and Super-Stores Internet Sales Latest data as of June 2014 Source: Census 47
48 Private Market Total Return (NCREIF) Retail 25% 23.0% 20% 15% 10% 5% 20.0% 17.1% 14.9% 13.7% 13.8% 13.5%.9%.5%.9% 13.4% 13.5%.6% 11.6% 8.5% 9.5% 7.8%6.7% 6.0% 6.0% 4.8% 4.9% 4.0% 0% -5% -1.9%-2.2% -4.1% -10% -15% % Latest data as of 2Q14, year-over-year Sources: NCREIF, RCG 48
49 Hotel Construction Value of Construction Put-in-Place Billions (2009$) $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $ Latest data as of 2Q14, seasonally adjusted annual rate Sources: Census, RCG 49
50 Hotel Occupancy Rate 70% 65% 60% 65.5% 65.2% 65.7% 64.5% 63.7% 64.0% 63.2% 62.3% 62.4% 60.9% 62.0% 63.7% 63.3% 61.3% 59.8% 59.2% 59.2% 63.4% 63.1% 63.2% 60.4% 63.3% 62.3% 61.4% 59.9% 57.5% 55% 54.5% % 50% 45% 40% f Latest data year-to-date as of December 2013; 2014 data are forecasted Sources: Smith Travel Research, RCG 50
51 RevPAR Growth Annual % Change 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Latest data year-to-date as of August 2014 Sources: Smith Travel Research, RCG 51
52 Hotel Performance by Market Segment August 2014, year-over-year Segment Occupancy RevPAR Luxury UP 1.2% UP 8.8% Upper Upscale UP 2.3% UP 8.5% Upscale UP 3.5% UP 9.4% Midscale with F&B UP 3.9% UP 8.9% Midscale without F&B UP 4.9% UP 9.5% Economy UP 4.0% UP 9.4% Total U.S. Industry UP 3.8% UP 9.4% Note: Data is year-over-year as of August 2014; measured against August 2013 Source: Smith Travel Research 52
53 Industrial Warehouse Construction Value of Construction Put-in-Place Billions (2009$) $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $ Latest data as of 2Q14, seasonally adjusted annual rate Sources: Census, RCG 53
54 U.S. TEU Growth Annual % Change 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% 6.1% 4.8% 9.6% 9.0% 8.0% 1.2% 8.5% 8.5% 6.7%7.0% % 6.6% 11.0% 6.5% 8.6% 5.8% 1.3% -5.7% -17.0% % 2.9% 2.9% 2.3% 0.7% Latest data is year-over-year estimate as of August 2014 Sources: AAPA, PortTracker 54
55 Industrial Vacancy Rate % 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 2010: 10.3% 2011: 9.2% 20: 8.3% 2013: 7.5% 1Q14: 7.4% 2Q14: 7.2% 2014f: 6.9% % Latest data as of 2Q14; Green line is forecast Sources: CBRE, C&W, RCG 55
56 Private Market Total Return (NCREIF) Industrial 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 9.9% 8.7% 2.0% -3.9%-4.5% -0.8% 15.9% 15.9% 13.6% 14.0%.3% 11.6%.1% 9.3% 8.2% 7.6% 6.7% 20.3% 17.0% 14.9% -5.8% 15.2%.7%.6% 11.2% 9.4% -15% -20% % Latest data as of 2Q14, year-over-year Sources: NCREIF, RCG 56
57 Investment Implications Core Real Estate Buy high quality REITs on a substantial dip (10-20%) Buy Office, Medical Office, Industrial, Apartments, Senior Housing, Data Centers & Retail at 5% - 7% or above cap rates, 80% replacement costs or below Monetize mature core assets if cap rate is below 4% by sale or like-kind trade or refinance Lock in low debt costs with assumable debt Short long term treasuries Short China high-end residential real estate Short Euro 57
58 Investment Implications Value-Add Debt for transitional assets Buy vacancy in strategic markets Reposition assets for upgraded use Buy distressed assets from European lenders Mezzanine debt to fill capital gap Development deals Apartments Adaptive re-use Opportunistic Single family land / housing Select office and industrial development Grocery-anchored real estate development 58
59 Rosen Consulting
U.S. Economic, Capital Markets. and Self-Storage Market Overview
U.S. Economic, Capital Markets and Self-Storage Market Overview 2011 Economic Tug-of-War Positives Retail Sales excl. auto and gas well above pre-recession levels U.S. GDP higher than 2006 levels The Private
CBRE Cap Rate SURVEY. second Half 2014. A CBRE RESEARCH Publication
CBRE Cap Rate SURVEY A CBRE RESEARCH Publication United States Overview Key National Observations Commercial real estate in the U.S. continues to be very attractive. The investment landscape also remains
Self-Storage Investment Trends to Watch. April 16, 2015
Self-Storage Investment Trends to Watch April 16, 2015 Economic Outlook Underpins Self-Storage Sector Hiring Makes Steady Gains Supports Broader Economic Performance Quarterly Job Growth (Millions) 0.9
CBRE Cap Rate Survey. A CBRE Publication. First Half 2014. Click to Enter
CBRE Cap Rate Survey A CBRE Publication pg 2 pg 8 pg 17 pg 26 pg 36 pg 41 pg 45 Click to Enter United States Key National Observations The CBRE Cap Rate Survey for mid-year 2014 points to meaningful declines
National Property Type Cycle Locations. Hotel Full-Service Hotel Ltd. Service Retail 1st Tier Regional Mall. Retail Neighborhood/Community
Cycle Monitor Real Estate Market Cycles Fourth Quarter 0 Analysis February 0 Physical Market Cycle Analysis of All Five Major Property Types in More Than 0 MSAs. U.S. GDP growth of.% was more than double
Houston Economic Outlook. Presented by Patrick Jankowski Vice President, Research
Houston Economic Outlook Presented by Patrick Jankowski Vice President, Research www.houston.org Follow me on Twitter @pnjankowski Read my blog: wwwhouston.org/economy/blog Connect with me: www.linkedincom/in/pnjankowski
Singing the housing. Christopher Thornberg Principal
Singing the housing blues Christopher Thornberg Principal Beacon Economics is an independent consulting firm providing a variety of economic support services to clients across the Western US. Our Services
CRE PRICE RECOVERY CONTINUES WITH STRONG SHOWING IN NOVEMBER HEALTHY DEMAND FOR CRE BUOYS NET ABSORPTION AND PRICE GAINS
CCRSI RELEASE JANUARY 2015 (With data through November 2014) CRE PRICE RECOVERY CONTINUES WITH STRONG SHOWING IN NOVEMBER HEALTHY DEMAND FOR CRE BUOYS NET ABSORPTION AND PRICE GAINS This month's CoStar
The Housing recovery is here! Should you buy a house?
The Housing recovery is here! Should you buy a house? William Wheaton Department of Economics Center for Real Estate MIT January, 2014 IAP 1). Why there will be a recovery. - Household Formation unusually
The Lodging Conference 2011
The Lodging Conference 2011 Business Intelligence Tim Hart 9/26/2011 TravelClick provides expert solutions so that hotels can optimize performance, grow revenue, and create a stronger brand. 9/26/2011
CBRE Cap Rate Survey. A CBRE Publication. February 2012. Click to Enter
CBRE Cap Rate Survey A CBRE Publication n This ssue: pg 2 pg 5 pg 12 pg 16 ndustrial pg 23 s pg 27 pg 30 Click to Enter n This ssue: United States nvestor demand for US commercial real estate assets expanded
COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS*
COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) 2 Fixed Rates Variable Rates FIXED RATES OF THE PAST 25 YEARS AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE LENDING RATE - 5 YEAR* (Per cent) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS*
COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) 2 Fixed Rates Variable Rates FIXED RATES OF THE PAST 25 YEARS AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE LENDING RATE - 5 YEAR* (Per cent) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
COMMERCIAL PROPERTY PRICE INDICES SPRING FORWARD IN MAY
CCRSI RELEASE JULY 2015 (With data through May 2015) COMMERCIAL PROPERTY PRICE INDICES SPRING FORWARD IN MAY RECORD LEVELS OF CRE SPACE ABSORPTION SUPPORTED BROAD PRICE GAINS This month's CoStar Commercial
CAPITALIZATION RATES BY ASSET TYPE
RATES BY ASSET MAY 2013 O V E R V I E W With the firming of the US economy, C&W has seen investors start to gradually move up the risk-reward spectrum. After having been focused primarily on core assets
National Property Type Cycle Locations. Industrial R&D Flex Retail Factory Outlet. 4th Qtr 2015. Source: Mueller, 2016
Cycle Monitor Real Estate Market Cycles Fourth Quarter 0 Analysis February 0 Physical Market Cycle Analysis of All Five Major Property Types in More Than 0 MSAs. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) continued
HIDDEN RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES NAREIM - DALLAS CHRIS MACKE GLOBAL RESEARCH AND CONSULTING
HIDDEN RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES NAREIM - DALLAS CHRIS MACKE GLOBAL RESEARCH AND CONSULTING Question 1 Where are we in the commercial real estate cycle? Property Fundamentals & Pricing: Much like the temperature
What Will 2015 Hold for the Seattle Economy & Residential Real Estate Market?
What Will 2015 Hold for the Seattle Economy & Residential Real Estate Market? A Presentation to Windermere Wall Street Group Presented by: Matthew Gardner Managing Principal 415 Westlake, Seattle 524 Second
More Liquidity in Debt and Equity Markets to Spur Higher Investment Activity
-morenews release for immediate release Contact: Erin Mays Phone: 312.698.6735 Email: erin.mays@grubb-ellis.com Grubb & Ellis Predicts Commercial Real Estate Leasing Recovery to Proceed in 2011, Multi
State of the Commercial Real Estate Markets
State of the Commercial Real Estate Markets The commercial real estate markets are slowly beginning the recovery process. KENNETH T. ROSEN IN SOME WAYS similar to the residential bubble, the commercial
Introduction to Commercial Real Estate: An Overview (415) 713-0213
Introduction to Commercial Real Estate: An Overview By www.the The-Commercial-Group.com (415) 713-0213 www.the-commercial-group Group.com Agenda Legal Obligations Commercial Leasing Business Opportunities
PRESS RELEASE. Home Price Gains Ease in April According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Home Price Gains Ease in April According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices New York, June 30, 2015 today released the latest results for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure
CREW, SAN ANTONIO PRESENTATION SPENCER G. LEVY, AMERICAS HEAD OF RESEARCH
CREW, SAN ANTONIO PRESENTATION SPENCER G. LEVY, AMERICAS HEAD OF RESEARCH April 7, 2015 THE BIG PICTURE FORWARD GLOBAL TRANSACTION VOLUME FY 2014 Total transaction volume worldwide totaled $714B in 2014.
Property Stocks Attractive Following Sell-Off
Jonathan Litt Founder & CEO Property Stocks Attractive Following Sell-Off Historically, following knee jerk sell-offs in response to a rise in interest rates, REITs deliver double-digit returns within
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
August 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Frequently Asked Questions 1. What do the S&P/Case-Shiller 1 Home Price Indices measure? The indices are designed to be a reliable and consistent benchmark
Eurozone Economic dashboard
Eurozone Economic dashboard Our Economic Dashboard is designed to help investors understand the true state of the eurozone economy. It is not meant to serve as a direct prediction regarding the future
Subject to Change 1 As of 8/13/14
Atlanta Hawks Wed. 29-Oct-14 @ Toronto 7:30 PM Mon. 19-Jan-15 Detroit 2:30 PM Sat. 1-Nov-14 Indiana 7:30 PM Wed. 21-Jan-15 Indiana 7:30 PM Wed. 5-Nov-14 @ San Antonio 8:30 PM Fri. 23-Jan-15 Oklahoma City
FRBSF ECONOMIC LETTER
FRBSF ECONOMIC LETTER 01-1 April, 01 Commercial Real Estate and Low Interest Rates BY JOHN KRAINER Commercial real estate construction faltered during the 00 recession and has improved only slowly during
Comprehensive Course Schedule
Comprehensive Course Schedule The following designation and certificate courses are sponsored by BOMI International and BOMA Local Associations. Note that all BOMI International courses are also available
More than Just Curb Appeal Factors that affect the Housing Market
Insight. Education. Analysis. M a r c h 2 0 1 5 More than Just Curb Appeal Factors that affect the Housing Market By Kevin Chambers Not only is buying a house usually the largest purchase anyone will make,
Economic indicators dashboard
AS OF NOVEMBER 17, 2015 Economic indicators dashboard Vist www.blog.helpingadvisors.com for the full commentary of the Economic Indicators Dashboard. MOST RECENT 3-MO. trend TYPICAL range EXTREME range
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
The Fourth Quarter Starts with Broad-based Declines in Home Prices According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices New York, December 27, 2011 Data through October 2011, released today by S&P Indices
DEUTSCHE ASSET & WEALTH MANAGEMENT REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK
Research Report DEUTSCHE ASSET & WEALTH MANAGEMENT REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK Second Quarter 2013 Economic Outlook Business and consumer spending to drive recovery Quantitative easing beginning its expected unwinding
ASSESSING RISK OF SENIOR LIVING OVER-SUPPLY A LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE
TOPICS ASSESSING RISK OF SENIOR LIVING OVER-SUPPLY A LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE The ratio of new openings to existing inventory ratio (the new openings ratio ) in combination with the ratio of units currently
Multifamily Market Commentary July 2014 The Nation s Aging Multifamily Housing Stock
Multifamily Market Commentary July 2014 The Nation s Aging Multifamily Housing Stock Although America s population is rising at its slowest pace in more than 70 years, and it has taken 76 months for employment
Home Price Increases Slow Down in February According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Home Price Increases Slow Down in February According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices New York, April 26, 2016 S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P/Case-Shiller
PRESS RELEASE. Widespread Gains in Home Prices for February According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Widespread Gains in Home Prices for February According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices New York, April 28, 2015 today released the latest results for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices,
MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan
MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan Mortgage Originations Estimates Revised Higher MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: February 2016 In our most recent forecast, we presented revisions to our mortgage
IN THEOR Y, PUBLIC INVESTMENTS IN MASS TRANSIT CAN MAKE URBAN
Can Public Transportation Increase Economic Efficiency? M AT T H E W D R E N N A N A N D C H A R L E S B R E C H E R IN THEOR Y, PUBLIC INVESTMENTS IN MASS TRANSIT CAN MAKE URBAN economies more efficient
National Economic Indicators. September 28, 2015
National Economic Indicators September 8, Table of Contents GDP Release Date Latest Period Page Table: Real Gross Domestic Product Sep-- 8: Q- Real Gross Domestic Product Sep-- 8: Q- Decomposition of Real
Zurich Staff Legal. Experienced. Collaborative. Focused on Results.
Zurich Staff Legal Experienced. Collaborative. Focused on Results. Staff Legal How We Deliver We are located where you need us, with more than 250 attorneys in our national network of 48 offices that cover
The Impact of Interest Rates on Real Estate Securities
The Impact of Interest Rates on Real Estate Securities The challenge for real estate securities investors is determining how monetary policy and interest rates affect prices and returns. Highlights Not
The sustained good news in home prices over the past five months makes us optimistic for continued recovery in the housing market.
PRESS RELEASE Home Prices Continued to Rise in August 2012 According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices New York, October 30, 2012 Data through August 2012, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices
What Will Drive Growth in the Washington Area Economy Going Forward?
/4/25 Cardinal Bank & George Mason University 23 rd Annual Economic Conference What Will Drive Growth in the Washington Area Economy Going Forward? Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and
U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY. http://www.dallasfed.org
U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY Index of Leading Economic Indicators 140 Index 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Recession Leading Index (Aug-18-release, Jul = 124.3) Source:
U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY. http://www.dallasfed.org
U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 1-month % change 1.5 Nominal Personal Consumption Expenditures 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0-1.5 Aug-29-release, Jul = 0.33 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 1-month % change 1.0 Real Personal
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
National Home Prices Are Close to the 2009Q1 Trough According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices New York, February 22, 2011 Data through December 2010, released today by Standard & Poor s for
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Annual Rates of Change Continue to Improve According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices New York, October 25, 2011 Data through August 2011, released today by S&P Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller
INDUSTRIAL OUTLOOK: Manufacturing, E-Commerce, Supply Chains and the Future of Industrial CRE
INDUSTRIAL OUTLOOK: Manufacturing, E-Commerce, Supply Chains and the Future of Industrial CRE OUTLOOK: DAVID EGAN, Director of Research and Analysis, CBRE MATT CIAMPA, Economist, CBRE Econometric Advisors
Austin, TX: An Economic Prospectus. Growing Pains of Austin
Austin, TX: An Economic Prospectus CCIM Symposium Growing Pains of Austin January 30, 2013 Why Choose Austin? Unique combination of big city growth rates and feel of small, weird university town Diversified
Zillow Negative Equity Report
Overview The housing market is finally showing signs of life, with many metropolitan areas having hit the elusive bottom and seeing home value appreciation, however negative equity remains a drag on the
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
U.S. Home Prices Keep Weakening as Nine Cities Reach New Lows According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices New York, January 25, 2011 Data through November 2010, released today by Standard & Poor
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices 24%
Home Prices Increases Slow Down in August According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices New York, October 26, 2010 Data through August 2010, released today by Standard & Poor s for its S&P/Case-Shiller
PRESS RELEASE. Home Prices Grew at Twice the Rate of Inflation in 2014 According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Home Prices Grew at Twice the Rate of Inflation in 2014 According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices New York, February 24, 2015 today released the latest results for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home
U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY. http://www.dallasfed.org
U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY Purchasing Managers Index Index 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 Aug-01-release, Jul = 52.6 Source: Institute for Supply Management Real Value of the Dollar March 1973 = 100 120 110 100 90
2015 NFL Annual Selection Meeting R P O CLUB PLAYER POS COLLEGE ROUND 2
ROUND 2 2 1 33 TENNESSEE 2 2 34 TAMPA BAY 2 3 35 OAKLAND 2 4 36 JACKSONVILLE 2 5 37 NEW YORK JETS 2 6 38 WASHINGTON 2 7 39 CHICAGO 2 8 40 NEW YORK GIANTS 2 9 41 ST. LOUIS 2 10 42 ATLANTA 2 11 43 CLEVELAND
U.S. Real Estate Strategic Outlook
RESEARCH REPORT U.S. Real Estate Strategic Outlook March 2012 RREEF Real Estate www.rreef.com Prepared By: Alan Billingsley Director Head of Americas Research alan.billingsley@rreef.com Ross Adams Vice
UPDATE ON CURRENT MACRO ENVIRONMENT
1 Oct 213 Macro & Strategy Equity Credit Commodities 13 13 #1 Global Strategy #1 Multi Asset Research #3 Global Economics #2 Equity Quant #2 Index Analysis #3 SRI Research 12 sector teams in the Top 1
Fixed Income 2015 Update. Kathy Jones, Senior Vice President Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research
Fixed Income 2015 Update Kathy Jones, Senior Vice President Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research 1 Fed: Slow and Low 2015 Fixed Income Outlook 2 Yield Curve Flattening 3
Multifamily Outlook Second Half 2015 Executive Summary
September 2015 Steve Guggenmos 571-382-3520 Harut Hovsepyan 571-382-3143 Sara Hoffmann 571-382-5916 Jun Li 571-382-5047 Tom Shaffner 571-382-4156 Zhou Zhou 571-382-3114 John Kang 571-382-4180 Multifamily
AT&T Global Network Client for Windows Product Support Matrix January 29, 2015
AT&T Global Network Client for Windows Product Support Matrix January 29, 2015 Product Support Matrix Following is the Product Support Matrix for the AT&T Global Network Client. See the AT&T Global Network
Monetary Policy and Mortgage Interest rates
Monetary Policy and Mortgage Interest rates July 2014 Key Points: Monetary policy, which operates through changes in the official cash rate (OCR), is the main lever of macroeconomic management in Australia
The U.S. and Midwest Economy in 2016: Implications for Supply Chain Firms
The U.S. and Midwest Economy in 2016: Implications for Supply Chain Firms Rick Mattoon Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Right Place Supply Chain Management Conference
Home Prices Closed Out a Strong 2012 According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Percent change, year ago PRESS RELEASE Home Prices Closed Out a Strong 2012 According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices New York, February 26, 2013 Data through December 2012, released today by
Atlanta Lodging Outlook
Atlanta Lodging Outlook Business Intelligence Tim Hart EVP 9/7/2011 TravelClick provides expert solutions so that hotels can optimize performance, grow revenue, and create a stronger brand. 9/7/2011 2
The Housing Downturn in the United States 2009 First Quarter Update
The Housing Downturn in the United States 2009 First Quarter Update May 2009 TABLE OF CONTENTS The Housing Downturn in the United States: 2009 First Quarter Update Introduction The Housing Downturn: National
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Some More Seasonal Improvement in Home Prices According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices New York, July 26, 2011 Data through May 2011, released today by S&P Indices for its S&P/Case- Shiller
The Aftermath of the Housing Bubble
The Aftermath of the Housing Bubble James Bullard President and CEO, FRB-St. Louis Housing in America: Innovative Solutions to Address the Needs of Tomorrow 5 June 2012 The Bipartisan Policy Center St.
What Millennials Want
Young Leaders Group Presents: What Millennials Want Monday, November 9, 2015 Difficult Public Perception
PRESS RELEASE. Home Prices Continue Upward Trend According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Home Prices Continue Upward Trend According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices New York, August 25, 2015 today released the latest results for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading
JENS HENRIK EGGERT CHRISTENSEN RESEARCH ADVISOR, FINANCIAL RESEARCH FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO 101 MARKET STREET, SAN FRANCISCO, CA 94105
JENS HENRIK EGGERT CHRISTENSEN RESEARCH ADVISOR, FINANCIAL RESEARCH FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO 101 MARKET STREET, SAN FRANCISCO, CA 94105 JENS.CHRISTENSEN@SF.FRB.ORG 415.974.3115 US VISA STATUS:
Relocation Policy I S I T T I M E T O L O O S E N T H E R E I N S?
Relocation Policy I S I T T I M E T O L O O S E N T H E R E I N S? Your Panelists Moderator: Pam Jacknick, CRP, GMS Vice President, Client Development NEI Global Relocation Donna E. Barber, CRP Manager,
California s Construction Cost Outlook
California s Construction Cost Outlook Economic Forecast Q1 2013 Questions and/or Comments, Please Call: Bill Rodgers Managing Principal P (916) 276-4201 2013 CUMMING CORPORATION. All rights reserved.
ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT. A Summary of the San Diego Regional Economy UNEMPLOYMENT
A Summary of the San Diego Regional Economy Brought to you by San Diego Regional EDC analyzes key economic metrics that are important to understanding the regional economy and San Diego s standing relative
NATIONAL CREDIT UNION SHARE INSURANCE FUND
NATIONAL CREDIT UNION SHARE INSURANCE FUND PRELIMINARY & UNAUDITED FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS RENDELL L. JONES CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER MANAGEMENT OVERVIEW Balance Sheet Other - Insurance and Guarantee Program
Asian Capital Investing in US Real Estate
Cornell Real Estate Review Volume 13 Article 9 6-2015 Asian Capital Investing in US Real Estate Junwei (Eddie) Zhou Cornell University Follow this and additional works at: http://scholarship.sha.cornell.edu/crer
U.S. Real Estate Outlook
INSIGHTS U.S. Real Estate Outlook Spring 2009 20 was the worst calendar year for financial markets since the Great Depression and 2009 looks to be one of the worst for the global economy in decades. The
Outlook for Australian Property Markets 2010-2012. Perth
Outlook for Australian Property Markets 2010-2012 Perth Outlook for Australian Property Markets 2010-2012 Perth residential Population growth expected to remain at above average levels through to 2012
Turkish Arab Economic Forum June 29, 2012. Mehmet Şimşek. Minister of Finance
Turkish Arab Economic Forum June 29, 2012 Mehmet Şimşek Minister of Finance 1 Outline Turkey: Short Term Outlook Managing a Soft Landing Fallout from the Euro Crisis Turkey & MENA REBALANCING Growing ON
Risks and Rewards in High Yield Bonds
Risks and Rewards in High Yield Bonds Peter R. Duffy, CFA, Partner, Senior Portfolio Manager Navy Yard Corporate Center, Three Crescent Drive, Suite 400, Philadelphia, PA 19112 www.penncapital.com 1 What
Know Your Benchmark: What NCREIF Data is Telling Us
Know Your Benchmark: What NCREIF Data is Telling Us By Doug Poutasse Executive Director NCREIF Annual Conference October 7, 2009 NCREIF Property Index (NPI) Created early 1980 s, Data back to 1978q1 US
U.S. Commercial Real Estate Outlook:
March 15 TIAA-CREF Asset Management U.S. Commercial Real Estate Outlook: The Return of Volatility TIAA-CREF Global Real Estate Strategy & Research Martha Peyton, Ph.D. Managing Director Edward F. Pierzak,
commercial investment 2015 hampton roads real estate market review
commercial investment 2015 hampton roads real estate market review Author Data Analysis Financial Support Disclosure J. Scott Adams, CCIM Regional President, Mid-South Region CBRE Hampton Roads Victoria
THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY
THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY CARLY HARRISON Portland State University Following data revisions, the economy continues to grow steadily, but slowly, in line with expectations. Gross domestic product has increased,
THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY
THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY ADAM SEIDMAN Portland State University In its latest report, the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis noted that full employment is finally within sight in Oregon. Indeed, 2015 saw
GasBuddy Fuel Price Outlook 2015
GasBuddy Fuel Price Outlook 2015 SUMMARY About Our Annual Outlook Accuracy, reliability, and neutrality are GasBuddy s mission with price forecasting, and it is achieved with independent analysis featured
CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT
CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CUNA Mutual Group Economics May 216 (March 216 Data) Highlights During March, credit unions picked-up 577, in new memberships, loan and savings balances grew at a % and 7.6%
MBA COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE / MULTIFAMILY FINANCE QUARTERLY DATABOOK
MBA COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE / MULTIFAMILY FINANCE QUARTERLY DATABOOK Q4 2012 12401 Copying or other redistribution of this publication in whole or in part violates U.S. copyright law as well as any applicable
2015-2017 UNITED STATES OFFICE OVERVIEW & FORECAST. A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication
2015-2017 UNITED STATES OFFICE OVERVIEW & FORECAST A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication OFFICE OVERVIEW & FORECAST 2015-2017 CONTENTS ECONOMIC OVERVIEW & FORECAST 4 OFFICE MARKET OVERVIEW & FORECAST
The Numbers Tell the Story. Jeremy Aguero Preview Las Vegas 2015
The Numbers Tell the Story Jeremy Aguero Preview Las Vegas 2015 #2 Population growth in the nation #2 Nevada 1.71% Nevada population 2,843,301 #1 North Dakota 2.16% #3 Texas 1.70% Source: United States
Commercial Real Estate: Economic Cycle Analysis. By Larry Souza, MD, Charles Schwab Investment Management
Commercial Real Estate: Economic Cycle Analysis By Larry Souza, MD, Charles Schwab Investment Management Introduction Since 1993, commercial real estate has gone through two full market cycles. It has
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Home Prices in the New Year Continue the Trend Set in Late 2009 According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices New York, March 30, 2010 Data through January 2010, released today by Standard & Poor
Rea l Es t at e Ove rv i e w & Ou t l o o k. Second Quarter 2013
Rea l Es t at e Ove rv i e w & Ou t l o o k Second Quarter 213 Client & Portfolio Contact William H. Holmes Senior Managing Partner whh@hartadvisers.com Acquisitions Contact David S. Hart Senior Managing
International competition will change mortgage lending
Pentti Hakkarainen Deputy Governor, Bank of Finland International competition will change mortgage lending Nordic Mortgage Council Helsinki, 28 August 2015 28.8.2015 Unrestricted 1 Financial stability
Financial Planning Association of Colorado
Financial Planning Association of Colorado Richard Wobbekind Executive Director Business Research Division & Senior Associate Dean Leeds School of Business Real GDP Growth Percent Quarterly and Annualized
Home Prices See Strong Gains in the First Quarter of 2013 According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Home Prices See Strong Gains in the First Quarter of 2013 According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices New York, May 28, 2013 Data through March 2013, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for
Quarterly Highlights
USA Realty Advisors, LLC Quarterly Highlights The labor market continues to show signs of improvement, averaging +229 thousand jobs per month in 2014. The unemployment rate decreased to 5.8% in October,
U.S. Lodging Overview What Lies Ahead. Vail R. Brown Vice President, Global Business Development & Marketing
U.S. Lodging Overview What Lies Ahead Vail R. Brown Vice President, Global Business Development & Marketing 1 Agenda: 8 May 2012 2012 / 2013 Forecast Total U.S. Review Customer Segmentation Chain Scales
Discussion of Discounting in Oil and Gas Property Appraisal
Discussion of Discounting in Oil and Gas Property Appraisal Because investors prefer immediate cash returns over future cash returns, investors pay less for future cashflows; i.e., they "discount" them.
Comprehensive Course Schedule
Comprehensive Course Schedule The following designation and certificate courses are sponsored by BOMI International and BOMA Local Associations. Note that all BOMI International courses are also available