1 a series of studies supported by deutsche telekom 2 Working Connected in Business and Society
2 02 Life Welcome René Obermann Executive Board Chairman of Deutsche Telekom AG Dear readers, Data traffic is expanding at a breathtaking rate, and our networks are handling more and more applications. The implications are clear: Increasing volumes of data are being transmitted at ever-faster speeds. In the 90s it was all about kilobit/s, from 2000 on megabit/s was the reference speed and now gigabit/s has become the gold standard. We are clearly poised on the cusp of becoming the Gigabit Society. This development not only shapes our leisure activities, it is increasingly defining the world of work. ICT-based innovations are a key factor in any enterprise s ability to remain competitive. This is corroborated by two-thirds of the IT executives surveyed for this study. More and more enterprises are accessing services from the cloud, with computing power and IT intelligence coming straight from the net. Forty-six percent of those surveyed expect cloud computing to become widespread in the next two to five years. Entire sectors and industries are changing because of networks, for instance telemedicine, traffic control or smart grids that supply our electricity. Deutsche Telekom helps enterprises tackle these changes. We regularly consult with experts and pioneers from the fields of academia and research who are involved in finding solutions to the key issues and challenges in our industry. What are the key ICT trends for executives? What contribution do the experts expect ICT to make to sectors such as energy or automotive? Professor Tobias Kretschmer has taken a close look at these and other questions in the LIFE 2 Working Connected in Business and Society study, and has examined the implications of the developments and trends we are presently seeing. I sincerely hope you enjoy reading this study and trust that you will find it insightful and inspiring! René Obermann
3 life Interview 03 Professor Kretschmer, what was the basic idea behind the topics selected for LIFE 2 Working Connected in Business and Society? Professor Tobias Kretschmer: We wanted to provide a good, clear overview of outstanding future fields. It was important for us to select a combination of general issues which affect all enterprises regardless of their native industry, such as flexibility, collaboration and mobility, and topics specific to industries that have significant impact on society as a whole, such as transport, energy or health care. Mr. Clemens, how does T-Systems view the issues examined in this study? Reinhard Clemens: Prof. Dr. Kretschmer and his team have succeeded in providing a fascinating and concentrated overview of the most important trends in ICT and its rising importance. Technical innovation drives globalization, and global trade drives technical developments. Enterprises are increasingly forming networks, both internally and across corporate boundaries. For individuals, the borders between leisure time and work are blurring, and more people are working while on the road instead of at an office desk. What makes the LIFE 2 study special? Professor Tobias Kretschmer: We chose a very multifaceted approach which allows us to merge a variety of different viewpoints: The qualitative survey unites the standpoints of academics and industry analysts. These results then flowed into the quantitative survey of the 1,559 ICT executives, 1,009 ICT users in the enterprises and the 1,336 consumers. This enabled us to illuminate the various trends from all angles. What services can Deutsche Telekom provide to get these trends off the ground? Reinhard Clemens: The keyword and connecting element for us is the intelligent network. Look at the results for transport, health care and energy nearly all the key future trends are based on connecting the individual elements in the system intelligently with each other. This is one of T-System s core strengths, and one which allows us to play a crucial role in delivering solutions to the most pressing issues in all these industries. Which results did you find most exciting? Professor Tobias Kretschmer: The assessment of the expected growth in turnover and the contribution made by ICT are two factors that I personally consider very exciting, because they provide insight into the macroeconomic dimension of ICT. I could visualize follow-up studies taking a closer look at this aspect. The recurring indication of the significance of ICT as an innovation driver in enterprises and sectors was also very interesting. What is the most important insight provided by this study for you personally? Reinhard Clemens: The study shows that people in Germany are less aware of how important ICT is for innovation and competitiveness. We need to work to change this. Take, for instance, cloud computing: The significance of dynamic, flexible access to ICT services is fast rising, and with a Cloud made in Germany we can help to strengthen Germany s position as a leading business location. Professor Dr. Tobias Kretschmer is Director of the Institute of Com - munication Economics at the Ludwig Maximilian University in Munich. This study was designed and conducted by Professor Kretschmer in collaboration with research and strategy consultants zehnvier. Reinhard Clemens is a member of the Board of Management of Deutsche Telekom AG and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of T-Systems. The publication of this study, Working Connected in Business and Society, was supported by Deutsche Telekom.
4 04 Life
5 life 05 Contents LIFE 2 Working Connected in Business and Society 1.0 Review of Findings Working Connected in Business and Society the study Structure of the study Pioneering, Open-minded and Hesitant where are we heading? The significance of ICT for business and society The significance of ICT the macroeconomic perspective The significance of ICT in enterprises Flexibility Flexibility and sourcing Cloud computing Collaboration Significance for enterprises Innovation through collaboration Mobility Significance for enterprises New application fields for mobile solutions ICT as a catalyst for future developments Business evolution Automotive and transport Health care Education Public sector Green IT Energy 49 Conclusion 51 Glossary 52 Bibliography 53 Index 54 Publication details 55
6 06 Life 1. Almost two-thirds of the executives (64%) believe that ICT plays a key economic role as an enabler of new business models. In Germany, ICT executives in some industries expect ICT-generated growth impulses of up to 11 percent and cost-reduction potential of up to 17 percent in the next 5 years. 1.0 Review of findings Our economic system increasingly depends on digital value creation : IT and telecommunications have become essential in today s economy and world of work. They stimulate innovation, allow costs to be reduced and provide the basis for better collaboration. The results of the LIFE 2 Study Working Connected in Business and Society pinpoint current and future trends percent of ICT executives expect green IT to play a (very) important role for their enterprise in 5 years. Although the majority of ICT executives (57%) consider the cost-saving potential of green IT most important, only 24 percent have prepared a business case study for their company. Consumers are very interested in smart metering: 68 percent believe that smart metering will play an important role in their home in 5 years. Three in ten ICT executives (31%) in the health sector believe that the biggest advantage of more ICT in health care will be better quality of treatment. Three-quarters of consumers (77%) believe that an electronic health card will bring significant benefits for patients. 8. In the transport industry, ICT executives believe that ICT will make a great contribution to solving key challenges in safety and avoiding overload. German ICT executives (automotive) believe that Web-based in-vehicle entertainment systems will become standard in future.
7 life Review of findings percent of executives believe that ICT already has very important or important strategic relevance for their enterprise. Significant influence on the enterprise s ability to compete: Two-thirds of ICT executives (67%) believe that ICT will have a significant influence on their enterprise s future competitiveness through the lever Innovation ; in the United States 76 percent believe this. 3. Flexibility, mobility and collaboration are for many ICT executives the key trends in the coming years. IT security is a basic precondition: For more than half of ICT executives (54%) it one of the top 3 trends. Nearly one-third (29%) consider green IT one of the most important issues percent of the ICT executives surveyed believe that cloud computing will establish itself on the market in the next few years. More than half (51%) expect cloud computing to become the dominant method of sourcing ICT services. 77 percent of the IT executives in whose companies cloud computing is used expect investment in this area to rise. 5. The significance of virtual collaboration will continue to rise: Six in ten ICT executives believe that the use of virtual collaboration will substantially reduce development costs in their company (62%) and significantly reduce their time-to-market (60%) ICT executives expect new ICT solutions to bring great change in all the industries and sectors surveyed, and particularly in public safety (e.g. by networking public authorities), education (elearning), automotive, traffic and transport (e.g. traffic control systems) and energy (smart metering, green IT). Two-thirds of ICT executives (67%) believe that the importance of decentralized working in their enterprise will rise (strongly) in the next 5 years. Consumers also want more mobile access. Security strategies need to be increasingly extended to mobile devices: 66 percent of ICT executives consider role-based access very interesting or interesting.
8 08 life 2.0 Working Connected in Business and Society the study Information and communication technologies (ICT) shape and transform the world of work. Infrastructure, software and processes are increasingly merging to become integrated services and solutions that simplify work and deliver new business models. This study takes a closer look at the influence that the increasing use of these technologies has on the world of work. The topic is examined at several levels: for the economy as a whole, for individual enterprises and for individual jobs. LIFE 2 Working Connected in Business and Society is the second study in the LIFE series of studies which look at new trends in telecommunications. This study was designed and conducted by Dr. Tobias Kretschmer, Director of the Institute of Communication Economics at the Ludwig Maximilian University in Munich, in collaboration with research and strategy consultants zehnvier.
9 life Working Connected in Business and Society the study 09 Microlevel World of work International Combining perspectives Experts Users Pioneers Executives Trends Networking industries
10 10 life Working Connected in Business and Society the study 2.1 Structure of the study The study has a multi-level structure which integrates quantitative and qualitative elements. The study was launched with a think tank which ICT experts were invited to attend. Respected academics and seasoned industry experts met in Munich to discuss in depth the latest developments in and around the topic of Working Connected in Business and Society The aim of the debate was to identify the key ICT trends for the next few years and to analyze special developments in selected key sectors. The think tank was headed by a team from the research and strategy consultants zehnvier and the Institute of Communication Economics at the Ludwig Maximilian University headed by Professor Dr Tobias Kretschmer (see Figure 2-1). In the second phase, the emphasis was on empirically mapping the standpoints of business and society on the issues identified by the think tank. Comprehensive individual questionnaires were prepared and used to interview three different target groups: ICT executives in enterprises with more than 1000 employees. 1 This target group included individuals who are actively involved in information and communication technology purchase decisions (computer hardware, software and telecommunications) for their enterprise or who have a say in these decisions. IT users in enterprises with more than 1000 employees. This target group included individuals who regularly use information and communication technologies in their professional work (also called IT users or employees in the following). Consumers, representative of the online population of the country in question. 2 To provide an international comparison, representatives of these three target groups were selected in five different countries: Germany, France, the United Kingdom and Spain represented the typical European markets, which together account for more than 50 percent of the European gross domestic product. The United States survey provided insight from the other side of the Atlantic. In total, 1,559 ICT executives, 1,009 IT users and 1,336 consumers were surveyed. All interviews were conducted online. The individual country samples are large enough to allow comparisons between the countries to be made, thus shedding light on the differences in how ICT is used in the world 1,559 ICT involved in information and communication technology purchase decisions for their enterprise or who have a say in these decisions were interviewed for the study. Figure 2-1: Structure of the study executives who are actively LIFE 2 is based on an innovative mixture of think tank and large-scale representative surveys. Think tank with ICT experts (renowned scientists and industrial experts) - Prof. Dr. Dres. h.c. Arnold Picot, Ludwig Maximilian University, Munich - Prof. Dr. Claudia Loebbecke, University of Cologne - Prof. Dr. Roman Beck, Goethe University, Frankfurt - Prof. Dr. Jonas Schreyögg, Ludwig Maximilian University, Munich - Christophe Châlons, PAC Group - Dan Bieler, IDC - Matthias Roggendorf, PhD, McKinsey Survey of ICT executives - Objective: assessment of executives opinion - Web-based survey - Total n = 1,559 executives - Companies 1,000+ employees In addition: CATI boost interviews in selected fields Survey of ICT users - Objective: assessment of user perspective - Web-based survey - Total n = 1,009 users - Companies 1,000+ employees Countries: USA, Great Britain, Germany, Spain, France Consumer survey - Objective: assessment of consumer opinion - Web-based survey - Total n = 1,336 onliners - Representative survey of Web users
11 life Working Connected in Business and Society the study 11 of work in these countries (see Figure 2-2). Each survey module captures different perspectives of networked working in business and society. The think tank and its cross-disciplinary participants from the areas of academics and business got the ball rolling by providing important insight into the significance of information and communication technologies in a macroeconomic context. In contrast, the survey of ICT executives aimed to evaluate the present and future significance of ICT from a corporate or industry-specific perspective. To do this, each respondent was asked to assess the significance of various different aspects of ICT in their company today and how important they expected these aspects to be in five years. The focus was on topics that had emerged as particularly significant in the think tanks and in secondary analyses. The main areas that were examined were collaboration, flexibility, mobility and business evolution, i.e. future fields and industries that have been and will continue to be strongly shaped by ICT. Other topics that were examined were green IT and various facets of the issue of ICT security. The survey of IT users focused on the actual utilization and the perceived usefulness of a variety of ICT solutions in everyday working situations. In the context of the study, this survey examines the micro-level of each actual job. The focus here was also on the areas collaboration, flexibility, mobility, green IT and aspects of ICT security. The aim of the consumer survey was to uncover potential future uses for new ICT solutions and to examine consumer interest in and willingness to use specific services. This allows the present utilization and fields of application of ICT in companies to be compared with consumers willingness to use them. The combination and comparison of different perspectives draws a comprehensive picture of the status quo and development of connected working, and the significance of ICT for business and society. A key position for the future development of the ICT sector is occupied by the user industries. One of the special focuses of this study is on these industries. One of the special focuses of this study is on specific serviceoriented user industries; these include the health sector, public administration and the education sector. The automotive industry is another sector that uses ICT to a very high degree. The study takes a closer look at these four sectors as examples of the user industries. To examine individual aspects of these four industrial sectors in greater detail, a total of 101 in-depth telephone interviews with ICT executives in German enterprises in these industries were also conducted. In total, 25 executives each from the automotive industry, the health sector and public administration, and 26 executives from the education sector were interviewed. The interviews started by asking a few brief questions aimed at recapping the basic parameters of what role ICT plays in flexibilization, collaboration and mobility, in order to validate the initial results. The next set of questions focused on the industry-specific significance of ICT today and in the future. In the automotive industry further questions were asked to determine the potential contribution that ICT could make to tackling the key challenges faced by the industry. Additionally, the potential of ICT and the Internet for new in-vehicle service, entertainment and security offerings was discussed. In the health sector the questions focused on the role of ICT in key issues such as cost saving, emergency medicine and caring for elderly and chronically ill patients. The respondents were asked to assess the advantages and disadvantages of an electronic health card and the significance of ICT for health insurance companies. In the public administration sector the focus was on the potential of ICT for efficiency increases, integrating public offices in networks, electronic citizens services, eparticipation, etc. In education one of the key aspects was the role of elearning in a variety of sectors, but also the contribution of ICT to securing education funding and quality, as well as increasing equality and comparability in education. Figure 2-2: Survey of ICT executives country split The 1,559 executives surveyed are distributed across the 5 countries as shown below: Country DE FR UK US ES 20.1 Survey of ICT executives, weighted n=1,559. Expressed as a percentage.
12 12 life Working Connected in Business and Society the study Figure 2-3: Cluster size according to countries Particularly high proportion of Pioneers in the USA; high proportion of hesitant executives in France. Germany is average. Total: US Pioneering, Open-minded and Hesitant where are we heading? The broad data base used in the study allows cluster analysis to be used to provide detailed evaluations. The ICT executives were segmented into three groups on the basis of a range of different variables. The variables used for clustering referred both to the present use of ICT in the executive s own company as well as the expected future significance of ICT. Detailed questions probed the following aspects: The present use of cloud computing, applications from the field of virtual collaboration, and mobility solutions within the enterprise. The respondents were also asked to assess the expected future significance of these three technologies in their own enterprise. Based on the results, the ICT executives can be divided into three groups, which can be roughly labeled Pioneers, Open-minded and Hesitant. Pioneers are characterized by the fact that all three technologies mobility solutions, collaboration and cloud computing already occupy an important position within the company. At the same time, this group expects the significance of these technologies to keep growing in the future. The Pioneers group is the smallest of the three segments, comprising one-quarter of all ICT executives who were interviewed (25%). Open-minded users also already use mobility solutions and virtual collaboration. In contrast, cloud computing plays practically no role, and green IT is of very low importance. However, Open-minded users expect these technologies to play a greater role within their companies in the future. The Open-minded users are the largest of the three segments that were identified: 43 percent of all ICT executives who were interviewed belong in this segment. Hesitant users are the most conservative of these three segments. They do not currently attach great importance to mobility, cloud computing or collaboration in their companies, and do not expect the significance of these technologies in their companies to increase in future. 32 percent, which is around one in three of all ICT executives, belong in this group. Some very interesting differences emerged in the comparisons between the different countries. In the United States, for example, the Pioneers cluster is larger than average 35 percent of all ICT executives in the United States who were interviewed belong in this segment, which is a good ten percent more than the average of all countries. At the same time, the group of Hesitant users was only 24 percent, which is comparatively small. In France, the situation was exactly the opposite: There were noticeably few Pioneers (17%) and a great many Hesitant users (43%). (see Figure 2-3) There were also significant differences with regard to the basic business-to-business sector (B2B), approach of the companies. In enterprises in the Business-to- Business sector (B2B) the segment of Pioneers is larger than average: One-third of ICT executives in the B2B sector are Pioneers, 45 percent are Open-minded and only approximately one in five is a Hesitant user (22%). In enterprises which focus predominantly on businessto-consumer (B2C), this relationship shifts conspicuously towards Hesitant. The segment that is least open to new technologies are non-profit organizations and associations. Only 13 percent of the ICT executives in these organizations are Pioneers, and 45 percent belong in the segment Hesitant users although non-profit organizations could benefit particularly from the targeted use of social media or virtual collaboration applications, which would provide significant cost and efficiency benefits. (see Figure 2-4) A look at the socio-demographics of the ICT executives reveals only negligible differences: The average age UK DE ES FR Pioneers Open-minded Hesitant 26.6 Survey of ICT executives weighted n = 1,559. Expressed as a percentage Figure 2-4: Cluster size according to line of business In companies with B2B focus, the proportion of Pioneers is particularly high. ICT executives in non-profit organizations are particularly hesitant. Total B2B B2C Public sector NPO/Associations Pioneers Open-minded Hesitant Survey of ICT executives weighted n = 1,559. Expressed as a percentage
13 life Working Connected in Business and Society the study 13 of the Pioneers is 36, the Open-minded user has an average age of 39 and Hesitant users have a median age of 39 years. No conclusions about the individual s attitude to ICT applications for mobility, cloud computing and virtual collaboration can be drawn simply from the age of an ICT executive. The size of the enterprise also provides no indication of whether a company belongs to the Pioneers group or to a different cluster. In general, the responses of the ICT executives in the enterprises surveyed are relatively homogeneous, indicating that there are no qualitative differences in the way ICT is used above a certain company size. It would be interesting to see in future studies whether this homogeneity can also be observed in smaller companies. On the other hand, there does appear to be a connection between the individual s assessment of the present and future significance of these topics and his/ her position within the company: Of all the respondents at C-level (e.g. CEOs and CIOs), the proportion of Pioneers is particularly high at 46 percent. One in two ICT executives at top executive level can be assigned to the Pioneers segment. One in three of the C-level executives surveyed is Open-minded (32%) and only 22% are Hesitant users. The C-level executives believe that the technologies which defined the cluster are very important, more so than, for example, middle-management ICT executives. (see Figure 2-5) This cluster analysis is a useful starting point for assessing the future development and potential of ICT. A closer look at the cluster reveals one central finding: Virtual collaboration is a technology that is firmly anchored in many enterprises, and has already entered the mainstream. The use of Web conferencing solutions, social media applications and tools from the field of unified communications is no longer a defining characteristic of Pioneers; the use of these technologies has become standard for the Open-minded segment. In contrast, there is still great potential in the fields of mobility and cloud computing. The three user segments identified above differ quite noticeably in their present utilization and assessment of these technologies: Pioneers already use these technologies; the Open-minded users utilize them, but not to the full extent and, in contrast to the Hesitant users cluster, they believe that the significance of these technologies will increase in future. On the basis of these findings, it seems clear that the Openminded segment will play a key role in driving the future spread of these technologies. Figure 2-5: Cluster size according to position in company hierarchy More Pioneers on C-level. Board of Directors/Management (e.g. CEO, CIO) Upper management Middle and other management Pioneers Open-minded Hesitant Survey of ICT executives weighted n = 1,559. Expressed as a percentage
14 14 life 3.0 The significance of ICT for business and society Information and communications technology applications can be found in practically every area of life; they shape our private lives and our work. But while there is extensive and detailed media coverage of the changes in private communication, the significant and frequently far-reaching impact that ICT has on the world of work receives far less attention. ICT is also becoming increasingly important on a macroeconomic level. Not only is the ICT industry a steadily growing sector with a high economic significance, ICT-based solutions and technologies also make a valuable and very important contribution to value-creation in other sectors, e.g. trade or manufacturing industries.
15 life The significance of ICT for business and society 15 Key ICT trends in the next years Flexibility Cloud Computing Flexible sourcing Collaboration Virtual collaboration Open innovation Mobility Enterprise mobility Internet of Things General trends: IT security, Green IT, Business intelligence, Strategic IT alignment
16 16 life The significance of ICT for business and society 3.1 The significance of ICT the macroeconomic perspective Information and communication technologies are just as essential for modern society as electricity and water networks. Modern everyday life would be utterly unthinkable without information and communication technologies, said Professor Roman Beck, outlining the importance of ICT at the think tank meeting at the outset of this study. ICT is a key technology and an interdisciplinary technology; it helps enterprises to reduce costs, improve processes, boost innovation, and increase productivity. ICT also makes the public sector leaner, faster and more citizen-friendly. ICT improves the provision of medical care, increases safety and provides greater quality of life this is how the industry association BITKOM describes the significance of ICT. 3 But what happens when one tries to substantiate these statements with proven figures? What is the true economic significance of ICT? Software, IT services and telecommunications are the growth drivers of the German economy The software and IT service industry in Germany has grown steadily to become an independent economic factor whose gross value creation and impact on employment is set to rise even further over the next two decades. The ISI Study published by the Fraunhofer Institute, which was presented on 03 March 2010 at the CeBIT in Hanover, provides sound data to prove this development. 4 The study starts from the premise that the industry will experience an increase in employment of 80 percent by 2030, which would be equivalent to 452,000 new jobs. The industry also plays a central role in intelligent networks and technologies which society will be able to use to tackle the challenges of the future, e.g. climate change and demographic change. In spite of this, there is a strong systematic tendency to underestimate the sector s influence as a powerful economic force and its integral function in location and industrial policies. In the last few years the ICT industry in Germany outperformed the overall economy and reported a steady rise in gross value added, revenue, production volumes and jobs. By 2030 in Germany the sector will be generating annual gross value added of 90 billion. In comparison: Experts at Prognos expect sales in the mechanical engineering industry to be billion and the automotive sector to generate billion. The sectors mechanical engineering and automotive, which in Germany are generally regarded as being prime economic drivers, will develop less dynamically in the next years, while the software and IT service sector is expected to double its contribution to gross value added. 5 The ICT industry not only has direct economic significance as an independent sector, it also makes a substantial indirect contribution to domestic economic growth. For instance, modern communication networks influence economic growth by helping to spread information and promoting the development and adaptation of innovations. Current empirical studies show that on average the per-capita income of a country rises between 2.7 and 3.9 percent after broadband has been introduced compared with pre-broadband figures. In terms of the distribution of broadband infrastructure, a rise in broadband user rates of 10 percentage points of the population results in an average increase in per-capita economic growth of between 0.9 and 1.5 percentage points. 6 The indirect contribution to economic growth made by ICT is largely due to the fact that software, IT and telecommunications services are interdisciplinary technologies. A great many industrial products and services depend directly or indirectly on ICT. Christophe Châlons, Chief Analyst of the PAC Group and a think tank participant, estimates that the ICT sector accounts for around five percent of the German gross domestic product. If you also include the innovations that are made possible by ICT, then the ICT share of GDP rises to around seven percent. And if embedded systems, which also play a decisive role in innovations, are included, then the ICT share of GDP rises to over seven percent. At the think tank meeting, Professor Roman Beck, Goethe-Universität Frankfurt, summed this development up as follows: Even in many traditional industrial sectors it makes perfect sense to refer to digital value added because their business models have evolved and now take place either fully or to a large extent in digital networks. To assess the true economic significance of ICT it is necessary to look at how these technologies act and are used as enablers in other sectors. This is precisely the approach chosen by the LIFE 2 Study, and it FIGURE 3-1: IMPORTANCE OF ICT OVERALL ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE (revenue GROWTH) In the next 5 years, ICT executives in Germany are expecting substantial growth impulses due to ICT-based solutions and technologies. How would you rate the percentage of revenue growth in your industry over the next five years? What percentage of this growth do you expect will be the result of ICT-based solutions and technologies? Automotive industry Industry & production Transport & logistics Health, medicine & social services Education Energy & water supply Public sector & associations Financial services Insurance industry Trade & sales Other services Share of ICT in industry revenue growth Industrial growth Survey of ICT executives in Germany, weighted n = 310. Expressed as a percentage; real, inflation-adjusted values Industrial growth: average values; Share ICT: 5% trimmed average values