World Wheat Market Situation and Outlook 2015/16. World Wheat Supply & Demand
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1 World Wheat Market Situation and Outlook 2015/16 Eric Willems DG Agriculture, European Commission EIGHTH SESSION OF THE AMIS GLOBAL FOOD MARKET INFORMATION GROUP Milan, Expo 2015 Milan October th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group 1 World Wheat Supply & Demand Production reach new record Trade falls in 2015/16 Inventories increase to a 13 year high 8 th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group 2 1
2 Wheat Production Significant production declines in Argentina, Canada, EU and India, mostly driven by unfavorable weather, more than offsetting good prospects in Australia and larger crops in Turkey, Ukraine and USA China s wheat production above last year s record, supported by increased yield and planting area 8 th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group 3 Wheat conditions for AMIS countries as of September 28 th 8 th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group 4 2
3 Feed wheat utilization: to grow by 4 percent in 2015/16 Wheat stocks: remaining high in 2015/16 up marginally from 2014/15 8 th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group 5 World Wheat trade in 2015/16 (July/June) Production in selected major EU to export less after record sales in exporters 2014/15 8 th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group 6 3
4 Wheat trade in 2015/16 (July/June) Wheat supply* in selected importing countries Higher supplies leading to reduced imports * Supply = carryover stocks from 2014/15 + production in th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group 7 Wheat export price (US No.2 H.W. Gulf) CBOT wheat futures for December 2015 delivery 8 th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group 8 4
5 Wheat Forward Curve Wheat forward curves continue to reflect poor export outlook and ample supplies CFTC Commitments of Traders Major Categories Net Length as percentage of Open Interest Managed money increased its net short position in wheat in September 8 th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group 9 A focus on EU soft & durum Wheat 8 th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group 10 5
6 EU 28 Wheat Production Million tonnes / / / / / / / / / /15 estim. Source : European Commission durum wheat soft wheat 2015/16 f'cast 8 th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group France Germany United Kingdom Poland Romania Italy Spain Hungary Denmark Bulgaria Czech Republic Lithuania Sweden Slovakia Belgium Austria Latvia Greece Netherlands Finland Croatia Ireland Estonia Slovenia Portugal Luxembourg Cyprus Malta Soft wheat Durum wheat th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group 12 6
7 Wheat Production for the 8 major exporters EU Russia USA Canada Australia Ukraine Kazakhstan Argentina (estim.) 2015(f'cast) Source: IGC September '15 report / European Commission 8 th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group 13 (Million tonnes) EU 28 Balance Sheet Soft wheat Durum wheat All Wheat Change: Change: Change: estim. f'cast 2015/16 estim. f'cast 2015/16 estim. f'cast 2015/16 over over over 2014/ / /15 Beginning stocks % % % Usable production % % % Import % % % TOTAL AVAILABILITIES % % % USE Human % % % Seed % % % Industrial % % % o.w. bioethanol/biofuel % % Animal feed % % % TOTAL USE % % % Losses (excl on farm) % % % Solde disponible % % % Export % % % Ending stocks ( ) Ending stocks % % % Source: European Commission 8 th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group 14 7
8 EU 28 Cereals exports and imports from 2000/01 to 2014/15 including flour and other processed products in grain equivalent EXPORTS Coarse grain exports Trade balance 36,2 mio t Wheat exports Wheat imports Coarse grain imports IMPORTS 15.5 Source: EUROSTAT Marketing Year (July June) 8 th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group 15 Winter wheat sowing in the EU: calendar vs cumulated rainfall 8 th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group 8
9 Winter wheat sowing in the EU: relative soil moisture vs cumulated rainfall 8 th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group Thank You 8 th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group 18 9
10 8 th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group 19 8 th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group 20 10
41 T Korea, Rep. 52.3. 42 T Netherlands 51.4. 43 T Japan 51.1. 44 E Bulgaria 51.1. 45 T Argentina 50.8. 46 T Czech Republic 50.4. 47 T Greece 50.
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