presented at Platt s Petrochemical Seminar September 2013

Transcription

1 OLEFINS IN NORTH AMERICA: ethylene production & coproduct supply in an environment of plentiful supplies low cost ethane knowledge to bridge the gap presented at Platt s Petrochemical Seminar September 2013

2 : an overview Founded in 1988; PCC provides extensive ongoing analysis & forecasts to a diverse group of clients PCC mission & objectives:» PCC helps clients understand the dynamics of NGL markets & economic interactions between midstream, petrochemicals, refining, and oil & gas production; and differences in dynamics between domestic & international markets PCC provides ongoing services & custom studies:» NGL Markets in North America» Olefin Markets in North America Slide # 2

3 U.S. ETHYLENE PRODUCTION: & the importance of growing supply of low cost ethane billion lb/year U.S. ethylene production was flat (+/- 2 b lb/yr) at 50 b lb/year & 54 b lb year during Production based on ethane was flat at b lb/year & increased to 38 b lb/yr in 12 & b lb/yr in 13. Production from ethane will be billion lb/year by Production based on heavy feeds was billion lb/yr during & fell to 7 billion lb/yr in While total ethylene from all feeds remained steady, coproduct supply fell sharply. from ethane from propane from heavy feeds Slide # 3

4 U.S. Gulf Coast ethylene production cost: ethane versus natural gasoline cents per lb VPC ethane VPC natural gasoline Slide # 4

5 ethane versus natural gasoline: review of cost differentials VPC for ethane were generally 2-4 /lb more than VPC for natural gasoline and were even with natural gasoline for ethylene producers who sell coproducts at discounted prices. VPC for ethane have been progressively less than for natural gasoline since Q4 2007: 8-12 /lb less in & /lb less in VPC for ethane was progressively less expensive due to accelerating growth in gas plant production; ethylene producers played catchup with retrofit projects to increase ethane cracking capabilities. Before 2007, Gulf Coast ethylene production costs were similar to economics in world regions where naphtha is the dominant feed. Slide # 5

6 LOW COST ETHANE: & the impact on petrochemical markets USGC will have cost advantages of /lb versus Europe & Asia USGC will have a modest cost disadvantage vs. Middle East; growing ethane supply will offset cost disadvantage Global chemical companies may use USGC cost advantage to shut down high cost naphtha crackers in Europe and Asia Slide # 6

7 GREEN FIELD ETHYLENE PLANTS: summary of announced light feed crackers Various ethylene producers have announced plans new plants. Six announced projects are high probability & due on stream in :» ChevronPhillips Chemical billion lb/year» Dow Chemical billion lb/year» ExxonMobil Chemical -- 3 billion lb/year» Formosa Chemical -- 2 billion lb/year» Occidental/Mexichem --1 billion lb/year» Sasol USA -- 3 billion lb/year One announced project is medium probability with an on stream date later than 2017:» Shell -- 3 billion lb/year Slide # 7

8 U.S. POLYETHYLENE EXPORTS: & the importance of growing supply of low cost ethane billion lb/year PE exports were steady at billion lb/year during ; exports to Canada & Mexico were 45-50% of total. South America was the next most popular destination. By 2020, U.S. PE exports will jump to 18 billion lb/year; most or all of the growth in exports will move to destinations outside North America & South America. to CANADA & MEXICO to OTHER DESTINATIONS Slide # 8

9 LOW COST ETHANE: & the impact on coproduct butadiene supply billion lb/year ACTUAL FORECAST Coproduct yields from ethane are much lower than from all other feeds. Coproduct supply of butadiene (component butadiene only) began to decline in 2006 & fell to 2.5 billion lb/year in 2012 (1.5 billion lb/year less than in 2004) Coproduct butadiene supply will bottom out at 2 billion lb/year & will remain steady at 2 billion lb/year. Slide # 9

10 BUTADIENE IMPORTS: billion lb/year Imports were billion lb/year until 2009; imports jumped to billion lb/year in 2011 & 2012 but imports were 30% of the decline in coproduct supply. Demand for butadiene based derivatives (domestic consumption or as exports) declined by billion lb/year to keep the market in balance. ACTUAL FORECAST Slide # 10

11 highlights, headlines & sound bites CRUDE OIL & NATURAL GAS Extension of horizontal drilling & hydraulic fracturing and the proliferation of oil prone shale plays will support continued growth in U.S. crude oil production for a while and without limit if U.S. Congress lifts the legal ban on exports Demand growth in electric power demand will be flat (& demand may even decline) and will limit growth in natural gas demand during ; development of LNG production facilities and existing LNG terminals will add another growth outlet for U.S. natural gas production. Slide # 11

12 highlights, headlines & sound bites LIGHT FEEDSTOCKS & OLEFINS:» U.S. ethylene producers have invested in feedstock flexibility since several naphtha crackers came on stream in the late 1970 s; U.S. ethylene producers were well prepared to take advantage of growth in U.S. ethane supply during » Growth in associated gas production (the original source of NGL rich gas & a byproduct of crude oil) will support continued growth in U.S. ethane & propane supply.» Now that U.S. ethylene producers have confidence in sustained ethane and propane supply growth, they will proceed with building billion lb of new ethane based capacity during » U.S. chemical companies will take advantage of the surge in lowcost ethylene production to expand PE exports into Asia & Europe. Light feedstock supply will be sufficient to support 15 billion lb of new ethylene capacity by Slide # 12