IECA Meeting. March Benjamin Gage, Global LNG

Transcription

1 IECA Meeting March 214 Benjamin Gage, Global LNG

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3 US LNG Projects Alaska South Central LNG T1-3 Kenai LNG Valdez LNG T1-4 (AGPA) Oregon LNG T1-2 Jordan Cove LNG (Liq.) Cove Point LNG (Liq.) Existing Under Construction FID Reached FEED Completed In FEED Pre-FEED Proposed Stalled Canceled Gulf of Mexico - See Next Slide Elba Island T1-2 (Liq.) Source: IHS IECA Meeting PFC Energy Page 3 March 214

4 Gulf of Mexico LNG Projects Sabine Pass (Liq.) T5-6 Sabine Pass (Liq.) T1-4 Cameron LNG (Liq.) T1-3 Magnolia LNG T1 Magnolia LNG T2-4 Gasfin LNG Golden Pass LNG (Liq.) T1-3 Freeport LNG (Liq.) T1-3 South Texas LNG T1-2 Waller Point LNG (OS) Lavaca Bay LNG (OS) Phase 1 Venture Global LNG Lake Charles (Liq.) T1-3 Delfin FLNG T1-4 Lavaca Bay LNG (OS) Phase 2 Gulf LNG (Liq.) Main Pass Energy Hub (OS) CE FLNG T1-2 (OS) Louisiana LNG Annova LNG T1-2 Texas LNG Phase 1 Corpus Christi LNG (Liq.) T1-3 Gulf Coast LNG T1-4 Barca LNG Eos LNG Existing Under Construction FID Reached FEED Completed In FEED Pre-FEED Proposed Stalled Canceled Source: IHS IECA Meeting PFC Energy Page 4 March 214

5 What Impact on Global LNG Market? 35 Countries Participating in Global LNG Trade mmtons 3 Global LNG Supply 3 Importers (3) mmtons Exporters (17) Liquidity of Bilateral Trade Improving Source: IHS Waterborne, IHS IECA Meeting PFC Energy Page 5 March 214 Source: IHS Waterborne Flat Supply

6 Table of Contents Traditional LNG Supply World US LNG Option Global Supply Outlook Global Demand Outlook

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8 Global Natural Gas Prices: Local / Regional $/b 1 Majors: Average Realized Oil Price $/mcf 16 Majors: Average Realized Gas Price XOM COP CVX Shell TOTAL BP XOM COP CVX Shell TOTAL BP Macro Drives Global Oil Price Micro Drives Global Gas Price Source: Company Financial Reports, IHS IECA Meeting PFC Energy Page 8 March 214 Source: Company Financial Reports, IHS

9 Traditional LNG Supply Requires Oil-Indexation LNG Value Chain: $1-25 bn Upstream & Liquef action Shipping Regasif ication Traditional Model JVs between buyers, sellers, IOCs Long-term contracts indexed to oil / products Buyer bears volume risk, seller price risk Source: IHS IECA Meeting PFC Energy Page 9 March 214

10 Oil-Indexation Contract Sales Price Slope --->.13x.14x.15x.16x $6/bbl Brent $7.8 $8.4 $9. $9.6 $8/bbl Brent $1.4 $11.2 $12. $12.8 $1/bbl Brent $13. $14. $15. $16. $12/bbl Brent $15.6 $16.8 $18. $19.2 $14/bbl Brent $18.2 $19.6 $21. $22.4 Source: IHS IECA Meeting PFC Energy Page 1 March 214

11 Hub Prices vs. LNG Import Prices Average Monthly Gas Hub Prices $/MMBtu Netherlands (TTF) UK (NBP) US (Henry Hub) Average Monthly LNG Import Prices $/MMBtu South Korea Taiwan Japan Micro Drives Gas Hub Prices Source: IHS IECA Meeting PFC Energy Page 11 March Macro Drives LNG via Oil Linkage Source: IHS

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13 Creating the Option to Buy HH-Linked LNG As the first US-based LNG project to start construction, Sabine Pass LNG set the initial pricing expectations for US-based LNG. The Sabine Pass contracts are structured as follows: Henry Hub x 115%. The 15% mark-up covers the gas lost during the conversion process (6-8%) as well as any basis differentials and other risks that Cheniere undertakes in procuring the gas. Liquefaction charge. Ranging from $2.25/MMBtu (first contract) to $3/MMBtu, this covers the CAPEX for the facility. Shipping. This cost is taken on by the buyer. Shipping to Europe is estimated at $1/MMBtu and shipping to Asia is estimated at $2 to $3/MMBtu (India / NE Asia). Regasification. In Europe, comparing USbased LNG to pipeline gas requires regasification charges of $.4 to $1/MMBtu. Although other projects will not track these economics 1%, they are assumed to be similar. IECA Meeting PFC Energy Page 13 March 214 Delivered Cost Liquefaction Fee Gas Surcharge Henry Hub Source: IHS KOGAS Contract with Sabine Pass at $6 Henry Hub Shipping (Korea) $/MMBtu

14 Risks Associated with HH-Linked LNG Sabine Pass - KOGAS Contract $/MMBtu 25 $/MMBtu 25 Oil Price (Brent) 2 15 South Korea Avg. Import Price Sabine Pass-KOGAS Contract (DES) Volatility of HH-Linked LNG Source: IHS IECA Meeting PFC Energy Page 14 March Source: IHS Oil Price Expectations

15 More HH-Linked LNG in Proposed Project Pipeline Proposed Liquefaction Capacity with Announced Start Date (423 mmtpa) US Canada Russia 5% Mozambique 6% Australia 8% US 41% Australia Mozambique Russia Papua New Guinea Nigeria Tanzania Canada 26% Other Source: IHS IECA Meeting PFC Energy Page 15 March 214

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17 Other Key LNG Supply Frontiers* Canada 18 mmtpa Russia 22 mmtpa United States 172 mmtpa East Africa 35 mmtpa Australia 34 mmtpa Source: IHS *Regional figures based on proposed projects with project-announced start dates. IECA Meeting PFC Energy Page 17 March 214

18 Risking HH-Linked Option vs. Traditional Oil-Linked LNG Parameter US LNG (HH-Linked) Non-US LNG (Oil-Linked) Feedstock Availability Politics and Geopolitics Environmental Regulation Domestic Gas Needs Partner Priorities Project Economics Ability to Execute Market Overall IECA Meeting PFC Energy Page 18 March 214

19 LNG Supply Capacity Outlook Europe North America North Africa Middle East Russia SE Asia 295 Global LNG (mmtpa) South America Sub-Saharan Africa Australia Source: IHS * All values are in millions of tonnes per annum (mmtpa) IECA Meeting PFC Energy Page 19 March 214

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21 Flexible Contracts Have Made Market More Efficient mmtons 3 LNG Imports by Region Middle East LNG Contracts: Fixed vs. Flexible mmtons Destination 3 North America 25 South America 25 Europe 2 Asia 14% 2 Flexible Destination % Fixed Destination Source: IHS Waterborne, IHS IECA Meeting PFC Energy Page 21 March 214 Source: IHS

22 Europe: Power Sector Weakening LNG Demand 6% Share of Gas in Power Generation: UK & Spain mmtons 2.5 Net LNG Imports: UK & Spain 5% United Kingdom 2. Spain 4% 1.5 3% 1. 2% 1% Spain.5 United Kingdom % Source: DECC, REE, IHS IECA Meeting PFC Energy Page 22 March Source: IHS Waterborne, IHS

23 Japan-Korea-Taiwan (JKT): Nuclear Wild Card Japan Since July 212, the only operating nuclear plants have been Kansai Electric s Ohi No. 3 and 4 reactors. Prime Minister Shinzō Abe supports restarts of nuclear reactors if they are deemed safe by the Nuclear Regulatory Authority. South Korea 6 of 23 reactors are offline as of early March 214. New nuclear policy will cut the share of nuclear power supply to 29% by 235 compared to 41% of supply by 23. Taiwan Taiwan has decided to reduce its reliance on nuclear power and plans to shut down all of its nuclear plants after they have operated for 4 years. Just one nuclear plant could be operational by 225 IECA Meeting PFC Energy Page 23 March 214 JKT: LNG Imports mmtons Forecast 9 Japan 8 South Korea Taiwan Source: IHS Waterborne, IHS

24 China & India: Sustainable Ability to Pay? mmtons China: LNG Imports & Prices Imports (Left) Avg. LNG Import Price (Right) $/MMBtu mmtons India: LNG Imports & Prices Imports (Left) Avg. LNG Import Price (Right) $/MMBtu * * *Avg. LNG Import Price data for 213 is preliminary. *Avg. LNG Import Price data for 213 is preliminary. Source: IHS, IHS Waterborne, IHS Source: Petronet, IHS Waterborne, IHS IECA Meeting PFC Energy Page 24 March 214

25 Conclusions Many reasons to believe that US LNG exports will be changeup rather than fastball for global LNG markets Pricing Volume of supply Buyers option to contract HH-Linked LNG from the United States has so far delayed commercial progress for other LNG supply frontiers Western Canada East Africa How much LNG supply will the market sustain? Power sector development nuclear, coal, price of carbon Domestic gas market pricing reforms IECA Meeting PFC Energy Page 25 March 214

26 Contact Information Benjamin Gage Associate Director, Global LNG Direct Phone: +1 (22) Switchboard: +1 (22) For further information please contact the Client Services Team at pfcenergy.com pfcenergy.com/contact-us IECA Meeting PFC Energy Page 26 March 214