Black Sea Geopolitics: An Overview

Transcription

1 Our knowledge is your strength Black Sea Geopolitics: An Overview Alex Jackson For Menas Associates The Arab Spring: Algeria's Menas 'Perfect Associates; Storm'; Prof. Jeremy Keenan,

2 2 DEFINING THE REGION» What is the Black Sea region? Described as a bridge between Europe, the Mediterranean and the Caspian but what does this mean?» Littoral states are extremely varied in their orientation and regional identity. Romania and Turkey, or Russia and Georgia, have very different concepts of where they belong» So integration is limited and a regional identity is still developing: perhaps the Black Sea should be seen as a transit corridor, but not as a unifying factor or a defining source of common cultural identity. States look outwards, not inwards» Why does this matter? A lack of integration and different political visions affects energy transit, resource cooperation, and wider geopolitical dynamic. Won t affect investment but will affect the bigger picture.

3 3 DIFFERENT POLES OF ATTRACTION» Bulgaria and Romania: EU states, have historical links to Russia and Turkey but are anchored to the West» Ukraine: Looking east or west? Divided between pro-russian and pro- European tendencies» Russia: Its own geopolitical pole. Ambivalent relationship with Europe, seeks to expand influence in Black Sea region as elsewhere» Georgia: Aspires to Euro-Atlantic integration but held back by internal problems, conflict with Russia, enlargement fatigue» Turkey: Undergoing a reorientation of its identity: European, Eurasian, Middle Eastern, all three?

4 4 DEFINING THE RISKS» Military conflicts: May occur within the wider Black Sea region Armenia/Azerbaijan, internal conflict within Turkey, Russia/Georgia» Access disruption: Bosphorus is the only non-river source of access to the Black Sea. Closure of the Bosphorus for political, security, environmental or commercial reasons would have significant impact» Soft security threats: smuggling, trafficking, environmental damage» Border disputes: Could hinder transnational projects and the development of oil and gas reserves» Geopolitical tensions and pipeline politics : Great-power politics in the region could affect regional states and their energy policies» BUT no single security complex in the region

5 5 QUANTIFYING THE RISKS» Military conflict: Possible around the region s peripheries (Caucasus, Turkey, Moldova, southern Russia) but with limited spillover elsewhere in the region» Access disruption: Possible. Bosphorus is vulnerable to accidental or intentional disruption. Increased oil and gas activity will cause greater delays, and will complicate the picture, i.e. for LNG. New bypass canal could ease matters» Soft security threats: Unlikely. Smuggling and trafficking are seen as a threat but the evidence and risk is low. Environmental damage is a risk but just requires good practice» Border disputes: Not a serious issue. Some minor disputes; only serious issue is offshore Georgia/Abkhazia» Geopolitical tensions and pipeline politics : can affect the broader energy/political map and needs to be taken into account

6 ISSUES AND DRIVERS REGIONAL COOPERATION» BSEC: 12 members (all littoral states, Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Greece, Moldova, Serbia); has focused on trade/development/culture/transport. No high politics function.» GUAM: Georgia-Ukraine-Azerbaijan-Moldova. Has attempted to build alternative to pro- Russian blocs in the wider region. Has worked to build a shared energy corridor limited activity so far. Not a viable geopolitical pole of attraction.» Turkish-Russian relationship: keeping the balance? High-level political and trade relationship, close energy ties across the Black Sea region. Long history of a naval balance ; Russia has a strong stake in maintaining open transit through the Bosphorus.» External factors: The EU weakening Black Sea regionalism; US security / political presence aggravates Russia and contributes to existing divisions Turkey s search for identity reorientation elsewhere, or closer ties with Russia?» Black Sea oil and gas development promoting cooperation? Joint field development and shared political/technical/environmental approach could deepen regional integration. 6

7 ISSUES AND DRIVERS THE ROLE OF RUSSIA» Dominant power in the wider region: strong historical influence in all Black Sea states, relationship with Turkey has changed from conflict to cooperation» Security presence through the Black Sea Fleet, role in Georgia s breakaway enclave, range of military assets in the wider area» Economic assets: Novorossiysk, main export point for Central Asian and Russian oil supplies Offshore drilling (Rosneft, ExxonMobil, Energy infrastructure: pipelines to Turkey, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania» Political goals in the Black Sea Region rest on: Limiting US/NATO security presence Supporting Russian pipelines and energy projects Maintaining good relations with Turkey (among others) 7

8 » South Stream ISSUES AND DRIVERS ENERGY TRANSIT Will it happen? Pushing ahead but questions over timeframe, demand, source Impact on geopolitics: If built quickly would limit/delay the growth of the Southern Corridor, strengthen Russia s presence in the Black Sea region, slow down Caspian gas developments» AGRI and White Stream Will they happen? Both plausible in the medium term but reflect secondary priorities limited size, limited impact Impact on geopolitics: Light. Alternative supply sources for Ukraine/Romania, and alternative export links for Azerbaijan but would not fundamentally change the gas picture. Difference between BTC and Baku- Supsa pipelines.» Impact of the Southern Corridor? 8

9 9 ISSUES AND DRIVERS THE BOSPHORUS» Passage governed by the Montreux Convention of 1936: allows free civilian access, limits military access. Strategic issue for Russia» Environmental concerns and traffic (one oil tanker every 53 minutes ) increasingly delay transit. Costs oil companies $1.4 billion a year» PM Recep Tayyip Erdoğan proposes a crazy project of a canal west of Istanbul to cut traffic. Would cost at least $12 billion and take several years» Would facilitate tanker traffic and encourage growth of Black Sea oil industry

10 10 TOWARDS THE FUTURE» Regional integration will be a challenge: with competing identities, geopolitical poles of attraction, political cultures, and security situations - building a shared approach will be difficult» Access to the Black Sea will become an increasing factor for IOCs and littoral states. New solutions may have to be found (pipelines; canal; new legal regime at the Bosphorus)» External factors will continue to influence the Black Sea region: EU s crisis, Turkey s political orientation, Caucasus security, Eurasian gas politics will all affect the littoral states» An energy rush could change the picture: Big finds could change the region s economic, political and geopolitical makeup in the next ten-twenty years» Look to the long term

11 CONTINUITY OR CHANGE? 11

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