What Does the Historical Climate Record in Texas Say About Future Climate Change?
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1 What Does the Historical Climate Record in Texas Say About Future Climate Change? John W. Nielsen-Gammon Texas State Climatologist Texas A&M University
2 Knowledge and Prediction Ability for Changes in Weather and Climate: Subjective Estimate Certainty of Knowledge 100,000 years ago 10,000 years ago 1,000 years ago 100 years ago 10 years ago 1 year ago 1 month ago 3 days ago 6 hours ago 6 hours from now 3 days from now 1 month from now 1 year from now 10 years from now 100 years from now 1,000 years from now 10,000 years from now 100,000 years from now What happened globally What happened in Texas What will happen globally What will happen in Texas
3 IPCC Multi-Model Ensemble
4 IPCC Multi-Model Ensemble, Scenario A1B Black dots: areas where various computer models agree
5 A1B Precipitation compared to Model Results, compiled by IPCC
6 El Niño Temperature Composite Nov-Mar Anomalies NOAA- CIRES/ CDC
7 La Niña Temperature Composite Nov-Mar Anomalies NOAA- CIRES/ CDC
8 El Niño Precipitation Composite Nov-Mar Anomalies NOAA- CIRES/ CDC
9 La Niña Precipitation Composite Nov-Mar Anomalies NOAA- CIRES/ CDC
10 Future vs. Past Temperature outlook in Texas from greenhouse gases: warmer Precipitation outlook in Texas from greenhouse gases: probably drier Are these expectations consistent with what s been happening over the past century?
11 The Climate Record United States Historical Climatology Network, Versions 1 and stations with long-term, relatively stable climate records Corrections for obs time (temperature) and objectively-identified inhomogeneities TAMU statistical interpolation to extend to denser COOP network Conventional climate division data has issues
12 PANHANDLE AND PLAINS FAR WEST TEXAS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS EAST TEXAS SOUTHEAST TEXAS SOUTH TEXAS
13 Average Temperature of HCN Stations Within Texas Areas Annual Mean Temperature (F) Year Panhandle and Plains Far West Texas West Central Texas South Central Texas North Central Texas East Texas South Texas Southeast Texas
14 Linear Temperature Trend, Texas HCN Stations Number of Stations Trend (Degrees F per Century)
15 Smoothed Temperatures of HCN Stations Within Texas Areas Annual Mean Temperature (F) Year Panhandle and Plains Far West Texas West Central Texas South Central Texas North Central Texas East Texas South Texas Southeast Texas
16 Smoothed Temperatures of HCN Stations Within Texas Areas Annual Mean Temperature (F) Faster warming than rest of globe 1980-present Deeper cooling than rest of globe Year Panhandle and Plains Far West Texas West Central Texas South Central Texas North Central Texas East Texas South Texas Southeast Texas
17 Attribution Studies Based on atmospheric models driven by observed sea surface temperatures Temperature variations during last half of 20th Century largely due to sea surface temperature changes (overall, patterns) Natural vs. anthropogenic fraction unknown
18 Annual Texas Precipitation Fraction of Century Mean Year Panhandle and Plains Far West Texas West Central Texas South Central Texas North Central Texas East Texas South Texas Southeast Texas
19 Annual Texas Precipitation Fraction of Century Mean Year Panhandle and Plains Far West Texas West Central Texas South Central Texas North Central Texas East Texas South Texas Southeast Texas Linear (Panhandle and Plains) Linear (Far West Texas) Linear (West Central Texas) Linear (South Central Texas) Linear (North Central Texas) Linear (East Texas) Linear (South Texas) Linear (Southeast Texas)
20 Annual Texas Precipitation Fraction of Century Mean Year Panhandle and Plains Far West Texas West Central Texas South Central Texas North Central Texas East Texas South Texas Southeast Texas Linear (Panhandle and Plains) Linear (Far West Texas) Linear (West Central Texas) Linear (South Central Texas) Linear (North Central Texas) Linear (East Texas) Linear (South Texas) Linear (Southeast Texas)
21 Precipitation trends at centurylong USHCN stations Blue: Increasing Precipitation Red: Decreasing Precipitation
22 9-yr Smoothed Texas Precipitation Fraction of Century Mean Year Panhandle and Plains Far West Texas West Central Texas South Central Texas North Central Texas East Texas South Texas Southeast Texas
23 Possible Causes of Precip Increase Response to global warming not reproduced by global models? Response to increased atmospheric particulates? Response to land use changes: irrigation, surface water, urbanization? Response to natural sea surface temperature variations?
24 What does that mean for future precipitation? Response to global warming not reproduced by global models? Continued Increase Response to increased atmospheric particulates? Slow Decrease Response to land use changes: irrigation, surface water, urbanization? Slow Decrease Response to natural sea surface temperature variations? Rapid Decrease
25 Fraction of months in drought, based on 12-month total precipitation
26 Final Remarks Temperature likely to go up Rate of increase faster than global mean since 1980 Important driver of future water demand Future precipitation change unknown We ve gotten used to a wet climate regime Climate models: leaning toward less rainfall Historical trends: more rainfall (11%-12% per century) What s causing the historical trend? Is it temporary, permanent, or growing? n-g@tamu.edu
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