Australian Population & Migration Research Centre Policy Brief

Transcription

1 Australian Population & Migration Research Centre Policy Brief Vol. 1, No. 9 September, 2013 DYNAMICS OF SOUTH AUSTRALIA S POPULATION By Kelly McDougall & George Tan South Australia s population has experienced significant change over the last five years and even more substantial changes are expected over the next two decades. Understanding the extent and nature of change in the size, composition and distribution of the South Australian population is an important fundamental basic need for the formulation of appropriate and effective policies for the development of the State and also for the delivery of services to South Australians. This brief will examine dynamics of South Australia s population and outline the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead. Some of the expected changes to South Australia s population over the next two decades include; large scale retirement of baby boomers from the workforce (currently 43 percent of the South Australian workforce), the influx of permanent and temporary immigrants, the impact of the mining boom, structural change in the economy, climate and other environmental changes, as well as wider national and international economic and social changes. This will incorporate changes not only in size and growth across the state but also in composition. Key emerging trends to influence South Australia s population growth The level of international migration to South Australia. The extent to which efforts to increase population density in built up areas are successful. Patterns of mobility within the baby boomer cohort as they retire, not entirely understood at this stage. What will baby boomers do when they leave the workforce age-in-place, downsize within their local community or move to high amenity sea change or tree change areas? The Mining Boom, which will not only influence mining areas but also other areas as a result of a fly-in-fly out work culture. Food Security Issues, with an increased emphasis on agriculture and agriculture processing. Climate Change and environment factors influencing where (and how) people live and work. Areas of SA identified as having future growth are: Within Adelaide both peripheral suburbs and some inner suburbs as policies of urban infill, gentrification, transit-oriented developments, etc increase in importance. Outside Adelaide peri-urban areas around Adelaide, sea change and tree change communities, mining areas and some regional cities. Areas of SA that are predicted to be more stable in terms of growth are: Middle suburbs of Adelaide. Agriculture based and pastoral based areas.

2 Projected Percentage Growth South Australia s changing population The most important resource of any area is its residents and knowing about their changing size, composition and distribution. Understanding how or why they are changing is absolutely fundamental to good governance at the local level. Ageing Over the next quarter century growth of the population aged 65+ will happen at a much greater rate than growth of the younger population in both metropolitan and regional areas (Figure 1). Growth of the younger old population (65-74 years) is expected to happen at a faster rate in the Adelaide capital city area compared to other regions of SA, and growth of the oldest populations (80+ years) is expected to be more rapid outside of the Adelaide capital city area. This has implications for some rural areas with limited or dispersed services; particularly as people aged over 80 are more likely to cease driving, live alone and have increasing levels of disability and need for care. All areas are expected to see a decline in the young working age (15-24 years) population in the next 10 years but this will be more pronounced outside of the Greater Adelaide Area. Changing Households and Families Understanding the social shifts in family and household formation processes is crucial for policymakers and service providers. Over the past 20 years there has been a 45 percent increase in the number of single parent households across the state, whose share of all households has increased from 9.4 to 10.7 percent (Table 2). Over the last two decades the share of single person and couples without children households have increased from 47.5 to 54.2 percent which is an indication of both the steadily rising divorce rate in the Western world, as well as the movement of baby boomers into older age. There is an increasing significance in new types of households such as same sex partners, blended families, group households which has particular implications for planners and policy makers in South Australia. Figure 1: South Australia: Projected Percent Change by Age (%) Greater Adelaide Capital City Area and Rest of State Adelaide Greater Capital City Area Rest of State TOTAL Age Source: Government of South Australia 2011 (derived from ABS 2006 Estimated Resident Population)

3 Table 1: Growth rates of household types in South Australia Household type Percent Number Percent Number Percent Change Couple with no Children 127, , Single Parent 46, , Couple with Children 189, , Other Family 6, , Single Person 110, , Other Non-Family (Group) 21, , Source: ABS Census data 1991, 2011 International migration and its effects Net overseas migration has increased significantly in the last decade and South Australia currently settles comparatively high proportions of both skilled and humanitarian visa holders. A number of indicators taken from the 2011 Census show the diversity of South Australia s population (see Table 2). Significantly 15 percent of the South Australian population speak a language other than English at home. More than a quarter of South Australians aged 65+ were born in a non-english speaking nation. The needs and preferences of CALD populations as they age and the implications remain unclear. Figure 2 shows that while the largest growth in number of international migrants is in more populous metropolitan areas of the state, some regional areas have also experienced net growth in the number of international migrants and in some areas even a small growth in numbers can have a large impact on the local community. South Australia has seen unprecedented settling of CALD migrants in non-metropolitan areas contributing to the growth of these areas. Table 2: Indicators of Multicultural Diversity, Australia and South Australia: 2011 Census South Australia Australia % born overseas % non-english-speaking overseasborn % mainly English-Speaking overseas-born % speaking language other than English at home % born in Asia % born in Sub-Saharan Africa % born in Europe % Australia-born with overseasborn parent % overseas-born not able to speak English at all or well % with a non-christian religion Source: ABS 2011 Census of Population and Housing Vulnerable populations There is strong evidence that the gap between the upper and lower ends of the income distribution is widening, creating significant challenges for some communities. The identification of groups vulnerable to exclusion, such as people who are poor, homeless or at risk of homelessness, disabled, Aboriginal, non- English speakers, aged and so forth in local areas is fundamental to the national social inclusion agenda. The Indigenous population of South Australia is one of the most disadvantaged subgroups. Some key demographic, economic and social characteristics of the Indigenous and total populations of South Australia at the 2011 population census are shown in Table 3.

4 Figure 2: Net International Migration , South Australian LGAs. Source: APMRC and ABS Census 2011

5 Table 3: South Australia: Indigenous and Total South Australia Population Selected Characteristics, 2011 Characteristic Indigenous Population South Australia Number 30,430 1,596,572 Growth Rate % of National Population Total Fertility Rate % Age Less Than % Aged % Unemployed % With Post School Education (15+) % Living Outside Adelaide Life Expectancy at Birth In Australia In Males Females Source: ABS 2006 and 2011 Censuses; ABS, Births Australia and Deaths Australia Of particular concern is the more than 10 year difference in life expectancy of the Indigenous population compared to the state average. The Indigenous population are also significantly worse off, on average in income, education, health and housing than the total population. With an ageing population, it is important to consider the relationship between age and likelihood of having a need for assistance and rising service demands. The number of people who require assistance with a core activity, for all ages, has increased in the past five years; from 73,400 (4.8 percent of the total South Australia population) in 2006 to 87,116 (5.5 percent of the total population) in Thus the demand on health services for older people, in LGAs with a large and growing number of older people, is likely to be substantial. Those on a low income may also be more vulnerable and are likely to be at the young and old ends of the age spectrum. Nearly one-third of all South Australians aged and 29 percent of those aged 65+ have an individual weekly income of $300 or less 1 (see Table 4). Table 4: Income by Age, South Australia 2011* n earn <$ % <$300/week *Place of enumeration data, Source: ABS 2011 Census data Migrants and recent international arrivals are also potentially vulnerable population sub-groups in South Australia. New arrivals from Afghanistan, China, Malaysia and Vietnam have higher rates of being on a low income compared to other recent arrivals and South Australia s population as a whole. A substantial number of international students come from China, Malaysia and Vietnam which helps to explain the low income of these groups. The birthplace groups who have mainly entered Australia on refugee/humanitarian visas (Afghanistan, Burma, Burundi, Somalia, Congo, Iraq, Sudan) and longer term, older Greek and Italian migrants are most highly represented on the list of overseas born on a low income for South Australia (Table 5). For some migrant groups, the rate of unemployment is substantially higher than the Australia born average of 2.8 percent in South Australia. Migrants from humanitarian backgrounds (Sudan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Iran) and selected Asian countries have high rates of unemployment. Table 5: Country of Birth Highest Proportion with a Low Income*, South Australia 2011 n income <$300/week % COB <$300/week Bhutan Burundi Burma (Republic of the Union of Myanmar) Somalia Greece Congo, Democratic Republic of Afghanistan Iraq Italy South Sudan Australia born Source: ABS 2011 Census data *Includes only countries with 100+ people on a low income 1 This amount is less than half the full-time minimum wage ($606/week in 2012) and less than the senior s pension for a single person ($366/week in 2012).

6 Number of Persons Regional areas of the state There are a number of developments which indicate that some regional areas of the state may experience different growth patterns than the past. International migration plays a bigger role in population growth in the Adelaide area than natural increase; while outside of the Greater Adelaide Area natural increase plays a bigger role than international migration (Figure 3). However, it is notable that areas outside of the Greater Adelaide Area (non-metropolitan areas) experienced a small positive net internal migration from , while the Greater Adelaide Area experienced a loss. As highlighted in an earlier policy brief (Hugo et al ), the increase in national population growth rates, the effects of the mining boom in remote areas and lifestyle factors in sea change and tree change areas have contributed to the increase in population in remote areas; contrary to the stereotypes of regional Australia as being characterised by population decline. However, under any realistic scenario of the next four decades, most Australians will continue to live in major urban areas, especially the capital cities. Figure 3: South Australia: Components of Population Change Greater Adelaide Capital City Area, Rest of State and South Australia Total Population Greater Adelaide Rest of State South Australia Net Natural Increase Net Internal Migration Net International Migration Note: Net international migration represents the total number of overseas born moving into the area from including internal mobility of the overseas born Source: ABS Census data 2006, Population Change in Regional Australia, APRMC Policy Brief, v1 (n3).

7 IMPLICATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Consider population changes at the local level Population changes at a local government level can vary significantly from those at national or state levels so that relative levels of demand and need for particular services can vary. Moreover, while population change at national and state levels is always slow and incremental, change can be more volatile at a local level. Focus on rates of growth or decline of key sub-groups It is important to focus not just on overall growth rates but the growth/decline rates of key sub groups in the local population, e.g. dependent children, young adults, the working age, the older population, CALD groups or people on a low income. For most areas their fastest growing group will be the population aged over the next 10 years, as the baby boomers reach older age. Along with this there will be declines or stability in the number of young families. View population ageing as an opportunity and a challenge Over the next quarter century the number of South Australians aged 65 years and over will double, as will their ratio to the working age population. South Australian LGAs will differ largely in the level and timing of growth of the older population, and this is a particular issue in non-metropolitan areas where the proportion of the community aged 65+ years is greater. There is a need to see ageing as an opportunity for communities, not just an increased pressure on health and aged care services. Plan innovatively for changing households South Australia s households are also becoming more diverse and complex in their structure and functioning, hence, understanding the family and household formation process is crucial for policymakers, service providers and councils. With an increasing mismatch between household composition and housing stock, there is a need for innovative approaches to overcome housing affordability issues and need. With more than a quarter of baby boomers moving into older age as singles there is a potential for releasing family housing stock by providing real opportunities for downsizing to baby boomers. Recognise the changing ethnic diversity of different areas of the state For South Australia the composition of immigrants today is much more diverse than it ever has been, and in line with the increasing diversity in new migrant groups some metropolitan and non-metropolitan LGAs are undergoing dramatic shifts in the ethnic composition of their communities. Multiculturalism in a non-metropolitan setting raises new opportunities for LGAs but also has its challenges. There is a need to establish a better link between federal and state immigration institutions and local government to support this new changing face of rural and regional South Australia. Utilise novel approaches to engage vulnerable populations Social inclusion issues are most striking at community levels because they affect the day to day lives of people. It is at the local level that so much can be done to achieve greater inclusion, engagement and participation from excluded groups. Additionally, the potential for information/communication technologies to be used to reduce the isolation of excluded groups is enormous and local government is critical in this. Furthering our understanding of the extent to which different groups have the capacity to use this technology to access services and breakdown isolation is important. Support sustainable growth in regional areas There are a number of developments which indicate that some regional areas may experience different growth patterns than the past. Previous research has demonstrated conclusively that any attempt to artificially to stimulate the economies of regions or centres, where there is no potential for developing self-sustaining growth, is doomed to failure. However, mining, tourism and other sectors which have a strong non-metropolitan presence have become increasingly important and it would seem to be emerging developments would provide some regional areas the potential for such sustainable growth. Edited by Arusyak Sevoyan Australian Population and Migration Research Centre School of Social Sciences Room G17, Ground Floor, Napier Building The University of Adelaide South Australia 5005 Telephone ; Fax: