Beyond 2011: Administrative Data Sources Report: The English School Census and the Welsh School Census

Transcription

1 Beyond 2011 Beyond 2011: Administrative Data Sources Report: The English School Census and the Welsh School Census February 2013 Background The Office for National Statistics is currently taking a fresh look at options for the production of population and small area socio-demographic statistics for England and Wales. The Beyond 2011 Programme has been established to carry out research on the options and to recommend the best way forward to meet future user needs. Improvements in technology and administrative data sources offer opportunities to either modernise the census process, or to develop an alternative by re-using existing data already held within government. Since methods for taking the traditional census are already relatively well understood most of the research is focussing on how surveys can be supplemented by better reuse of administrative data already collected from the public. The final recommendation, which will be made in 2014, will balance user needs, cost, benefit, statistical quality, and the public acceptability of all of the options. The results will have implications for all population-based statistics in England and Wales and, potentially, for the statistical system as a whole. About this paper This paper is one of the Source Reports series looking at the use of existing administrative data sets and Beyond 2011's assessment of the quality & potential use as an administrative data source. This report focuses on School Census data for England and Wales. Another paper in the Sources series, Beyond 2011 Administrative Data Sources Report: Electoral Register (S2) is being published alongside this report. This document is one of a series of papers to be published over coming months. These will report our progress on researching and assessing the options, discuss our policies and methods and summarise what we find out about individual data sources. For more information Search Beyond or contact : beyond2011@ons.gov.uk Crown Copyright 2013 Beyond 2011 : Administrative Data Sources Report: The English School Census and The Welsh School Census

2 Table of Contents 1 Executive Summary Introduction Background Potential data source an overview Selection of data source Data collection of the English and Welsh School Censuses Overview of the data ONS receives Overview of the School Census extract Data quality ONS quality checks Relating the English and Welsh School Censuses to the population Geographical variation Linkability Sex ratios in the extract Comparison between the 2011 School Census count and the 2011 Census estimates National level comparisons - total population Sex ratio comparisons Local authority comparisons Local authorities where the School Census count shows a lower count than the 2011 Census estimates Local authority examples Further considerations and summary Future changes Conclusions Appendix A: Description of Variables contained in the spring 2011 School Census extract supplied to ONS Appendix B: English and Welsh School Census Count comparisons with 2011 Census estimates by age and sex Beyond 2011 Administrative Data Sources Report: The English School Census and The Welsh School Census 1

3 1 Executive Summary This report presents research reviewing the scope and quality of the English School Census and the Welsh School Census as potential sources of data for use within the Beyond 2011 Programme by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The English School Census contains a list of all pupils attending state schools in England. The Welsh School Census contains a list of all pupils attending state schools in Wales. Both the English School Census and the Welsh School Census have a high level of population coverage for children aged five to 15 years. However there are underlying conceptual differences between the School Censuses and the usually resident population (the key population for Beyond 2011 purposes). One of the main definitional differences is the omission of pupils from non-state education. These include those attending independent schools, home working or educated other than at school (EOTAS). The main findings from comparing the 2011 English School Census (reference date of 20 January 2011) and the Welsh School Census (reference date of 18 January 2011) with 2011 Census data (reference date of 27 March 2011) are: at the national level, for five to 15 year olds, the 2011 Census exceeds the 2011 English School Census by 7.9 per cent. For Wales, the 2011 Census population estimates exceeds the 2011 Welsh School Census by 3.7 per cent. The difference between the School Censuses and the 2011 Census estimates reduces further on the inclusion of independent schools data at a national level; a 1.6 per cent difference between the two sources for England and a 1.9 per cent difference for Wales. at the local authority level the English and Welsh School Census count is within three per cent of the 2011 Census estimates in 19 per cent of local authorities. 38 per cent of local authorities were within five per cent of the 2011 Census estimates and 70 per cent of local authorities were within ten per cent of the 2011 Census estimates. there is considerable variation in the results when the data are compared by local authority, age and sex, highlighting that the overall difference impacts in different ways locally. Whilst there are some definitional differences between the English and Welsh School Censuses and the usually resident population, they will be an important source for Beyond 2011 because they: have good quality data with negligible levels of duplication and missing data have a unique identifier (pupil matching reference/ unique pupil number) allowing for anonymised longitudinal linkage (with previous years School Censuses) are produced in a comparable way across all areas of England and Wales, albeit with different processes in both countries In summary, both the English School Census and the Welsh School Censuses provide broad coverage of children aged five to 15 within England and Wales, and should prove to be an important source of data for the Beyond 2011 Programme. Beyond 2011 Administrative Data Sources Report: The English School Census and The Welsh School Census 2

4 2 Introduction The principle of Beyond 2011 is relatively simple the Programme is investigating the best way of producing the population and small area socio-demographic statistics needed to support the effective administration of the country. We are carrying out a programme of research looking at all of the possible approaches to producing this data, then assessing each of these against an agreed set of criteria in order to help us decide on the best way forward. This document, S3: Administrative Data Sources Report (The English School Census and the Welsh School Census) is one in a series of detailed assessments setting out the results of reviews of individual sources. The following Administrative Data Sources Reports have already been published; S1: Administrative Data Sources Report (NHS Patient Register); S2: Administrative Data Sources Report (Electoral Register). We anticipate that further reports will be published including:- S4: Administrative Data Sources Report (Higher Education Student Data). S5: Administrative Data Sources Report (Data from DWP/HMRC systems); In making use of data from administrative sources, we need to understanding the processes and procedures associated with the collection, collation, processing and validation of the information and the implications these processes may have for the underlying quality of the data. In particular, it is important to take account of the differences between data collected for administrative and statistical purposes and, where necessary, to make allowances for differences in data definitions and classifications as well as variations in timeliness and reference points. This report brings together this information with a quantitative comparison of the School Census for England and the School Census for Wales and the 2011 Census results to inform the use of these datasets within the Beyond 2011 Programme. 3 Background All of the indications are that the census held in 2011 has been highly successful but there are clear signs that taking the census is becoming increasingly challenging and costly. The dynamic nature of populations, advances in information technology and demand for more frequent and more detailed statistics are driving changes in methods. This trend can be seen across many developed countries. ONS set up the Beyond 2011 Programme in April 2011 to take a fresh look at options for meeting future user needs for population and small area socio-demographic statistics. The Beyond 2011 Programme is studying a range of statistical options including: census-type solutions; administrative data solutions; survey solutions Beyond 2011 Administrative Data Sources Report: The English School Census and The Welsh School Census 3

5 Since census type solutions are already relatively well understood the majority of the Programme s research work is focussed on investigating ways of making more use of existing administrative datasets combined with targeted surveys. Recommendations on the way forward, to be made in 2014, will be informed not only by the statistical viability of the potential solutions, but also by a full understanding of user requirements, public burden, costs and public acceptability. Evaluating the quality of administrative data sources that may be used within the Beyond 2011 programme is a key element of the research. The outcomes will inform the benefits and challenges associated with using these data sources. 4 Potential data source an overview There are two administrative sources currently available to ONS relating to pupils in state education in England and Wales: The English School Census The Welsh School Census (Pupil Level Annual School Census) The English School Census The English School Census includes all pupils attending state maintained schools 1 in England (those maintained by the Department for Education or local authorities). These include nursery, primary, secondary and special schools, middle schools deemed as primary or secondary, city technology colleges, academies, direct grant nurseries, special schools both maintained and nonmaintained and free schools. Under section 537A of the Education Act 1996, all state maintained schools are legally required to complete the School Census (Department for Education 2012). The English School Census data is used within central and local government in order to allocate funding and assess changes in education policy. The English School Census extract provided to ONS, contains approximately seven and a half million records, as at January 2011, extracted from around 22,000 schools (Department for Education 2011a), providing information on pupil matching reference, name, home address (including postcode), date of birth and ethnicity. The Welsh School Census (Pupil Level Annual School Census) The Welsh School Census (Pupil Level Annual School Census) contains all pupils attending state maintained primary, secondary, nursery and special schools in Wales. Under sections 537A (1) and (2) and 569(4)and(5) of the Education Act 1996 all Welsh state maintained schools are legally required to complete the Welsh School Census once a year (Welsh Government 2008). The data are used by the Welsh Government for education policy and allocation of funding. The Welsh School Census extract provided to ONS, contains just under half a million records, as at January 2011, extracted from around 1,700 state maintained schools in Wales (Welsh Government 2011a), providing pupil level information on unique pupil identifier, name, post code of home address, date of birth and ethnicity. 1 Includes non maintained special schools Beyond 2011 Administrative Data Sources Report: The English School Census and The Welsh School Census 4

6 4.1 Selection of data source As the Beyond 2011 Programme is considering options for producing population and small area socio-demographic statistics for England and Wales, both the English and Welsh School Censuses will be assessed in this report. 4.2 Data collection of the English and Welsh School Censuses The English School Census In England, state maintained schools are responsible for completing the school census three times a year; once for each term of the academic year; autumn (August), spring (January) and summer (June). The main census is taken in the spring term. From 2011 the spring census is the only one of the three censuses to collect information on ethnicity, pupil address, school address and special school characteristics (Department for Education 2011b). Pupil level data is entered on to the school s management information system throughout the year, with additional information collected from pupils and parents/guardians as required. On the school census day, relevant data are extracted from the school s management information system. Once the data are approved, a summary report is generated which is then approved by the head teacher and both the data and summary report are submitted to the Department for Education, in some cases via the local authority. For City Technology Colleges and Academies, submissions are made directly to the Department for Education via the COLLECT system, as these schools do not fall under the jurisdiction of local government (Department for Education 2011b). The Welsh School Census In Wales, state maintained schools are responsible for completing the Welsh School Census, once a year in January. Pupil data is entered on the schools management information system throughout the year with additional information collected from parents/guardians and pupils where applicable. Once the data are approved a school summary report is generated, which is then authorised by the head teacher, and both the data and summary report are sent to the responsible local authority via a secure online system, the Data Exchange Wales Initiative (DEWI). The local authorities then pass the data to the Welsh Government where all Welsh School Census data is collated by the Welsh Government School Statistics Team (Welsh Government 2011b). Quality procedures England A number of quality checks are conducted on the data submitted for the English School Census. On census day, relevant data are extracted from the schools management information system. Any resulting queries or errors, such as missing fields, are generated and the school is then responsible for addressing and rectifying errors. Following this the final data are then produced alongside a school summary report, for example number of pupils by age and sex. The schools administration and head teacher are then required to check the accuracy and completeness of the data. This includes checking sections that may reveal evidence that some pupil data was not entered prior to generating the return, as well as making comparisons with previous year s school census data (Department for Education 2011b). Beyond 2011 Administrative Data Sources Report: The English School Census and The Welsh School Census 5

7 Following authorisation, the summary report and data are sent either, directly to Department for Education or to the responsible local authority, who conduct sense checks on the number of pupils and resolve duplicates where there are two records with different Unique Pupil Identifiers (UPI) relating to the same person (Department for Education 2011c). The COLLECT system identifies all duplicate UPIs within the specified local authority and duplicates across all local authorities, so all duplicates can be resolved across the country (Department for Education 2010). Once a duplicate is identified a local authority will need to contact other local authorities to resolve the duplications, if necessary. Examples of how to resolve duplications include changing of a pupil s registration code (main or subsidiary), deleting a pupil record if a pupil was entered in error, moving a pupil from the roll, creating an exclusion record instead of the pupil record, or changing the UPI if entered incorrectly (Department for Education 2010). Welsh School Census Schools in Wales have similar procedures for checking their pupil data before submission to the Welsh Government. Prior to the data being submitted, schools are required to ensure that all relevant pupil record level information is entered on to their management information system. Once the return is made the software conducts a range of validation checks on the data, producing a school summary report which includes pupil counts by age and sex. The schools are required to check the summary report, particularly for evidence of missing pupil data and once authorised by the head teacher, the data are then sent along with the school summary report via the online DEWI to the responsible local authority. The DEWI provides similar functions to the school s management information systems, but also carries out additional validation checks such as checking for duplicates. Once all data have been collected, summary statistics are sent to the local authorities for final sign off (Welsh Government 2011c). 4.3 Overview of the data ONS receives Both the English and Welsh School Census extracts provided to ONS contain a subset of demographic information on pupils, such as name, date of birth, gender, home postcode and ethnicity. They also contain information on the names and addresses of the schools the data relate to. The variables supplied to ONS can be found in Appendix A. Access to these data sources were authorised using data sharing legislation in the Statistics and Registration Services Act The Department for Education collates the English School Census data for the spring collection and delivers the data in one file to ONS in July of the same year. The total number of records for the spring English School Census in 2011 was approximately seven and a half million. The Welsh Government School Statistics Team collates the Welsh School Census data and delivers the yearly extract (spring) to ONS in July of the same year. The total number of records for the Welsh School Census in 2011 was just under half a million. Whilst the age range of pupils on the English and Welsh School Censuses can vary, compulsory education in England and Wales is limited to five to 15 year olds. Given that age groups outside of this range are likely to have differing levels of coverage, and that the most complete data available will be for those of compulsory school age, this report will focus on those aged five to 15 on the English (6,176,200 records) and Welsh School Censuses (364,200 records). Beyond 2011 Administrative Data Sources Report: The English School Census and The Welsh School Census 6

8 Count (thousands) 5 Overview of the School Census extract Figure 1 shows the number of pupils in the spring 2011 English School Census dataset aged five to 15 2 with notable features being the dip in numbers of children aged eight to ten in 2011 which reflects declining numbers of births between 1997 and 2002 followed by an increase between 2002 and Figure 1: English School Census for pupils aged 5 to 15 years Age Source: English School Census, 2011 Figure 2 shows the number of pupils in the 2011 Welsh School Census dataset aged 5 to 15 2 with notable features being a dip in the number of children aged 7 to 9 which reflects declining numbers of births between 1997 and 2002 followed by an increase between 2003 and Age from the School Census has been calculated as at 27 March 2011 so that comparisons can be made with the 2011 Census. See section 6. Beyond 2011 Administrative Data Sources Report: The English School Census and The Welsh School Census 7

9 Count (thousands) Figure 2: Welsh School Census for pupils aged 5 to 15 years Age Source: Welsh School Census, Data quality ONS quality checks Once ONS receive the data, a number of quality checks are carried out on the complete data extract. These checks focus on identifying any duplicates or missing data items within the dataset. Duplication: As mentioned in section 4.2 in both the English and Welsh School Censuses local authorities try to resolve duplicates where more than one Pupil Matching Reference (England) or UPI (Wales) are found or where there are two different identifiers relating to the same person. ONS also check for such duplicates on receiving both school census extracts, and in 2011, identified 830 duplicate cases on the 2011 English School Census. These cases have been noted and taken into account when conducting analysis using this dataset. No duplicates were found on the 2011 Welsh School Census. Missing Data: Tables 2a and 2b show the percentages of missing/non missing data for the January 2011 English and Welsh School Censuses respectively, for each of the demographic variables considered key for the Beyond 2011 Programme. These tables refer to children of all ages. Table 2a shows that for the English School Census there is less than one percent of missing data for ethnicity and postcode, however in both cases this relates to under 5s only, and therefore does not impact on the core five to 15 age group. There were also a negligible number of missing values for Pupil Matching Reference across age groups, amounting to less than 0.01% of all English School Census records. Beyond 2011 Administrative Data Sources Report: The English School Census and The Welsh School Census 8

10 Table 2(a) January 2011 Extract: English School Census key variable completeness Variable Name Variable Type Non Missing Missing Forename Character % 0.00% Surname Character % 0.00% Date of Birth Numeric % 0.00% Gender Character % 0.00% Address 1 Character % 0.00% Postcode Character 99.96% 0.04% Ethnicity Character 94.48% 0.52% Date of Entry in to school Pupil Matching Reference Numeric % 0.00% Character >99.99% <0.01% Table 2b shows that for the Welsh School Census postcode and ethnicity are the only two variables which contain missing data. In both instances this amounts to less than one per cent of all Welsh School Census records and is limited to under five year olds. Again this does not therefore impact on the core five to 15 age group. No duplicates were found for the UPN for all ages, and hence variables for ages five to 15 are complete. Table 2(b) January 2011: Extract Welsh School Census key variable completeness Variable Name Variable Type Non Missing Missing Forename Character % 0.00% Surname Character % 0.00% Date of Birth Numeric % 0.00% Gender Character % 0.00% Postcode Character >99.99% <0.01% Ethnicity Character 99.38% 0.62% Date of Entry in to school Unique Pupil Number Numeric % 0.00% Character % 0.00% Validity of the Ethnicity variable: Both the English and Welsh School Censuses collect data on ethnicity for pupils aged five and over. This is currently the only administrative data source Beyond 2011 Administrative Data Sources Report: The English School Census and The Welsh School Census 9

11 available to ONS which provides information on ethnicity. Schools are required to request ethnicity information from parents/guardians and or pupils, although compliance is not mandatory (Department for Education 2011d) Relating the English and Welsh School Censuses to the population This section explores how the coverage of the English and Welsh School Censuses relates to the Beyond 2011 target of measuring the usually resident population. The School Censuses reflect the population of maintained schools. This is different from the usually resident population. These definitional differences result in some children appearing in the School Censuses who are not considered usual residents, and others who are usual residents being excluded. In January 2011 the English School Census count for five to 15 year olds (6,176,200) was 7.9 per cent lower than the 2011 Census population estimate for the same age group (6,704,400). The Welsh School Census contained 364,200 records for five to 15 year olds, in January 2011, which was 3.7 per cent lower than the 2011 Census population estimate for the same age group in Wales (378,000). Definition of Usually Resident: According to ONS (2009) a usual resident of the UK (for census output purposes only) is anyone who, on 27 March 2011 was (i) in the UK and has stayed or intended to stay in the UK for a period of 12 months or more or; (ii) had a permanent UK address and was outside the UK and intended to be outside the UK for less than 12 months. There are many reasons why a child may appear on the English or Welsh School Censuses but not be deemed as usually resident and vice versa, according to the census definition. For example, children of migrants may register their child in a school irrespective of whether they intend to remain in England or Wales for more than 12 months. Thus, they will appear on the School Census but not on the 2011 Census. Furthermore the spring 2011 English and Welsh School Censuses both relate to pupils in state education in January 2011, whilst the 2011 Census estimates relate to 27 March The difference in time of enumeration could affect national and local authority comparisons. For instance, there will be children whose home address will have changed in the period between school census day and 27 March In addition the usually resident population will include all five to 15 year olds regardless of type of educational institution attended, whilst the school census only includes those registered in state maintained schools. The relationship between the populations covered by both the English and Welsh School Censuses and the usually resident population is illustrated in Figure 3. Here, we see that for a specific area at a specific time, the population covered in the two School Censuses may differ from the usually resident population as a result of: the inclusion of children staying in England and Wales for less than 12 months; the omission of children in non state maintained education; people remaining registered after they have emigrated or died; issuing a new pupil number to someone who is already on the list. Beyond 2011 Administrative Data Sources Report: The English School Census and The Welsh School Census 10

12 Figure 3: Relating the English and Welsh School Census to the Usual Resident Population in Area j at Time t Attendance lag for immigrants Usually resident Population 5-15 School Census 5-15 Short term immigrants Change of details (lag for inmigrants to area j) Change of details for out-migrants from area j Children attending Independent and general hospital schools and home schooled. In Wales, in addition Pupil referral units Usual residents at a state maintained school and non maintained special school Multiple pupil matching reference/unique pupil number - Source: ONS 2012 Some of the main definitional differences for both the English and Welsh School Censuses are discussed further below. Omission of pupils from non-state education: The largest group of children not covered by the English and Welsh School Censuses are those in independent schools. In England in 2011 there were approximately 423,400 children aged five to 15 attending independent schools, and in Wales the corresponding figure was approximately In addition pupils registered in general hospital schools, pupil referral units (Wales only which is covered by a separate pupil census Educated Other Than At School, EOTAS ), and pupils being educated by early year providers and alternative schooling such as home schooled, are not covered by the English and Welsh School Censuses Independent schools 3 are required to submit some information, to the Independent School s Council, although the data does not contain the same detail as the English and Welsh School Censuses. In particular independent schools do not provide information on pupil s home address or postcode. In addition only independent schools registered with Independent Schools Council affiliated bodies are required to complete the Independent Schools Census (Independent School s Council). 3 Only schools which are members of Independent Schools Council affiliated bodies are required to submit information to the Independent Schools Council e.g. Independent Association of Prep Schools and Independent Schools Association Beyond 2011 Administrative Data Sources Report: The English School Census and The Welsh School Census 11

13 Duplicate records: As discussed in section 4.2 record duplication can result in a child having more than one identifier (Pupil Matching Reference or UPI). Whilst local authorities resolve nearly all such duplicates, recent ONS analysis found 830 remaining on the spring English School Census. The effect of this is therefore negligible. Migrants: There are two ways in which migration may impact on the relationship between the School Censuses and the usually resident population. The first is the attendance of short term migrant children at school. Short term migrants (those migrants not intending to reside in the UK for 12 months or more) are not included in the usually resident population, but the children may attend school and appear on the School Censuses. The second is the time difference between the date of the School Censuses and the reference date 4 at which the usually resident population is measured. Migration (both international and within the UK) may also have a small impact on the comparisons as a result, as although the school management information will be updated quickly any update after the extract is taken will not feed through until the following year. Cross border movement: The English and Welsh School Censuses count all pupils in maintained schools irrespective of home address. Therefore there are some instances where children living in England will be included on the Welsh School Census and children living in Wales included on the English School Census. Annual estimates for cross border movement indicate that around 1900 pupils live in Wales but attend school in England and hence are included on the English School Census, whilst approximately 1600 pupils live in England but attend schools in Wales. Cross border movement between England and Wales will have a greater effect on those local authorities in close proximity to the border. However as the data available contains information about children s home address or postcode this should not have an impact on the comparisons when both the English and Welsh School Censuses are used together (Welsh Government 2010) Geographical variation Given the nature of quality checking that is undertaken geographical variations are likely to be minor. However the English and Welsh School Censuses are administered in schools in England and Wales. Therefore this could result in a variation in quality between the different schools/local authorities. Possible reasons for variations in data quality across schools and local authorities could include the level of parent and pupil compliance when the data are collected as well as resource and financial constraints, which could affect the level of quality checks conducted on the data at the local authority level. Whilst differences will largely be attributable to the accuracy of data collected at the school level, such variations are likely to affect specific variables for example ethnicity, rather than the counts of the number of pupils which are subject to thorough quality checking. This is also true at the country level as the English and Welsh School Censuses are administered by different bodies for England (Department for Education) and Wales (Welsh Government). This could cause small differences in data quality between the two countries. In addition education and training is devolved in Wales, which may result in long term risk of any different changes in policy, management or processes, which could lead to future incomparability between England and Wales Linkability The Pupil Matching Reference (England) and UPI (Wales) are unique enough to allow longitudinal linkage of the English and Welsh School Censuses i.e. permitting linkage of the School Census 4 The reference date is the date at which the usually resident population is being measured Beyond 2011 Administrative Data Sources Report: The English School Census and The Welsh School Census 12

14 from one year to the next. However, given that Pupil Matching References and Unique Pupil Numbers are not included on any other administrative source currently available to ONS, linkage using these identifiers will not be possible. Instead, linkage may be possible, using combinations of variables, such as name, date of birth and address, (postcode only in the case of the Welsh School Census). It is recognised that this raises concerns relating to the privacy of data about individuals and households and that steps need to be taken to ensure confidentiality of any data used. For this reason, Beyond 2011 is currently developing methods to enable linkage with completely anonymised data through a number of pre-processing steps. The results of research to date are very promising and have been applied to current research. We will be discussing our approach with experts over the next few months and will publish more details of the methods later on in the year. 5.2 Sex ratios in the extract Figure 4 shows the sex ratios of the English School Census for years 2005, 2008 and Sex ratios are often used as a quality measure of data by age and sex as it is independent of the absolute numbers of males and females in a large population (Smallwood & De Broe 2009). Figure 4 shows the sex ratios as consistent across the three years and as expected from a large western developed country (around 105 boys per 100 girls). Beyond 2011 Administrative Data Sources Report: The English School Census and The Welsh School Census 13

15 Ratio (number of boys per 100 girls) Ratio (number of boys per 100 girls) Figure 4: Sex ratios of English School Census for years 2005, 2008 & 2011, for pupils aged 5 to 15 years Age Source: English School Census 2005, 2008, 2011 Figure 5 shows the sex ratios based on the Welsh School Census in 2005, 2008 and The sex ratios for Wales also appear to be relatively consistent across years with slight differences between the years seen at ages seven and eight and at 11 and 12. However this slight variability is consistent with the size of the population at each individual year of age in Wales. Figure 5: Sex ratios of Welsh School Census for years 2005, 2008 & 2011, for pupils aged 5 to 15 years Source: Welsh School Census 2005, 2008, 2011, Age Beyond 2011 Administrative Data Sources Report: The English School Census and The Welsh School Census 14

16 Count (thousands) 6 Comparison between the 2011 School Census count and the 2011 Census estimates Section explains the underlying conceptual differences between the English and Welsh School Censuses and the 2011 Census estimates of the population. In order to understand how the School Censuses may be useful in estimating the usually resident population it is important to compare the two data sources to understand how these conceptual differences translate into a numerical comparison. In this section both the English and Welsh School Censuses counts have been compared to the 2011 Census population estimates at the national and local authority level. The following analysis looks at the comparison of the 2011 Census population estimates (reference date of 27 March 2011) and the 2011 English School Census (reference date of 20 January 2011) and the 2011 Welsh School Census (reference date of 18 January 2011) for children aged five to 15 years on 27 March National level comparisons - total population For England and Wales as a whole the total population of five to 15 year olds for the 2011 School Censuses is lower than the 2011 Census estimates for England and Wales by 7.7 per cent. Figure 6 shows the comparison between the School Censuses and the 2011 Census estimates by single year of age. At all ages the census exceeds that of the School Censuses. From age eight onwards the difference between the two sources starts to increase with the greatest differences between the English and Welsh School Censuses and the 2011 Census estimates seen for 15 year olds (15 per cent). Figure 6: 2011 English and Welsh School Census counts versus 2011 Census estimates for England & Wales for 5 to 15 years School Censuses Census Age Source: English and Welsh School Censuses 2011, Census 2012 Beyond 2011 Administrative Data Sources Report: The English School Census and The Welsh School Census 15

17 Count (thousands) It should be noted that the slightly larger differences observed at ages five and 15 in Figures 6 to 10 may in part be attributable to the rules around compulsory school ages. However further analysis will be required to confirm this. In England, the total population aged five to 15 on the 2011 English School Census is lower than the 2011 Census population estimates by 7.9 per cent. Figure 7 shows the comparison between the two sources by single year of age. At all ages the 2011 Census population estimates exceeds the English School Census. The difference between the two sources is lowest between the ages of five and eight. Thereafter there is an incremental increase in the difference when moving from one age to the next. The greatest difference between the two sources is seen for 15 year olds at 12.5 per cent. Figure 7: 2011 English School Census count versus 2011 Census estimates for 5 to 15 years School Census Census Age Source: English School Census 2011, Census 2012 Figure 8 shows the comparison between the 2011 Welsh School Census and the 2011 Census population estimates for Welsh children aged five to 15. Overall the Welsh School Census is lower than the 2011 Census estimates by 3.7 per cent. Again the 2011 Census estimates exceed the 2011 School Census for Wales at all ages. From ages five to 13 there is a relatively small difference between the Welsh School Census and the 2011 Census estimates. The difference is greatest at age 14 (eight per cent). Beyond 2011 Administrative Data Sources Report: The English School Census and The Welsh School Census 16

18 Count (thousands) Count (thousands) Figure 8: 2011 Welsh School Census count versus 2011 Census estimates for 5 to 15 years School Census Census Age Source: Welsh School Census 2011, Census 2012 Figure 9 shows the counts for boys aged five to 15 on the English and Welsh School Censuses combined compared to the 2011 Census estimates. The overall difference between the 2011 School Censuses and the 2011 Census estimates for boys aged five to 15 was 7.7 per cent. As with the total population, there is a smaller difference between the 2011 School Censuses and the 2011 Census estimate in the younger ages. The greatest difference of 12.9 per cent is seen at age 15. Figure 9: 2011 England and Wales School Censuses (boys) compared to 2011 Census estimates for England and Wales for 5 to 15 years School Census Census Age Source: English and Welsh School Censuses 2011, Census 2012 Beyond 2011 Administrative Data Sources Report: The English School Census and The Welsh School Census 17

19 Count (thousands) Figure 10 shows the counts for girls aged five to 15 on the English and Welsh School Censuses compared to the 2011 Census estimates. The overall difference between the 2011 School Censuses and the 2011 Census estimates for girls aged five to 15 was 7.6 per cent. The pattern across the ages is similar to that seen for boys. The greatest difference is also seen at age 15 of 11.5 per cent. Figure 10: 2011 England and Wales School Censuses (girls) compared to 2011 Census estimates for England and Wales for 5 to 15 years School Censuses Census Age Source: English and Welsh School Censuses 2011, Census For further analysis on the comparison between the 2011 School Censuses and the 2011 Census estimates at the England national level and the Welsh national level see Appendix B. 6.2 Sex ratio comparisons Sex ratios at the national level Figure 11 compares the sex ratios from the English and Welsh School Censuses to those of the 2011 Census estimates for England and Wales. The sex ratios between the 2011 School Censuses and the 2011 Census estimates are very consistent across all ages. Beyond 2011 Administrative Data Sources Report: The English School Census and The Welsh School Census 18

20 Ratio (number of boys per 100 girls) Ratio (number of boys per 100 girls) Figure 11: Sex ratios for England and Wales comparing English and Welsh School Census counts to 2011 Census estimates for 5 to 15 year olds in England and Wales School Census Census Age Source: English and Welsh School Censuses 2011, Census 2012 Figure 12 shows a comparison of the sex ratios between the 2011 English School Census and the 2011 Census estimates for England. As with the England and Wales sex ratios, the sex ratios for England from both sources are strongly consistent with one another. Figure 12: Sex ratios from the 2011 English School Census & 2011 Census estimates School Census Census Age Source: English School Census 2011, Census 2012 Figure 13 shows the sex ratios between the 2011 Welsh School Census and the 2011 Census estimates for Wales. Again the sex ratios for both sources are fairly consistent although the sex ratios are slightly more variable by age than in England. This is expected given the numbers of boys and girls by single year of age in Wales. Beyond 2011 Administrative Data Sources Report: The English School Census and The Welsh School Census 19

21 Ratio (number of boys per 100 girls) Figure 13: Sex Ratios from 2011 Welsh School Census & 2011 Census estimates Source: Welsh School Census 2011, Census Local authority comparisons School Census Census Age The following local authority comparisons use pupil s domestic residence. When comparing the 2011 English and Welsh School Censuses with the 2011 Census estimates at the local authority level, the majority of local authorities show the English and Welsh School Census counts to be lower than the 2011 Census estimates. As previously discussed (in section 5.1.2) this is largely due to both the English and Welsh School Censuses only measuring those in state maintained schools and therefore does not include those pupils in independent schools or receiving alternative education. Figure 14 shows that in most local authorities the 2011 School Censuses are lower when compared to the 2011 Census estimates. The majority of local authorities (33 per cent) show the 2011 School Census as being under five per cent to less than ten per cent and under ten per cent (29 per cent) of the 2011 Census estimates. 19 per cent of local authorities show a difference of under three to less than five per cent and a further 19 per cent of local authorities show the two sources to be within three per cent of each other. Less than one per cent of local authorities show the 2011 School Census as exceeding the 2011 Census estimates by more than three per cent. Beyond 2011 Administrative Data Sources Report: The English School Census and The Welsh School Census 20

22 Percentage of local authorities Figure 14: Percentages of local authorities in the English and Welsh School Censuses, presented as a percentage difference to 2011 Census estimates Under 10% Under 5 to <10% Under 3 to <5% Within 3% Over 3 to <5% Over 5 to <10% Percentage difference between School Censuses count and 2011 Census Estimates Over 10% Source: English and Welsh School Censuses 2011, Census 2012 Map 1 highlights the difference between the countries of England and Wales when comparing the 2011 English and Welsh School Censuses counts with the 2011 Census estimates. When comparing the sources at the local authority level, the English School Census count is within three per cent of the 2011 Census estimates in 17 per cent of local authorities in England and 41 per cent of local authorities in Wales. This reflects in the larger proportion of pupils in independent schools in England compared to Wales. Map 1 also demonstrates that there is considerable variation in the differences between the School Censuses and the 2011 Census estimates at the local authority level. In England 31 per cent of local authorities have a School Census count which is at least ten per cent lower than the 2011 Census estimate. The majority of such authorities are in the south of England and are predominantly related to the location of independent schools. This is explained in greater detail in section 6.4. Beyond 2011 Administrative Data Sources Report: The English School Census and The Welsh School Census 21

23 Map 1: Percentage difference between 2011 English and Welsh School Censuses and the 2011 Census estimates by local authority Percentage difference from 2011 Census School Census over 10% lower 5 to 10% lower 3 to 5% lower Within 3% 3 to 5% higher 5 to 10% higher School Census over 10% higher Greater London Source: English and Welsh School Censuses 2011, Census 2012 Contains National Statistics data Crown copyright and database right 2013 Contains Ordnance Survey data Crown copyright and database right 2013 Beyond 2011 Administrative Data Sources Report: The English School Census and The Welsh School Census 22

24 6.4 Local authorities where the School Census count shows a lower count than the 2011 Census estimates The majority of local authorities in England and Wales show a higher count on the 2011 Census estimates when compared with the 2011 School Censuses. Figure 15 shows the ten local authorities with the largest differences between the School Censuses and the 2011 Census estimates for five to 15 year olds in England and Wales. The ten local authorities with the greatest percentage differences are all in England with 6 being in London. Kensington and Chelsea has the greatest difference between the two sources with the School Census counts of five to 15 year old children being 50 per cent lower than their 2011 Census estimates. Such marked differences between the School Census and the 2011 Census estimates can in part be explained by the number of children attending independent schools within these areas as these pupils are not included on the School Census. For instance Kensington and Chelsea have the largest number of independent school pupils in inner London whilst the City of London has only one state maintained school (primary) but four independent schools (Department for Education 2011e). Whilst the School Censuses provide information relating to the child s home address (postcode only in Wales), independent schools data only provides information on the school address. Therefore it is not possible to combine the School Census data and the independent schools data together at a local authority level, but this may be done at national level. This is because some pupils may attend an independent school in a different local authority to their home address. However by combining the data at the national level (as there will only be a small number of pupils who will travel across country boundaries to attend an independent school) it will be possible to compare the population of five to 15 year olds counted by the School Census and combined with the independent schools data with the 2011 Census estimates. In England where the English School Census was 7.9 per cent lower than the 2011 Census estimate, once independent schools data are included the difference is 1.6 per cent lower. In Wales where the Welsh School Census was 3.7 percent lower than the 2011 Census estimate, once independent schools data are included the difference is 1.9 per cent lower. On inclusion of the number of home schooled, this falls to 1.7 per cent below 2011 Census estimate (Welsh Government 2012). In addition, differences in Wales would be reduced further in future comparisons by inclusion of EOTAS data which would capture for example pupils in referral units. Beyond 2011 Administrative Data Sources Report: The English School Census and The Welsh School Census 23

25 Percentage Monmouthshire Powys Carmarthenshire Pembrokeshire The Vale of Glamorgan Percentage Kensington and Chelsea City of London Elmbridge Westminster Camden Richmond upon Thames Waverley Hammersmith and Fulham Rutland Tunbridge Wells Figure 15: Top ten local authorities in England and Wales where School Census count is lower than 2011 Census estimates Source: English and Welsh School Censuses 2011, Census 2012 Given that the ten local authorities from England and Wales with the greatest percentage difference between the two sources showed only English local authorities, Figure 16 shows the five local authorities with the greatest difference on the Welsh School Census. Monmouthshire has the greatest percentage difference between the Welsh School Census and the 2011 Census estimates in Wales followed by Powys. Powys is one of the Welsh local authorities with the greatest number of independent schools and Monmouthshire having the highest number of full time equivalent pupils in independent schools (11.4 per cent) (Welsh Government 2011c). Figure 16: Top five local authorities where Welsh School Census count is lower than 2011 Census estimates Source: Welsh School Census 2011, Census 2012 Beyond 2011 Administrative Data Sources Report: The English School Census and The Welsh School Census 24