1 The Economic Impact of Shale-Related Energy Resources Utica Summit IV Canton, OH October 11, 2016 The views expressed herein are those of the author and are not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland or of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
2 The experience of being disastrously wrong is salutary; no economist should be spared it, and few are. John Kenneth Galbraith
3 Outline Emergence of Shale-Related Energy Resources Estimated Economic Impact from Cracker Plants Assessing Economic Impact Estimates
4 Emergence of Shale-Related Energy Resources
5 Timeline, Shale Gas Development Large-scale natural gas production from shale began around 2000 in the Barnett Shale (N. Texas) By 2005, this play was producing almost 0.5 Tcf of natural gas per year out of total US production of about 19 Tcf Thereafter, producers moved to develop other shale plays Fayetteville Shale (northern Arkansas) Haynesville (eastern Texas and north Louisiana) Woodford (Oklahoma) Eagle Ford (southern Texas) Marcellus and Utica (northern Appalachia) so that by 2014, these plays produced 12 Tcf, or close to half of all US production Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.
6 In 2014, the US produced 26 Tcf of natural gas, with production expected to exceed 35 Tcf by 2025, because of shale. US Dry Natural Gas Production By Source
7 Marcellus is the major natural gas play, accounting for about 40% of shale-related production (16.5 Bcf/day) Marcellus
8 but Utica is 3 rd most productive play (3.7 Bcf/day; 9% of shale output), behind Eagle Ford and about the same size as Haynesville. Marcellus Utica
9 A little later, around 2010, there s a similar surge in oil production from shale and other rock formations.
10 The major plays are Eagle Ford and Baaken ( 1Mbp and 25% of tight output) and Permian ( 1.4Mbp and 36% of tight output). Bakken Eagle Ford Permian
11 More than 30 U.S. states overlie shale formations.
12 Major Tight-Oil Plays in US Baaken Permian Eagle Ford
13 Major Shale-Gas Plays in US Utica Marcellus Barnett Haynesville Eagle Ford
14 US production of oil and natural gas had been flat to falling in the mid to late 2000s US Energy Production Oil & Natural Gas Trillion cubic feet Oil Natural Gas
15 but the development of shale resources caused natural gas production to increase by more than 50 percent after 2005 US Energy Production Oil & Natural Gas ñ52% Trillion cubic feet Oil Natural Gas
16 and the production of crude oil to increase almost 90% since US Energy Production Oil & Natural Gas ñ52% ñ88% Trillion cubic feet Oil Natural Gas
17 EIA Estimates of Reserves EIA estimates that US has approximately 610 Tcf of technically recoverable shale gas resources 20 years of production at current rates if shale is only source of production US ranks second after Russia in shale oil resources EIA estimates that US has approximately and 59 billion barrels of technically recoverable tight oil resources 17 years of production at current rates if shale, sandstone, and limestone are the only sources of production. US ranks fourth after China, Argentina, and Algeria in shale gas resources
18 Estimated Economic Impact from Cracker Plants
19 Shell Cracker, Beaver County, PA On June 7, 2016, Shell announced its intention to build a petrochemical complex (including an ethane cracker) in Beaver County, Pennsylvania The proposed project will contain an ethylene manufacturing process and 3 polyethylene manufacturing units Construction costs are expected to equal roughly $6B, with about a quarter of that spent in the local area ($1.5B) Ongoing operation of the facility is expected to require roughly 400 to 500 employees The complex would be the first major U.S. project of its type built outside of the Gulf Coast-region in 20 years
20 PTT Cracker, Belmont County, OH In April 2015, PTT Global Chemical, based in Thailand, announced their interest in building a $5 billion ethane cracker complex in Belmont County, OH The company has already announced that it s investing $100M for engineering associated with the cracker complex The plant would be built on the site of an old coal-burning power plant operated by Akron-based FirstEnergy Corp. In July, FirstEnergy demolished a nearly 900-foot tall smoke stack where the proposed cracker plant would be constructed PTT officials plan to make a final decision on whether they will build the plant in the first half of 2017
21 Estimating Economic Impact Many studies attempting to assess economic impact use a technique called Input-Output Analysis This technique uses estimates of inter-industry linkages, i.e., estimates showing how purchases and sales are linked across industries The technique allows an analyst to assess both the direct impact of proposed project, as well as indirect and induced effects The indirect and induced impacts constitute multiplier effects
22 Input-Output Analysis: Direct, Indirect, and Induced Effects Direct Effects o e.g., jobs directly associated with a proposed project Indirect Effects o e.g., jobs associated with inputs to the project from suppliers Induced Effects o e.g., jobs for workers, such as those in restaurants and entertainment Multiplier : Direct Effect + Indirect Effect + Induced Effect/Direct Effect
23 Construction Phase Impact on PA Economy Source: Robert Morris University.
24 Construction Phase Impact on PA Economy Multiplier: 1.2 Impact: 0.1% Source: Robert Morris University.
25 Construction Phase Impact on PA Economy Multiplier: 1.2 Impact: 0.1% Multiplier: 1.6 Impact: 0.1% Source: Robert Morris University.
26 Operations Phase Impact on PA Economy Source: Robert Morris University.
27 Operations Phase Impact on PA Economy Multiplier: 3.0 Impact: 0.1% Source: Robert Morris University.
28 Operations Phase Impact on PA Economy Multiplier: 13.5 Impact: 0.1% Multiplier: 3.0 Impact: 0.1% Source: Robert Morris University.
29 Assessing Economic Impact Estimates
30 Estimates of the potential economic impact of shale gas development in Ohio vary widely. Kleinhenz & Associates (2011) Employment: 200K jobs by 2015 ( 3.9% of 12 employment) Output: $12.2B in additional GSP by 2015 ( 2.5% of 11 GSP) CSU/OSU/Marietta College (2011) Employment: 65K jobs by 2014 ( 1.3% of 12 employment) Output: $4.8B in additional GSP by 2014 ( 1% of 11 GSP) OSU (2012) Employment: 0 to 20K jobs by 2015 ( 0.4% of 12 employment) Income: Modest increases in per capita income
31 Differences in I/O Economic Impact Estimates Different direct-expenditure estimates Different assumptions about inter-industry linkages Differences in assumptions about whether workers are drawn from local area or migrate in and out of the area Differences in assumptions about how much spending occurs locally
32 Broader Concerns about I/O Economic Impact Estimates Estimated economic impacts are sensitive to assumptions Assumptions about how much money is spent locally are important Kleinhenz & Assoc. assumes a completed well costs $9.7M, while the CSU/OSU/Marietta College study reports a figure of $5.8M No accounting for displacement effects (i.e., no industry multiplier is negative) As natural gas displaces coal production, jobs in coal will be lost Higher costs for land and labor may make other industries uncompetitive, the so-called Dutch Disease Time distribution of jobs is generally ignored Are 1,000 jobs distributed as 1,000 for one year and then none, or 10 additional jobs for the next 100 years? No counterfactual
33 OSU Study: Approach 1 PA County Comparison 2005 Employment Growth Income Growth Population Per Capita Income '01-'05 '05-'09 '01-'05 '05-'09 Non-Drilling 255,508 32, % -0.4% 12.6% 13.6% Drilling 124,928 27, % -0.6% 12.8% 18.2% *: Prior to 2004, natural gas employment is similar in PA and OH, 14-16K.
34 OSU Study: Approach 1 PA County Comparison 2005 Employment Growth Income Growth Population Per Capita Income '01-'05 '05-'09 '01-'05 '05-'09 Non-Drilling 255,508 32, % -0.4% 12.6% 13.6% Drilling 124,928 27, % -0.6% 12.8% 18.2% *: Prior to 2004, natural gas employment is similar in PA and OH, 14-16K. Employment growth from 2005 to 2009 is worse in drilling counties
35 OSU Study: Approach 1 PA County Comparison 2005 Employment Growth Income Growth Population Per Capita Income '01-'05 '05-'09 '01-'05 '05-'09 Non-Drilling 255,508 32, % -0.4% 12.6% 13.6% Drilling 124,928 27, % -0.6% 12.8% 18.2% *: Prior to 2004, natural gas employment is similar in PA and OH, 14-16K. Employment growth from 2005 to 2009 is worse in drilling counties However, the p.p. change was much less in drilling counties
36 OSU Study: Approach 1 PA County Comparison 2005 Employment Growth Income Growth Population Per Capita Income '01-'05 '05-'09 '01-'05 '05-'09 Non-Drilling 255,508 32, % -0.4% 12.6% 13.6% Drilling 124,928 27, % -0.6% 12.8% 18.2% *: Prior to 2004, natural gas employment is similar in PA and OH, 14-16K. Employment growth from 2005 to 2009 is worse in drilling counties However, the p.p. change was much less in drilling counties Income growth was clearly better in drilling counties
37 OSU Study: Approach 2 Drilling and non-drilling counties may be differ in other ways, so researchers try to create treatment and control groups
38 OSU Study: Approach 2 Drilling and non-drilling counties may be differ in other ways, so researchers try to create treatment and control groups Match high-drilling counties in NE and S with counterpart counties based on similar income, population, and employment
39 OSU Study: Approach 2 Drilling and non-drilling counties may be differ in other ways, so researchers try to create treatment and control groups Match high-drilling counties in NE and S with counterpart counties based on similar income, population, and employment Group 1 Group 2
40 OSU Study: Approach 2 Mixed results for employment Stronger growth since 04 for mining counties in S Weaker growth since 04 for mining counties in NE
41 OSU Study: Approach 2 Per capita income growth is stronger in both groups in mining counties
42 OSU Study: Approach 3 Within-county comparison, using all PA counties Did a county that increased drilling activity grow more rapidly from than it did from 01-05? Employment: Change in wells not statistically significant Income: Change in wells produces modest positive impact
43 Differing Economic Impact Estimates Kleinhenz & Associates Direct Expenditure (Mil.) $246 $1,442 $6,811 $12,381 $14,013 Jobs Supported 3,794 21, , , ,138 Jobs per $1M spent CUS/OSU/Marietta College Direct Expenditure (Mil.) $230 $1,162 $3,917 $6,367 N/A Jobs Supported 2,275 12,150 40,606 65,680 N/A Jobs per $1M spent N/A OSU PA Natural Gas Related Employment Change, ,000 Multiplier (Assumed) 2 20,000 *: OSU study characterizes multiple of 2 as generous.
45 Differing Economic Impact Estimates Oil & Gas Employment Ohio Thousands K
46 Melick Study (Kenyon College) The relative price of natural gas has fallen by about two-thirds in the US since the mid-2000s For the sector as a whole, this price drop is estimated to induce a roughly 10 percent increase in capital expenditure and perhaps a 2 to 3 percent change in production and employment (14K to 21K new workers in Ohio) This is not trivial but by no means overwhelming
47 Conclusions Employment effects may be limited because both the energy and manufacturing sectors are generally very capital intensive The oil and gas industry is about 10 times more capital intensive than the US economy as a whole. (Alan Krueger, 2009) Income impact however appears to be modestly positive
48 The Economic Impact of Shale-Related Energy Resources Utica Summit IV Canton, OH October 11, 2016 The views expressed herein are those of the author and are not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland or of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
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