Newcastle upon Tyne. Local Migration Profile. Quarter

Transcription

1 Newcastle upon Tyne Local Migration Profile Quarter This document summarises the main migration trends and data that we can access for Newcastle upon Tyne up to 30 th September 2011 You are welcome to share this document within your own organisation, however, please be aware that the data on asylum and refugee numbers are sensitive and should be not be shared publicly. Any reproduction of the data contained in this document must acknowledge the original source. See annexe for list of abbreviations. For further information please contact Kieron Bridges, Regional Policy and Information Officer at kieron.bridges@newcastle.gov.uk or on

2 Summary of Migration trends in Newcastle upon Tyne Overall population change The local population was estimated at 292,179 people in 2010 (the mid year estimate ). This increase of just under 14,500 in the two years since 2008 gives Newcastle the largest population of the cities across the North East. The proportion of the population which is non-british (9%) and born outside of the UK (11%) are higher than the average across the North East (3.2%) and (5%) respectively. (See charts A and B) Chart A Chart B Population growth is affected by births, deaths and migration. During the past year, 85% of the population growth in Newcastle upon Tyne was due to net migration, while 15% was due to natural change (births and deaths) As chart C demonstrates, there has been considerable internal out-migration since 2004, but this has been exceeded by net international migration, which stood at 8,519 in

3 Chart C MYE = Mid Year Estimate The steadily increasing fertility rate in Newcastle (Chart D) is lower than the average across the North East. However, births to mothers who were born outside the UK are higher than the regional average (26% compared to 10.36%) (see chart E) Chart D Chart E 3

4 New international arrivals In 2010, between 6,500 and 10,400 new migrants arrived in Newcastle, who will stay more than a year ( long term migrants ); the formal estimate from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) gives the higher end of this range, compared to the Flag 4 (GP registrations of foreign nationals) administrative source. Flag 4 data measures (new) GP registrations to foreign nationals. It is probably the most comparable alternative source to the ONS estimates as GP registrations will capture all migrants (if they choose to register) and individuals are more likely to register if they are resident for more than 12 months. However, there are biases in the Flag 4 data due, in particular, to underregistration of young males which means that the comparison is not perfect. But a direct comparison of the pattern and trend evident from the two sources is a useful starting point when attempting to confirm the true scale of long-term migration to an area. (Chart F) The other administrative source on Chart F is for National Insurance Number (NINo) allocations to overseas nationals entering the UK which suggests a substantially lower figure of 4,130. The NINo data only records migrants over the age of 16, who are planning to work or claim benefits. In Newcastle the large number of foreign students (9,345) who arrive and do neither may partly explain this discrepancy. Chart F 4

5 While net migration to Newcastle was around 8,519 in 2010, future net migration is expected to be much lower as immigration decreases and emigration rises. This projection assumes no changes in policy or international conditions (Chart G). Chart G Around 9,600 migrants visited Newcastle for between one and 12 months (short-term migrants) including tourists (this latest estimate is for 2007) The overall number of new migrant workers arriving in Newcastle in 2010 was similar to 2009 at 4,090. This indicates a slight decline from the peak in 2007 of 4,530 (Chart H). The top country of origin is India, followed by China, and Pakistan (Chart I) 5

6 Chart H Chart I The number of new workers arriving from the 12 EU accession countries 1 is slightly lower than last year at 640, much lower than the peak of 1,310 in 2006 (Chart H Chart J shows the total number of A8 workers registered onto the Workers Registration Scheme and also highlights this downward trend. The total number of registrations received for 2010 was 215: considerably lower than the peak of 750 in

7 While the number of new migrant workers from EU accession countries has been very changeable during the past six years, there is a steady increase in workers from other countries arriving each year (Chart H) There is a large population of 9,645 international students undertaking Higher Education courses in Newcastle. This represents 50% of the international student population in the North East. It is worth noting that the data on students refer to the institutions at which they are studying rather than their usual residence, so this may produce some distortion of the local picture as they may reside in an authority area other than Newcastle throughout the course of their studies. 20.2% of primary school pupils and 14.2% of secondary school pupils in Newcastle in 2011 have a first language that is not English. This is very high compared to 5.7% and 3.8% respectively across the North East region. Chart J Asylum numbers In Q there were 480 asylum seekers accommodated in Newcastle representing around 30% of the asylum population of the North East region. The top country of origin is Iran followed by Zimbabwe, China and Afghanistan. Chart K demonstrates the trend of decline in supported asylum cases (which represent the main applicant) as well as supported asylum persons (which include all named dependents in Newcastle. It illustrates the steady decline in asylum seekers dispersed to Newcastle, which is reflective of the decreasing number of asylum applications being made nationally. 7

8 Chart K Chart L shows the split between section 95 supported cases and section 4 supported cases, both of which are declining, matching the regional picture of asylum dispersal. Chart L Refugees Data from the Refugee Integration and Employment Service indicates that there have been 313 people granted a positive granted "Refugee" status or "Humanitarian Protection" status since 1 October 2008 and whose asylum claim 8

9 was dealt with under the New Asylum Model (i.e. those who lodged an asylum claim since March 2007). 9

10 ANNEXE Abbreviations A8 APS ASYS DWP EU GOR GP HESA IPS LGA MYE NINo NIRS ONS PRDS RIES RMP SNPP STM TFR TIM UKBA WRS Accession countries: Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia Annual Population Survey Asylum Statistics (received from UKBA) Department for Works and Pensions European Union Government Office Regions General Practitioner Higher Education Statistics Agency International Passenger Survey Local Government Association Mid-year estimate (population) National Insurance Number National Insurance Recording System Office for National Statistics Patient Register Data Service Refugee Integration and Employment Service Regional Migration Partnership Sub-national Population Projections Short-term migration Total Fertility Rate Total International Migration United Kingdom Border Agency Workers Registration Scheme 10