HSBC Global Connections

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1 HSBC Global Connections HSBC Global Connections Report September 2014 Singapore Despite signs that global trade conditions are gradually improving, restructuring and stricter foreign worker policies are expected to generate a smaller lift in exports than during previous cyclical recoveries. Meanwhile, household spending and real estate-related sectors are also likely to be dampened by the ongoing correction in the housing market. These are expected to weigh on growth prospects both this year and next. The TCI has deteriorated slightly from six months ago despite respondents being more optimistic about the outlook for the global economy. Singapore s reliance on high-tech exports will remain strong over coming decades, hovering around 40% of total exports. Given the government s commitment to increasing productivity, high-tech imports will make up around a quarter of Singapore s merchandise import bill. Top five export destinations* Rank Malaysia China 2 China Malaysia 3 HK Indonesia 4 Indonesia HK 5 USA Vietnam Current trade position A broadening recovery in advanced economies should spur faster global trade in H and through next year. This will support Singapore s exports, notably re-exports. However, overall export growth will be lower than that experienced during previous cyclical recoveries as non-oil domestic exports continue to face a number of structural challenges that have led to offshoring of production and a move to more highly value added goods. * The table considers goods exports between the 25 countries in the sample.

2 Spotlight on technology High-tech goods exports account for 40% of Singapore s total goods exports. High-tech goods also account for around 25% of total goods imports. The high-tech sector is not only a key contributor to Singapore s export earnings but continued investment in high technology will be necessary to increase productivity and support future growth. While low value-add exports are facing a number of challenges through the loss of competitiveness, the outlook for Singapore s high-tech exports is positive. Given its strong foothold in ICT, high-tech exports will account for over 35% of total growth in Singapore s exports over The government is committed to raising productivity. Consistent with the forecast recovery in business investment we expect high-tech imports to accelerate over the coming years, enhancing the country s competitiveness. Global trade by sector for Singapore ( ) Growth (% year) Exports Imports High-tech goods Total Total imports and exports are the sum of imports and exports from the modelled countries Although the Trade Confidence Index decreased slightly from six months ago, the outlook for trade over the next six months remains on the whole very positive with around 90% of survey respondents expecting trading volumes to increase or at least remain at current levels. Singapore will continue to benefit from the faster growth in intra-regional trade (relative to global trade), particularly the growing corridor with China which has driven the increased use of the renminbi as a trade settlement currency with 16% of respondents now using it as a settlement currency. The government s commitment to raising productivity coupled with a forecast recovery in business investment will see trade in high-tech goods accelerate over the coming years, enhancing the country s competitiveness and supporting future growth. Joseph Arena Head of Global Trade and Receivables Finance, HSBC Singapore

3 The outlook for trade over the next six months remains on the whole very positive; around 90% of survey respondents see trading volumes at the very least remain at current levels, with half expecting an increase. That said, the number citing an increase in demand in key markets as the reason for rising volumes is down sharply from six months ago. HSBC Trade Confidence Index The TCI index decreased slightly from six months ago, from 115 to 110, but was still well above the neutral mark, indicating further growth in bilateral trade flows over the next six months. The decline comes despite respondents being more optimistic about the outlook for the global economy. This may reflect increasing concerns about squeezed profit margins this is likely to reflect a combination of rising domestic labour costs, a strong currency and increasing competitive pressures on domestic industry from fast-growing, lower-cost producers in the region H09 1H10 1H11 1H12 1H13 1H14 Positive Neutral Negative Corridors of choice Although Malaysia and China remain the two single largest bilateral trade partners for Singaporean businesses, a quarter of survey respondents identify countries outside of Asia as having the greatest opportunities for growth over the next six months. Nearly 50% of all respondents cited insufficient margins or profitability as a constraint on business growth, the highest percentage since the survey begun. Respondents also cited fluctuations in exchange rates and government regulations as key barriers to growth in trade volumes. The use of the renminbi as a trade settlement currency continues to rise, with just over 16% of respondents using it as a settlement currency. More trade partners are requesting settlement in RMB a trend which is likely to continue as bilateral trade with China increases. Source: HSBC TCI data Cross-border business 98% of all respondents reported trading activity with partners in the rest of Asia in H China retained the top position, with almost one-in-five citing it as the country they trade with most. The proportion of respondents citing North America as their main trade partner also rose, reflecting rising optimism over the US economic outlook. Regional export flows Growth (% year) Opportunities for business As a small, open economy with exports of goods and services equal to around 190% of GDP, the economic outlook for Singapore is inextricably linked to the prospects for global trade flows. Its status as a regional trading hub coupled with a very business friendly environment should facilitate robust export growth as Asia increasingly develops as a locus for international trade Asia ex. Japan Mid East & N Africa S S Africa Europe ex. Russia Latin America North America Aus, NZ & Oceania Source: Oxford Economics

4 Longer-term outlook Singapore faces a number of long-term challenges as it adjusts to the prospect of a sharp slowdown in labour force growth. While the government expects that the current immigration policy will encourage productivity growth as labour becomes more costly, history and international experience shows that raising productivity growth is difficult. Corridors to watch Singapore will continue to benefit from growing intraregional trade over the next couple of decades not only in terms of its domestically produced exports but also its ongoing role as a trade hub both in terms of financial services and re-exported merchandise goods. Merchandise exports to Asia (excluding Japan) are forecast to grow by an average 7% a year in the decade to By 2030, China will account for around 17% of total exports from Singapore, having overtaken Malaysia as the single largest bilateral trade partner in the process. Meanwhile, increasing trade with Indonesia, Hong Kong and Vietnam will mean that the US will slip in ranking from Singapore s fifth largest trading partner amongst the 25 economies in the HSBC Trade Forecast to eighth by China s insatiable demand for industrial machinery alone will account for around one-tenth of total export growth over the next two decades. Trade with countries outside Asia will still be important, though. For example, exports to the UAE and the Middle East more broadly are set to increase by at least 5% per annum between now and Singapore s projected sector contribution to increase in merchandise exports 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%0 Focus on Technology Singapore will continue to benefit from growing intra-regional trade over the next couple of decades not only in terms of its domestically produced exports but also its ongoing role as a trade hub both in terms of financial services and re-exported merchandise goods. Merchandise exports to Asia (excluding Japan) are forecast to grow by an average 7% a year in the decade to By 2030, China will account for around 17% of total exports fro Singapore, having overtaken Malaysia as the single largest bilateral trade partner in the process. Meanwhile, increasing trade with Indonesia, Hong Kong and Vietnam will mean that the US will slip in ranking from Singapore s fifth largest trading partner amongst the 25 economies in the HSBC Trade Forecast to eighth by China s insatiable demand for industrial machinery alone will account for around one-tenth of total export growth over the next two decades. Trade with countries outside Asia will still be important, though. For example, exports to the UAE and the Middle East more broadly are set to increase by at least 5% per annum between now and Conclusion Going forward, growth within the export sector is likely to be uneven as a number of manufacturing sub-sectors are suffering from a loss of competitiveness. In contrast, other sectors in the economy such as trade-related services should continue to benefit from the recovery in world trade and Singapore s position as a regional logistic hub. The high-tech sector will also benefit from a gradual recovery in world trade and a solid outlook for demand in the region. 0% Food & animals Beverages & tobacco Raw materials Source: Oxford Economics Mineral fuels Chemicals Manufactures Machinery and transport Other

5 About the HSBC Trade Forecast Modelled by Oxford Economics Oxford Economics has tailored a unique service for HSBC which forecasts bilateral trade for total exports/imports of goods, based on HSBC s own analysis and forecasts of the world economy to generate a full bilateral set of trade flows for total imports and exports of goods, and balances between 180 pairs of countries. Oxford Economics employs a global modelling framework that ensures full consistency between all economies, in part driven by trade linkages. The forecasts take into account factors such as the rate of demand growth in the destination market and the exporter s competitiveness. Exports, imports and trade balances are identified, with both historical estimates and forecasts for the periods , and Sectors are classified according to the UN s Standard International Trade Classifications (SITC) and grouped into 30 sector headings. More information about the sector modeling can be found on About the HSBC Trade Confidence Index The HSBC Trade Confidence Index is conducted by TNS on behalf of HSBC in a total of 23 markets, and is the largest trade confidence survey globally. The current survey comprises six-month views of 5,200 exporters, importers and traders from small and mid-market enterprises on: trade volume, buyer and supplier risks, the need for trade finance, access to trade finance and the impact of foreign exchange on their businesses. The fieldwork for the current wave (11) was conducted between May July 2014 and gauges sentiment and expectations on trade activity and business growth in the next six months. About HSBC Commercial Banking HSBC Commercial Banking serves businesses ranging from small enterprises to large multinationals in almost 60 developed and faster-growing markets around the world. Whether it is working capital, trade finance or payments and cash management solutions, we provide the tools and expertise that businesses need to thrive. With a network covering three quarters of global commerce, we make HSBC the world s leading international trade and business bank. For more information please see: Issued by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, which is incorporated in the Hong Kong SAR with limited liability.