Loss&Uncertainty - Main result

Transcription

1 does not warrant, guarantee or make any representations regarding the delivered whatsoever related to the subject matter of this consultancy service, the liability of for Loss&Uncertainty - Main result Main data for PARK PARK calculation : 3. 5 x V (bruttoproduktion) Count 5 Rated power 16,5 MW Mean wind speed 6,7 m/s at hub height Sensitivity 2,0 %AEP / %Mean Wind Speed Expected lifetime 20 Years RESULTS P50 P75 P90 NET AEP [GWh/y] 44,8 41,7 38,8 Capacity factor [%] 31,0 28,8 26,9 Full load hours [h/y] Result details P50 Uncertainty GROSS AEP *) 51,7 GWh/y 10,3 % Bias correction -1,6 GWh/y -3,1 % 1,3 % Loss correction -5,2 GWh/y -10,4 % 1,4 % Wake loss -3,3 % Other losses -7,4 % NET AEP 44,8 GWh/y 10,5 % Scale: Loss: 10,4 % PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE [%] Wake effects 3,3 % 2. Availability 3,0 % 3. Turbine performance 0,0 % 4. Electrical 1,0 % 5. Environmental 0,0 % 6. Curtailment 3,5 % 7. Other 0,0 % Uncertainty: 10,5 % AEP [GWh/y] A. Wind data 8,3 % B. Wind model 5,8 % C. Power conversion 2,0 % D. BIAS 1,3 % E. LOSS 1,4 % *) Calculated Annual Energy Production before any bias or loss corrections Assumptions: Uncertainty and percentiles (PXX values) are calculated for the expected lifetime by, Tel , windpro@emd.dk :04 / 1

2 does not warrant, guarantee or make any representations regarding the delivered whatsoever related to the subject matter of this consultancy service, the liability of for Loss&Uncertainty - Assumptions and results ASSUMPTIONS BIAS Method *) Correction, Correction, Std dev**) Comment wind speed AEP [%] [%] [%] Wind data correction Estimate -2,5-5,0 25,0 Other bias Estimate 1,0 2,0 0,0 Included availability and electrical losses from refe... BIAS, total -3,1 1,3 LOSS Method *) Loss Loss Std dev**) Comment [%] [GWh/y] [%] 1. Wake effects Wake effects, all WTGs Calculation 3,3 1,7 25,0 N. O. Jensen PARK-model 2. Availability Turbine availability Estimate 3,0 1,5 25,0 3. Turbine performance No input 4. Electrical Electrical losses Estimate 1,0 0,5 25,0 5. Environmental No input 6. Curtailment Noise Calculation 2,9 1,4 25,0 Calculated Flicker Calculation 0,7 0,3 25,0 Calculated 7. Other No input LOSS, total 10,4 5,2 1,4 UNCERTAINTY Method *) Std dev, Std dev, Comment wind speed AEP [%] [%] A. Wind data Wind measurement/wind data Estimate 2,5 5,0 Long term correction Estimate 4,0 Year-to-year variability Estimate 4,0 7,9 Future climate Estimate 5,0 Other wind related B. Wind model Vertical extrapolation Estimate 2,5 5,0 Horizontal extrapolation Estimate 1,5 3,0 Other wind model related C. Power conversion Power curve uncertainty Estimate 2,0 Metering uncertainty Other AEP related uncertainties D. BIAS, total uncertainty 1,3 E. LOSS, total uncertainty 1,4 UNCERTAINTY, total (1y average) 13,0 UNCERTAINTY, total (20y average) 10,5 VARIABILITY Years Variability Total (std dev) std dev [%] [%] 1 7,93 13,0 5 3,55 10,9 10 2,51 10,6 20 1,77 10,5 Comment Wind measurement/wind data Long term correction by, Tel , windpro@emd.dk :04 / 2

3 does not warrant, guarantee or make any representations regarding the delivered whatsoever related to the subject matter of this consultancy service, the liability of for Loss&Uncertainty - Assumptions and results Year-to-year variability Future climate Vertical extrapolation Horizontal extrapolation Power curve uncertainty Wind data correction Other bias Included availability and electrical losses from reference turbines Wake effects, all WTGs N. O. Jensen PARK-model Turbine availability Electrical losses Noise Calculated Flicker Calculated RESULTS AEP versus exceedance level / time horizon PXX 1 y 5 y 10 y 20 y [%] [MWh/y] [MWh/y] [MWh/y] [MWh/y] *) Calculation means that a calculation method available in the software is used. This still typically involve a user judgement and user data where the quality of those decides the accuracy. If calculation method is used, the values will often be different from turbine to turbine, here the average is shown, but at page "WTG results" the individual turbine results are shown. **) For totals the std dev refers to the full AEP, otherwise std dev refers to the bias or loss component which is a fraction of the total AEP by, Tel , windpro@emd.dk :04 / 3

4 does not warrant, guarantee or make any representations regarding the delivered whatsoever related to the subject matter of this consultancy service, the liability of for Loss&Uncertainty - WTG results Main data for PARK PARK calculation : 3. 5 x V (bruttoproduktion) Count 5 Rated power 16,5 MW Mean wind speed 6,7 m/s at hub height Sensitivity 2,0 %AEP / %Mean Wind Speed Expected lifetime 20 Years Expected AEP per WTG including bias, loss and uncertainty evaluation Scale: years averaging Description User label Calculated Bias Loss Unc. P50 P75 P90 GROSS*) [MWh/y] [%] [%] [%] [MWh/y] [MWh/y] [MWh/y] 1 VESTAS V MW !O! nav: 91,5 m (TOT:150,0 m) (21) NM ,2-3,1 14,8 10, , , ,2 2 VESTAS V MW !O! nav: 91,5 m (TOT:150,0 m) (22) NM ,6-3,1 15,2 10, , , ,8 3 VESTAS V MW !O! nav: 91,5 m (TOT:150,0 m) (23) NM ,0-3,1 8,5 10, , , ,8 4 VESTAS V MW !O! nav: 91,5 m (TOT:150,0 m) (24) NM ,7-3,1 7,9 10, , , ,8 5 VESTAS V MW !O! nav: 91,5 m (TOT:150,0 m) (25) NM ,2-3,1 5,3 10, , , ,4 PARK ,6-3,1 10,4 10, , , , by, Tel , windpro@emd.dk :04 / 4

5 does not warrant, guarantee or make any representations regarding the delivered whatsoever related to the subject matter of this consultancy service, the liability of for Loss&Uncertainty - Noise Noise reduced mode is achieved by less aggressive pitching or reduction of maximum power. In both cases this results in less power production. There might also be situations where the turbine is fully stopped for fulfilling special noise requirements Assumptions: Time Direction Wind speed WTG(s) From To From To From To Calculated power Curtailed curve power curve [ ] [ ] [m/s] [m/s] VESTAS V MW !O! nav: 91,5 m (TOT:150,0 m) (21) 00:00 23: Power mode 3.45MW Noise Mode 5 VESTAS V MW !O! nav: 91,5 m (TOT:150,0 m) (22) 00:00 23: Power mode 3.45MW Noise Mode 5 Time series used in calculation Name: C:\Users\mads.EMD\Documents\WindPRO Data\Standards\DK_East_10min_80m.wti From: :00:00 To: :50:00 Period: 12 months Time step: 10 minutes The period used is calibrated to calculate annual loss Result Calculated AEP before loss: ,4 MWh/y Calculated loss: 1.444,9 MWh/y Calculated AEP after loss: ,5 MWh/y Percent loss: 2,89 % Month/Year % Total Jan , Feb , Mar , Apr , May , Jun , Jul , Aug , Sep , Oct , Nov , Dec , Total 100, The table shows the number of time steps with curtailment for each day, these days are light grey. The dark greyed fields show days with missing data, the missing time steps are not included in calculation. For some types of calculations not all turbines might be curtailed, the table show a value if just one of the turbines is curtailed. The total percentage might not be equivalent to calculated loss percent due to weighting with concurrent wind data in the loss calculation by, Tel , windpro@emd.dk :04 / 5

6 does not warrant, guarantee or make any representations regarding the delivered whatsoever related to the subject matter of this consultancy service, the liability of for Loss&Uncertainty - Flicker Calculated losses due to shadow (flicker) loss. Used SHADOW calculation: : 3. 5 x V (skyggekast - EXCL udvalgte naboer) Assumptions: Advanced stop (light sensors etc. included). Reduced to: 25 % AEP reduction relative to worst case. WTG Calculated AEP GROSS Loss Percent of AEP [MWh] [MWh] [%] VESTAS V MW !O! nav: 91,5 m (TOT:150,0 m) (21) ,1 107,0 1,05 VESTAS V MW !O! nav: 91,5 m (TOT:150,0 m) (22) ,5 81,5 0,80 VESTAS V MW !O! nav: 91,5 m (TOT:150,0 m) (23) 9.936,1 60,8 0,61 VESTAS V MW !O! nav: 91,5 m (TOT:150,0 m) (24) 9.913,5 59,9 0,60 VESTAS V MW !O! nav: 91,5 m (TOT:150,0 m) (25) 9.818,1 17,5 0,18 TOTAL ,4 326,7 0, by, Tel , windpro@emd.dk :04 / 6