Michael Glantz CCB, University of Colorado Boulder, Colorado, USA 4 April 2012 Kathmandu, Nepal

Transcription

1 Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Development in Mountain Regions Dushanbe, Tajikistan November 9 11, 2011 Brief overview Michael Glantz CCB, University of Colorado Boulder, Colorado, USA 4 April 2012 Kathmandu, Nepal ccrbd

2 The past 50 years has seen a dramatic degradation of the earth s natural capital CO 2, N 2 O, CH 4 concentrations Overfishing Land degradation Water Depletion Unsustainable consumption Rockstrom

3 Climate Change Impacts on the United States, USGCRP, 2000 Societies are now an integral part of the climate system

4 Global warming and people: No place to hide

5 Commoner s 4 Laws of Ecology 1. Everything is connected to everything else. rekkerd.org/img/random/ citarum_pollution.jpg 2. Everything has to go somewhere or there is no such place as away. 3. Everything is always changing. 4. There is no such thing as a free lunch. Citarum River, Indonesia

6 Geo-Engineering the Earth to Meet WHAT? Our Needs or our Wants? While there are many Plans B to cope with climate change

7 Aspects of Climate Climate variability Seasonal to inter-annual Climate fluctuations Decade scale Climate change Deep climate change New global climate state Extreme meteorological events Seasonality

8 Asia s Water Towers

9 Water Towers of the Planet The Third Pole The roof of the world Eurasian snow covers influence on global and regional climates Upstream countries are the Guardians of water upstream Greater Central Asia mountains are a global concern: Can a social invention help?

10 What the public does not know: Eating Water (virtual water)

11 For the Public Adaptation needs a modifier: Resilient Adaptation A process that is a flexible, incremental approach to adjusting to and coping with foreseeable adverse (or beneficial impacts) of an uncertain changing climate.

12 Regional Issues: Changing Hazards Floods & Flash floods Temperature increases Changes in seasonality Droughts Landslides, fires Changes in monsoon regime Increasing rate of melting Increasing number & risk of GLOFs Migration Changes in agricultural & grazing land Vector borne diseases Conflicts

13 Creeping Environmental Changes dominate!! (slow, incremental and cumulative change over time) Air pollution Acid Rain, Global warming Ozone depletion Deforestation Soil erosion Water quality & quantity Glacier retreat Sea level rise Waste disposal Infectious disease spreading Nuclear waste Marine pollution, etc.

14 How to work for sustainability in mountain ecosystems and countries Millennium Ecosystems Assessment: Ecosystems goods & services for human well being

15 It should also be: Human goods & services for ecosystems well being. Societies need Ecosystems more than Ecosystems need societies.

16 Goods provided by mountain regions to people high and low Water (for consumption, irrigation, energy production); Food (crops, domesticated and wild animals); Wood (for energy and construction); Non timber forest products (fibres, goodstuffs, medicinal plants); Minerals **From: Becker, A. and H. Bugmann (eds), Global Change and Mountain Regions: The Mountain Research Initiative. IGBP Report #49, p.17.

17 Services provided by mountain ecosystems include: Maintenance of soil fertility and structure, and associated limitation of soil erosion (particularly of local benefit); Downstream movement of soil nutrients (upstream loss, downstream gain); Avoidance/mitigation of damaging impacts of disastrous events, such as floods, landslides, avalanches (of both local and downstream benefit); Protect landscape as amenity benefit to extra regional tourists but also to those depending on the tourist economy); Biodiversity (of local benefit, but also of extra regional value in terms of existence value and genetic potential); Cycling and storage of carbon and soli nutrients (of global scale). ALSO from A.. Berger and H. Bugmann, 2001.

18 Thinking inside the mountain box Mountain problems: environmental Sensitivity to variable and changing climate Glacier retreat and melting Fragile highlands ecosystems Changes in seasonality GLOFs Accelerated soil erosion Landslides Rapid habitat loss & genetic biodiversity

19 Thinking inside the mountain box Mountain problems: societal Widespread poverty Indigenous knowledge loss Growing demands for water and other natural resources Expanding tourism climate change effects Increase of incidence of natural disasters Greater rates of out-migration Conflicts The pressures of industry mining and agriculture Food insecurity Gender issues Coping with a changing climate Climate change adaptation Land degradation Deforestation, woodcutting Food security needs Indigenous knowledge loss

20 The Mountain Partnerships Purpose Establish clear commitments and benchmarks Develop prioritized plans of action Enhance cooperation among its members on these issues

21 Thinking outside the Mountain box Highlands lowlands Upstream downstream Integrated watershed development Highlands to oceans (H2O) Mountain slope (many ecosystems)

22 Is there value in a Mountain Coalition? WHY a Mountain Coalition: To highlight common interests and commitments for mountains to lowlands issues, To develop prioritized plans of action To enhance cooperation among coalition members on these issues.

23 Linking or Sinking: Co-Branding the connectivity between Highlands and Lowlands

24 A Suggested Next step, H2O: A Highlands to Oceans Initiative Highlight highland to lowland environment and development dependencies in all arenas

25 What about a Mountains & Climate Affairs program? Mountains & Climate Science Mountains & Climate Impacts MOUNTAIN & Mountains & Climate Policy & Law Mountains & Climate Politics Mountains & Climate Economics Mountains & Climate Engineering Mountains & Climate Ethics and Equity

26 Keep in mind for mountains (and other) ecosystems: Precautionary principle Creeping environmental problems Resilient adaptation Foreseeability Branding and Co Branding the Mountains Partnership and Coalition Geo engineering There is No Planet B Social inventions: Concepts change behavior Ecosystem goods and services (for human well being) Human goods and services (for ecosystems well being) Virtual water

27 SCEP 1970 Some History Man s Impact on the Environment Study of Critical Environmental Problems (SCEP) M.I.T. Press Focused on global atmospheric problems Global problems do not necessarily need global solutions. In the foreseeable future advanced industrial societies will probably have to carry the major burden of remedial action.

28 SMIC 1971 More History We recognize a real problem that a global temperature increase produced by man s injection of heat and CO2 may lead to dramatic reduction even elimination of Arctic sea ice. Inadvertent Climate Modification Report of the Study of Man s Impact on Climate (SMIC) Edited by SMIC This exercise would be fruitless if we did not believe that society would be rational when faced with a set of decisions that could govern the future habitability of our planet. M.I.T. Press

29 The youth worldwide are speaking out Photo: Michael H. Cancun, Mexico