Impacts of Future Climate on Water Resources. -How do we determine these? -Some projected changes
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1 Impacts of Future Climate on Water Resources -How do we determine these? -Some projected changes Bano Mehdi Advanced Integrated Water Resources Management course Bridgetown, September 26, 2007
2 Water Resources Impacts Acceleration of the hydrological cycle More intense precipitation and more droughts IPCC, 2007: WG2-AR4
3 Impacts of Climate Extremes: Frequency / Intensity of Events T = 15.3 C Mean T = 16.9 C Mean Factor of 25 Source: Environment Canada
4 Impacts of climate change on freshwater systems are due to the observed and projected increases in Temperature Sea level rise Precipitation variability
5 Example of water availability for agriculture under a changing climate
6
7 Impacts of climate change on agriculture Lower water availability Lower soil moisture Shifts in water demands Changes in ET More variable precipitation Increased ppt. intensities Increased erosion rates User conflicts?
8 Probability P (x) Coping ranges Coping ranges for agriculture are based on: Socio-economic factors Insurance Farm type and management Coping range Drought Flooding X (e.g. moisture, temperature, stream flow, etc.)
9 Looking at the past and future climate PAST TODAY FUTURE Paleoclimatic data Climate models Global (GCM) Regional (RCM) both have limitations one is not more reliable than the other
10 Scales of future climate modeling GCM 400 km resolution RCM km resolution Climate Scenario Sectoral application Hydrological Model Watershed or sub-basin
11 Catching a glimpse of the future Two types of climate models Global Climate Models Regional Climate Models Resolution of 400 x 400 km Resolution of 45 x 45 km
12 Climate scenarios A climate scenario is a plausible representation of the future climate that has been constructed for explicit use in investigating the potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change. (IPCC, 2001) Link between modelers and impacts assessment group Depend on emission scenarios
13 Hydrological models Used by hydrologists to simulate runoff, stream flows, ice jams, spring runoff, etc. When coupled to climate models, you can get an idea of how climate will affect water resources dynamics in the future. Applications: Change in river discharges Water availability for agriculture Hydroelectricity generation
14 Example 1.
15 Example km 50km 10km 1m Point Water availability for irrigation Impact models require... Global Climate Models supply... Source: Canadian Climate Impacts and Scenarios Doria, 2006
16 Precipitation, mm Example 2. Projected Changes in Precipitation (mm) between base ( ) and 2020 ( ) Vineland Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Months base climate ( ) ( ) SDSM-CGCM1 2020s SDSM-HADCM3 A2 2020s SDSM-HADCM3 B2 2020s Doria, 2006
17 Example 2. % days mm per precipitation day Future Precipitation Analysis for Vineland Wet days (frequency) Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII) Apr May June July Aug Sep observed Apr May June July Aug Sep observed 2020 grow ing period Growing Period Days with precipitation decreases The intensity of precipitation increases Doria, 2006
18 Special characterises of small islands Limited physical size Generally limited natural resources Susceptible to natural hazards Relatively thin water lens Openness of small economies General high population densities Poorly developed infrastructure Limited funds and human resource skills IPCC 2001: WG2-AR3
19 Small Island States are especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change, sea level rise and extreme events Deterioration of coastal zones (through e.g. erosion of beaches and coral bleaching) Sea level rise will enhance storm surges, flooding, erosion and other coastal hazards Reduced water resources in future, may not meet demands (esp. during low ppt. periods) IPCC, 2007: WG2-AR4
20 Observed trends for Caribbean Temperature The percentage of dry days having very warm max or min temperature has increased since 1950s, while % of days with cold temperatures has decreased. Precipitation The maximum number of consecutive dry days is decreasing and the number of heavy rainfall events is increasing IPCC, 2007: WG2-AR4
21 Projected changes For the Caribbean, past warming trend shows 0 to 0.5 o C per decade for IPCC, 2007: WG2-AR4
22 Range of future impacts and vulnerabilities for the Caribbean Climate change will exacerbate existing vulnerabilities in sectors IPCC, 2007: WG2-AR4
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