Temperton Fellowship for Poultry Research. Global Feed Resources and Supply

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1 Temperton Fellowship for Poultry Research Global Feed Resources and Supply Nick Major, ForFarmers Corporate Affairs Director, presented a research report entitled Global Feed Resources and Supply at the Farmers Club in London on Monday, 9 June. The aim of the 22nd Temperton Fellowship for Poultry Research Report, was to explore how the projected increase in demand for poultry meat and eggs by 2050 has an effect on the requirement for feed and the commodities that are currently used in producing livestock diets. In the report, Mr Major states that the demand for meat will increase by 197 million tonnes or 76% per cent by 2050 compared with Of this total, demand for poultry meat will increase by 121% and eggs by 64%. Based on current productivity, global poultry feed production by 2050 for poultry meat will have to increase by 72% and feed for the additional demand for eggs would need to increase by 58% compared to current levels. Chicken production today is a global industry with an estimated total poultry population in 2010 of 22 billion animals, 3 times the size in Of the total poultry population, chickens represent 90% (including 6 billion laying hens), ducks 6%, geese 2% and turkeys 2%. Whilst the pig sector represents the largest contributor to global meat production with 37% of the total 296 million tonnes carcass weight in 2010, poultry produced 33% and ruminants 28%. In 2010, total egg production reached 69 million tonnes. Backyard flocks Production systems vary across the world with backyard systems (estimated to contribute 4% of poultry meat output and 14% of total egg production). Such systems of production rely largely on household scraps, other low grade feed materials and foraging for insects and are found worldwide. The production of chicken meat has increased by over 10 times over the last 50 years and specialist broiler systems are now estimated to account for 81% of total poultry meat production. Layer systems account for 86% of total egg production worldwide. Egg production is focused on the East and Southeast Asia Region which accounts for 42% by mass of eggs from specialised layer systems and 35% from backyard production. In 2013, global poultry production is anticipated to total 107 million tonnes, a rise of 1.8% on 2012, as poultry remains competitive with other meats.

2 In 2007, the total livestock population in the EU-27 was 136 million livestock units (LSU), of which cattle represented 47.7 %, followed by pigs (27.6 %), poultry (13.8 %) and sheep (7.6 %). In 2012, France, the UK, Poland, Germany, Spain and Italy each accounted for 10-14% of the total EU 28 production of poultry meat. The EU is 104% self-sufficient in broiler meat (Table 2) and 102% self-sufficient in eggs. Germany and France are the two largest egg producers in the EU. In the UK, there is a relatively high level of self-sufficiency in poultry meat (81% in 2012). Success story Poultry meat in the UK the industry has been one of the most successful food sectors with the sector growning rapidly since the 1950 s when the industry began. In 1953, production stood at 5 million birds a year. By the mid 1980 s production had risen to 600 million and today stands at 1 billion birds. Total UK broiler meat production is just under 1.4 million tonnes Going forward the predictions for demand by 2050 are positive for the poultry meat sector. Of all the livestock products, poultry meat shows the highest percentage growth over the period 2005/2007 to Demand will double from 82 million tonnes to 181 million tonnes, an annual growth rate of 1.8%. Demand for eggs will increase by 1.1 per cent per annum from 62 to 102 million tonnes. Worldwide half of the forecasted global increase in meat consumption is accounted for by poultry meat. In the EU, the demand for poultry meat continues to grow. Production is expected to grow at a rate of 0.8% per year over the period (European Commission, 2013). As a result, production is expected to reach 13.6 million tonnes by 2033 compared to million tonnes in Per capita consumption will increase from kg to kg (expressed as retail weight equivalent. If the UK data for broiler meat is taken from Table 5 and the EU average annual rate of growth for production of 0.8% per annum is taken, there will be a projected increase from 1,609 thousand tonnes in 2012 to 1,742 thousand tonnes in 2023, an increase of 133 thousand tonnes. Total additional feed requirement, at current performance levels, to meet this growth is estimated at 300 million tonnes. Improvements in performance Aviagen have suggested that in 30 years, 35 day FCR may be 1.04:1. In order to achieve a FCR in 30 years time of 1.04, progress would need to be at an annualised rate of The impact of improvements in FCR on feed demand can easily be calculated.

3 A reduction of 0.25:1 in feed conversion ratio by 2022 would result in the additional feed requirement of 71 million tonnes of feed required to meet the projected increase in poultry meat production being reduced by 8.8 million tonnes (including million less tonnes of cereals and million tonnes of soya). If a 0.5:1 improvement in feed conversion ratio could be achieved by 2050, the additional 216 million tonnes of feed required would be reduced by 54 million tonnes. A 0.25:1 reduction in feed conversion ratio by 2020 would mean 667,000 less hectares of cereals and 829,000 hectares of soyabeans would be required to provide the feed for the increase in poultry production required. The FAO projections underlying many of these assumptions make the point that increases in the production of all crops will come mainly from greater yields and cropping intensity rather from additional land made available to crop production. It is estimated that nearly 80% of the growth in crop production will come from some form of intensification (i.e. a combination of higher yields and cropping intensity) and 20% from an expansion in arable land. The increase in soy production has also been very significant especially in South America. Soyabean cultivation amounts to nearly 40% of Brazil s 73 million hectares of agricultural land. At over 37 million hectares in 2012, this has grown from approximately 0.5 million hectares in the 1960 s and 5 million hectares in the 1970 s. Approximately 36 per cent of the word consumption of cereals is used for animal feed. Competition There is pressure on demand for cereals for non-food use and in particular for biofuels in the developed countries. FAO projections suggest that by 2020 some 180 million tonnes of cereals (mostly maize) may be used compared to the current requirement of 135 million tonnes in Coarse grains and sugar cane will remain the dominating feed stocks for ethanol while vegetable oil will continue to dominate biodiesel production. In the US, over 50% of the maize produced is now used for ethanol production. Nearly 60% of all soyabeans which are traded internationally go to China Good news At the global level, even if there were to be no major improvements in feed conversion efficiency, the predicted supplies of both wheat and soyabean meal are more than sufficient to meet the needs of the poultry meat industry. Any improvement in production efficiency will of course have a positive impact. Concern

4 In Europe, concerns are often expressed about the "EU Protein Deficit", a result of the fact that virtually 100% of the soyabean meal required is imported from 3 countries, the US, Brazil and Argentina. If supplies were disrupted for any reason, this could have a significant impact on domestic European poultry meat and egg production. There are a number of potential new and novel feed materials which may be available in the future which could reduce the current level of reliance on imported soyabean meal. PAP The Foodchain and Biomass Renewables Association (FABRA) has estimated that there is some 635,000 metric tonnes of non ruminant land animal proteins available in the EU, of which 106,000 tonnes is available in the UK. Within these totals, porcine PAP which could be used in poultry feed, amounts to 205,000 tonnes (of which 5,000 tonnes is in the UK). The report states that the degree to which non ruminant PAP may play a role in poultry diets in the future will depend on a number of factors: y of feed manufacturers to achieve zero tolerance cross contamination Other sources of protein include By-Products of Bioethanol Production, Rapeseed meal is a useful source of protein and can be used in poultry diets and former foodstuffs. In the EU, 90 million tonnes of food is wasted each year. Former foodstuffs such as biscuits, bread, dough, crisps and sweets etc. have a high nutritional value for feeding animals. In the EU, 3 million tonnes per annum of former foodstuffs are processed into animal feed. Insects Of all of the potential new and novel raw materials available in the future, insect protein has created the most interest. A number of species have been identified as having the potential to be used in animal feed production, including black soldier flies, common house fly larvae, silkworms and yellow meal worms. Soldier fly larvae have been used in a number of feeding trials for poultry, pigs and fish. Mature larvae are reared on animal manures and then harvested, freeze dried and processed into animal feed. Digestion and palatability trials have found that the larvae reared on cattle manures contained 42 per cent crude protein, 35% oil and 5% calcium. Research will need to focus on whether insect protein can be produced on an industrial scale, the safety of the process given that the substrates used are usually either manures of low grade food waste and, to some extent, consumer acceptance and communication of the benefits of the material as a sustainable source of protein. In addition to the list of raw materials discussed above, there is also interest in single cell proteins (SCP s) such as microbial derived protein, yeasts and algae. Feed Compounding Capacity

5 Of the 444 million tonnes of poultry feed produced globally, 144 million is layers feed, 272 million is broiler, 15 million is turkey and 13.8 million is classified as other. The additional feed required by 2050 was 216 million tonnes of feed for poultry meat and 84 million tonnes for egg production. This compares with current production of 301 million tonnes and 144 million tonnes respectively. This represents a 72 per cent increase in feed production for poultry meat and 58 per cent increase in feed for egg production. The impact of anticipated on-going feed efficiency in poultry meat production would be to reduce the 216 million tonne increase by 54 million tonnes to 162 million tonnes. If this were to be achieved, this would represent a required 54 per cent increase in feed production by The feed industry in most areas where large scale poultry meat and egg production is sophisticated and over this long term period such increases should be achievable. Speaking of the Fellowship, Nick Major added: Because of the efficiency of the whole poultry supply chain the sector is particularly well placed to take advantage of the opportunities that will exist over the coming years. The 23rd Temperton Fellowship will be awarded to Head of Agriculture for Morrisons, David Evans. The Temperton Fellowship was established to commemorate the contribution of Dr Harold Temperton, Director of the National Institute of Poultry Husbandry at Harper Adams University from