Predicting Climate Change Impacts on Invasive Species in Pennsylvania. Sara Grise` Pennsylvania Sea Grant
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1 Predicting Climate Change Impacts on Invasive Species in Pennsylvania Sara Grise` Pennsylvania Sea Grant
2 Background on Climate Change There has always been a natural cycle of warming and cooling
3 Background on Climate Change Since the start of the industrial revolution in the 1800s, the climate has begun to warm at a more rapid and unpredictable rate
4 Background on Climate Change More than 50% of the increase in globally averaged temperatures is likely due to human sources Carbon dioxide Methane Nitrous oxide Can persist for tens of hundreds of years
5 Climate Change Scenarios Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) Climate Change Scenarios: High (A1) Medium (A1B) Low (B1)
6 High (A1) Assumptions Business as usual scenario Rapid economic growth Fossil fuel intensive technologies
7 Medium (A1B1) Assumptions Rapid economic growth New more efficient technologies Balance between fossil and non-fossil fuel technologies
8 Low (B1) Assumptions Rapid change in economic structures towards a service and information economy Reduction in material intensity Emphasis is on global solutions to sustainability Energy sources are focused on efficiency and dematerialization
9 Climate Change Impacts on Pennsylvania Average daily temperatures are expected to increase 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit between 2010 and 2039 Precipitation is expected to increase by more than 5% seasonally (less in the summer, more in the winter) Decreased number of snow covered days Increased severe storm events and flooding
10 Aquatic Invasive Species (AIS) Impacts Environmental Impacts Decline in native species Food web disturbances Degraded habitats Economic impacts Recreational impacts Aesthetic impacts Infrastructure impacts
11 Combining these stressors may create one of the greatest threats of our time!!!
12 Climate Change Impacts on AIS Not yet well understood Several possibilities Increase success Decrease success Exacerbate impacts Climate change and other stressors will impact AIS: Distribution Spread Abundance Impacts How do we prepare and adapt?
13 Climate Change Impacts on AIS Altered conditions could increase or decrease AIS success: Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) Modified precipitation regimes Increased temperatures Interactions with anthropogenic stressors Erratic weather patterns
14 Increased CO 2 Atmospheric CO 2 levels have risen from a steady 280 ppm to the present 370 ppm Will affect various plant species : Growth rates Resource allocation patterns Water use efficiency Nutrient uptake rates Studies found that increased CO 2 increased the growth rate of Hydrilla at elevated temperatures
15 Modified Precipitation Regimes & Erratic weather patterns Increased rainfall and storm events may allow for greater dispersal of upstream invasive species to downstream habitats Flooding can allow AIS to escape from contained areas (e.g. Asian carp) Changes in species dynamics with areas becoming wetter or drier
16 Interactions with Human Stressors Globalization of commerce Shipping Bait Aquarium and pond trade Aquaculture Waterway engineering (canals and dams) Land use changes Eutrophication Water withdrawal
17 Interactions with Human Stressors Habitat degradation Clear cutting Farming practices Industrialized pollution Urbanization Overfishing All linked to AIS invasion!
18 Increasing Temperatures May cause cold water invasive species impacts to diminish Example: Viral Hemorrhagic Septicemia
19 Increasing Temperatures May create additional opportunities for invasion Allow warm weather species to expand their ranges northward Facilitate the movement of native species into new areas where they can become invasive Affect stream flow and water quality
20 A Framework for Evaluating Risk of AIS Range Expansions in a Changing Climate in Pennsylvania Addresses new challenges for invasive species management Direction and rate of spread are important factors in determining adaptive management options Current Pennsylvania AIS management tools do not anticipate for future changes climate
21 Questions How vulnerable are Pennsylvania s ecosystems to species movement and introduction under various climate scenarios? Can we accurately predict the range expansions of AIS by projecting species temperature constraints onto climate projection models?
22 Methods Random taxon-stratified sample of species was taken from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) AIS database Fish Plants Invertebrates To determine: If sufficient information is available on temperature and moisture requirements If the species is likely excluded from Pennsylvania due to climate as opposed to other factors such as vectors of introduction, propagule pressure, etc. Whether various shifts in temperature or precipitation would be enough to bring Pennsylvania into their range
23 Methods- Requirements for species Not currently present in Pennsylvania, or present in very limited areas Not currently present in any areas north of Pennsylvania No hybrids No intentionally stocked species (salmonids) Looking for species south of Pennsylvania (Maryland-Georgia and the Lower Mississippi drainage) that have the potential to move northward with warming
24 Species 34% of fish species in the USGS database fit these criteria 60% had enough information available on temperature tolerances 27% of plant species fit the criteria 60% had enough information available 33% of invertebrate species fit the criteria 50% had enough information available Ending up with between 10 and 15 of each species to choose from
25 Climate Projection models Downscaled models Three emission scenarios 3-5 species for case studies
26 Case studies Climate Matching: CLIMEX Assess overall invasion risk Prioritize destination-specific management actions Determines suitability Based on parameters such as temperature, moisture, light, etc. Dot size coincides with the Ecoclimatic Index (EI), largest =100
27 Outputs Pennsylvania AIS Management Plan: Incorporate component on climate change and risk assessment Species specific Pennsylvania maps One for each emission scenario Indices for prioritization of species of most concern Anticipate proactively the areas of greatest risk of invasion
28 Conclusions This research will provide the ability to describe and map the potential future distribution of a species as determined by climate factors Will enable resource managers at the state and local levels to make rational decisions about invasive species management and control Provide a framework for predicting the future ranges of additional species not used in this analysis
29 Questions? Sara Grise` Pennsylvania Sea Grant
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