Mobile Broadband Market Dynamics. BV Raman CDMA Development Group

Transcription

1 Mobile Broadband Market Dynamics BV Raman CDMA Development Group October 3, 007

2 Key Lessons Learned Migration from 1G to G to 3G It took G technologies the better part of a decade to find widespread adoption. * Over optimism and growing pains are often intrinsic to the process that informs the introduction of any new technology. * The migration to newer technologies takes longer, and is never as simple as it may seem. *Source: Past as a Guidepost to the Future: Reflections on the Continued Growth of the Mobile Communications Industry, IDC, September 007

3 Key Lessons Learned Evolutionary Change Mobile network operators, like others engaged in network-based enterprises, prefer a graceful evolutionary change to a disruptive revolutionary change. * Graceful evolutionary change is preferred over disruptive revolutionary change. *Source: Past as a Guidepost to the Future: Reflections on the Continued Growth of the Mobile Communications Industry, IDC, September 007

4 Key Lessons Learned Compatibility and Interoperability The coordination endeavor requires an appropriate inclusive arena usually a standard-setting body in which industry players can meet to discuss and resolve their concerns and build consensus in a productive and expeditious manner. * The process of ensuring compatibility and interoperability across multiple industries requires efficient standard- setting bodies, network maturity and business predictability. *Source: Past as a Guidepost to the Future: Reflections on the Continued Growth of the Mobile Communications Industry, IDC, September 007

5 India s s Targets set by DOT Telecom Subs Internet Subs Broadband Subs (In Millions) (In Millions) (In Millions) While we are well on the way to achieve our Telecom Subscriber Targets, we are way off the mark on Internet & Broadband Subscribers.

6 India Internet & Broadband Subscribers Millions Dec'05 Mar'06 Jun'06 Sep'06 Dec'06 Mar'07 Broadband Subs Internet Subs Targets Broadband 3 Mln. 9 Mln. Internet 6 Mln. 18 Mln.

7 Limitations to Internet & Broadband Penetration in India Limited Amount of Copper Deployed by Fixed Line Operators Including the incumbents, BSNL & MTNL. According to TRAI the Maximum number of Subs that can be accomodated is 9 Million. So What is the Solution? The Solution is to DEPLOY High Speed networks on diverse competing platforms. Need a Cogent Technology Agnostic Spectrum Management Policy Grow the emerging Advance Wireless Systems.

8 CDMA000: Evolution of Services

9 Wireless Broadband Evolution CDMA000 is leading the evolution to next generation mobile broadband services Network Evolution All-IP Network For Fixed-Mobile Convergence (VoIP & data) Co-existence of Different Access Networks for Various Needs Coverage, Mobility, Capacity,QoS, Data Rates Mobile Device Evolution Convergence of Communication, Computing & CE Platforms Multi-mode Devices Connect to Various Access Networks Service Requirements, Availability, Cost Service Evolution User Behaviors Trend from Wired to Wireless Same Rich IP Apps and Services in all Environments Ubiquitous & Consistent Experience Desired

10 CDMA000 Service Evolution Same Rich IP Apps and Services in all environments User Trend: Shift from Wired to Wireless Ever increasing demand for more and higher quality video Users sharing content within a traditional fixed environment (wireless through the home) Place-shifting of content now accessible at all times and places with wireless Individuals becoming content creators Handsets now becoming media generation and storage devices Wireless connection to social networks allows users to express themselves anytime, anywhere User Generated Content on Social Networks

11 EV-DO Rev. A: Leading wireless broadband The first All-IP, low-latency, latency, broadband multimedia, multicasting and mobile VoIP network to be commercially deployed, with speeds over 3 Mbps Telcel (Venzuela) Movilnet (Venzuela) Bermuda Digital Communications (BDC) Telesystems or Ukraine MTS First Wireless (Nigeria) Arobase Telecom (Cote d Ivoire) Mobilkom (Czech Rep) EOCG (Caribbean) Skytel (Mongolia) Telefonica O (Czech Rep) Dozens of Rev A networks will be deployed in 007 Logo Not Shown: Broadband Everywhere (Philippines)

12 CDMA000 All-IP Deployment Scenarios A Packet-based network for unified voice, broadband data, and multimedia services PSTN Media Gateway Centralized or Distributed network configuration Local Exchange is not required Cost-effective service even in very remote areas Efficient usage of bandwidth Can operate cost effectively over satellite links Ring Centralized Server Media Gateway PSTN Local PSTN Media Gateway Media Gateway PSTN Distributed Server Star Chain PSTN Media Gateway Media Gateway PSTN Although Although backhaul backhaul of of remote remote RF RF network network elements elements will will remain remain a a significant significant cost, cost, with with fewer fewer sites, sites, an an all-ip all-ip CDMA000 CDMA000 solution solution can can significantly significantly reduce reduce the the overall overall system system cost. cost.

13 CDMA000 Device Selection

14 CDMA000: The Largest Selection of 3G Devices Over 1700 CDMA000 devices have been introduced to the market Entry-level Voice-centric Handsets Personal Messaging Mobile Phones Fixed Wireless Phones PDAs EV-DO Fixed Wireless Terminals Interactive Multimedia CE Devices EV-DO PC Cards EV-DO USB modems WorldMode TM Global Roaming Phones Television Phones Watch TV on a large screen from your mobile phone using TV Out cables EV-DO PCexpress Embedded Modules for PC Notebooks including 469 CDMA000 1xEV-DO devices from 9 Manufacturers

15 CDMA Fixed Wireless Devices Across 450, 800 and 1900 MHz bands Aiji Systems AP-10 Aiji Systems F0 AnyData AXW-P1900PCO Axesstel P830 DowTel WS-6110 LG LST-3000 * CDMA450 Axesstel AXW-T450/ 800/1900 Axesstel PX110/10/130 Hantel HTP-1901 Huawei CP800 1X AnyData AWL-00C AnyData AXW-P1900 Aiji Systems AnyData Audiovox Axesstel EVEV-DO Rev. A EVEV-DO Rev. A DowTel WS-100 LG LST-50 Huawei ETS000 AnyData AWR-E100C DowTel WS-8000 LG LST-500 Huawei SYF 005 EVEV-DO Rev. A Sierra Wireless Digi MP 595 GPS Connect Port WAN Axesstel Ruggedized In-Vehicle LinkSys MV410*/40/430/440 Modem Wireless G 3G Broadband Gateway Wi-Fi Router EVEV-DO Rev. A Samsung design Hantel Telular Phonecell XP4P Huawei Hyundai Curitel Axesstel L-450/800/1900 EVEV-DO Rev. A Telular Phonecell SX4T Telular Phonecell SX5P Kyocera KR1 Router Westech DowTel Kison Kyocera LG Motorola NEC RWT Synertek Standard Telecom Sewon (Maxom) Maxom) Telular Phonecell SX4e Huawei ETS051 LG LSP-3000 Huawei ETS1000/100/1500 Huawei ETS077 RWT FCT-CDMA Telular SX6P-00C Huawei ETS00/88/500 Westech DTT-810/1910 Cypress Solutions CTM-140 LG LSP-340E Westech DTP-810/1910 Telular ZTE Note: Above devices are representative samples. This is not an all inclusive list Novatel Wireless Ovation MCD3000 ZTE WP50B/560/90B ZTE WF50F ZTE WP960

16 CDMA000 1xEV-DO Rev A Devices 6 Rev A devices as of May offer increased data speeds in both directions Novatel Wireless Expedite E70 PCI Express Mini Card Toshiba W47T Toshiba DRAPE UTStarcom 5800 (HTC Libra) Sierra Wireless MC575(V) PCI Express Mini Card Huawei EC 360 Novatel Wireless Merlin S70 Pantech PX-500 Sierra Wireless AirCard 597E Sierra Wireless AirCard 595 Axesstel MV110*/140 USB Modem Sierra Wireless AirCard 595U USB Modem Novatel Wireless Ovation MCD3000 * CDMA450 Kyocera KR1 Mobile Router Digi Connect Port WAN Axesstel MV410*/40/430/440 3G Broadband Gateway Sierra Wireless MP 595 GPS Ruggedized In-Vehicle Modem LinkSys Wireless G Wi-Fi Router

17 CDMA000 WorldMode TM Devices Global roaming enabled with CDMA000/GSM/GPRS multi-mode/multi mode/multi-band devices Samsung SCH-A790/W109/A795/IP-A790 Motorola A840/A860 LGE W800 Samsung SCH-i819 LGE W810 Samsung SCH-W19 Samsung SCH-W379 Samsung SCH-W399 Samsung SCH-W531 Samsung SCH-W569 Samsung SCH-W579 Samsung SCH-V90 CDMA000 1X/EV-DO/GSM/GPRS WorldMode Devices Yulong Telecom Coolpad 78 Yulong Telecom Coolpad 78B Yulong Telecom Coolpad 858T Yulong Telecom Coolpad C88 ZTE H500 Samsung SCH-i830 (EV-DO) LGE KW-900 (EV-DO) Amoi CMA8301 (EV-DO) Amoi V810 (EV-DO) UTStarcom T66 CECT C88 Daxian C8000 Hisense D806

18 CDMA000: Strong Evolution Path

19 CDMA: Time-to to-market Leadership in 3G and beyond CDMA000 Evolution Path CDMA000 1X CDMA CDMA000 1xEV-DO CDMA/TDM OFDM EV-DO Rev A 1 MIMO OFDM/OFDMA/MIMO/SDMA VoIP EV-DO Rev B 1 DL: 153 kbps UL: 153 kbps (1.5 MHz) DL:.4 Mbps UL: 153 kbps (1.5 MHz) DL: 3.1 Mbps UL: 1.8 Mbps (1.5 MHz) DL: Mbps UL: Mbps (.5 0 MHz) UMB 3 WCDMA Evolution Path Rel-99 WCDMA DL: 384 kbps UL: 384 kbps (5 MHz) Rel-5 HSDPA DL: Mbps UL: 384 kbps (5 MHz) Rel-6 HSUPA DL: Mbps UL: 5.7 Mbps (5 MHz) Requirement: DL: Mbps 4 UL: Mbps (10 0 MHz) Rel-7 HSPA+ Phase 1 5 VoIP Rel-8 HSPA+ Phase 5 Target: DL: 14-4 Mbps UL: 11 Mbps (5 MHz) VoIP LTE 6 Note: timeline depicts initial commercial availability of each technology. Those introduced beyond 008 are under standardization and are subject to variability 1 EV-DO Rev A and Rev B incorporate OFDM for multicasting. Data rates are based on 64 QAM and a x0 MHz FDD band allocation and are scalable with the number of carriers assigned. Up to 15 carriers, up to 4.9 Mbps per carrier. 3 Multiple modes supported: CDMA, TDM, OFDM, OFDMA, LS-OFDM. New antenna techniques used: 4x4 MIMO and SDMA. Leverages EV-DO protocol stack. 4 Data rates are based on x0 MHz FDD band allocation and 4x4 MIMO. Data rate depends on the level of mobility. 5 Upper range of DL peak data rates for Release 7 and Release 8 introduce enhancements is based on 64 QAM, x MIMO. 6 Initial requirements are based on OFDMA in the DL and SC-FDMA in the UL, FDD, 64 QAM, TX MIMO in DL, and 16 QAM single TX stream in UL. Requirement: DL: 150 Mbps UL: 50 Mbps (0 MHz)

20 EV-DO Rev A: Enhanced Mobile Broadband Higher spectral efficiency, faster data rates, greater symmetry, and lower latency Higher broadband data rates 3.1 Mbps peak data rate on forward link 1.8 Mbps peak data rate on reverse link Greater symmetry Designed for symmetric traffic Improves user experience for UL intensive applications (sending , pictures, etc.) Higher spectral efficiency Increased rate quantization on both forward and reverse link enables more efficient use of air link resources 1. times Rel 0 forward link sector capacity 3.4 times Rel 0 reverse link sector capacity Reduced latency Support for delay sensitive applications such as VoIP, push-to-talk, video telephony, instant multi-media (IMM), video conferencing, and low-latency network gaming Optimized Quality of Serivce (QoS) User-based (based on subscription), application-based, and flow-based prioritization DO Platinum Multicast Economical delivery of rich content to the mass market. 1.5 Mbps capacity with > 98% coverage Backward compatibility Continued support for existing 1X and Rel 0 devices

21 EV-DO Rev B: Multi-carrier Broadband Higher performance with greater spectrum flexibility Aggregates multiple EV-DO channels for higher performance Software upgrade to existing Rev A channel cards Allows deployment in hot-zones with high data demand Higher broadband data rates Peak data rates are proportional to the number of carriers aggregated - RFs = 6. Mbps, 3 RFs = 9.3 Mbps Initial carrier bandwidth is.5 MHz (standard supports up 0 MHz) Increased (wider) bandwidth To support more users per sector or lower cost per megabyte To encourage longer usage Network flexibility Allocation of bandwidth for new devices depends on application and network availability Higher capacity Improved spectral efficiency on both FL and RL due to multi-carrier transmissions Better user experience throughout the cell coverage area Backward compatibility Co-existence of 1X, Rev A and B devices in the same network 1xEV-DO Rev A channel cards can be utilized

22 Ultra Mobile Broadband (UMB) A technological breakthrough in next generation broadband services es Combines the best aspects of CDMA, TDM, LS-OFDM OFDM, OFDM,, and OFDMA into a single air interface using sophisticated control and signaling mechanisms and advanced antenna techniques: Multiple Input Multiple Output (MIMO) and Space Division Multiple Access (SDMA) Will deliver ultra-high mobile broadband performance*: Forward link: up to 91 Mbps Reverse link: up to 79 Mbps Average network latency: 16.8 msec Voice over IP (VoIP): up to 500 simultaneous users Will enable the convergence of IP-based voice, broadband data, multimedia, information technology, entertainment and consumer electronic services Commercial availability is expected in early 009 *Based on x0 MHz FDD band allocation and 4x4 MIMO. Latency is based on a 3-byte Return Trip Transmission (RTT). VoIP capacity is dependent upon the feature set enabled and network load.

23 CDMA000 Performance

24 Site Count Comparison By Technology CDMA000 requires the least number of cell sites for rural markets 133 Assumptions: 1. Coverage area = 1,000 sq. km.. Subscriber density = 31 Subs/sq. km 3. Available spectrum = 5 MHz 4. Average voice traffic per sub = 00 MoU/month 5. Average data traffic per sub = 5 Mb/month 6. Wireless penetration = 50%, Carrier market share = 5% 7. Voice usage = 100%, Voice BH = 10% 8. Data usage = 100%, Data BH = 1% 9. Simultaneous Calls/Sector/Carrier: EV-DO = 44, 1X = 35, GSM/EDGE = 6, WCDMA/HSDPA = 60, WiMAX = Physical Layer FL data throughput (kbps): EV-DO = 180, 1X = 350, GSM/EDGE = 86, WCDMA/HSDPA = 3600, WiMAX = EV-DO Rev. A 450 MHz EV-DO Rev. A 800 MHz CDMA 800 MHz (Capacity Limited) MHz MHz MHz Source: QUALCOMM, March 007

25 CDMA000 Enables Lowers Tariffs CDMA000 1X and EV-DO enables the lowest cost per bit and Erlang Network Expense/User/Month Combined Voice and Data Network Expense USD $5.00 $.50 $0.00 $17.50 $15.00 $1.50 $10.00 $7.50 $5.00 $.50 GSM/GPRS EDGE WCDMA 1X 1X / EV-DO Rel. 0 (500 Minutes of Use) $ Megabytes per User The Lower the better! Operators Operators prefer prefer network network technologies technologies that that are are affordable affordable and and evolutionary evolutionary Source: The Economics of Wireless Data, Assumptions: On demand Traffic: a) 15% of traffic demand occurs at the busy hour, b) 7,600 kbps / sq km at busy hour, c) 5MHz Multicast Traffic: a),000 subscribers / cell, b) 30 live streaming minutes / day at 18kbps data rate, c) 1.5MHz

26 Worldwide Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) CDMA000 will sustain the highest average revenue per user on a global basis ARPU (USD) $45 $40 $35 $30 $5 $0 $15 $10 $5 $0 Data Usage drives higher CDMA ARPU for Leading Wireless Technologies GSM/GPRS/EDGE CDMA000 Source: Strategy Analytics, September 006

27 Korea: CDMA000 1xEV-DO Outpaces WiBRO When given a choice, Korean end-users chose 1xEV-DO over WiBRO Q3 and Q4 006 subscriber net addition totals: 1,057 WiBRO subscribers since WiBRO s commercial launch in 006 (KT and SKT) South Korean Wireless Broadband Subscriber Growth (Q3 & Q4 006) 1.8 million EV-DO subscribers (KTF and SKT) Total WiBRO roll-out costs: W60 billion,000,000 - SKT spent ~W170 billion - KT spent ~W450 billion 1,500,000 - Only available in select zones of the Seoul metro area Total EV-DO roll-out costs: W300 billion 1,000,000 - SKT spent ~W00 billion (6 cities) - KTF spent ~W100 billion (6 cities - ~80% POPs coverage) 500,000 - EV-DO had close to nationwide coverage when launched 0 WiBRO EV-DO EV-DO cost less to roll-out over a larger area Source: Wireless Intelligence (1xEV-DO subscribers), media sources (WiBro subscribers, WiBro & EV-DO roll-out expenditures)

28 Conclusion CDMA000 offers affordable telephony, Internet and multimedia access to large coverage areas that have a low population density Rural Services: CDMA000 addresses India s national objectives by increasing telephony, Internet penetration, enterprise productivity, and improving vital services such as: - Telemedicine, remote learning, public safety, asset management, emergency and disaster relief, national security, telemetry, transportation and utility services, agriculture, tourism, etc. Coverage: CDMA000 enables the largest coverage area using the lower 450 and 800 MHz frequency bands and extended base station coverage solutions. Network Costs: The spectral efficiency of CDMA000 and its All-IP architecture reduces the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) of a network, improves performance and enables faster deployments. Entry-level Devices: A large selection of entry-level CDMA000 handsets are currently available. Entry level CDMA devices now well below US$30.

29 Conclusion (Cont.) CDMA000 has been widely deployed in emerging and rural markets worldwide Universal service: CDMA000 is bridging the digital divide by providing affordable telephony and Internet access to some of the most remote places on earth. Flexibility and Scalability: CDMA000 has enabled operators to address both sparsely populated rural areas and densely populated urban areas, equally well. Regulatory Environment: India needs a Technology Agnostic Spectrum Management Policy to enable continued economic development.

30 Thank You