21 DAYS TO THE ELECTION, KERRY NOW UP 23 PTS IN NEW YORK STATE

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1 21 DAYS TO THE ELECTION, KERRY NOW UP 23 PTS IN NEW YORK STATE IN 2000, GORE CARRIED NY STATE BY KERRY NOW LEADS BY ELECTORAL VOTES SAFELY BLUE IN AN ELECTION FOR PRESIDENT IN NY STATE TODAY, JOHN KERRY DEFEATS GEORGE W BUSH, 58% TO 35%, ACCORDING TO SURVEYUSA POLL OF 606 LIKELY VOTERS CONDUCTED 10/9-10/11. COMPARED TO IDENTICAL SURVEY 3 WKS AGO, KERRY IS UP 3, BUSH IS DOWN 4. KERRY HAD LED BY 16, NOW LEADS BY 23. ALMOST ALL OF THE 7-PT GAIN IS FROM WOMEN SWITCHING TO KERRY. ON 9/21, KERRY LED BY 16 AMOMG WOMEN, NOW 28, A 12-PT SWING TO THE DEMOCRAT. ON 9/21, KERRY LED BY 16 AMONG MEN, STILL LEADS BY 16 AMONG MEN TODAY. INDEPENDENTS BREAK 2:1 FOR KERRY. MODERATES BREAK 5:2 FOR KERRY. KERRY LEADS BY 43 PTS IN NYC, LEADS BY 14 PTS IN NYC SUBURBS, LEADS BY 8 PTS UPSTATE. RESEARCH CONDUCTED E.T :02-20: :04-19: :32-20:48 ET RESPONDENTS DRAWN FROM THE ENTIRE STATE OF NEW YORK RANDOM SAMPLE SELECTED BY SURVEY SAMPLING INC. RESEARCH CONDUCTED FOR WABC-TV NEW YORK CITY, WRGB-TV ALBANY, & WGRZ-TV BUFFALO 2004 SURVEYUSA, PROUD TO BE AMERICA'S POLLSTER PAGE 1 OF 12

2 VOTE FOR PRESIDENT / ALL LIKELY VOTERS AMERICANS WILL ELECT A PRESIDENT ON NOVEMBER 2ND. IF THE ELECTION FOR PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES WERE TODAY, AND YOU WERE STANDING IN THE VOTING BOOTH RIGHT NOW, WHO WOULD YOU VOTE FOR? REPUBLICAN GEORGE W. BUSH? DEMOCRAT JOHN KERRY? OR SOME OTHER CANDIDATE? BUSH (R) 35% KERRY (D) 58% OTHER 3% ALL INTERVIEWS FOR THIS POLL WERE CONDUCTED AFTER 2ND PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE ON 10/8. UNDECIDED 3% THIS IS A SURVEY OF 606 LIKELY VOTERS FROM THE ENTIRE STATE OF NEW YORK RESULTS CONSIDERED SIGNIFICANT ±4.1% A LARGER ± APPLIES TO SUBPOPULATIONS RESULTS MAY NOT ADD TO 100%, BECAUSE PERCENTAGES ARE ROUNDED TO WHOLE NUMBERS PAGE 2 OF 12

3 VOTE FOR PRESIDENT / ALL LIKELY VOTERS 60% 58% 55% 55% 50% 45% 40% 39% 35% 35% 9/21 10/12 BUSH (R) KERRY (D) PAGE 3 OF 12

4 VOTE FOR PRESIDENT / RESPONSES COMPARED BY PERCENTAGES AND BY INDEX CERTAIN PROBABLE MALE FEMALE AGE AGE AGE AGE 65+ WHITE BLACK HISPANIC ASIAN/OTHER RESPONSES SORTED BY DEMOGRAPHIC CATEGORY BUSH (R) 35% 35% 35% 39% 33% 33% 37% 37% 33% 44% 7% 27% 17% KERRY (D) 58% 59% 55% 55% 61% 60% 56% 57% 61% 50% 85% 69% 75% OTHER 3% 3% 6% 4% 2% 4% 2% 4% 3% 3% 5% 3% 3% UNDECIDED 3% 3% 5% 2% 4% 2% 5% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 5% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% DEMOGRAPHIC SUBPOPULATIONS INDEXED TO RESPONSES BUSH (R) KERRY (D) OTHER UNDECIDED CERTAIN PROBABLE MALE FEMALE AGE AGE AGE AGE 65+ WHITE BLACK HISPANIC ASIAN/OTHER PAGE 4 OF 12

5 VOTE FOR PRESIDENT / RESPONSES COMPARED BY PERCENTAGES AND BY INDEX REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT/OTHER GRAD SCHOOL COLLEGE GRAD SOME COLLEGE NO COLLEGE CONSERVATIVE MODERATE LIBERAL RESPONSES SORTED BY DEMOGRAPHIC CATEGORY BUSH (R) 35% 80% 12% 31% 27% 39% 38% 37% 67% 27% 12% KERRY (D) 58% 16% 83% 60% 67% 54% 57% 56% 30% 65% 82% OTHER 3% 3% 2% 6% 4% 2% 3% 3% 1% 4% 4% UNDECIDED 3% 2% 3% 3% 2% 4% 2% 4% 2% 4% 2% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% DEMOGRAPHIC SUBPOPULATIONS INDEXED TO RESPONSES BUSH (R) KERRY (D) OTHER UNDECIDED REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT/OTHER GRAD SCHOOL COLLEGE GRAD SOME COLLEGE NO COLLEGE CONSERVATIVE MODERATE LIBERAL PAGE 5 OF 12

6 VOTE FOR PRESIDENT / RESPONSES COMPARED BY PERCENTAGES AND BY INDEX NO RELIGIOUS SERVICES OCCASIONAL RELIGIOUS SERVICES REGULAR RELIGIOUS SERVICES PRO-LIFE PRO-CHOICE MILITARY/VET NON-MILITARY/VET UNION NON-UNION RESPONSES SORTED BY DEMOGRAPHIC CATEGORY BUSH (R) 35% 27% 32% 45% 60% 23% 39% 32% 34% 36% KERRY (D) 58% 68% 60% 49% 37% 71% 54% 62% 60% 58% OTHER 3% 3% 4% 2% 1% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% UNDECIDED 3% 2% 4% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% DEMOGRAPHIC SUBPOPULATIONS INDEXED TO RESPONSES BUSH (R) KERRY (D) OTHER UNDECIDED NO RELIGIOUS SERVICES OCCASIONAL RELIGIOUS SERVICES REGULAR RELIGIOUS SERVICES PRO-LIFE PRO-CHOICE MILITARY/VET NON-MILITARY/VET UNION NON-UNION PAGE 6 OF 12

7 VOTE FOR PRESIDENT / RESPONSES COMPARED BY PERCENTAGES AND BY INDEX < $40K/YR $40K - $80K/YR > $80K/YR NEW YORK CITY NYC SUBURBS UPSTATE NY URBAN SUBURBAN RURAL BUSH (R) KERRY (D) RESPONSES SORTED BY DEMOGRAPHIC CATEGORY BUSH (R) 35% 30% 39% 39% 26% 40% 42% 25% 44% 45% KERRY (D) 58% 64% 55% 56% 69% 54% 50% 69% 50% 45% OTHER 3% 4% 3% 3% 2% 3% 4% 2% 3% 6% UNDECIDED 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% VOTED 'FOR' CANDIDATE 81% 50% 'AGAINST' OTHER CAND. 16% 45% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% DEMOGRAPHIC SUBPOPULATIONS INDEXED TO RESPONSES BUSH (R) KERRY (D) OTHER UNDECIDED < $40K/YR $40K - $80K/YR > $80K/YR NEW YORK CITY NYC SUBURBS UPSTATE NY URBAN SUBURBAN RURAL PAGE 7 OF 12

8 RAW COUNTS FOR ALL RESPONSE CHOICES THE RESPONSES OF A SUBPOPULATION OF 100 WOULD TYPICALLY BE CONSIDERED ACCURATE ± 10%. PLEASE EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION IN DRAWING CONCLUSIONS FROM SUBPOPULATIONS SMALLER THAN 100 CERTAIN PROBABLE MALE FEMALE AGE AGE AGE AGE 65+ WHITE BLACK HISPANIC ASIAN/OTHER REGISTERED CERTAIN PROBABLE LIKELY BUSH (R) KERRY (D) OTHER UNDECIDED TOTAL COMPOSITION OF ADULTS 100% 69% 6% 47% 53% 32% 31% 20% 17% 64% 14% 14% 8% COMP. OF REG. VOTERS 100% 82% 8% 46% 54% 29% 32% 21% 18% 67% 13% 13% 6% COMP. OF LIKELY VOTERS 100% 92% 8% 47% 53% 28% 32% 22% 17% 68% 13% 13% 6% 800 NEW YORK ADULTS WERE INTERVIEWED BY TELEPHONE 10/9-10/11. OF THEM, 675 WERE REGISTERED TO VOTE. OF THEM, 606 WERE JUDGED TO BE 'LIKELY' PRESIDENTIAL VOTERS. GRAPHS REFLECT 'LIKELY' VOTERS. PAGE 8 OF 12

9 RAW COUNTS FOR ALL RESPONSE CHOICES THE RESPONSES OF A SUBPOPULATION OF 100 WOULD TYPICALLY BE CONSIDERED ACCURATE ± 10%. PLEASE EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION IN DRAWING CONCLUSIONS FROM SUBPOPULATIONS SMALLER THAN 100 REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT/OTHER NOT SURE GRAD SCHOOL COLLEGE GRAD SOME COLLEGE NO COLLEGE CONSERVATIVE MODERATE LIBERAL NOT SURE REGISTERED CERTAIN PROBABLE LIKELY BUSH (R) KERRY (D) OTHER UNDECIDED TOTAL COMPOSITION OF ADULTS 100% 22% 38% 22% 2% 22% 19% 24% 35% 28% 42% 21% 6% COMP. OF REG. VOTERS 100% 27% 46% 26% 2% 23% 20% 25% 31% 28% 43% 22% 5% COMP. OF LIKELY VOTERS 100% 27% 47% 24% 2% 24% 21% 25% 29% 28% 44% 22% 4% 800 NEW YORK ADULTS WERE INTERVIEWED BY TELEPHONE 10/9-10/11. OF THEM, 675 WERE REGISTERED TO VOTE. OF THEM, 606 WERE JUDGED TO BE 'LIKELY' PRESIDENTIAL VOTERS. GRAPHS REFLECT 'LIKELY' VOTERS. PAGE 9 OF 12

10 RAW COUNTS FOR ALL RESPONSE CHOICES THE RESPONSES OF A SUBPOPULATION OF 100 WOULD TYPICALLY BE CONSIDERED ACCURATE ± 10%. PLEASE EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION IN DRAWING CONCLUSIONS FROM SUBPOPULATIONS SMALLER THAN 100 NO RELIGIOUS SERVICES OCCASIONAL RELIGIOUS SERVICES REGULAR RELIGIOUS SERVICES PRO-LIFE PRO-CHOICE NOT SURE MILITARY/VET NON-MILITARY/VET UNION NON-UNION NOT SURE REGISTERED CERTAIN PROBABLE LIKELY BUSH (R) KERRY (D) OTHER UNDECIDED TOTAL COMPOSITION OF ADULTS 100% 28% 37% 31% 31% 56% 7% 42% 51% 32% 57% 3% COMP. OF REG. VOTERS 100% 27% 37% 33% 31% 58% 7% 44% 50% 34% 56% 3% COMP. OF LIKELY VOTERS 100% 27% 37% 34% 31% 59% 6% 43% 51% 35% 56% 3% 800 NEW YORK ADULTS WERE INTERVIEWED BY TELEPHONE 10/9-10/11. OF THEM, 675 WERE REGISTERED TO VOTE. OF THEM, 606 WERE JUDGED TO BE 'LIKELY' PRESIDENTIAL VOTERS. GRAPHS REFLECT 'LIKELY' VOTERS. PAGE 10 OF 12

11 RAW COUNTS FOR ALL RESPONSE CHOICES THE RESPONSES OF A SUBPOPULATION OF 100 WOULD TYPICALLY BE CONSIDERED ACCURATE ± 10%. PLEASE EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION IN DRAWING CONCLUSIONS FROM SUBPOPULATIONS SMALLER THAN 100 < $40K/YR $40K - $80K/YR > $80K/YR DECLINE NEW YORK CITY NYC SUBURBS UPSTATE NY URBAN SUBURBAN RURAL VOTED 'FOR' CANDIDATE 'AGAINST' OTHER CAND. NOT SURE REGISTERED CERTAIN PROBABLE LIKELY BUSH (R) KERRY (D) OTHER UNDECIDED TOTAL COMPOSITION OF ADULTS 100% 31% 31% 21% 6% 40% 27% 33% 50% 43% 8% COMP. OF REG. VOTERS 100% 29% 33% 24% 5% 38% 29% 34% 46% 45% 8% COMP. OF LIKELY VOTERS 100% 27% 34% 25% 6% 37% 29% 34% 46% 46% 8% 800 NEW YORK ADULTS WERE INTERVIEWED BY TELEPHONE 10/9-10/11. OF THEM, 675 WERE REGISTERED TO VOTE. OF THEM, 606 WERE JUDGED TO BE 'LIKELY' PRESIDENTIAL VOTERS. GRAPHS REFLECT 'LIKELY' VOTERS. PAGE 11 OF 12

12 The following is a material part of this report and should be included when data is referenced: How this poll was conducted: This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. Page 1 of this report contains: the geography that was surveyed; the dates interviews were conducted; the news organization that paid for the research; and the name of the random sample provider. The universe of respondents and the margin of error are stated on Page 2 of this report, and if restated on one or more subsequent pages, it is because the universe and margin of error changed for those subsequent questions. Where necessary, responses were weighted according to age, gender, ethnic origin, geographical area and number of adults and number of voice telephone lines in the household, so that the sample would reflect the actual demographic proportions in the population, using most recent U.S. Census estimates. In theory, with the stated sample size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. Fieldwork for this survey was done by SurveyUSA of Verona, NJ. These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls. PAGE 12 OF 12

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