National Survey Results: Federal Vote Intention Tight 3-Way Race June 25, 2015

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1 National Survey Results: Federal Vote Intention Tight 3-Way Race June 25, 2015

2 Methodology Environics conducted a live interview telephone survey of 2,003 adult Canadians, 18 years of age and over. The survey was conducted June 3-18, The data was weighted by gender, age and region to match the Canadian census population parameters. Among the 2,003 respondents, 1,541 people (7) were decided eligible voters ( will not vote and 1 are undecided or refused to say). The margin of error for a random sample based survey of 1,541 is plus or minus 2.4 percentage points (at the 9 confidence level). 2

3 Highlights There is now a virtual three-way dead-heat between Canada s major parties. The NDP () narrowly lead the Conservatives and Liberals ( each) in national vote intention but all three parties are within the margin of error of one another. Another six percent support the Bloc Québécois ( in Quebec) and five percent support the Green party 3

4 Regional highlights The NDP has a clear lead in Quebec with 3 support compared to for the Bloc Québécois and 23% for the Liberals. Conservative support is very weak in Quebec at just nine percent. Ontario is a close race between the Liberals (3) and Conservatives (33%) with the NDP running a strong third (2). The Conservatives dominate in the three Prairie provinces, though NDP support in Alberta is strong by historical standards at 29%. The Liberals (39%) narrowly lead the NDP (32%) in Atlantic Canada. BC is very much a three way race: the NDP and Conservatives are tied at each with Liberals close behind at 2. Greens trail with 12 percent. 4

5 Demographic highlights In the past age and gender were significant predictors of party support in Canada. This was typically characterized by the Conservatives having much more support among older people and men and the NDP doing much better among women and younger people. We now find that Conservative support is only slightly stronger among men and older people. Conversely the NDP has slightly more support among younger people and those with lower and mid-range incomes. It is notable that the NDP and the Liberals tie the Conservatives among men and the NDP is only slightly behind the other parties among those aged 60 or over. Education has now emerged as the key determinant of vote intention. Conservative support is particularly strong among those with less than high school education and weak among university graduates. The reverse is true of NDP and Liberal support. 5

6 Tight three-way race. NDP two-point lead is within margin of error Vote intention Decided voters Conservative Party New Democratic Party Liberal Party Bloc Québécois Green Party Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for? Subsample: Decided eligible voters (n=1,541) 6

7 NDP leads in Quebec; Conservatives lead across the Prairies; Ontario, BC and Atlantic are close races Vote intention By region Total Atlantic 22% 32% 39% QC 9% 3 23% ON 33% 2 3 Man/Sask 41% 9% Alberta 48% 29% 1 BC 2 12% Conservative NDP Liberal Bloc Green Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for? Subsample: Decided eligible voters (n=1,541) 7

8 Conservative support is higher among men than among women Vote intention By gender Total Men 29% Women 2 9% Conservative NDP Liberal Bloc Green Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for? Subsample: Decided eligible voters (n=1,541) 8

9 Conservative support skews slightly older, Green support skews younger Vote intention By age Total % 2 4% 12% % % % 2 4% Conservative NDP Liberal Bloc Green Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for? Subsample: Decided eligible voters (n=1,541) 9

10 Education now the most predictive demographic variable: Conservative support skews strongly to those with the least education; NDP support highest among university grads Vote intention By education level Total Less than high school 3 23% 4% 8% High school % College/Some Univ 29% 32% 2 University degree 3 3% Conservative NDP Liberal Bloc Green Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for? Subsample: Decided eligible voters (n=1,541)) 10

11 Conservative support skews slightly to higher incomes, NDP support is quite flat across income bands Vote intention By household income level Total <$30K 33% 2 10% $30K - <$50K 21% 3 8% $50K - <$80K 2 34% $80K - <$100K 29% $100K+ 29% Conservative NDP Liberal Bloc Green Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for? Subsample: Decided eligible voters (n=1,541) 11

12 Derek Leebosh Vice President, Public Affairs Environics Research Group Ltd

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