National Tracking Poll

Transcription

1 National Tracking Poll Project: N Size: 1543 Registered Voters Margin of Error: ± 2% Topline Report September 24-27, 2015 P1 Question Response Frequency Percentage Now, generally speaking, would you say that things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Right Direction % Wrong Track % P2NET P2 P3 NM1NET Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President? Approve % Disapprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 59 4% Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President? Strongly Approve % Somewhat Approve % Somewhat Disapprove % Strongly Disapprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 59 4% Now, thinking about your vote, what would you say is the top set of issues on your mind when you cast your vote for federal offices such as U.S. Senate or Congress? Economic Issues % Security Issues % Health Care Issues % Senior s Issues % Women s Issues 69 4% Education Issues 82 5% Energy Issues 42 3% Other 36 2% How has the 2010 health care law affected you and your family? Has it made things... Total Better % Total Worse % Had No Effect % Don t Know / No Opinion 114 7% Page 1

2 NM1 Question Response Frequency Percentage How has the 2010 health care law affected you and your family? Has it made things... A lot better % A little better % Had no effect % A little worse % A lot worse % Don t Know / No Opinion 114 7% NM2NET NM2 NM3NET NM3 And, compared to five years ago when the 2010 health care law was passed by President Obama and Congress... Do you think health insurance is more affordable or less affordable today? Total More Affordable % Total Less Affordable % About the Same % Don t Know / No Opinion % And, compared to five years ago when the 2010 health care law was passed by President Obama and Congress... Do you think health insurance is more affordable or less affordable today? Much more affordable % Somewhat more affordable % About the same % Somewhat less affordable % Much less affordable % Dont know / No opinion % In the long run, how do you think the 2010 health care law will affect how much you pay in total health care costs, such as appointment co-payments, monthly premiums, annual deductibles and drug co-payments? Will it make health care... Total More Expensive % Total Less Expensive % About the Same % Don t Know / No Opinion % In the long run, how do you think the 2010 health care law will affect how much you pay in total health care costs, such as appointment co-payments, monthly premiums, annual deductibles and drug co-payments? Will it make health care... Much more expensive % Somewhat more expensive % About the same % Somewhat less expensive 107 7% Much less expensive 57 4% Don t Know / No Opinion % Page 2

3 NM4 Question Response Frequency Percentage To the best of your knowledge, which of the following do you think describes what the Cadillac tax is in the United States? A tax on luxury cars 125 8% A tax on high cost health plans % An import tax for goods purchased from China 64 4% An export tax on luxury goods % A tax on cars that do not meet national fuel efficiency 86 6% standards Don t Know / No Opinion % NM5 NM6 NM7NET NM7 Now thinking about your current health care plan, would you describe the level of benefits in your current health care plan as...? (N=1,415) High % About average % Low % Dont Know / No opinion 85 6% To the best of your knowledge, which of the following do you think best describes a high-cost benefits plan? Health care plans offered by companies and unions % where employees have relatively low premiums, co-pays and deductibles. Health care plans offered to low-income families 116 8% Health care plans that require individuals to be over the 72 5% age of 65 Health care plans that have a high deductible % Don t Know / No Opinion % As you may know, the 2010 health care law includes a tax on high-cost health plans to help pay for other aspects of the law. Do you support or oppose including this tax on high-cost health plans? Total Support % Total Oppose % Don t Know / No Opinion % As you may know, the 2010 health care law includes a tax on high-cost health plans to help pay for other aspects of the law. Do you support or oppose including this tax on high-cost health plans? Strongly Support 96 6% Somewhat Support % Somewhat Oppose % Strongly Oppose % Don t Know / No Opinion % Page 3

4 Question Response Frequency Percentage NM8_1NET these types of health plans? Nearly one in 20 American companies offer their employees a plan that is considered high-cost and will be hit with the tax More Likely to Support % Less Likely to Support % Neither More or Less Likely to Support % Don t Know / No Opinion % NM8_1 NM8_2NET NM8_2 NM8_3NET these types of health plans? Nearly one in 20 American companies offer their employees a plan that is considered high-cost and will be hit with the tax Much more likely to support 80 5% Somewhat more likely to support 126 8% Neither more or less likely to support % Somewhat less likely to support % Much less likely to support % Don t Know / No Opinion % these types of health plans? Many individuals with chronic illnesses who need expensive, high quality health insurance will be affected by the tax More Likely to Support % Less Likely to Support % Neither More or Less Likely to Support % Don t Know / No Opinion % these types of health plans? Many individuals with chronic illnesses who need expensive, high quality health insurance will be affected by the tax Much more likely to support 102 7% Somewhat more likely to support 134 9% Neither more or less likely to support % Somewhat less likely to support % Much less likely to support % Don t Know / No Opinion % these types of health plans? By 2022, more than half of all employers would be hit with the tax More Likely to Support % Less Likely to Support % Neither More or Less Likely to Support % Don t Know / No Opinion % Page 4

5 Question Response Frequency Percentage NM8_3 these types of health plans? By 2022, more than half of all employers would be hit with the tax Much more likely to support 90 6% Somewhat more likely to support 109 7% Neither more or less likely to support % Somewhat less likely to support % Much less likely to support % Don t Know / No Opinion % NM8_4NET NM8_4 NM8_5NET NM8_5 these types of health plans? Employees could see up to a $6,150 reduction in their health care benefits and little or no increase in their pay as a result of this tax More Likely to Support % Less Likely to Support % Neither More or Less Likely to Support % Don t Know / No Opinion % these types of health plans? Employees could see up to a $6,150 reduction in their health care benefits and little or no increase in their pay as a result of this tax Much more likely to support 143 9% Somewhat more likely to support % Neither more or less likely to support % Somewhat less likely to support % Much less likely to support % Don t Know / No Opinion % these types of health plans? About half of employers will have a health plan that will be subject to this tax within two years More Likely to Support % Less Likely to Support % Neither More or Less Likely to Support % Don t Know / No Opinion % these types of health plans? About half of employers will have a health plan that will be subject to this tax within two years Much more likely to support 83 5% Somewhat more likely to support % Neither more or less likely to support % Somewhat less likely to support % Much less likely to support % Don t Know / No Opinion % Page 5

6 NM9 Question Response Frequency Percentage Upon learning that the tax on these health plans goes into effect in a little over 2 years, do you think it should be... Started as is % Delayed % Repealed % Dont Know / No opinion % NM10 NM11 NM12 NM13NET NM13 NM14 Do you think that the tax on these health plans will... Increase health care costs % Decrease health care costs 114 7% Have no effect on health care costs % Dont know/ No Opinion % Do you think that the tax on these health plans will... Improve the quality of health care % Harm the quality of health care % Have no effect on the quality of health care % Dont know/ No Opinion % How much do you think the tax on these health plans will affect your health care coverage? A Lot % Some % Not Much % Not At All % If the tax on these health plans goes into effect in 2018, how likely is it that employers will reduce benefits by increasing deductibles, increasing co-payments, and restricting coverage of medicines to avoid the tax? Total likely % Total unlikely 124 8% Don t Know / No Opinion % If the tax on these health plans goes into effect in 2018, how likely is it that employers will reduce benefits by increasing deductibles, increasing co-payments, and restricting coverage of medicines to avoid the tax? Very likely % Somewhat likely % Somewhat unlikely 88 6% Very unlikely 35 2% Don t Know / No Opinion % Do you think your coverage will be subject to this tax? (N=1,415) Yes % No % Page 6

7 Question Response Frequency Percentage NM15NET If you knew your health benefits were subject to this tax, would you more likely or less likely to support this tax? Total More Likely to Support % Total Less Likely to Support % No Impact on Support % Don t Know / No Opinion % NM15 NM16NET NM16 NM17NET NM17 If you knew your health benefits were subject to this tax, would you more likely or less likely to support this tax? Much more likely to support 64 4% Somewhat more likely to support 91 6% No impact on support % Somewhat less likely to support % Much less likely to support % Don t Know / No Opinion % After learning more about the tax on these health plans, would you say you are more concerned or less concerned about it going into effect? Total more concerned % Total less concerned 140 9% Don t Know / No Opinion % After learning more about the tax on these health plans, would you say you are more concerned or less concerned about it going into effect? Much more concerned % Somewhat more concerned % Somewhat less concerned 112 7% Much less concerned 28 2% Don t Know / No Opinion % Would you be more or less likely to vote for your Member of Congress if they OPPOSE the tax on these health plans, a tax which is sometimes referred to as the Cadillac Tax? Total more likely % Total less likely % Don t Know / No Opinion % Would you be more or less likely to vote for your Member of Congress if they OPPOSE the tax on these health plans, a tax which is sometimes referred to as the Cadillac Tax? Much more likely % Somewhat more likely % Somewhat less likely 111 7% Much less likely 85 5% Don t Know / No Opinion % Page 7

8 Question Response Frequency Percentage NM18NET Would you be more or less likely to vote for your Member of Congress if they SUPPORT repealing the tax on these health plans, a tax which is sometimes referred to as the Cadillac Tax? Total more likely % Total less likely % Don t Know / No Opinion % NM18 NM19 NM20 NM21NET Would you be more or less likely to vote for your Member of Congress if they SUPPORT repealing the tax on these health plans, a tax which is sometimes referred to as the Cadillac Tax? Much more likely % Somewhat more likely % Somewhat less likely 136 9% Much less likely % Don t Know / No Opinion % As you may know, the tax on these health plans is estimated to bring in $87 billion over the next 10 years. If this tax on health plans is stopped, do you think the government should find other money to make up for this lost money, or not? Yes % No % Don t Know / No Opinion % Which of the following statements do you agree with more, even if neither is exactly right? I would support repealing this tax on health plans only % if a replacement source of money is found I would support repealing this tax on health plans even % if a replacement source of money is not found Don t Know / No Opinion % As you may know, employees do not pay taxes on the health insurance provided by their employers. Some say not paying taxes on these benefits increases the use of health care services. Others say excluding company-provided health insurance from federal taxes encourages employers to provide health insurance to their employees. Would you support or oppose paying taxes on the health insurance individuals receive from their employers? Total Support % Total Oppose % Don t Know / No Opinion % Page 8

9 Question Response Frequency Percentage NM21 As you may know, employees do not pay taxes on the health insurance provided by their employers. Some say not paying taxes on these benefits increases the use of health care services. Others say excluding company-provided health insurance from federal taxes encourages employers to provide health insurance to their employees. Would you support or oppose paying taxes on the health insurance individuals receive from their employers? Strongly Support 122 8% Somewhat Support % Somewhat Oppose % Strongly Oppose % Don t Know / No Opinion % Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated for registered voters with demographic post-stratification weights applied. Page 9

10 Respondent Demographics Summary Morning Consult Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdemall Registered Voters % xdemgender Gender: Male % Gender: Female % age5 Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % xpid3 PID: Dem (no lean) % PID: Ind (no lean) % PID: Rep (no lean) % xpidgender PID/Gender: Dem Men % PID/Gender: Dem Women % PID/Gender: Ind Men % PID/Gender: Ind Women % PID/Gender: Rep Men % PID/Gender: Rep Women % xdemtea Tea Party: Supporter % Tea Party: Not Supporter % N 1530 xdemideo3 Ideo: Liberal (1-3) % Ideo: Moderate (4) % Ideo: Conservative (5-7) % N 1438 xeduc3 Educ: < College % Educ: Bachelors degree % Educ: Post-grad % xdeminc3 Income: Under 50k % Income: 50k-100k % Income: 100k % Continued on next page Page 10

11 National Tracking Poll #150908, September, 2015 Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdemwhite Ethnicity: White % xdemhispbin Ethnicity: Hispanic 138 9% demblackbin Ethnicity: Afr. Am % demraceother Ethnicity: Other 88 6% xrelnet Relig: Protestant % Relig: Roman Catholic % Relig: Ath./Agn./None % Relig: Something Else % N 1352 xreligion1 Relig: Jewish 29 2% xreligion2 Relig: Evangelical % Relig: Non-Evang. Catholics % N 984 xreligion3 Relig: All Christian % Relig: All Non-Christian % N 1542 xdemusr Community: Urban % Community: Suburban % Community: Rural % N 1537 xdememploy Employ: Private Sector % Employ: Government 124 8% Employ: Self-Employed 122 8% Employ: Homemaker % Employ: Student 51 3% Employ: Retired % Employ: Unemployed 114 7% Employ: Other 72 5% N 1537 xdemjobstatus Job Type: White-collar % Job Type: Blue-collar % Job Type: Don t Know % N 1537 xdemmilhh1 Military HH: Yes % Military HH: No % N 1537 Continued on next page Page 11

12 Morning Consult Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xnr1 RD/WT: Right Direction % RD/WT: Wrong Track % xnr2bin Obama Job: Approve % Obama Job: Disapprove % N 1484 xnr3 #1 Issue: Economy % #1 Issue: Security % #1 Issue: Health Care % #1 Issue: Medicare / Social Security % #1 Issue: Women s Issues 69 4% #1 Issue: Education 82 5% #1 Issue: Energy 42 3% #1 Issue: Other 36 2% xsubvote14o 2014 Vote: Democrat % 2014 Vote: Republican % 2014 Vote: Other 81 5% 2014 Vote: Didn t Vote % N 1535 xsubvote12o 2012 Vote: Barack Obama % 2012 Vote: Mitt Romney % 2012 Vote: Other 81 5% 2012 Vote: Didn t Vote % N 1542 xreg4 4-Region: Northeast % 4-Region: Midwest % 4-Region: South % 4-Region: West % Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated with demographic post-stratification weights applied. Page 12

13 National Tracking Poll #150908, September, 2015 Page 13