GAS TAX REFERENDUM 51 GAINS GROUND; INITIATIVE 776 REJECTED

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1 GAS TAX REFERENDUM 51 GAINS GROUND; INITIATIVE 776 REJECTED * EXCLUSIVE SURVEYUSA RESEARCH RESULTS * YOU MUST CREDIT SURVEYUSA IF YOU AIR, CITE OR REPRINT THESE RESULTS IN WHOLE OR PART HERE ARE SOME OF THE KEY FINDINGS FROM THIS SURVEY IN AN ELECTION TODAY, WASHINGTON VOTERS REJECT REFERENDUM 51, THE GASOLINE TAX, & REJECT INITIATIVE 776, THE EXCISE TAX REPEAL, ACCORDING TO THIS LATEST KING-TV POLL OF 581 LIKELY VOTERS, CONDUCTED 10/ / /14 BY SURVEYUSA. ELECTION IS 11/5. REFERENDUM 51 GETS 43% "YES" AND 55% "NO". IN AN IDENTICAL POLL 2 WEEKS AGO, IT FAILED BY 26 POINTS. NOW IT FAILED BY ONLY 12 PTS. INITIATIVE 776 GETS 35% "YES" AND 62% "NO". 2 WEEKS AGO IT TRAILED BY 21; NOW BY 27. LIBERALS SUPPORT REFERENDUM 51. CONSERVATIVES AND MODERATES OPPOSE IT. ALL GROUPS OPPOSE INITIATIVE 776. SURVEY OF 1,000 WA ADULTS: 808 REGISTERED, 549 LIKELY #51 & 581 LIKELY #776 VOTERS. RESEARCH CONDUCTED E.T :00-18: :00-23: :56-22:49 APPROVED RESPONDENTS DRAWN FROM THE ENTIRE STATE OF WASHINGTON RANDOM SAMPLE SELECTED BY SURVEY SAMPLING, INC. FOR COMMENT, ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS OR ACTUALITY, CALL HYPOTENUSE INC. SURVEYUSA IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF HYPOTENUSE INC. LONG DISTANCE SERVICES PROVIDED BY PAGE 1 OF 12

2 Q1: VOTE ON REFERENDUM 51 / ALL LIKELY VOTERS ELECTION DAY IS 11/5. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF ISSUES ON THE BALLOT. NOT EVERYONE WILL VOTE ON ALL ISSUES. FIRST, WE WANT TO ASK ABOUT THE GASOLINE TAX REFERENDUM, REFERENDUM 51. REF. 51 WILL INCREASE TRANSPORTATION SPENDING THROUGH INCREASED GASOLINE TAXES, VEHICLE SALES TAXES, & WEIGHT FEES. IF THE ELECTION WERE TODAY, AND YOU WERE STANDING IN THE VOTING BOOTH RIGHT NOW, WOULD YOU VOTE YES? WOULD YOU VOTE NO?...OR WOULD YOU NOT VOTE? ON REFERENDUM 51? YES 43% NO 55% UNDECIDED 1% THIS IS A SURVEY OF 549 LIKELY VOTERS FROM THE ENTIRE STATE OF WASHINGTON RESULTS CONSIDERED SIGNIFICANT ±4.3% A LARGER ± APPLIES TO SUBPOPULATIONS RESULTS MAY NOT ADD TO 100%, BECAUSE PERCENTAGES ARE ROUNDED TO WHOLE NUMBERS PAGE 2 OF 12

3 Q1: VOTE ON REFERENDUM 51 / ALL LIKELY VOTERS, TRACKED OVER TIME 65% 60% 61% 60% 62% 55% 55% 50% 45% 43% 40% 35% 35% 37% 36% 30% 7/26 8/27 10/1 10/15 YES NO PAGE 3 OF 12

4 Q2: VOTE ON INITIATIVE 776? / ALL LIKELY VOTERS INITIATIVE 776 WOULD REPEAL LOCAL-OPTION VEHICLE EXCISE TAXES AND FEES USED FOR ROADS AND TRANSIT. A "YES" VOTE WOULD REPEAL THE TAXES AND FEES, AND A "NO" VOTE WOULD LEAVE THEM IN PLACE. IF THE ELECTION WERE TODAY, AND YOU WERE STANDING IN THE VOTING BOOTH RIGHT NOW, WOULD YOU VOTE YES? OR WOULD YOU VOTE NO? ON INITIATIVE 776? YES 35% NO 62% UNDECIDED 3% THIS IS A SURVEY OF 581 LIKELY VOTERS FROM THE ENTIRE STATE OF WASHINGTON RESULTS CONSIDERED SIGNIFICANT ±4% A LARGER ± APPLIES TO SUBPOPULATIONS RESULTS MAY NOT ADD TO 100%, BECAUSE PERCENTAGES ARE ROUNDED TO WHOLE NUMBERS PAGE 4 OF 12

5 Q2: VOTE ON INITIATIVE 776? / ALL LIKELY VOTERS, TRACKED OVER TIME 65% 60% 58% 61% 59% 62% 55% 50% 45% 40% 40% 38% 36% 35% 35% 30% 7/26 8/27 10/1 10/15 YES NO PAGE 5 OF 12

6 Q1: VOTE ON REFERENDUM 51 / RESPONSES COMPARED BY PERCENTAGES AND BY INDEX MALE FEMALE AGE AGE AGE 55+ WHITE BLACK HISPANIC OTHER WESTERN WASHINGTON EASTERN WASHINGTON METRO SEATTLE RESPONSES SORTED BY DEMOGRAPHIC CATEGORY YES 43% 44% 42% 41% 41% 48% 45% 20% 27% 37% 43% 34% 47% NO 55% 55% 56% 58% 58% 50% 54% 80% 71% 63% 55% 65% 52% UNDECIDED 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 0% 1% 0% 2% 1% 1% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% DEMOGRAPHIC SUBPOPULATIONS INDEXED TO RESPONSES YES NO UNDECIDED MALE FEMALE AGE AGE AGE 55+ WHITE BLACK HISPANIC OTHER WESTERN WASHINGTON EASTERN WASHINGTON METRO SEATTLE PAGE 6 OF 12

7 Q1: VOTE ON REFERENDUM 51 / RESPONSES COMPARED BY PERCENTAGES AND BY INDEX CONSERVATIVE MODERATE LIBERAL RESPONSES SORTED BY DEMOGRAPHIC CATEGORY YES 43% 33% 46% 54% NO 55% 66% 52% 46% UNDECIDED 1% 2% 1% 0% 100% 100% 100% 100% DEMOGRAPHIC SUBPOPULATIONS INDEXED TO RESPONSES YES NO UNDECIDED CONSERVATIVE MODERATE LIBERAL PAGE 7 OF 12

8 Q2: VOTE ON INITIATIVE 776? / RESPONSES COMPARED BY PERCENTAGES AND BY INDEX MALE FEMALE AGE AGE AGE 55+ WHITE BLACK HISPANIC OTHER WESTERN WASHINGTON EASTERN WASHINGTON METRO SEATTLE RESPONSES SORTED BY DEMOGRAPHIC CATEGORY YES 35% 37% 33% 34% 36% 35% 34% 29% 45% 46% 33% 33% 37% NO 62% 60% 64% 61% 63% 63% 64% 66% 51% 49% 65% 64% 60% UNDECIDED 3% 3% 3% 5% 2% 3% 3% 6% 4% 5% 2% 3% 3% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% DEMOGRAPHIC SUBPOPULATIONS INDEXED TO RESPONSES YES NO UNDECIDED MALE FEMALE AGE AGE AGE 55+ WHITE BLACK HISPANIC OTHER WESTERN WASHINGTON EASTERN WASHINGTON METRO SEATTLE PAGE 8 OF 12

9 Q2: VOTE ON INITIATIVE 776? / RESPONSES COMPARED BY PERCENTAGES AND BY INDEX CONSERVATIVE MODERATE LIBERAL RESPONSES SORTED BY DEMOGRAPHIC CATEGORY YES 35% 43% 30% 33% NO 62% 54% 68% 61% UNDECIDED 3% 3% 2% 6% 100% 100% 100% 100% DEMOGRAPHIC SUBPOPULATIONS INDEXED TO RESPONSES YES NO UNDECIDED CONSERVATIVE MODERATE LIBERAL PAGE 9 OF 12

10 RAW COUNTS FOR ALL RESPONSE CHOICES THE RESPONSES OF A SUBPOPULATION OF 100 WOULD TYPICALLY BE CONSIDERED ACCURATE ± 10% PLEASE EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION IN DRAWING CONCLUSIONS FROM SUBPOPULATIONS SMALLER THAN 100 MALE FEMALE AGE AGE AGE 55+ WHITE BLACK HISPANIC OTHER WESTERN WASHINGTON EASTERN WASHINGTON METRO SEATTLE REGISTERED NOT REGISTERED UNDECIDED WILL VOTE ON UNDECIDED YES NO UNDECIDED WILL VOTE ON UNDECIDED YES NO UNDECIDED TOTAL COMPOSITION OF ADULTS 100% 49% 51% 31% 42% 26% 82% 3% 6% 9% 26% 22% 53% COMPOSITION OF RV 100% 48% 52% 26% 44% 30% 87% 2% 4% 7% 25% 21% 53% LIKELY 51 VOTERS COMP OF LIKELY 51 VOTERS 100% 52% 48% 22% 46% 32% 88% 1% 4% 6% 26% 21% 53% LIKELY 776 VOTERS COMP OF LIKELY 776 VOTERS 100% 53% 47% 24% 46% 30% 88% 2% 4% 6% 25% 21% 53% PAGE 10 OF 12

11 RAW COUNTS FOR ALL RESPONSE CHOICES THE RESPONSES OF A SUBPOPULATION OF 100 WOULD TYPICALLY BE CONSIDERED ACCURATE ± 10% PLEASE EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION IN DRAWING CONCLUSIONS FROM SUBPOPULATIONS SMALLER THAN 100 CONSERVATIVE MODERATE LIBERAL REGISTERED NOT REGISTERED UNDECIDED WILL VOTE ON UNDECIDED YES NO UNDECIDED WILL VOTE ON UNDECIDED YES NO UNDECIDED TOTAL COMPOSITION OF ADULTS 100% 31% 50% 18% COMPOSITION OF RV 100% 32% 51% 16% LIKELY 51 VOTERS COMP OF LIKELY 51 VOTERS 100% 31% 51% 16% LIKELY 776 VOTERS COMP OF LIKELY 776 VOTERS 100% 32% 53% 15% PAGE 11 OF 12

12 The following is a material part of this report and should be included when data is referenced: How this poll was conducted: This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. Page 1 of this report contains: the geography that was surveyed; the dates interviews were conducted; the news organization that paid for the research; and the name of the random sample provider. The universe of respondents and the margin of error are stated on Page 2 of this report, and if restated on one or more subsequent pages, it is because the universe and margin of error changed for those subsequent questions. Where necessary, responses were weighted according to age, gender, ethnic origin, geographical area and number of adults and number of voice telephone lines in the household, so that the sample would reflect the actual demographic proportions in the population, using most recent U.S. Census estimates. In theory, with the stated sample size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. Fieldwork for this survey was done by SurveyUSA of Verona, NJ. These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council of Public Polls. PAGE 12 OF 12

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