What is climate change and

Transcription

1 What is climate change and what can we do about it? Dr Tony Weir Pacific Centre for Environment and Sustainable Development University of the South Pacific Pacific Ports Conference 6 September 2010

2 Climate and Climate Change Climate is the (30 year) average of weather, including ranges (variability) and patterns Climate change is change over decadal time scales Minimum temperature at Suva Trend 30-yr variability

3 Climate change = global warming (IPCC- A1B, av rel to av )

4 Sea level rise (expansion only, without ice melt) 1.0m -> 0 ->

5 What Does this mean for the Pacific? Sea Level Rise (adds to effects of storms and high tides) Kiribati

6 Water Sources As sea level rises, salty water enters the freshwater water lens of an atoll and ruins drinking water and crops

7 Stronger cyclones Perhaps no more frequent but probably more intense (and possibly more in Eastern Pacific) TC Heta January 2004

8 Global issues MITIGATING THE CAUSE OF CLIMATE CHANGE Reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (industrialised countries) Emission reductions (other large countries, e.g. China etc) HELP TO DEAL WITH THE SYMPTOMS Adaptation (assistance to vulnerable countries) Technology and finances

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10 Pacific hopes for international action Copenhagen 2009!! Cancun 2010??

11 Key concepts for any hazard Vulnerability: the potential to be harmed Adaptation: adjustments to reduce vulnerability ( being prepared )

12 Adaptation to climate change in the Pacific Dealing with climate change is mainly dealing with extreme climate events like those we already encounter. But the extremes may be more severe and/or more frequent than now. Pacific people adapted in the past to such events and can do much to do so now. It s like the step-up from club football to international football: same game but it s tougher. Exception: Long term sea level rise may require migration to higher ground or even to other countries

13 An adaptation to flooding: stilts (Buretu, Rewa delta, Fiji)

14 Seawalls: work only if well engineered and well maintained (both rare!) Votua (Coral Coast) Denerau, Fiji

15 Coastal Protection Units (Cook Islands)

16 (1) days after CPU units installed (2) 10 years later (3) 5 years after units removed.

17 Nadi Town, Fiji, 2006: flooding becoming annual event

18 Short-term solutions not sustainable in long-term Flooding in Nadi Town, Fiji May 2007

19 Nadi Town (Fiji): the imperative for re-location [Nunn, 2007]

20 Re-location: the ultimate adaptation? Acceptance that in future some places cannot continue to be occupied or utilised (as they are today). Disruption associated with relocation can be reduced by early (anticipatory) action. Maloku, Moala Island, Fiji

21 CROSS-CUTTING ISSUE #1: Taking ownership of climate change Economic development of Pacific Island nations is inextricably tied to environmental productivity. Pacific Island nations should not continue to depend on external funding for climate-change adaptation; they should accept the issue as one that affects them intimately and should signal this acceptance by committing recurrent in-country funds.

22 CROSS-CUTTING ISSUE #2: Effective long-range planning Long-term national plans should focus on environmental sustainability not short-term profit. Prevention costs less than cure. (-> Climate-proofing : Build infrastructure right the first time!

23 CROSS-CUTTING ISSUE #3: Mainstreaming climate-change awareness Media responsibility Coordinated efforts to raise awareness through written and oral outreach Role of churches School education

24 CROSS-CUTTING ISSUE #4: Empowering communities Direct targeting of community-level decision-makers by international donors and NGOs Awareness raising by national bodies

25 The Way Forward Land loss Anticipating future land loss re-locating vulnerable activities strengthening coastal resilience

26 The Way Forward Effective management Taking ownership of climate change Long-term development plans Mainstream climatechange awareness Empowering community leaders Re-locating vulnerable activities

27 The way forward: USP teaching on Climate Change Course on climate change impacts and adaptation (V&A) is now online annually Aimed at officials, NGO and church workers, community leaders, etc Short courses on request Full postgraduate diploma in climate change offered from 2010 (with scholarships from AusAID)

28 Training informal formal EU Global Climate Change Alliance (Pacific regional component, 8m Euro) - From USP to lead Engagement with vulnerable communities (e.g. coastal villages) Research COMMUNITY-BASED ADAPTIVE ACTIONS NATIONAL-LEVEL ADAPTATION ACTIONS Mainstreaming CC adaptation Vulnerable sectors, e.g.: * food security * water security * biodiversity * culture * tourism Linking issues: * governance * economic sustainability Vulnerable people and infrastructure: * coastal cities * coastal towns