1910 Execution: What we deliver
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1 1910 Execution: What we deliver William Howard Taft was President First Flight by Wilbur and Orville Wright 8% US Homes had Telephones 6% US Population Graduated High School 47 Year Life Expectancy for Men 1 Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15
2 That was then... Williams Established 1908 Domestic US Operations in 1 State Started Business Pouring Sidewalks Maverick Mentality No Partners Shouldered All Risks Reaped Entire Rewards Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15
3 This is Now: Williams Spanning the Entire Supply Chain Approximately 30% U.S. Gas Volumes Touch Our Systems > 2015 Time Inc. Used under license. FORTUNE and Time Inc. are not affiliated with, and do not endorse products or services of, Williams. 3 Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15
4 A Tale of Two Pipelines CONSTITUTION PIPELINE KEATHLEY CANYON CONNECTOR $4.8m per Mile $1.7m per Mile Regulators: Dozens Overlapping Regulators: 1 Strict, But Clear 122 miles, large-diameter, interstate pipeline Northeast Pennsylvania to Upstate New York Steel cost: $660k/mile Hilly terrain 200 miles, large-diameter, high-pressure Gulf of Mexico, >215 miles SW of New Orleans; 7,000 of water Steel cost: $920k/mile Hostile terrain 4 Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15
5 Execution: What we deliver How are things evolving? Complexity Pace Scrutiny Partnerships Project Types & Requirements 5 Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15
6 Execution: What we deliver How do we differentiate ourselves? Risk Management 6 Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15
7 Applying Risk Management Process at Williams to Achieve Best in Class Project Delivery Marcus Rice, Risk Analyst, Engineering & Construction, Williams Southern Gas Association Conference Tuesday July 21, :00 AM
8 Agenda/Outline for This Morning's Presentation 1. Case Study 2. Risk Process 3. Return on Risk Management 8 Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15
9 Keathley Canyon Connector Project mile gas pipeline Shallow water 4-pile platform (unmanned) Methanol Extraction plant This project delivered a large diameter deepwater gas gathering line servicing new developments planned in the Keathley Canyon area of the Gulf of Mexico. The result is a new-build 20 deepwater gas export line, a built-forpurpose junction platform, and two (2) export laterals (one provided as an emergency outlet to a third-party pipeline and the other as an outlet to an existing 30-inch pipeline system.) 9 Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15
10 Keathley Canyon Connector Project 10 Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15
11 KCC Risk Management Proposal Development High-level cost risk assessment (confidence level and event risks) All risks priced (incl. Loop Currents, Named Storms) Project Execution Construction Pre-Start Limited WFS exposure on steel prices and ForEx Span mitigation risk transferred to Producer Loop Currents, Named Storms, Regulatory Delays transferred to Producer Producer s risk premium reduced by efficient risk allocation Project Execution Construction Start Survey ranges reduced Materials ranges reduced (steel price and ForEx locked) Installation ranges reduced (lump sum portion of installation fixed) Reduced soil conditions risk (based on the survey results) Allowed for pipeline contingency to be reallocated 11 Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15
12 Execution: KCC KCC Knowledge Management Risks Managed Assumptions in budget estimates Major scope variations occurred in close conjunction with approvals Industry inexperience in new and evolving offshore regulations and codes Offshore industry consolidation and resulting rate increase Skilled Labor shortage due to increased activity in the area Increased oversight of suppliers and contractors due to inexperience or attention to the job at hand Improvements Embedded in Later Projects Identify areas that are major risks in the project and allow completion of a front-end engineering design (FEED) prior to sanction Freeze the scope and follow change management if adjustments are required Staff jobs to cope with the shortcomings of skill sets in the industry 12 Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15
13 Risk Process 13 Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15
14 Risk Process Risk Management Planning Risk Identification Knowledge Management Risk Assessment Risk Monitoring and Control Risk Response 14 Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15
15 Project Risk Management Embedded within Stage Gated Life Cycle Feasibility Option Selection Commitment Operations Start-up DISCOVER SELECT DEFINE DELIVER INTEGRATE Scope VENTURE RISKS Customer / site specific risks Deal makers and breakers Economics / commercial outcome Risk allocation strategy / deal structure PROJECT EXECUTION RISKS EH&S (managed through EH&S process) Cost Schedule Quality, etc. Objectives Identify key risks and ensure they are manageable / acceptable; select option with the best risk / reward profile Ensure readiness for managing execution risks Ensure that key risks are being managed Ensure lessons learned have been captured Activities / Tools Early risk identification, assessment, mgmt. Risk valuation & contractual allocation SRA / CRA RM Plan Risk Register Execution RM Risk Reviews Risk Reporting Lessons Learned Cost Estimate Factored estimates, conditioned for major project risks High-level estimate and Monte Carlo risk assessment Detailed estimate and Monte Carlo risk assessment Revised estimate and contingency as needed Actual cost analyzed for future benchmarking Contingency / MR % of Base % of Base % of Base % of Base Actual Monte Carlo Risk Assessments 15 Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15
16 What s the Number? 16 Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15
17 Single Point Estimate 17 Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15
18 P50 Cost Target P50 Estimate at completion (EAC) 18 Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15
19 P50 Cost and Schedule Target In-service date (ISD) P50 P50 Estimate at completion (EAC) 19 Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15
20 Contingency In-service date (ISD) P50 ISD contingency Base Estimate EAC contingency P50 Estimate at completion (EAC) 20 Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15
21 Management Reserve P90 Management reserve (MR) In-service date (ISD) P50 ISD contingency Base Estimate EAC contingency P50 Estimate at completion (EAC) P90 21 Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15
22 Modeling Real World Uncertainty and Risks Offshore Weather Delays Example Uncertainty - Continuous ranges - Market conditions / quality of estimate Risks - Binary events - Items on Risk Register 70% + 30% x No Yes Days Best Case 10 Days Base Allowance 16 Days Worst Case 30 % Chance of 7 to 14 Days Tropical Storm Risk Event 22 Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15
23 Risk Process: Risk Assessment Prepare Base Estimate Define Confidence Ranges Identify and Quantify Event Risks Perform Monte Carlo Analysis Establish Contingency & MR P50 Contingency P90 Management Reserve Min ML Max Probability x Impact 23 Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15
24 Performance & Predictability 24 Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15
25 The issue of Trust 25 Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15
26 Take-Away s Risk Management is a Continuous Process Decision Analytics Capabilities Stakeholder & reputation management Performance & Predictability Creates Trust between Us and the Customer and Trust Among Investors and Analysts. 26 Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15
27 Questions & Conversation
28 BACKUP 28 Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15
29 Capital Cost Risk Assessment Scope Cost Uncertainty Confidence Level Uncertainty Event Driven Risks Scope Changes Min ML Max Probability x Impact Commercial Risks Operational Risks - Market Conditions - Data Quality - Line Item Ranges - Uncertain Events - Potential Cost Impact - Risk Register Items Capital Cost Risk Assessment Scope Black Swans 29 Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15 Updated:
30 Risk Process: Confidence Level Uncertainty P90 Estimate = $480M P50 Estimate = $464M P50 Confidence Level Contingency ($ 14 MM) P90 Confidence Level Management Reserve (16 MM) Allowances ($5 MM) Base Estimate = $450M (In this example equals P10) Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15
31 Risk Process: Event Driven Risk (Post-Mitigation) P90 Event Risk Cost = $50M P50 Event Risk Cost = $30M P50 Event Driven Contingency ($30 MM) P90 Event Driven Management Reserve ($ 50 MM) Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15
32 Risk Process: Cost Risk Assessment P90(C) P90 Mgmt. Reserve P90(E) P50(C) P50 Contingency P50(E) Base Cost 0 Cost Estimate Line Items Value $ MM Neat Estimate 445 % of Base Cost Activity Allowances 5 Base Cost Estimate % P50 Confidence Level Contingency* 14 3% P50 Event Driven Contingency** 30 6% P50 Cost Estimate % P90 Confidence Level Management Reserve*** 16 4% P90 Event Driven Management Reserve**** 50 11% P90 Cost Estimate % Notes: **** P50 CL Contingency = P50(C) Base **** P50 ED Contingency = P50(E) **** P90 CL MR = P90(C) P50(C) **** P90 ED MR = P90(E) P50(E) 32 Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15
33 Risk Process: Schedule Risk Assessment Bluegrass Phase 1 - Segment 1 Pipeline (Pre-mitigated) PROJECT In-Service : Finish Date 100% 22-Aug-17 95% 10-Oct % 18-Aug-16 85% 13-Jul-16 80% 20-Jun-16 Hits Feb Aug Mar-17 Distribution (start of interval) 75% 03-Jun-16 70% 24-May-16 65% 16-May-16 60% 06-May-16 55% 29-Apr-16 50% 21-Apr-16 45% 13-Apr-16 40% 06-Apr-16 35% 30-Mar-16 30% 23-Mar-16 25% 16-Mar-16 20% 11-Mar-16 15% 07-Mar-16 10% 29-Feb-16 5% 19-Feb-16 0% 18-Jan-16 Cumulative Frequency 33 Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15
34 Risk Process: Schedule Risk Assessment Deterministic Duration / Milestone P50 Duration / Milestone P90 Duration / Milestone 34 Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15
35 Risk Tools: Risk Register 35 Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15
36 Risk Tools: Risk Assessment Matrix 36 Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15
37 Risk Tools: Risk Modeling Software Primavera Risk Analysis Post-Mitigation Event Driven Risk Cummulative Distribution Curve 100% $186,479,770 95% $123,811,050 90% $113,128,940 85% $106,079,578 80% $100,151,173 75% $95,544,179 70% $91,316,264 65% $87,371,236 60% $83,748,587 55% $79,801,068 50% $76,312,717 45% $72,851,609 40% $69,264,938 35% $65,737,563 30% $62,081,874 Cumulative Frequency Min ML Max 25% $58,101,199 20% $53,639,916 15% $48,713,291 $50,000,000 $100,000,000 $150,000,000 Total Project Cost 10% $42,896,784 5% $34,766,816 0% $10,454,086 Crystal Ball ML Min Max 37 Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/ The 2012 Williams WMB Companies, Template Inc. All January rights reserved. 1,
38 Risk Reporting: Risk Management Report 38 Presentation name (edit footer in slide master pages) 1/1/15
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